Your Hawtest Takes: Halfway through B1G, how are we matching up with OSU?
I think we're in good shape for a competitive war. We have better running backs, OL. They have more experienced QB, a pinpoint passer with amazing touch, who isn't mobile and doesn't threaten with his legs, in a scheme built perfectly to his talents. He also drives a Bentley. We have a younger QB who is hopefully on a steeper learning curve with 4 games left, who is a playmaker and whose legs are a tremendous threat, but who is still making a few boneheaded schoolyard gaffs when stressed, but is really quite poised. Our D matches up well, strong against the run, decent pressure from many different sources, good DB's, and capable of many amorphous looks. DL depth that we haven't had in years. Not sure about OSU's D given the caliber of offenses they've faced. But Knowles has a good record and they are certainly as talented as UM. Hard to know if they're physically up to stopping our run game for 60 minutes if the game is nasty and tight. If this game is close late, I'd feel great (in theory) at us wearing them down. Smells of a high-scoring game where both offenses bring out all their weapons and specials. I feel our QB run game compensates for a lesser passing game than OSU, brings us 3 dimensions of attack, where they really only have two. At the Shoe is reason enough for pessimism given 2016. If Columbus cops show up with sniffing bomb dogs again, Jimmy needs to be ready to tell them to get a warrant or GTFU. One thing last year (and Harbaugh in general) should teach everyone, is that comparing scores for like opponents is meaningless. Harbaugh is prone to slogging wins. But, in big games, no one knows how to win a slog like Harbaugh.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
We don't. And that's fine.
I've said this before. We don't need to be as good as OSU is right now. That was never the goal, fans just created that narrative in their heads. But it was always unrealistic.
We have to be as good, no...better, than OSU by mid-November...and we're trending in that direction.
Go watch the Rose Bowl last year, that OSU offense was unreal...and they returned everyone! They were supposed to be this juggernaut while the defense, with a new DC, caught up.
Michigan on the other hand...
- New OC
- Had to figure out who was going to be the starting QB...which resulted in a new starting QB
- New starting RB, even if he had plenty of experience (remember when it was a big deal about Corum carrying the load and getting 30+ carries...checked that box, didn't we?)
- New starting C
And due to injury, a new starting TE as well, even if Schoonmaker, like Corum, played a ton last year. Then look at the defense...
- New DC
- Had to replace 2 of the best pass rushers in the HISTORY of the entire University of Michigan
Michigan was never going to come out of gate like OSU. Again, for me, that was never the objective. I'll try to find my post after this rant, but Michigan being at OSU's level is like step 7 or 8 of a 10 step process. We're on step 5 or 6...which is beat MSU and hopefully we beat them comfortably.
After MSU, Michigan has 3 games and those 3 weeks are critical. That is where we Michigan needs to be pushing towards that level of where OSU is (and beyond it). Screw vanilla. Screw playing down. Go DOMINATE.
I used to say all the time during the drought. In so many of those years...if we play OSU week 1, we would've beaten them. But they got better over the course of the year and we never did.
Now it's Michigan's turn. Week 1, OSU might beat Michigan by 2 scores. But we play them November 26, and we have given NO indication that we won't be ready to walk into Columbus and take on OSU, with a team lightyears ahead of where we were on Sept. 3.
We just have to be patient and continue to grow and improve. Then beat OSU, ✔️, and move to the next step...because that team won't be good enough to win a national championship. Consistent improvement.
The Michigan team that beats OSU is a team that beats "Sept. 3 Michigan" by 17, 20, 21 points.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^
Lot of good points here but I'm not sure the OSU that struggled with ND in week 1 beats us by 2 scores. I think OSU has improved since then (as have we) but I don't think they were a well oiled death machine in week 1.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
I think we should give OSU credit for playing a Power 5 opponent out the gate without a tune up game like Hawaii or UConn.
We just need to continue to improve
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:08 PM ^
That OSU-ND game was the tale of two halves as it became obvious that ND was not going to let OSU beat them deep. They were dropping their safeties. Once OSU figured it out in the 2nd half, they just started pounding the ball with that #3 and that was impressive as they just completely took over the game in the 2nd half
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
So far, so good...but we still have a looong way to go.
https://www.mgoblog.com/mgoboard/harbaugh-trying-fool-ohio-thinking-michigan-canwill-only-throw-rock
1. Solve QB Battle. ✔️
2. Win first road test versus a legit defense. ✔️➕️
3. Start to build on the passing game (+300 yard game, more than 30 passes) since you could not do that against the cupcakes due to #1. ✔️
4. Beat PSU (doesn't matter how, and if you complain about it...you should be banned). ✔️➕️➕️
5. Beat MSU (should be convincingly - or complaining is justified, but due to recent history...unfortunately, this one is a little more "it doesn't matter how" as well).
6. Take the next 3 games to build as a team and elevate each week until you're at the point where you're ready to beat OSU. This is where it DOES matter how we look, this is where you want to see Michigan to build towards the level OSU is operating right now.
7. Beat OSU (doesn't matter how, 2-0 is fine). We don't need to look like them today, it's November 26 that matters, we just have to keep growing. They return everyone, we have to build. It was ALWAYS going to be this way.
8. Win B1G Championship Game.
9. Win CFP Semifinal (doesn't matter how, 2-0 is fine).
10. Play our best game of the season, in all 3 phases (which would win a national championship, but anything less ain't getting it done).
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:23 AM ^
That’s not exactly true. OSU lost two first round wr’s (three if you’re counting All’s injury, then you should count Smith- Njigba’s) two offensive lineman (three if you count Harry Miller - the guy who left the team due to mental illness) and their starting TE. They also brought in a new defensive coordinator who is implementing a new defensive scheme that is allegedly complex and takes time to learn and adjust to. Like our offense, their defense is learning and getting better as the season goes. We do need to be better than they are in late November. It may have been better to play them early in the season.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
Well that Nebraska curse is still alive…
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:43 AM ^
The game is in Colonbowel. That means we have to beat the officials first, then we can think about OSU, I do not think we are that good but we are much better than during the drought. I do not see them hanging 50 on us.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
I'd say we have a punchers chance. Winning the turnover battle and hitting 1-2 deep balls will be crucial.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^
OSU won't give up more than 35 so we will have to keep them under that, which if we don't turn it over I think is possible.
Also, this will be the game that JJ has to win for us. OSU will put 12 guys in the box before they let us run on them like we did last year. Ryan Day cannot get Manballed to death at home and keep his job. That's right, Ryan Day is coaching for his job when we come to town! How's that for hot!
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
You're dead on about JJ having to win it for us.
I read an article about their new DC's (nowles?) style and his first priority is to stack the box to stop the run and put pressure on the QB. The other side to this is that they leave their DBs one-on-one with WRs and he says that they expect to get 3 to 4 long gains against them every game. They rotate around 9 to 10 DL every game to keep them fresh so they can keep applying the pressure.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
They most certainly will give up more than 35.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:56 PM ^
OSU won't give up more than 35
Based on...? They haven't played anything resembling a good offense.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
How many guys did OSU put “in the box” for the 2020 game? You think they did not know exactly who we were and what we were going to do? Please….check the Offensive review for Michigan for that game
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:40 AM ^
The 2020 game? No one. We didn’t play.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
Exactly
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
Checkmate.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Beat MSU...
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^
Defense: I am very surprised with the defense this year. It seems like they are better as an overall unit compared to last year. If we had the elite edges we did last year, I wouldn't be able to contain myself.
Offense: The rushing game is elite with a better offensive line and the two lightning backs can make teams pay. Corum has shown he can keep moving after contact. I'm surprised that the passing game has not been as explosive as people thought it would be. I'm now at the point where I think Xavier Worthy would not make any difference on this team because he would not be best used for what he does. It seems like our WR's have a certain mindset about wanting to block but I think the way Michigan plays shows top receiver recruits they're better elsewhere.
OSU: I think Michigan has to play the perfect game again and have things go their way on almost everything. They will need drives like they had against Penn State, hold the ball for nine minutes, and then score touchdowns. Cannot rely on field goals to get the job since OSU can score seven in under 60 seconds consistently.
Recruiting: With several years of results, I am surprised more elite RBs, TEs, Olinmen, Dlinemen, and corners are not wanting to commit to Michigan. Recievers and QBs I get. Before anyone mentions JJ on the team and Davis possibly committing, realize we don't have QBs who put up huge numbers and get the Heisman attention.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
Before anyone mentions JJ on the team and Davis possibly committing, realize we don't have QBs who put up huge numbers and get the Heisman attention.
Much of this is a function of the “system” they play in. That’s why OSU QBs are Heisman hopefuls but never pan out in the NFL.
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
I think JJ can break the trend but Michigan hasn’t put a successful QB in the NFL since Carr was the coach.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:10 PM ^
Remember what happened to the Death Star… both of them.
October 22nd, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
Schoonmaker just needs to remember to use mass times acceleration.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:10 PM ^
OSU didnt impress me as unbeatable today. CJ was run down from behind , the OLgave up pressure and couldn't run-block when it mattered They failed 4 times in the red zone and turned the ball over. With any kind of offense by Iowa the game would have been closer. They got 7 turnovers plus 1 or more on downs. Niether the O or D are invincible.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
No team is unbeatable including OSU but I will say this, their defense this year is light years ahead of that sieve they called a defense in 2021. We weren't the only ones that drilled their defense last year
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
We probably lose to OSU and go to the Rose Bowl and play Oregon or USC. Which is fine, I'd rather not get curb stomped by Georgia.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
Pressure Stroud early and often is our greatest weapon to defeat them. If we can do that, we have a great shot at a win.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
After losing Hutch and Ojabo, and the secondary looking like shit as recently as 2020, I'm pleasantly surprised at how the season is going.
I think Michigan can hang with ohio if they can play like they did against Penn State.
The wild card for me remains QB.
Not as in who is the starter... but JJ has proven to be reckless at times. He'll need to get that out of his system before going down to Columbus.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
Green/Turner/Sainristil = Harrison Jr/Egbuka/Smith-Njigba. It comes down to being able to get pressure with 4 DL. Colson will make a huge play...for both teams. Okie and the freshmen DL need to take this as personally as we do.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Our corners have been very good this season, and I'm confident they'll be able to hold up to some degree against OSU's receivers... but you're talking about three 1st round draft picks in Harrison Jr/Egbuka/JSN. I don't think there is a cornerback room in America that stalemate with those guys. Objectively I would say their WRs >> than our CBs, even though our corners are pretty dang good themselves.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
Those are good corners but first round receivers. The DBs are gonna need help.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
Don't we have some rule that we can't talk about beating OSU until we beat MSU?
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Yes. Apparently, it is distracting to the team for us to look ahead.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Win or lose to MSU, the win in Columbus is the key to the B1G.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
We need to improve our medium and long passing game. I’m not sure if our WR cannot get open on long route or JJ does not have the touch yet but the long passing game needs to improve before playing OSU. We have to keep up with h those fucknuts! I could see a 45-42 TUE fins!
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
I think we’ll probably have to throw the ball more than we would prefer and score TDs rather than FGs in the red zone if we want to win.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
I don't see OSU as an untouchable death star anymore than I see UM as an untouchable death star right now. Honestly, I think Michigan is the better team. UM's offense has been different in each game because the opponent was different. It has attacked the weakness in whatever defense is in front of it, and blew them all away. Iowa's defense, that really did play pretty well today, was not an issue against Michigan. Had we not turtled intentionally, that game was a blowout. They have a better OL than last years team had, and a better RB room with Corum healthy and a more experienced Edwards.
Defensively, I think the DL is also better than last years, especially with 3 more games to gain experience. Not as top end star studded, to be sure, but better all around. The middle of the DL is so much better than last years... LB's are a weak spot, but Barret has been pretty good and Colson is getting a little better each game. Turner and Green may be the best CB combo in the league.
The attitude is different now, too. Michigan no longer fears OSU - that table turned. It may be even on that count, but OSU does NOT have any advantage in that dept.
I don't think it'll be another 42-27 DOMINATION. But I also don't think they're a 'better' team - early in the season, now, or in 4 weeks.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:37 PM ^
Michigan's style of play IS PERFECT for defeating a pass-oriented, fast scoring, soft-centered team like OSU. What worked last season will work this season; the game will be a bit closer because it's in Columbus.
Harbaugh found the formula. Spread out the field, but still run the ball until OSU can stop UM, and OSU CANNOT STOP UM. It's 21st century Bo Schembechler football. RUN THE DAMN BALL!
#GoBlue
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:03 AM ^
If Michigan beats OSU in Columbus this year by running the ball down their throats, I guarantee you that Woody Hayes will turn over in his grave.
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
and punch the old lady buried next to him?
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^
Good take by the OP, IMO. Questions to me are whether JJ can get one letter grade up from where he is now by The Game, and whether we can get a combination of coverage + pressure to limit (not stop) Stroud & Co. Pretty sure we will be able to run them, and the colder and worse the weather is in Columbus, the more I like our chances.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
god, slow down breathe. better yet, step away.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
Does Stroud drive a Bentley?!
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:29 PM ^
Yes. Part of his NIL deal with a Rolls Royce dealership.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:48 AM ^
JH Christ if that is not an OSU move. Prolly let him keep it after this season too.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
It looks encouraging. They’re still very talented, but no longer what they were under Meyer. It won’t be easy, but I like Michigan’s chances.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:22 PM ^
They are just as talented as they were under Meyer, but I’m not sure they have the same mental edge.
Meyer thrived in rivalry situations. Everywhere he’s been. It was an absolute cutthroat, out for blood mentality. It remains to be seen if Day is the same way.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:31 PM ^
Meyer isn’t a very good person, but he’s one of the all-time college coaching greats. Unless Ryan Day is also one of the all-time greats, which is highly unlikely, they won’t be quite as good as they were, and that will become more obvious as time goes by.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:47 AM ^
Ryan Day is a fantastic play caller, but Meyer was a master motivator. Probably one of the best ever at the college level. There’s a reason he was so dominant in rivalry games. I think he only lost to Georgia once, maybe once to FSU, and we all know how he fared in the OSU-Michigan rivalry.
We may not know how good Ryan Day really is unless he goes to the league or takes another college job (which wouldn’t happen unless he went to the league and flamed out). He was handed the keys to a fully loaded Ferrari. He didn’t have to build anything. Just sustain what Meyer and Tressel had already built for him. The recruiting was already there. The culture of winning. It was all already there.
To his credit he has sustained what was already there, and his offenses are lethal, but with that roster and massive talent advantage on an annual basis, even I could coach OSU to ten wins every year.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:20 PM ^
Better than I thought, but if we don’t fix the red zone issues, we are toast.
Michigan will need to score TDs on probably at least 80% of its red zone opportunities against OSU.
Michigan needs to go into that game assuming it needs a TD on every possession. It very well might be the case.