UM vs MSU: Does the better team usually win?
It's rivalry week and there has already been much discussion on this Saturday's game. Here's some more. Does the better team (as measured by the overall records that season) usually win?
In the 21st century there have been only four instances where the "lesser" team won. All four of those instances were Sparty wins. But, in all four instances Michigan's season record was only one game better than MSU's. Also, for all four there was something memorable about the season:
2001: Spartan Bob ( https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/spartan-bob-10-year-anniversary )
2011: Brady Hoke's "pooping gold" year
2020: COVID-19 (and no Nico, no Ambry, etc.)
2021: Spartan Ref (a missed safety)
There haven't been any cases of an average team (again, as measured by season record) beating a good team. If the teams were 7-0 and 6-1 (or 6-1 and 5-2, etc.) now I could see getting nervous. But, Michigan is currently 7-0 and MSU is 3-4. If Sparty wins on Saturday we'll be witnessing a bad kind of history.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan%E2%80%93Michigan_State_football_rivalry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Michigan_Wolverines_football_seasons
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Michigan_State_Spartans_football_seasons
October 24th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Was that the Dantonio-goes-for-a-meaningless-2-point-play ending that went for 2 to the good guys, culminating in a Jabril flip in the end zone?
October 24th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
yup 30-23 and then went for 2 and he ran it back.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
the 32-23 game was a pounding. sparty scored on the last play of the game. remember, lose with dignity?
October 24th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I get what you are saying, but in the 21-7 game, MSU had the 2nd fewest yards for a game in the history of their program.
Under 100 yards.
If that game was still going, they’d still be stuck on 7 points.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^
Yes- Dantonio was able to create a strong Anti-U of M culture at Staae. With transfers and Mel not having that background (in addition to him being apparently a pretty average coach), I don't see the same thing occurring.
Counting 2020 as a game is silly- due to Michigan Covid restrictions the team couldn't practice hardly at all-
Last year, Michigan probably should have won but that Staae team was good. This year Staae is not good.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
'Tucker and his transfers'. Love it. Can we start calling him that?
October 24th, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
The Marginal Tucker Band?
October 24th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
Just Win Baby!!
October 24th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
You don't even mention the blocked punt in 2015
And last year was no safety. That was a touchdown that was mysteriously overturned - the margin of victory and also would have put the game away.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
Sorry, yes -- that was an overturned touchdown.
I didn't mention the blocked punt because 2015 wasn't one of the exception years. MSU had a better record than Michigan at the end of the season. (I don't expect that to diminish the pain of the memory.)
October 24th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
The slow motion clip that would've been 100% definitive for the refs was the front side and Moten's hand and arm were perfectly in the way. So typical right? I just have to laugh at the sheer perfection of the Spartan luck against Michigan. But beyond all that the ruling on the field was fumble and TD. And the fact that they used these slow motion clips to CONFIRM possession by Thorne is baffling and screwy. Whatever...atone for it on Saturday.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
All I remember of the 2015 M-MSU game is freezing my tail off in the stands and the Jourdan Lewis- Aaron Burbridge battle. I kept my binoculars on the two of them virtually the entire game. Cook completed nine of about 20 attempts to Burbridge for 139 yards and no TDs. Cook only had about a 46% (18/39) completion rate for the game. Many of those incompletions then were attempts to throw to Burbridge over Lewis. As good a contest between a good receiver and a great defender as you'll see in college football.
Looks like Burbridge only lasted about 3 years in the NFL while Lewis is still with the Cowboys, albeit apparently suffering a season-ending injury Sunday against the "mighty" Detroit Lions.
Anyway, I've repressed thoroughly any other aspects of the 2015 M-MSU game.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
I don't care who "lasted" in the NFL, that Burbridge/Lewis battle was one of the best WR/DB showdowns I have seen in a college game.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
Why did I watch that entire clip? That clip and Barrett being short are still two things that get my heart pumping faster. The numbers 42-27 is the only thing that calms me down.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:39 AM ^
Sparty is going to bring their A game this Saturday, whatever their A game looks like this year.
But the fact is that during the Harbaugh regime, Michigan has outscored and outplayed Sparty on a cumulative basis.
Each of Sparty’s wins was a fluke if some sort: punt, typhoon with 3rd sting QB, COVID, overturned fumble TD
That being said, the defensive mistakes in last year’s game were egregious. Felt a little like that Wisconsin game where they ran the same play over and over…and we just couldn’t stop it.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:45 AM ^
Yes, and...Kenneth Walker ain't walking on that field.
Expect a tough game, and expect Sparty to roll over and play dead once we've pounded them in the second half
October 24th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
I think we should win for a few reasons:
- Kenneth Walker is not taking the field
- DJ Turner shutdown Jayden Reed last year and I would expect him to put up a similar performance
- Our defense did a great job against Sean Clifford who I think Thorne shares some qualities with
- JJ can shred bad secondaries. Cade had almost 400 yards against MSU last year. Do I think JJ will also put up 400 yards? Probably not, but I think he can also shred MSU and put up a more efficient performance
- This team's energy just feels different. We have a take care of business attitude and I think we're pissed after last year
October 24th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
The issue last year was tempo. When we were properly lined up we shut them down. But we frequently weren't, and nearly all of their big plays came when that happened.
We still outgained them 552-395.
October 24th, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
Yes, we better be ready for that and also willing to use time outs if necessary to get lined up.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
This is going to be a 52-3 beatdown. Shades of the 2002 Bobby Williams beatdown game - coming off of a bullshit loss last year, this Michigan team is angry.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
If Michigan abuses the MSU pass 'defense' like they should, it will look like that. The offensive staff this year has seemed to be good at taking what the opposing defense gives them, so hopefully they're prepped to go air first and let Corum shred them when they finally start dropping 7+ guys into coverage
October 24th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
Michigan 42-10
mark it down
October 24th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
The fact that the last 2 years are "exceptions" is not in any way ominous.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Beat them by 50 or beat them by 1. Don’t care. Just win. Staeee is just another brick in the road on the way to C-bus.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
I mean, I'd want to beat them by way more than 1. The talk track then would be that "vaunted CFP contender Michigan can barely squeak by msu in a down year, what will it look like when msu is back at full strength? That's practically a win for msu and Michigan fans should worry about the rest of the schedule."
October 24th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Look, this is their Super Bowl. They will come to play. If we don't come to play we are going to have a game on our hands.
October 26th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Agree.
Look, I think this is more an external perception thing than a team thing. I think the Michigan players and coaches take every game week prep seriously, and no one on the team has forgotten last year's result. I think Michigan will be ready.
But I was there for the 1990 "No. 1 v. No One" game--I was in the seniors student section and had a straight-down-the-goal-line view of Desmond's ankle being grabbed in the end zone--and every Michigan fan knows the heartbreak losing this game can bring, particularly when Sparty is on a down year and Michigan is flying high. My son, who is now a senior himself, still can't watch or hear the "Trouble with the snap" call.
I feel confident that this coaching staff is not going to run stubbornly and punt after 3-and-outs in the first quarter. But I'd feel a whole lot better if Michigan can score early, take Sparty's best shots in the first quarter and not give up easy points, and take Sparty's heart out of it early.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
F any of this jinx paranoid BS.
Michigan is simply the better team, pretty much in every facet of the game (MSU punter being the only possible exception). The weather is going to be perfect for a late Fall evening (clear, Mid forties, light wind). Sure, Sparty will come out with the "A game", but their "A game" will not be anything close to the "A game" that Michigan is about to bring.
This will be a beatdown....
October 24th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
Their punter is not better- he typically punts farther than Robbins but leaves a ton of room for a return- Below is an example from the Wisconsin game- the Wisconsin returner has just caught the punt.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
That's why I stated possible exception. For the record, MSU is ranked 1st in net punting and Michigan is ranked 3rd with only 1.29 yard difference.
Source:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/98
With that being stated, if I see that much green field in front of AJ, I will be standing up as that will be going back the other way....
PS: MSU punter is averaging 51.90, their net is 46.29. MSU is averaging only giving up 5.11 yards per punt. The example you posted, I would bench the returner for not running that one back. The stats say what you posted was an exception, but I'll still take it.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
all sparty history is bad. either because of freak wins, or because they auger into the ground like a cartoon character:
October 24th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Michigan should win this game.
Don't let Thorn escape on 3rd downs
Get better push on OLine
Take advantage of WR match ups
October 24th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
In the 2021 game I don't remember the refs missing a safety, but I DO remember them overturning the call on an MSU fumble in the end zone that UM recovered for a TD. On review the ref said the MSU player's knee was down but there was not enough evidence to overturn the call. It was one of dozens of horrible calls during that game.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Avoid penalties. Be the physical aggressor up to the whistle. Expect dirty play. Expect late hits. O-Line needs to own the day. Body blow body blow body blow. Do what we do. Watch last year's tape.
Don't relax and enjoy it until 0:00 on the clock.
COVER F*ING REED ALL DAY. Do not leave our DBs on an island 1 on 1.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
M has a pretty big advantage in the trenches. That will be difficult for MSU to overcome. You can get some lucky bounces and calls that go your way, but trying hide shortcomings on the line of scrimmage is difficult for a full 60 minutes. M will find ways to run the ball. Not sure MSU will be able to do that and may become one dimensional. Don't think MSU's line will hold up well in pass pro when that happens. Probably will see a lot of screens and 3 step drops by Thorne. Has the potential to get ugly but emotion will probably keep MSU in it for a half until they wear down.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
2021: Spartan Ref (a missed safety)
It was a missed scoop and score that would've essentially broken MSU's morale
October 24th, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
Not missed - it was called on the field - but inexplicably overturned on replay.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
You'd probably need to go back to the '95 game (obviously not 21st century) for the last time the "clearly" better team lost, however two things stand out:
- Mel Tucker != Nick Saban
- Michigan is coming off of a CFP appearance, not the drama of their head coach being let go for an off field incident a few months prior.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
I wouldn't say we were better in 2011. MSU finished a game ahead of us in the Big Ten and then lost in the BTCG (in a hilarious Sparty no! moment when they roughed the Wisconsin punter at the end of the game), which was how they got their 3rd loss.
2020 probably doesn't need any revisiting. We managed to have one more game cancelled for Covid reasons than they did, leading to a "better" record (2-4 vs. 2-5).
So just 2001 and 2021. Both were in East Lansing and very controversial.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Is anyone actually worried?
We should talk up the "anything can happen in a rivalry" so when we 78–0 them it'll look that much better.
We should feature as many state-of-Michigan players as possible for the last few TDs of the beat down.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
Am I worried, I guess not, I see a win 10 out of 10 times...but I can't stand when we, sometimes, play down to our competition. Thats when sparty catches the luck they seem to always fuckin get.
Armchair qb me says, I want no turtling, I want JH to completely embarrass this team Saturday night. Double arcs, RPOs, down G, flee flicker....destroy them
October 24th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
What do I think about all of this?
I don't predict scores for Michigan games, and - though I'll place "friendly" wagers on the games - I try to stay "understated" both before and after any given game.
What I really like about this Saturday's game against the Spartans is this... high temperature - 60 degrees. Overnight low - 40 degrees. No precipitation in the forecast.
That is some VERY fine weather for a night game at the end of October.
And, it's a Blue Out!
October 24th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
Does the better team always win? Yes, because...scoreboard.
The better team doesn't leave room for error (i.e. one possession score). I don't believe in blaming referees, flukes, and COVID for our misfortune. That's just whining in my book. Do I like to talk smack before the game? Of course. Do I hope that we kick their butts every way that a butt can be kicked? Gladly. But head to head, you beat the other team across the field convincingly so that luck doesn't come into it. You don't get complacent and overlook them. If Sparty wins their Super Bowl, you take the L and plan for next year.
Whenever we win, we proved that year that we were the better team regardless of the records...just as we proved to the Bucks that we were the better team last year head to head.
My two cents.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^
Yes. Yes, we do.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
I was shocked when we lost last year, I will be [insert word here] this year if we lose...not sure what the word is, but in no way should this team even come close to losing to this years MSU team.
They are an unorganized badly coached team, this should be a blow out. I know, rivalry this, rivalry that...but this game should be uglier than that penn state ass kicking.
October 24th, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
1969: Bo's first year; Going into the game with MSU, Michigan is 3-1 and ranked #13, while MSU is 2-2 and unranked. MSU beats UM 23-12. MSU under Duffy finishes a lousy 4-6. Michigan upsets OSU and goes to the Rose Bowl in a 8-3 season.
1978: Michigan goes 10-2, clinches share of BIG crown, plays in Rose Bowl; MSU finishes 8-3, but at the time of the game with Michigan was unranked and sitting at 1-3 while Michigan was unbeaten and ranked #5. MSU beats UM 24-15.
1984: Michigan finishes 6-6 in Bo's worst season; MSU also goes 6-6; at the time of the game, UM was 3-1 and ranked #13, while MSU was 1-3 and unranked. MSU wins 19-7, although they got a huge assist from Harbaugh breaking his arm.
1987: Michigan goes 8-4, and was 3-1 and ranked #12 when they faced the unranked 2-2 Spartans, losing 17-11. M QB Demetrius Brown throws 7 INTs. '87 was Perles's best season—the Spartans finished 9-2-1 losing only to ND and FSU en route to winning the conference championship and the Rose Bowl.
1990: Michigan goes 9-3 for a share of the conference title, losing those three games by a total of 6 points. At the time of the game with MSU, UM was 3-21 and ranked #1, while MSU was 1-2-1 and unranked. Desmond is tripped in the end zone and MSU pulls off the upset 24-23 en route to a 8-3-1 season
1993: Going into the game Michigan is 3-1 and ranked #9, while MSU is 2-1 and unranked. MSU wins 17-7. Michigan finishes the season at 8-4, beating #5 OSU 28-0. MSU finishes a mediocre 6-6.
1995: Michigan is 7-1 and ranked #7 going into the MSU game, while MSU is 4-3-1 and unranked. MSU wins 28-25. Michigan finishes the season 9-4 and #17, while MSU finishes 6-5-1 and unranked.
1999: Michigan is 5-0 and ranked #3 going into the game with 5-0 #11 MSU. Bill Burke and Plaxico go off on Michigan for a 34-31 victory. Michigan finishes the season at 10-2 and #5; MSU finishes 10-2 and #7. Saban leaves MSU for LSU before their bowl game.
2001: Michigan heads into the MSU game at 6-1 and ranked #6. MSU was 4-2 and unranked. MSU pulls off the 26-24 upset with the help of Spartan Bob at the clock. UM finishes the season at 8-4 while MSU finishes 7-5.
The next loss to MSU is in 2008, and the rivalry completely changes direction from then on.
With the exception of 1999, in every one of the losses above Michigan was ranked and a heavy favorite over a then-unranked MSU. In those years, the better team overall did not win Paul Bunyan.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
MSU would have won the B1G in 1978 had they not been on probation from the Denny Stulz era. I was at that game. MSU was the better team that day, even though they had two non-conf losses. I remember watching Michigan replay a few years ago from that game. We gave up close to 500 yards. Bo was just livid about the D. Also, Leach threw 3 picks. Eddie Smith just torched us and we had no answer for their passing game.
The 1993 team didn't really get its crap together until after limping to 4-4. I think that was the beginning of people grumbling about Gary M.
1995 and 2001 are UM wins if played in A2. 1999 we had a lousy secondary all year and found our kryptonite in Burke to Plaxico. If I recall, in 1995 Charles had a pick in his hands but it bounced off into an MSU players hands on the last drive.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:03 PM ^
2001: The MSU win goes beyond saying, but UM was in a slump and Navarre was playing like Devin 2014 (minus the ability to run). I thought MSU overall played better as Duckett torched us with 200+ yards rushing. In spite of how we lost, I can't say we were the better team.
2011: MSU won the B1G east so think they were actually the better team - or at least equal to us. This was the game where Narduzzi talked about 60 minutes of (un)necessary roughness. Spartan thuggery at their best. Can't say I was shocked we lost as the offense was MIA after our 1st score.
2020: We sucked more than they did and especially that day. This was the day when a lot of the fanbase turned on JH. I think Joe Milton showed why he wasn't up for the job. And Green and Gray were turned into Black and Blue by the brutal torching Rocky gave them. Perhaps the most embarrassing effort I've ever seen under JH.
2021: The overturned TD sucked but that crap has happened in other games too (not just vs. Michigan). MSU was the better team when it mattered. Walker is the real deal after watching how he's busted out these last 3 games for Seattle. The loss sucked but the team used it to come together, unlike the 2020 meltdown.
MSU under Dantonio was simply the better team (performance on the field) than what RR or Brady put together. Even the 2017 loss, MSU ended up with 10 wins and forced 5 turnovers because we kept throwing the ball in a monsoon.
The only loss where I thought the significantly better team lost was the Eddie Brown trip of Desmond 1990.
Even our losses in 1984 (both teams were meh), 1993 (we were bumbling at midseason), 1995 (Banks just torched us), 1999 (Plaxico day). None of those left me feeling we should have won.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
From a close friend who is an MSU grad. It's no secret Sparty's O-line is not B1G caliber. We need to get them 3 and out the first few drives. Stuff the run and get Thorne hit or sacked each drive. That's coming from a long time Spartan fan who is worried how they will have time to throw the ball or even establish a running game.
If we have an emotional edge, it's that a fair amount of guys have never beaten MSU, at least not as a starter. There will be NO looking past this game as might have happened in the Lloyd era when we had a winning streak vs. them.
If we do what I think we can do, this game could be over by late in the 3Q with our 2nd string QB getting some good reps and Stokes getting some running time.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
So any of us are free to pick any slice of history to make a point about the Michigan-MSU game. Note that I don't say a rivalry, because it's not a rivalry. If I chose to focus only on the years I was at U of M, we won six of seven. I choose not to do that. What matters is the overall record. Period.
The powers that be at Michigan took the success of the football program for granted and made serious mistakes in hiring. At the same time MSU made good hiring decisions. The end result was that MSU enjoyed a happy time. A happy time that has come to an end and probably won't be repeated for quite some time.
The program has finally sorted itself out. I expect that we'll return to historical norms where Michigan wins between two out of three or three out of four games. A decade from now none of you will be concerned about the MSU game except to recognize that if we have deficiencies in the team MSU MIGHT capitalize.