Upon Further Review 2022: Defense vs Nebraska
Substitution Notes: DT rotation featured lots of Graham in the 5-2, and plenty of Benny and Grant rotation even in the 1st Q. DE was Morris and a mix of (in order of snaps) Harrell, Upshaw, Okie, and a drive each for D.Moore and McGregor. LB was Colson and Barrett exclusively until garbage time. Will Johnson got starter snaps at CB with Turner, with Green rotating in for both. Safety was Moore and Moten, who gave up a couple of drives to Quinten Johnson. Here's the roster for the last drive for depth chart purposes: DL Grant, Benny, Rooks, Juice, and Guy. LBs Rolder and Velazquez except one snap for Mi.Pollard. CBs Ger.Green and Kechaun Harris. Perry (probably technically the nickel since it was 5-2 personnel) and Q-Jo at safety.
Formation Notes: Reminder that a parenthetical in an offensive formation is a player covered, and a hyphen is motion. They often motioned WRs to backfield spots so I noted those with the player and then the position he motioned to, examples: "H-F" (slot receiver motions to fullback) or "Z-R" (flanker motions to running back). They also tried a lot of unbalanced formations. I used "TO" for tackle-over, which is when they flip a tackle and a TE, e.g. this is "Pistol FB TO".
Note the guy at the bottom of the formation is a TE and eligible receiver. I called Michigan's reply "46 Bear" but purists point out a Bear front means the nose and both guards are covered so this doesn't count. To me three DL to one side, three LBs to another and a safety (Moore on the top hash) at linebacker level like he's Doug "46" Plank is a 46 Bear.
[After THE JUMP: The shortest show yet.]
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Trips R (H) | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 bdy | Run | F Insert | Colson | 4 | -0.11 | |
Everyone sets up right and they go down the middle, catching M slanting away (RPS-1). Colson(+2) fixes it by dodging the lead blocker and making the stop himself. | ||||||||||||
O29 | 2nd | 6 | Empty 4x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Bubble Screen | Sainristil | 0 | -0.65 |
Neb sets up 4 to the field and M almost overpursues. Sainristil(+2) flies past his blocker and sets an edge at the numbers for a 4-5 yard loss. Colson(-1) needs to be on the other side of this or communicate he's got the edge so Mike can clean up. Morris(+1) flows by with two blockers arrives to clean up and does communicate. Okie(-1, tackling-1) has a shot to clean up but whiffs. Sainristil does it himself. | ||||||||||||
O29 | 3rd | 6 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Okie | 2 press | Pass | 5 | Fade | Turner | 30 | 3.60 |
M brings six on a loopy rush that gets stoned (PR-2, RPS-1). Turner(-2, cov-2) gets crossed by a WR who sold in on a circle route and got physical. | ||||||||||||
M41 | 1st | 10 | Offset Trips 4w | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 fld | PRO | n/a | Bubble/Stretch | Moore | 3 | -0.28 |
Colson blitzing from the slot for a easy read but that means SS is charging down pre-snap while two guys go for the Nk. Moore(tackling-1) charges in but whiffs but productively, sending the WR into where Sainristil(+2) set up an edge and a quickly-arriving Johnson(+0.5) have squeezed the route shut. | ||||||||||||
M38 | 2nd | 7 | Offset TO | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | RPO | Power/Y Seam | Smith | 3 | -0.32 | |
Tackle over is meant to get Moten(+0.5, RPS+1) to lose the TE on run action but he's not fooled. TE's release means nothing to hold the backside. Barrett(+1) notices and goes hard at the puller. Colson is a bit slower but does get by his releaser but it doesn't matter because Smith(+2) rips to the other side of his OL to stuff this. | ||||||||||||
M35 | 3rd | 4 | Gun Trips Bunch | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 2 fld | Penalty | False Start | n/a | -5 | -1.09 | |
Oops. | ||||||||||||
M40 | 3rd | 9 | Gun Wk F | 4-2-5 | Nk Splits | 2 press | Pass | 4 | Sack | Colson | -1 | -1.18 |
Morris(+1, PR+1) is lined up wide and immediately around the LT. This should be sack city but Okie(-1) is also shooting upfield to try to sack alone instead of making sure Purdy stays pocketed, and lets him get outside. Now it's a rollout but RB was chipping and no threat so Colson(+2) flies up to sack, keeping this out of FG range. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 11 min 1st Q. Oh man if the drive the fade connects doesn't get points you in trouble. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O12 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Twins (Y) | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 fld | Run | Wham | Jenkins | 2 | -0.19 | |
They wham Grant(-1), who doesn't expect this but is big so the TE hits him and goes doink. Jenkins(+3) bent back a T. Refs-2 miss an easy call as Moore(+0.5) chucked a cracking WR who then pulled him to the ground. Woulda been declined anyways. | ||||||||||||
O14 | 2nd | 8 | Pistol FB TO | 5-2-4 | 46 Bear | 1 fld | Run | Lead Zone | Benny | 2 | -0.22 | |
Full Bear! Lol what century are we in? Plan here is for the WR to crack a S and the FB get a LB but the Bear (RPS+1) makes that tough and both guys hit Moore, letting Barrett(+2) flow freely into the gap behind the FB who's looking to kick since the WR cracked. RB bounces but right into Benny(+1). Grant(+1) also controlled his block then crossed him to be useful before the bounce. | ||||||||||||
O16 | 3rd | 6 | Pistol FB TO | 5-2-4 | 4-3 Over | 2 off | Pass | 5 | TE Deep Cross | Moten | Inc | -0.15 |
Bring both LBs drop Upshaw. D-Mo(+1) discards the LT but nobody else is close as Benny has a double and Jenkins(-1) flew upfield with no bend on the other edge (which okay he's a DT not a DE). Purdy can move around in that space to find his TE that Moten(-2, cov-2) didn't look up as he dropped. Purdy puts it way behind the TE and Moten drops a gift INT. Hat-2. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 3 min 1st Q. Lucky they sucky. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O24 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Twins | 5-2-4 | 404 Tite | 1 bdy | Run | Dart | Graham | 3 | -0.28 | |
Graham(+2) gets a double, gives ground then times the release of one to swim past the other. He gets the RB's leg and doesn't let go. Barrett(+1) dodges the one that released to help stuff. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 2nd | 7 | Gun 2TE Twins | 5-2-4 | 404 Tite | 1 off | Play-Action | 4 | Rollout Out | Harrell | Inc | -0.53 |
M is slanting the other way (RPS-1) so when Smith(+1) breaks through there's nobody else close vs max pro (PR-1). Harrell(-1, cov-1) didn't get enough depth on his drop under the out so there's a chance this is completed over his leap but not a big one. It goes well over Harrell and the WR can only get one hand on it. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 3rd | 7 | Empty 5w | 4-2-5 | Exotic | 2 bdy | Pass | 4 | TE In | Barrett | 6 | 0.13 |
Smith(+0.5) and Morris(+0.5, PR+1) are collapsing the pocket to maybe speed this up. Barrett(+2, cov+1) has a tough job (RPS-1) with a clearout route under him that he plays perfectly, waiting for the clear then coming down to contest the catch and make a crucial tackle short of the sticks when the TE brings it in anyways (Hat+1). | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. EO1Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O20 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk RB | 5-2-4 | 5-1 Odd | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Comeback | Johnson | Inc | -0.56 |
Barrett and Moore stacked in the slot means blitz and they do, dropping Harrell. RU doesn't recognize (RPS+1, PR+2) and Barrett(-0.5)'s in free but forms up to be an anvil with no hammer. Upshaw(+1) also beat the LT to Barrett's side. Purdy (Hat+1) retreats to 15 yards behind the LOS and throws something almost catchable off his back foot to a guy trying to come back under Johnson(+1, cov+1) who is diving over. WR traps it. | ||||||||||||
O20 | 2nd | 10 | Gun 2TE Twins RB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Penalty | False Start | n/a | -5 | -0.27 | |
Oops. | ||||||||||||
O15 | 2nd | 15 | Offset FB H-Orbit | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 fld | Run | Insert 3-O | Colson | 0 | -0.11 | |
Triple-option that's supposed to work like an RPO, reading the Nk and giving on the Iso if he hangs outside. Moore is flying down (RPS+1) to free Colson(+2) who dodges the FB and tracks down the RB. Graham(+1) held up a double and McGregor(+0.5) set a good edge. | ||||||||||||
O15 | 3rd | 15 | Gun Wk Tight | 4-2-5 | RC Split | 2 press | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Barrett | 12 | 0.24 |
DTs are stunting outside as Morris(+1) draws 3 guys. Okie(+1, PR+1) gets credit for putting the RT on skates and getting held around the head with no call (Refs-2) to save a minus, but also the ONE thing he can't do on this pass rush is get pushed past the QB because the DEs are supposed to be taking the inside. Upshaw(-1) should still have enough angle with the LT coming off Morris late to pay this off but gets widened and Purdy can sneak by. Nobody inside now because DTs were the edge rushers, so Purdy takes off, which I guess is okay because it's 3rd and 15. Johnson(+1) rallies and runs Purdy into Barrett(-1, tackling-1) with 7 yards to spare, MB overpursues and Purdy dives for 4 more. 4th and 3 is still punt here, fortunately. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 12 min 2nd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2TE Twins RB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Play-Action | 4 | Scramble | Graham | 13 | 1.12 |
PA buys time but nobody open (cov+2). Smith(-1, PR+1) is singled and beats the RG to flush Purdy, but is large and can't turn around fast enough to finish the job, results-based charting. Graham(-2) should be there to clean up but gets too far upfield and detaches from the C too late so Purdy can scramble for a 1st. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 1st | 10 | Empty 4w | 5-2-4 | 404 Tite | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Hitch | Turner | Inc | -1.09 |
Neb goes spread with 22 personnel. Turner(-1, cov-1) is playing off so the hitch is open but the WR turns too far inside (Hat-1) and can only knock it down. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 2nd | 10 | Gun Wk RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Play-Action | 4 | PA Out | Q.Johnson | 4 | -0.13 |
Catch M in Cov3 (RPS-1) and for a free 4 yards, Green(+0.5, cov-push) and Q-Jo(+0.5) are both hammering down to keep it to just 4. | ||||||||||||
O42 | 3rd | 6 | Gun Wk Z-In | 4-2-5 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Mesh | Colson | 13 | 2.69 |
M trying an Amoeba, only Morris(+1, PR-1) gets anywhere close even though Upshaw(-1) and Jenkins(-1) are singled. Colson(-2, cov-2) dropped from Edge and doesn't look up the crosser to make this wide open, though M also has two guys playing cone over a deep route. WR tries to hurdle noted non-fool Sainristil(+1, tackling+1) and gets tag-teamed by him and Turner(+0.5) | ||||||||||||
M45 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Ace | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 1 off | Play-Action | 4 | PA Pick | Colson | Inc(+15) | 0.66 |
Upshaw(PR+2) around the LT and might have affected the throw. He also picks up a pretty light roughing the passer but that's how they call it. Colson(+1, cov+1) gets through a pick by the RB and is in position to get the TE down after 2-3 yards. TE slows up for no reason and can't bring it in (Hat-1). | ||||||||||||
M30 | 1st | 10 | Pistol FB TO | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 2 press | Play-Action | 5 | PA Scramble | Smith | 7 | 0.35 |
Harrell(-2, PR-1)'s edge rush is completely wiped out—I hate how bad he is at this. Jenkins(-1) also goes high. Graham(+1) gets off his block and is coming in on the right side to force Purdy out of the resulting clean pocket, but Smith(-1) was fighting left side of the RG and can't get back before Purdy escapes. Why is he going left? Why is the freshman the only guy doing this right? Moten(+1, tackling+1) scoots down to hold this short of the sticks. | ||||||||||||
M23 | 2nd | 3 | Gun Str H-Cross | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Curl | Moten | Inc | -0.59 |
LG jumps early (Refs-1) but that just cues Barrett(+1, PR+1) to fly through untouched by the RB. He's got a sack that Morris(-2) robs him of by going inside instead of being the anvil. Purdy can roll away and throw on target to Palmer (Hat-2) at the sticks under Moten(-1, cov-1) who had to track a crosser across the whole formation, but it's dropped. | ||||||||||||
M23 | 3rd | 3 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Smith | 8 | 0.49 |
AGAIN they lose contain. Morris(-2, PR-2) is the main culprit, flying way upfield to give up the edge, but I understand if he expects Harrell(-0.5) not to get dominated on his pass rush from a wide 9 on the back side. Smith(-1) is slow to replace Morris's lane, gets a little held, and Purdy is able to escape for the first. He slides down awkwardly and goes out for the game. Neck Sharpied. | ||||||||||||
M15 | 1st | 10 | Empty 4w R-Flare | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 press | RPO | QB Power T/Bubble | Barrett | 3 | -0.10 | |
Colson read and M in Cov2 so 5-man box vs 5 (RPS-1). Benny(+2) starts to win that back by whipping the RG. Barrett(+2) cuts under the pulling LT and the two get to Smothers trying to run into Graham(+0.5)'s gap. | ||||||||||||
M12 | 2nd | 7 | Gun Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Near Sack | Graham | 0 | -0.33 |
Graham(+3) swims through the LG and is sacking Smothers as he blindly chucks it to the ground at a pick that Johnson(+2, cov+2) dominated so thoroughly the fade guy was running into the slant. Sainristil runs the ball the length of the field just in case they want to rule fumble. | ||||||||||||
M12 | 3rd | 7 | Gun Trips Z-Cross | 4-2-5 | Exotic | 1 off | Pass | 6 | Yackety Snap | Okie | -7 | -1.54 |
Smothers doinks it (Hat-2) off his donglebees but Okie(+1) gets a star for beating the RT who has to jump on his back to prevent him from getting to the ball first. Refs-2. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(37). 14-3. 4 min 2nd Q. Next drive is a kneeldown and not charted. A dollar says they talked about pass rush lanes at halftime. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O8 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Trips H-F | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 press | Run | Split Zone | Morris | 5 | 0.07 | |
Morris(+2) slides in, discards the kickout and initiates the tackle. Smith(-1) gets planted inside. Colson(-1) is clean but hanging back instead of helping to finish this so the RB can fall forward a bit. | ||||||||||||
O13 | 2nd | 5 | Gun TTB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 2 off | Run | IZ | Smith | 3 | -0.15 | |
And they make up for it. Smith(+1) stacks and sheds the C to force a bounce behind him. The backside of his double sees but doesn't block (Hat-1) Colson(+1) who uses that as his cue to fill in behind Smith and stuff this. RB powers through for a couple. | ||||||||||||
O16 | 3rd | 2 | Gun Trips 4w | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 bdy | Pass | 4 | Dumpoff | Moten | 4 | 0.54 |
Morris(+1, PR+1) is around the LT so Smothers gets rid of it to an RB well in the backfield. Moten(-2, tackling-2) has him lined up then whiffs the tackle to give up the 1st. Sigh. | ||||||||||||
O20 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str H-R | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Under | 1 fld | Run | Counter Trey | Jenkins | 0 | -0.56 | |
No 3rd read and no chance as M slants behind this with a CB blitz (RPS+2) that should kill this but Jenkins(+3) slips through a downblock then redirects into the RB for a TFL. Johnson(+2) came under his WR and dodged the TE to meet him there a second later. Harrell(+1) also came under the kickout. Sorry Nebraska this is our play now. | ||||||||||||
O20 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol Heavy | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Even | 1 off | Run | Duo | Smith | 2 | -0.17 | |
Jenkins(-0.5) tries to get low through a double and the backside guy shoulders him to the ground..interesting response. Smith(+1) shucks his double, his backside guy and Jenkins's frontside guy both go for Barrett, Colson(+0.5) pops Mazi's other guy, and Smith is back in the backfield in a flash to bounce this out to Morris(+1) who held up holds up to his. Another bounce where Sainristil(+0.5) has set up an edge and Moore(+1) came through a TE grabbing his shoulderpad to stick for minimal gain (tackling+1). Sainristil strips after the guy is on the ground. Replay is obvious but they take 5 minutes anyway to get some commercials in (ESPN-3). | ||||||||||||
O22 | 3rd | 8 | Gun Wk Z-Cross | 4-2-5 | RC Split | 2 off | Pass | 5 | Rollout Out | Johnson | 0 | -0.17 |
Megasplit with Okie alone. They roll to the heavy side and the blitz is picked up but Smith(+1, PR+1) comes through. Johnson(+2, cov+2) tracks the Z from presnap to the throw and plunks the guy. Throw was inside (Hat-1) to make that a little easier but this is authoritative and WJ's angle was to the spot it should have gone. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 17-3. 7 min 3rd Q. Despite the score this feels done. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str H-Cross | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Even | 2 bdy | Play-Action | n/a | PA Flood | D.Moore | 0 | -0.70 |
Halve the field and roll and D-Mo(+2, PR+1) steps down with PA then races outside to trap Smothers against the sideline. Nobody's open (cov+3) the whole way so he chucks it OOB. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 10 | Offset TTB | 4-2-5 | 5-2 Odd | 1 bdy | Run | Iso | Harrell | 5 | 0.04 | |
This works like a bash on the DE. M is pinching (RPS-1) which gets Jenkins(+1) in the backfield to harass. Harrell(+1) gets bopped by the TE but manages to stay in his gap and initiate the tackle. Colson(-1) set up on the wrong side of a TE trying to pin him inside but dodges out of the way at the last second. Green(+0.5) came down to help Harrell. EO3Q. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 3rd | 5 | Gun Wk R-Z | 4-2-5 | RC Wide | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Slant | Johnson | 6 | 1.59 |
Oh man this should have been a 65-yard TD as M busts big time (cov-4). RB motions outside, Colson follows and Sainristil(-1) sends him back. Sainristil is over the H but blitzing and Colson(-2) is nowhere near, just covering some grass in the hole. Smith(+1, PR+2) and Okie(+1) save the day by getting instant pressure so Smothers never sees his open guy, throws the slant under Johnson(-1) and connects. Announcers(-2) don't notice because they're obsessing over a fan who was yawning. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 1st | 10 | Pistol FB TO | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 1 off | n/a | Yackety Snap | n/a | -3 | -1.49 | |
Oops. Hat-2. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 2nd | 13 | Pistol FB TO | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Run | RB Draw Iso | Barrett | 8 | 0.40 | |
RPS-1 as M is blitzing Colston. Barrett(-1) doesn't catch the insert and ends up wrongsided. Moore(+1, tackling+1) wraps up where Barrett could have. M calls TO. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 3rd | 6 | Empty 5w | 4-2-5 | Exotic | 1 bdy | Pass | 5 | H In | Sainristil | 0 | -0.61 |
Smith(+2, PR+2) comes through the LG and gets his hand in the way of the pass. Looked good under Sainristil(-1, cov-1) playing soft but WR drops it (Hat-2) and Moore nearly intercepts. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 24-3. 13 min 4th Q. In another universe Neb connects on that, M fumbles it out of the endzone, and Nebraska has the ball down 24-10. Instead it's 31-3, backups are in, and we're turning off RPS. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O21 | 1st | 10 | Gun TTB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Even | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Out | Sainristil | 8 | 0.82 |
CB blitz on the backside is lackadaisical. Sainristil(-1, cov-1) lets this WR get too far outside and can't contest. | ||||||||||||
O29 | 2nd | 2 | Gun TTB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Even | 2 bdy | Run | Iso | Graham | 1 | -0.83 | |
Graham(+3, tackling+2) stands up his blocker inside, stacks and sheds after the lead blocker goes by, and tackles sideways to keep this short of the 1st down. Moore(+1) was pointing at this gap before the snap and attacked it through the lead blocker, so if Graham doesn't make the play the guy it was running at has it. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 3rd | 1 | Offset Trips | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 2 press | RPO | Down T/Bubble | Jenkins | 0 | -0.59 | |
LT moves (Refs-1) but they miss it. Neb also forgets to block Jenkins. Grant(+2, tackling+1) throws his blocker into the backfield so hard the guy decides he should block Jenkins after all. Barrett(+1) found his way into the backfield to help. Graham(-1) was stood up and walked out so there was room if Grant doesn't destroy this. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 4th | 1 | Goal | 6-2-3 | Goal | n/a | Run | QB Sneak | Grant | 1 | 1.32 | |
They get it. | ||||||||||||
O31 | 1st | 10 | Offset Ace (Y) | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 press | Pass | 5 | Sack | Graham | -4 | -1.33 |
Neb has 8 min on the LOS and covered TE goes downfield (Refs-2). They're running mesh but Jenkins(+2, PR+3) spins off his G and Graham(+2) chucks his G to finish as Jenkins is pushed by Smothers. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 2nd | 14 | Offset Trips | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | PRO | n/a | Bubble/Down T | Rolder | -3 | -0.35 |
Looks like a presnap decision. Smothers(Hat-3) throws it short and the WR in a hoodie catches it on his knee 3 yards deep. Oops. Not charted. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 3rd | 17 | Pistol FB TO | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Sack, basically | Jenkins | 1 | -0.06 |
DTs stunt, Morris(+1, PR+2) puts the RT on skates and forces Smothers to pull it down when he's about to throw, Upshaw(+1) spins off his block to prevent a scramble, Okie(+0.5) and Jenkins(+0.5) rally to clean up but QB falls over the LOS so it's not officially a sack. Upshaw also takes out Morris's leg at the end. If we lose that guy because he was in for this play... | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 31-3. 5 min 4th Q. ESPN crew is ripping M for playoff propaganda purposes and next drive is 3 runs under a minute left so we're done here. |
What does this mean for The Game?
You're not supposed to do that until the end.
What else is there?
We can talk about Saturday's game.
Is there anything in Saturday's game that is relevant to The Game?
Yes.
And that is?
Please forgive me if we get the negative part of a largely positive day out of the way first, but I am worried about the pass rush. Since the Huskers were basically practice, Michigan used the opportunity to try rushing four with their four starters. The results were a complete mess. That link goes to the Neck Sharpies on this, which was a carve-out of a section that was dominating this piece when it started. To summarize, there were three main issues that cropped up in this game:
1. Some of our guys are just not good edge rushers. Jaylen Harrell is not built for it. Kris Jenkins, who gets asked to rush sometimes when 5-2 personnel catch a spread formation, rushes like he's a DT. Taylor Upshaw has his limitations.
2. Everyone wants to be the hammer, nobody is acting like the anvil. Morris and Okie and Barrett all attack like they have to do it themselves so nobody's setting up his teammates. This one was the most frustrating:
Morris is Michigan's most consistent pass-rusher and he beats the tackle here, then runs into Barrett while gunning for the sack while Purdy rolls away from danger. The other guys aren't anvil'ing for Morris either.
3. Guys aren't staying in their rush lanes. The reason this game wasn't a shutout was the one drive when Purdy kept scrambling. Part of that is playing a true freshman at DT. Graham has to see where Smith is attacking and make him right; instead the kid is fighting upfield and towards the hashes.
#55 the bottom DT
It's more of a concern that the guy Graham is learning from mades this same mistake a few snaps later:
#58 the nose
Michigan was lucky that another blown contain was on 3rd and super-long, and the resulting 4th and short was still in don't-go-for-it territory:
In this case the DTs were looping and it was up to the DEs to be inside. Morris has three guys occupied so he's fine, but Okie getting pushed past the QB is inexcusable, except I excused him for getting held. I probably should not have. The inside is his. Spin off. Stop. Shove. You gotta do whatever it takes. Here, watch Upshaw:
#91 the DT on top
Okay, don't injure Mike Morris with 6 minutes to go in a 31-3 game, but the rest of it do. Upshaw is Michigan's most responsible lineman. I bet you a dollar this is why Okie hasn't passed him. As for the younger guys, it's only a matter of time before Derrick Moore is a star.
But with a true freshman I'm sure whatever development issues Okie has go double or triple for D-Mo. I think the hammer/anvil piece and the rush lanes can get cleaned up if they put some focus on it. The talent is the talent.
Please tell me you're not knocking the talent on an elite defense that just crushed another comer.
No but I can no longer avoid one of the guys getting a cyan on the FFFF chart. People are going to take this badly I'm sure, but Jaylen Harrell hasn't won a pass rushing rep since Iowa, whose tackles we now know will let anybody through. This was his third negative day this season, along with MSU and Maryland, and he's been consistently scoring well below the other edges on plenty of volume. His one good day against a team with a pulse was Penn State, because Harrell was good at beat their zone reads. If we play another team that plays like that, by all means have this guy in there.
Harrell is also still a plus run defender despite being a lot smaller than ideal for his position.
#32 the edge on the top
But when the competition level rises this asset diminishes to a negative. It's a matter of size and length--I don't have the measurements for these battles, but watching OTs corral him and Harrell's inability to get unstuck are case studies for why NFL teams care so much (I'd argue too much) about those measurements. Some rushers get around their measurables by being stronger, faster, or more agile, but Harrell isn't that.
So why are they playing him? Do you know more than the coaches?
The explanation for Harrell starting over the kids still is also pretty simple: he's the one Edge who can play linebacker well enough to activate Barrett and Colson blitzes with Amoeba fronts. Everybody's had their chances to drop into coverage, but they never let the other guys do more than take away a flat. I think they'll trust Harrell on a TE or in a zone without babysitting. He's not great at this; if you were to judge that aspect of his game as if he was a true linebacker it would not do. But he's on the true linebacker spectrum, which is well more than you can say about Okie, McGregor, or D.Moore. He could start there for MSU, let's say.
Why is being an MSU-caliber linebacker at Edge such an asset that he's starting on a Michigan-caliber defense? I am workshopping a theory that playing Harrell—or specifically having his versatility on the field—is a contributing factor in the rise of Michael Barrett.
Oh, so now you love the linebackers!
I think I should show you the numbers.
Alright show your hater chart.
Uh, I should be clear that "Hater" is extremely relative in that this complete dismantling of a bad team wasn't as impressive as previous dismantlings.
Defensive Line | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Mazi Smith | 33 | 9.5 | 4 | +5.5 | Got out of his lane, ate doubles, wrecked stuff. |
Kris Jenkins | 32 | 9.5 | 3.5 | +6 | Wrecked stuff, not a defensive end though. |
Mason Graham | 19 | 12.5 | 3 | +9.5 | Total carnage. Lane integrity an issue. |
Rayshaun Benny | 9 | 3 | 0 | +3 | Kinda ridiculous. |
Kenneth Grant | 11 | 3 | 1 | +2 | Threw a man. |
Michael Morris | 32 | 9.5 | 4 | +5.5 | Himself, want him to be an anvil sometimes. |
Jaylen Harrell | 22 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | Cannot pass rush, not in for enough runs to matter there. |
Eyabi Okie | 18 | 3.5 | 2 | +1.5 | Meh day. |
Derrick Moore | 6 | 3 | 0 | +3 | Impactful few snaps. |
Taylor Upshaw | 18 | 2 | 2 | - | Doesn't screw up, doesn't chart much. |
Braiden McGregor | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | +0.5 | Unimpactful few snaps. |
TOTAL | 213 | 58 | 23 | +35 | My pass rush concerns are lessened by the carnage. |
Linebacker | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Junior Colson | 39 | 8.5 | 7 | +1.5 | Still managing to hide his negatives well. |
Nikhai Hill-Green | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Michael Barrett | 46 | 10 | 2.5 | +7.5 | Another very good day. Is he tracking to stardom? |
Kalel Mullings | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Jimmy Rolder | 10 | 0 | 0 | - | DNC |
TOTAL | 98 | 18.5 | 9.5 | +9 | I am encouraged. Do I believe it? |
Secondary | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
DJ Turner | 38 | 0.5 | 3 | -2.5 | Is the star getting wobbly? |
Mike Sainristil | 30 | 5.5 | 3 | +2.5 | Not his best day, but he's no fool either. |
Gemon Green | 19 | 1 | 0 | +1 | Let the kid play. |
Will Johnson | 36 | 8.5 | 1 | +7.5 | The kid can play! |
Rod Moore | 45 | 3.5 | 0 | +3.5 | Star watch is back on. |
Makari Paige | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
RJ Moten | 36 | 1.5 | 5 | -3.5 | Eesh. Cyan watch begins. |
Quinten Johnson | 15 | 0.5 | 0 | +0.5 | Quiet and boring is good. |
TOTAL | 228 | 21 | 12 | +9 | Only one pass deep, WJ was balling out. |
Metrics | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes | |
Pressure | 21 | 7 | 51% | Getting in backfield is easy. Catching the QB an issue. | |
Coverage | 12 | 11 | +1 | Played off and disinterested. | |
Tackling | 7 | 5 | +2 | One big bust. Lots of dinks underneath saved by Hat. | |
RPS | 6 | 8 | -2 | Coordinators did some stuff early then called it a night. | |
Hat Tip | 2 | 17 | -15 | Nebraska lost a lot of this game all on their own. |
So you were saying about Barrett…
That Harrell lets you access him. Harrell's main role on this team—though he plays on any down—is the swingman of their heavy defense. When opponents put two TEs on the field Michigan tends to answer with their 5-2 instead of the 4-3 that most teams use or true 3-4 that non-4-3 teams deploy. The 5-2 has three true DTs on the field, plus Mike Morris. Harrell as the fifth man is important because lots of teams will just use their TEs like receivers.
If both of your edges are Mike Morris types, you've got a problem, because you want to change your front to a nickel but that's going to ask one of your edges to cover a tight end in space. Harrell's got so much linebacker DNA that it's no problem. Okie I'm guessing would not be so natural.
And Barrett?
I'm getting to that. Because Michigan's defense can morph if needed, they can deploy an extra tackle instead of a linebacker, and that in turn can keep linemen from getting to Barrett. Now I don't want to overstate this—the guy is up near 230 pounds which is well on the curve for the position. But Barrett still looks and plays very much like a Viper, and you don't want to take that away from him.
Nebraska kept using this Tackle Over* formation with a TE lined up as a fullback—real 1970s stuff. Michigan answered with something like the old 46 defense, with SS Rod Moore lined up like a linebacker (top hash) like the defense's numbersake, #46 Doug Plank. The other linebacker, the one on the bottom, is Michael Barrett. Watch him closely.
#23 LB in the middle of the field
Barrett doesn't make the tackle, but he's able to flow cleanly to take away the gap after the lead blocker's already gone through and forces the RB to cut into the protected edge. All that beef on the frontside keeps the blockers from having any angle to stop Barrett, who gets a +2. There were a handful of plays like this where Barrett got help dodging the guy earmarked for him or fly in untouched. The fact that he's activating goes to the amount of experience he's piled up this year.
Not everything Barrett did was set up by a DT. This was a similar setup to the dagger TD that Florida scored against us Harbaugh's first year. The RPO drew Colson towards it, and with both safeties high Michigan only has 5 guys for 5 OL and a QB. Barrett spots the guy assigned to him and shoots through him to stop the play before it gets out of the backfield.
#23 the LB on the bottom hash
Barrett got moved around a bunch early in his career, and the transition from Viper meant having to unlearn all kinds of responses that he'd trained into his subconscious. Coming out the other side, he's rounding into a good linebacker, period. I really hope we get him to use his COVID year.
* [Tackle-over means the guy on the bottom is a tight end who's swapped spots with an OT on the top of the formation. The TE on the bottom is still an eligible receiver.]
I see you found a way to hate on Junior Colson even if he wasn't responsible for any of the five events we can remember from this game.
Yeah, so Colson might have a case in this one that his negatives weren't really his.
We'll start with this –2. The pressure was part of the reason why the Huskers' third-string QB didn't get to his second read (he did convert to his first). But count the Michigan players on screen before the play just to assure yourself there isn't a safety you can't see, then hit play and watch the receiver in the slot. Colson is #25, the LB who follows the RB outside then gets sent back to the middle.
Yeeeeeesh. That started when Colson followed the running back outside and then was sent back in by Sainristil, the guy over that slot receiver, who must have known he was blitzing. Somebody didn't get the check here. I don't actually think that slot should be Colson's responsibility. If I had to guess, Michigan had a weird blitz on and didn't plan a call for 5-wide into it. Had they, it's doubtful the answer would be to have the MLB play high safety over a slot receiver. Colson's the one who let the guy by, and that deserves a –2, but that's just half of the (potential) bust.
I also held the open crosser on 3rd & 6 against Colson. You do remember this play, but not as the open crosser on 3rd & 6.
See? You remember now. There are two DBs over the receiver who went vertical to that side, and we didn't see an all-22 of this after because these were the last announcers in the world who were going to let football get in the way of a good nutshot discussion. The other three minuses were run game issues where he hung back watching or got to the wrong side. Linebacking is hard stuff.
On the other hand?
ON THE OTHER HAND, Colson is starting to do some really linebackerish linebacker things that are not just "has talent, will travel." Here he dodges a lead blocker to get into the backfield and clean up after Smith has dented the line.
#25 the middle linebacker
Here he's jetting into the backfield at Bush speed past a lead blocker while his DT keeps the OL from getting off the line of scrimmage.
#25 the middle linebacker
He flies up from depth to turn a rollout throwaway into a sack.
#25 the middle linebacker
Like Barrett, though not to the same degree, the light is starting to go on. When Colson sees it he jumps on it, and look how dang fast he moves when he jumps on it. The total is starting to pass where Josh Ross was at the end of last year, and the trajectory is up. I wanted Colson to be further along than this, and went in really hoping I'd get to announce he's out the other side of his youth. Coming out consistently positive against an outfit that was designed by Scott Frost and used all sorts of weird formations is another step forward.
Kalel Mullings didn't play again, and Jimmy Rolder only showed late, so Barrett and Colson are it. To war.
Do you have any clips where I'm not also watching the DTs do something awesome?
Uh, not this game. I gave you my Mazi Smith contain complaint above so now we can just marvel at how much damage he's doing to the offense's plans. Taking on doubles and shedding them to initiate the tackle is just normal behavior for Smith these days.
#58 the top DT
The big bust never gets to that read because Smith blew up the inside of the line. Meanwhile Jenkins is taking advantage of his occasion single-blocks to explode into the backfield. This Counter Trey dies before it gets out of the backfield because Jenkins's slant takes him past a downblock attempt, and then he has the agility to redirect into the RB. Michigan has a corner blitz on to kill this, and when Johnson arrives to pay that off he finds Jenkins already in control of the objective.
#94 the DT above the hash
This wham block attempt on Grant goes off (even if Grant doesn't move much) because Jenkins put his OL in the backfield, put his arm out, and caught the running back.
#94 the top DT
And when I say Jenkins isn't a great pass-rusher on the edge, I mean he's not a defensive end who can speed rush a tackle. As an interior rusher his agility and balance are weaponized, and his normal-sized arms are able to help him in ways they can't against the guys outside.
#94 DT on the top
And then there's the kid. He's the bottom DT on the play above, and just as much a part of it. Mason Graham had the best game of any of them, to be honest. I still instinctively clip Graham when he does something cool even though the library is already well stocked for preview purposes. If I limited myself to just the +2s however we're still going to have a section to rival the length of any of Alex's foe film dangermen. It's just…okay you be the judge which one I should leave out here.
Option 1: When Graham took on a double, waited until the right moment when one of them was about to release, then violently shed it to grab the RB himself.
Well okay, if that's your choice then you can't keep the one where he burrows through a guard then pulls Smothers under like the Death Star trash compactor monster.
Oh that's your pick? Then I guess you aren't interested in the time Graham stuffed a 2nd & short run all by himself by planting his blocker behind the line of scrimmage, throwing him off, and popping a hard-charging RB sideways when he wasn't looking or ready to prevent his momentum from being halted short of the line to gain.
Yes this is decreasing the lifespan of your scroll wheel. I am not sorry.
Is that it for the tackles then?
Not remotely. We haven't even gotten to Rayshaun Benny and Kenneth Grant yet. Benny featured already in some of those plays with Barrett. But Grant is in one of those too. And yes, this is still the 1st quarter.
DT #26 on top and NT #78 in the middle.
Grant also chucked a guy into the backfield so hard the dude decided he should do something about routine backfield denizen Kris Jenkins instead:
#78 the nose
For those counting, that's five defensive tackles with multiple +2 events in this short game. Cam Goode didn't play in this one but showed out against Rutgers. And before you say that won't work against Ohio State, the one issue the Buckeyes have been having on offense this year is the highly rated tackles they play at guard are struggling in the running game (because they're there to be pass protectors). They didn't get Slade when they played MSU so Michigan's tackles should be several runs better than anything they've faced this year. They might not be Hutchinson-Ojabo disruptive, but the DTs were just okay last year, so this year's make up a good portion of what was lost.
How is there so much film on the DTs from this game?
Nebraska sorta…went at them.
No!
Yeah. It was weird.
Why would they do that?
First off, that's the design. Like the 2016 team front, Michigan's edges are taught to hold everything inside and force it back to the tackles. The only plays that escape out the edge these days are QB rollouts. But it was also by choice. Nebraska had no hope of passing downfield, especially once Purdy went out near the end of the first half. Instead it was a bunch of frippery with the running game. They had covered formations, tackle-over, receivers motioning to backfield positions, heavy personnel on 2nd & 10. They also tried running Michigan's plays, which was weird considering those tend to emphasize interior OL blocks versus DTs. Duo (the Harbaugh play of Harbaugh plays) against Smith and Jenkins is definitely a choice you can make.
I have more sympathy for trying to run Counter Trey, even though that's a Michigan thing now too, because that was the bread and butter of Tom Osborne, and if you can't run Trey you don't deserve to wear the sans serif N.
Indeed. So you got nothing on the secondary? What about the long pass they gave up?
Uh, that was on Turner.
The annoying thing was it happened on 3rd and long, and it was early in the game so we had to wonder if this is how they get you. It didn't happen again, but it's going to keep happening when they show man press on 3rd and long because it's been so productive. I'm not ripping away his star for that—it's just one event—but it would be nice if he could be moved back to field corner or put on smaller faster guys. The biglargehuge types are getting these with too great a frequency, and every time when you go back to look it seems to just be a size issue. Even this one gets hairy when contact is made and Turner gets crossed up on his feet.
It did lead to a Sklars Hot Take™ that Will Johnson is Michigan's best cornerback. He's not, but he was in this game. Smothers never has a chance to get this ball out, but it was supposed to go to one or the other side of the same slant/fade combo that Rutgers hit us with twice last week. Johnson doesn't play it soft this time.
#2 the CB on the bottom
That dude just wants to break outside and there's a 6-3 cornerback in the way until he's literally running into the guy he was supposed to be setting a pick for. This is part of a pattern of Johnson using his size to move guys while running their routes for them. The freshman also had to track this route across the whole formation, dodging plenty of traffic, and arriving exactly on time.
Jenkins beat Johnson to the punch on the attempted Counter Trey, but had this play not been blown up by the DT doing something ridiculous it would have been blown up by the CB executing a tricky blitz.
That's on top of several passes where Johnson seemed to be in good position when Purdy escaped a hammer/hammer pass rush.
It wasn't all roses; Johnson was the outside CB on the major bust—I don't think that was his man, but if Michigan wasn't prepared for five-wide on their nickel blitz, a likely cause is having a true freshman cornerback in the coverage. But we're at the point now where Marlin and Woodson were starting, and Johnson seems to be operating on the same level I remember from 2001 and 1995. As advertised.
Did they try to edge Mike Sainristil this game?
They did.
Did it work out for them?
Nope.
The readers are not going to let you use that as his nickname.
It's too bad because it was fun yelling this that in the stadium when a guy tried to hurdle him.
Did that work out for him?
[Barron]
See?
Nope.
Philistines.
Rod Moore. We were looking for signs that he was back on track to stardom after the bye. Any updates?
He didn't get to do much but when he was on screen he popped. This was just a +1 but I really liked how he came through a tight end on the play that we momentarily thought they fumbled.
#19 the safety on the 32 below the hash
He didn't get to do anything wild, but he was around the football, and authoritive in tackling when they let it get to him. It's not enough for a star after playing Nebraska. On track.
What's going on with RJ Moten?
He started a second straight week with Makari Paige out. I was really hopeful for Moten this season, and he wasn't bad (or on screen much) earlier in the year, but since getting passed the few Moten events keep trending negative. He could be working through something or going through something—that's not in the purview of this site. One of Nebraska's 3rd down conversions was on Moten flat-out whiffing a tackle on an RB who was lined up for a TFL.
He also got caught covering grass, which is a phrase I wish we weren't using so much this year. His almost interception a) should have been an interception, and b) was thrown behind an open receiver.
But these are two events, and with safeties not being on screen is usually a sign you're in the right spot. He was 100% cleared of any wrongdoing on the one fade to Turner, since that was a single-high coverage, where the CB's only friend outside is the sideline. He's on cyan watch, but I suspect he won't get the designation.
How is it we played Nebraska and neither Michael Barrett nor Blake Corum vomited?
The guest who requested it was a no-show.
How many times did you use the name Smothers in this article?
As many as I could. Why are you asking inane questions that have nothing to do with the football game?
I thought I was setting you up for the obligatory Mark Jones/RG3 complaining section.
Something about the Pathfinder Mission to Mars? Debut of the show Red vs. Blue? No that was 2003. Just hold on I'll get it.
Mark Jones clearly doesn't give a shit about football anymore but this game was probably one of the most boring of the year so whatever. I do wonder if RGIII gets drawn into the whole bro-cast thing by Jones. The far more annoying thing was the long commercial breaks right on top of each other.
Heroes?
Michael Barrett, Will Johnson, and Mason Graham. Despite some pass rush issues Smith/Jenkins/Morris continued to be pretty awesome overall. Kenneth Grant and Rayshaun Benny rotated with the starters without a drop-off.
Maybe not so heroic?
Jaylen Harrell, RJ Moten, the pass rush in general, DJ Turner the one time he was targeted, Nebraska.
What does it mean for Illinois THE GAME?
Gotta get those passing lanes cleaned up. Starts with the ends not overrunning the QB, extends to the DTs reacting to what's in front of them. Extra drills this week.
Gotta pay off the pass rushes when you win them. Time to figure out a plan, whether it's Amoeba and Morris is your anvil, or Upshaw and Morris your hammer, or Okie in the starting lineup, or having the DEs play contain and trusting the DTs to collapse the pocket.
Gotta hand it to Taylor Upshaw. Has raised The Taylor Upshaw Line past the Rondell Biggs Line. If you want to play over him, you'd better be as responsible as he is.
Gotta not give up fades on 3rd and long. Maybe that's something that can be Will Johnson's job now?
Will Johnson is ready to work. Got some run as Green was working his way back. Looks ready to get an equal rotation with the starters.
No NHG no problem. Except they still don't have viable depth. Barrett is all the way there: a good linebacker. Colson's making plays even if he's also still blowing them here and there. Using DTs to soak up linemen helps them maximize these guys.
Apologies to Cam Goode for the depth chart. We said it was Smith & Jenkins and freshman, not that the freshman wouldn't be bonkers. Jenkins is an upgrade on Hinton and probably isn't leaving as early. Mason Graham could be the best DT in the Big Ten as soon as next year. Benny and Grant are going to be stars themselves. Even Rooks looks good.
Hurdle fools and fools only. By now you should know Mike Sainristil isn't one.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
RG3 was okay as a broadcaster, not horrible, not Gus Johnson either, but I did love his call on one of the hurdle replays. "Right in the gggggg.....I'm just not gonna go there."
November 16th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
RG3 seemed to be enjoying himself in a game where the 30-point favorite spent three, maybe four, hours drowning a ferret in a bathtub. Adjusting for the context, I think he did pretty well.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
Agreed. If it's a big game like UM-OSU, I don't want RG3 near the stadium. However, if it's a mismatch, the game can use some of his off-the-wall comments. He comes across as a nice guy.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Dude, just stop. The ferrets dead.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
As I commented during the game, I thought RG3 was better than his earlier stint with a Michigan game. He seemed less determined to force "interesting" comments and trusted that his normal voice / approach would be interesting, which I think it was.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
I was more impressed by RGIII this game than others.
There were 3 or more instances where Jones clearly tried to bait RGIII into Wacky Shenanigans (TM), and RGIII always made a pretty tame statement and smoothly returned to something more game-relevant.
Someone probably gave RGIII a heads-up that his coworker was trying to give him enough rope to hang himself.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
Also, I sense a learning curve. Eager to prove himself the earlier game, he seems more naturally himself this game.
November 16th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
We’re at a great point in the program if our initial reaction to defensive UFR is RG III’s commentary.
can’t wait to crush the soul of the Buckeyes on a cool, wet Saturday afternoon with 45 possession minutes and 700 ground yards just to hear about “the weather.”
2022…the season that built a dome in Columbus.
soft, weak, finesse team w one outstanding receiver and shit else that looks good by comparison to an awful B1G.
LFG
November 16th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
It's pretty nice having a somewhat meh day against an overmatched opponent and still decently crushing. Here's hoping this game and the Illinois game really sharpen the guys up for The Game.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Hurdle fools and fools only. By now you should know Mike Sainristil isn't one.
Nope.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
That edge play he split a double-team. (Maybe a bust? Seth didn't Hat it though. . .) I don't think I've ever seen a slot corner eat a double, and it still didn't work.
He does his job so well, I figured he wasn't fool-hurdled because he went up against Haskins in practice. Then I realized, "Wait, Sainristil was on offense last season!"
November 16th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
As mentioned on the pod, the DL really suffered from Ojabo going bonkers in 2021 and essentially being a 1 and done. Most times their DE's are two anchors, and their pure edge rushers are a combo of a very talented FCS transfer that arrived mid-August and a guy who is still slowly coming back from major ACL surgery in HS.
2023's DL (expecting Morris and Mazi to go to the NFL, Upshaw graduating)
Anchor- Derrick Moore, TJ Guy
DT- Kris Jenkins, Rayshaun Benny, George Rooks
DT- Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant
WDE- Okie (maybe?), McGregor, Harrell (opponent-dependent)
Also adding 2 talented edge freshmen in Etta & Acheampong (ACL probably redshirt) with maybe flipping Rod Pierce from Wisconsin at DT.
I think for the DL it is, for lack of a better term, a "pass-rush stop-gap year" from 2021 (elite), 2022 (good not elite), 2023 (back to elite). If they can maintain the pieces in place for 2023 that DL is 2016 levels of talent and depth.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
But here’s what scares me about this year. I get 2018 OSU flashbacks all the time and Haskins sitting clean in that pocket. if we don’t get pressure on stroud next Saturday will we see 2018 all over again?
November 16th, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
That game was 24-19 at half...i wouldn't be miserable if that happened, although I wouldn't be thrilled we gave up 24 in a half.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
"Suffered."
Good reminder that the DL questions that were out there a couple of years ago have been answered emphatically. And the pass rush issue exists because they did *too good of a job* acquiring and developing a guy.
Which resulted in a two-headed monster that buried Ohio State's "unstoppable" 2021 offense under the Ann Arbor snow.
Which is a trade I make 100 times out of 100.
November 17th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
That starting DL is a really, really good pass rushing DL.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
Can someone explain to me the benefit of orbital motion pre snap with a wr where they stop 3-4 yards behind the tailback and you run with the tailback? Seems to me you're taking away a stress point for the defense in exchange for the MLB and OLBs having easier reads on run plays. (I.e., I see no benefit in this particular move).
Nebraska did it a couple times and I can understand the orbital motion if you keep the wr moving across the formation or u turn, but just having them motion and stop... I dunno.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
1. Motion reveals coverage. Who moves and how will tell you things about the defense's coverage.
2. Motion disguises the playcall. One of these instances Nebraska was running a triple-option, but until a second before the snap the defense isn't even thinking about multiple threats out of the backfield.
3. Momentum and Counter action. The defense is reacting to the motion, so they're naturally behind and making up for it by hammering the accelerator. If you have your motion guy suddenly stop and then snap the ball, the defender has to counter his own momentum to get back in the play.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
I am officially concerned about Turner
November 16th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
I was sitting in the corner of the north endzone and watched the initial fade route over DJ Turner come straight down the sideline. You can see it in the clips that Turner stumbles and crosses his feet, which allows the receiver to get some separation and make the catch.
Seth's (and your) concern seems to be that Turner misplayed the route as the receiver broke back outside. From my perspective, Turner did not mess up. I saw him slip on the wet turf right when the receiver came out of his first break as Turner tried to flip his hips and run. His foot did not plant the way he expected, so he had to hold up, recover his center of gravity, then turn and run. That slip, not a bad coverage decision, caused him to cross his feet.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
I am much more concerned about Colson being forced into coverage all game against OSU.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
Some interesting stats related to D-line pressure...
Sacks per game:
2.43 (2021)
3.10 (2022)
Tackles for loss per game:
5.07 (2021)
5.90 (2022)
Rushing yards allowed per game:
126.43 (2021)
72.70 (2022)
Passing yards allowed per game:
204.40 (2021)
160.1 (2022)
This year, opponents are getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage more. They're also passing and rushing for far fewer yards overall. If QBs and RBs are generally finding less success than a year ago (when we had a great d-line and won the B1G), I'm not losing any sleep.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
I do think there was a lot of addition by subtraction. Swap out Vincent Gray for Will Johnson, Donovan Jeter/Chris Hinton/Julius Welschof for Mason Graham/Rayshaun Benny/Kenneth Grant while Kris Jenkins moves to starter the improved depth this FR class provided is insane.
The defense is most definitely better than 2021wholistically. In terms of consistent edge rushers, that is the one hole of the 2022 defense. If Ojabo was the WDE on this DL he may have broken Aidan's record.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
But unless the weather is really awful and severely limits passing, whether or not they can consistently pressure Stroud may decide the game, and it’s there where the difference between the 2021 and 2022 defenses may matter most. Even though the total number of sacks is about the same this year, the QB pressure hasn’t been as consistent.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
The sack numbers are inflated by playing some of the worst OTs in the country.
The passing numbers are deflated by playing some of the worst QBs in the country.
The run D is legit, but the pass rush is loaded with cheese stats.
And I mean, the difference in conclusion based on the depth of analysis is why MGoBlog exists. If you're going to spew unadjusted drunk-in-the-bar stats to refute hours of combing through game tape, this site may not be your jam.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
Your condescension is much appreciated, Arthur.
Obviously, a 5-minute visit to a stats page is not superior to the thorough analysis provided by Mgoblog authors.
Yes, this year's stats are from a weaker schedule than last year, but 10 games worth of data (4 of them against above-average offenses) suggests the stats have some value which some may find interesting.
You make some fair points, but if you perceive the sharing of data for the sake of counterpoint and discussion as 'spewing drunk-in-the-bar stats', this site may not be your jam.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
Countering exhaustive research with five minutes of Google is not discussion; it is credibility fraud of the sort that's way too pervasive on the Internet. It's OK to be wrong -- hell, I'm no expert so every time I post a comment or diary I'm sticking my neck out there. Also, no one expects every comment backed by hours of research. The important thing is perspective. The crime here is trying to come off as a chin-stroking "you make some fair points" Smart Guy by contrasting Seth's work with "interesting stats" as if what you did and what he did are in any way comparable. He wrote an entire separate Neck Sharpies on UM's pass rush issues and linked to it in his UFR summary, and you expect me to hold what you did in what regard now?
If MGoBlog's analysis and your quick numbers don't add up, weigh the difference in methodology and show it some respect. I.e., it's on you to first question what you have -- not smugly act like a quick Googling has comparable validity to UFR. Something like, "I compared our defensive stats to last year and our sack rate is up; there's a reason for this, right?" To which someone probably would've helpfully replied, "Seven sacks against Colorado State."
So. FWIW, the "appreciated" condescension isn't looking down on you; it's merely what you earned for your effort & attitude. I don't think it's a given I'm any smarter than you. For all I know, you might have a razor-sharp brain. Problem is, it's genuinely hard to tell if you're conspicuously not using it. You want a discussion, I'm happy to dance, but then show us what you really got next time. Throw a tomato at hours of rigor and all I'll do is call that out.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:27 PM ^
I'm not sure how you got the idea that I was claiming that posting a few stats is comparable to what Seth produces or that I was disparaging his (consistently excellent) work in any way.
Some may find year-over-year defensive stats interesting or relevant. You apparently consider it "fraud" that should be suppressed. To each their own, I guess.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
The pass rush problem that Seth identifies could be 'real' or it could be a case of staring at something which magnifies it and creates the perception of a problem. I'm not football savvy enough to know the difference and as I wrote in response to yesterday's Neck Sharpies post I appreciate the education.
I continue to be optimistic about our development and preparation for The Game. The defense is currently #1 in the country by some measures and regardless of what the real number is, they have WAY overperformed this year vs. expectations.
Let's ride Michael Barrett and Will Johnson's momentum into and beyond Illinois and then show up in Columbus ready to destroy those guys. Go Blue!
November 16th, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
Thanks for doing this Seth! Such a tall task and you knock it out of the park every time.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
Since you broke open the discussion of The Game, I’ll for it. Seth - any value in playing Turner at nickel for the game and rolling with Johnson and Green as outside CBs? Wilson and Olave were both ~6ft and they’ve now been replaced by Fleming and Harrison who are both 3-4 inches taller. I’m far more concerned about this being a jump ball contest (which OSU will be content to play all day) than a track meet.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
We're probably going to see a lot of dime against OSU -- we're going to need every one of Turner, Green, Johnson, and Sainristil to match their 00 personnel. But yeah I'd like to see Green and Johnson outside, which naturally puts Sainristil and Turner on the slots.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
I would love to see Michigan in dime all day, but we won't because OSU runs 12 more than they do 00.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Both teams have been playing bored for much of the year, yet both teams have obvious weaknesses. I would love to see OSU run 12 all day, because we ain't nearly as scared of that.
I think this year we see both teams jump out of their sheep's skins. NW forced OSU to play a card early -- that QB run. They were clearly planning to break tendency much later. So, I wouldn't be shocked if OSU goes with 00 as base for The Game and dare UM's pass rush to beat them. On defense, OSU's going to have to sell out against the run, and if that works then UM better have some counter-frippery they haven't shown on film yet.
I remember some Carr-Cooper duels being somewhat like this. Both teams establish identity that's so identity the offensive schemes have their own state-issued ID cards, then The Game starts and armies of rabbits pour out of their hats.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
You might be right; OSU could run more 00 than usual, especially with RBs dinged up.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
Go Blue! Beat Illinois.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Valid concern but many of the jump balls have been from offenses that didn't have much to offer or the ability to sustain drives. If OSU wants to turn their very potent death machine offense into a series of jump balls, that is not necessarily bad for Michigan.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
I know holding doesn't exist in the B1G but when a blocker can turn around and then yank a guy's collar without a flag, I run out of insults that cut deep enough to describe the incompetence of the officiating.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
That has to do with who the officials are looking at. The CJ and the R are looking at the tackles opposite the formation. He's able to get away with that because he's blocked from the CJ's view and the R is watching the LT.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
You'd first have to convince me the R is watching the LT in the first place. With what linemen can get away with, it's easier to believe the R is ogling a cute brunette in the second row.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
Seth, as a geek, I see some usefulness of the EPA data. Simple mean/median/mode would give a relative ranking of the performance (a few big plays versus slowly bleeding down the field). It might be useful to see the game-by-game graph of standard deviation as a metric of overall performance.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
Is it wrong to suggest Sainristil might be the defensive team MVP? At least to this point in the season?
November 16th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
It's Mazi Smith but it's close.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
I was truly distressed when Hinton left early last year, thinking we were screwed at DT this year. Instead, we have an embarrassment of riches at the position.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
In a similar vein, if Vince Gray comes back, does Sainristil stay on offense? Sometimes things just work out better than you would expect.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
Well, maybe they both left because they knew they were about to get passed up. Better to go out as a Michigan starter than a no-name backup right?
November 16th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
I absolutely love this team, but something about this write up and the opponents we have faced this year to date (read: not-so-great B1G competition) is giving me the heeby-jeebies/Don Brown feelings about our defense when we get to THE GAME.
Hold me, TVH!
November 16th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I like the matchup everywhere except our pass defense against their pass offense. It gives me The Fear.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
How do you think THEY feel about their run defense against our run offense?
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