Your Hawtest Takes: Halfway through B1G, how are we matching up with OSU?
I think we're in good shape for a competitive war. We have better running backs, OL. They have more experienced QB, a pinpoint passer with amazing touch, who isn't mobile and doesn't threaten with his legs, in a scheme built perfectly to his talents. He also drives a Bentley. We have a younger QB who is hopefully on a steeper learning curve with 4 games left, who is a playmaker and whose legs are a tremendous threat, but who is still making a few boneheaded schoolyard gaffs when stressed, but is really quite poised. Our D matches up well, strong against the run, decent pressure from many different sources, good DB's, and capable of many amorphous looks. DL depth that we haven't had in years. Not sure about OSU's D given the caliber of offenses they've faced. But Knowles has a good record and they are certainly as talented as UM. Hard to know if they're physically up to stopping our run game for 60 minutes if the game is nasty and tight. If this game is close late, I'd feel great (in theory) at us wearing them down. Smells of a high-scoring game where both offenses bring out all their weapons and specials. I feel our QB run game compensates for a lesser passing game than OSU, brings us 3 dimensions of attack, where they really only have two. At the Shoe is reason enough for pessimism given 2016. If Columbus cops show up with sniffing bomb dogs again, Jimmy needs to be ready to tell them to get a warrant or GTFU. One thing last year (and Harbaugh in general) should teach everyone, is that comparing scores for like opponents is meaningless. Harbaugh is prone to slogging wins. But, in big games, no one knows how to win a slog like Harbaugh.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
I was so thoroughly unimpressed watching OSU beat Iowa today. Imo, their margins of victory are masking just how beatable they really are. To be fair I think the same about our squad, but that’s mainly because of our linebacker play. For OSU, I just don’t think they’re tough enough to win in a dog fight with us.
I 100% take Michigan again if there’s bad weather. I’m 50/50 otherwise.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Feeling pretty confident for a surprising reason: how badly OSU destroyed Iowa today. And will also feel good when they beat Maryland into the ground the week before the game.
Reason is last year OSU made a point to just demolish Michigan State the week before the game. And that was because MSU was the one team to beat Michigan. OSU was playing an intimidation game. Same reason they didn't call off the dogs today vs Iowa and same reason they will beat Maryland by 40+. Day is trying to intimidate Harbaugh by splattering the teams that Michigan has played close. Problem is, any given team only has so many top level effort games. It is hard to get that hyped up into the stratosphere two weeks in a row or more than a few times a season.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
Feeling pretty confident for a surprising reason: how badly OSU destroyed Iowa today.
Did you watch the game? Until the Iowa D wore down late in the game, the OSU offense was rough.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
Defense Matters.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
Am I supposed to give my hot take or my thoughts on us versus OSU?
Hawt take: Just run a pure zone read offense with JJ and make Orji the backup.
OSU take: We're overmatched everywhere. It's going to have to be a coaching win. That could happen. Our players are good enough to execute a good scheme.
October 23rd, 2022 at 6:48 AM ^
Overmatched everywhere is bull.
The matchup of their receivers against Michigan’s corners? Yeah that’s definitely an OSU advantage, but OSU has one of the greatest crops of receivers ever assembled at the collegiate level so they’ll have that advantage over everyone. And then Stroud is really good and will get his that day.
But you can’t tell me Michigan is overmatched with its own offense. Especially with its offensive line. This is the same OL that paved OSU into a pathetic paste less than a year ago, and is arguably better this year. And it’s essentially the same guys on OSU’s defense, but they’re puffing their chests now because they’ve gotten to beat up on a bunch of nobodies. What is the best offense they’ve played? Wisconsin? MSU? That’s saying something. You held Iowa, freaking Iowa, to ten points at home. Congratu-fucking-lations. You have played NOBODY.
Not saying this means Michigan is guaranteed to beat them. They will be far and away Michigan’s toughest game all year. And they will score points. But Michigan has a huge opportunity to assert itself with its own offense. They are not overmatched on that side of the ball.
If Michigan can impose its will in the running game and get just a handful of stops on defense, then that makes it anyone’s game. Michigan just annihilated a top-5 run defense, so the groundwork to be able to do it against OSU is there. It’s not just hoping it can somehow happen. Is OSU’s defense that much better than Penn State’s? I highly doubt it.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
I guess my OSU take was hawt!
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^
Depends on how many Buckeyes come down with the flu.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
I hope we learned from the Georgia game. Quick passes to the sideline ABOSLUTELY took our pass rush away. We never adjusted. If Ohio St were smart, they would do the same.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:29 PM ^
Stroud is a monster. His “bad” game today was a 184 QBR (JJ had a 143).
Their WRs are monsters as well and their D is getting much better in their new system. We just don’t have the depth to keep up with them.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:00 AM ^
We didn’t have the depth to keep up with them last year either. That game turned out alright.
OSU’s defense looks good, and it may very well be good. But who have they played? They’ve gotten to tee off against some really, really bad teams. It doesn’t take much to look good against Iowa, Wisconsin, MSU or Notre Dame this year.
I’m reserving judgment on them for a little while.
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
Sorry, but I don't follow from your post how the disparity in "depth" will determine this game. Where exactly do they have the definitive depth that we lack that will cement the outcome in their favor in an irrevocable way as you imply?
We seem to be pretty deep everywhere except LB. OL doesn't generally rotate during a game. Our DL rotates 8-10 people. We have secondary depth, WR/TE/RB depth. Where is their amazing depth going to turn this game? Are they going to trot out 10 five-star receivers on a play? They are very similar to the team last year, that miraculously hung on by its fingernails in the second half to only lose by 15. Every position (4) we replaced on offense is arguably an upgrade, except RT. And we have Bell back. We lost 3 great players on D, but our DT's are better and deeper and our DE's aren't an enormous drop-off so far. We lost Vincent Gray and an erratic LB. Mikey S., is 0.85 x Dax Hill.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:30 PM ^
I do like me some word salad
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:11 PM ^
I logged in just to say:
Fuck Ohio State
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:23 PM ^
Stroud cant put 45 points on UM, when UM runs the ball for 300+ yards on OSU and keeps the ball for 40 minutes of the 60 minute game.
UM is gonna defeat OSU the exact same way UM defeated OSU last year: UM's gonna hit Ohio harder than OSU's ever been hit, and will ever be hit. UM's style of play IS EXACTLY how you defeat a fast-scoring, soft-centered team. The score might be a bit closer in 2022. The outcome will be the same.
#GoBlue
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
I agree. This comes down to how the teams practice. When you're a fluffy air-raid team you don't practice against downhill power very much, and your OL isn't great at prepping you for it. That's the difference between Day and Meyer. Meyer was a spread to run power. His teams didn't put up the gaudy numbers, but they didn't get outmuscled either. OSU will have seen nothing like UM all year. Now, we will have likewise seen nothing like them, but, I agree, we are built to crack this egg.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:26 PM ^
I think UM is a team still on the rise. JJ's best day is ahead of him. If they continue to improve (and over the next four games, they SHOULD), UM could win big & Blake should be striking The Pose on one of his multiple TD runs.
Then again, if this is as good as UM gets, it is likely to be one of those 45-41 heartbreakers.
Bringing Paul back home will be a great start to the 2nd third of the season. Go Blue!
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:00 AM ^
We are going to cram the ball down their throats and strut out of Columbus with a two game winning streak. After the game Ryan Day will have existential questions to answer to (while.perched on third base). .
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:38 AM ^
I'm suspecting that Sherrone Moore was the secret weapon behind our season last year, and we need to throw as much money at him as possible to keep him around
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:33 AM ^
I think anOSU is very good.
However, Iowa turning the ball over 6 (!) times . . . well . . . it added a bit to OSU's score.
And those turnovers weren't forced. They were a host of amazing blunders.
The OSU / Iowa game makes me think OSU offensive line and defense are not perfect.
But, man, those receivers are amazing. And with time, Stroud's ball placement is excellent. Michigan is going to have to get after him a lot like last year to keep pressure on that stuff.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:33 AM ^
After watching them today .....
If they play us like they played Iowa today we beat them. I know they won today and pretty big but Iowa gave them all the chances (so many turn overs) as their offense was truly terrible. Had Iowa's offense been even decent this game and score is totally different.
I for sure like our chances again this year against them.
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:26 AM ^
Please don’t say Stround can’t run. You’re increasing the likelihood that he puts his legs on display and runs for 70-100 yards in the game.
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
2004: Troy Smith takes over mid-season for Justin Zwick, and his best rushing output is 65 yds in a loss to Purdue.
Against Michigan, he goes off for 145 yds in 18 carries for 8.1 yds per carry, leading OSU to a dominant 37-21 victory.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
I believe they should be the #1 team. They are really damn good. They have one of the best wr rooms I can think of with one of the best young position coaches in the country coaching them. The defense is significantly improved. Stroud is a beast.
BUT…no team is an unstoppable juggernaut this year. When stroud gets pressure he can be forced into mistakes. He’s a freak pocket passer but there is opportunity to disrupt him.
I think UM absolutely has a shot. Much better shot than I thought going into the year. If this team can punch msu and head to 11-0 and put their souls in the field like last year that’s all I can ask for 😊
it also feels like this team has “it”. I wasn’t sure if they’d keep “it” but I think Blake and JJ are making up for the loss of aiden in that department.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
And just as a side note…poor damn Iowa. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anything like that before…
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:05 AM ^
My personal opinion, if Michigan can lean on the run game and tee up some well timed chunk plays to keep OSU's defense honest and off balance, they should be able to win The Game.
The best way to defend Ohio State is by keeping their offense off the field. I do think Michigan will be able to force a couple punts, perhaps force a turnover. When we have the ball, need to keep the clock running and sustain drives that convert to touchdowns. Do not turn the ball over and give their offense extra possessions.
We do that, and we should be right there at the end to get a W in Columbus. Easy right?.. I'm sure the *uckeyes will have something to say about that, but we need to find a way to avoid a shootout. That's the scenario where Ohio State wins easy.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
I'll add my 2 cents:
I think that the OP is generally right, although he focuses more on the UM offense than what I think will be the real key; how the D is schemed to slow down the OSU offense.
Last year UM had a cheat code off the edges with CH and DO. This year they have a good to great but not unreal pass rush which means Stroud will have more time to carve up the secondary.
The UM d-backs will not have been tested. They seem similar to last year to me, basically good to great but not exceptional (again).
With all of this in mind, I think that the D-line will need to play 20+% better in The Game and the secondary will need to make 3-4 critical pbus or ints to keep them in the game.
Tbh I think that the variance for the UM offense is relatively low. I do think they can control the LOS and given JH's tendencies I doubt there will be a lot of aggressive play calling on 1st and 2nd down. I see UM scoring 28-40 points no matter what while I could believe the D could give up anywhere from 24-56.
A final note on intangibles. The more I think about it I think JH's "born on third base" line really gets at something with Day. OSU has an insane level of talent which, when adding in the home field advantage in the shoe and the revenge factor from last year, could very well give OSU the win. The thing is, neither of those advantages have to do with coaching or for lack of a better term, grit.
To use a metaphor from a line my old man used to say about certain sportscars: "they pass everything on the road except repair shops after a pothole". When I'm being honest with myself that's where I land.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
We play MSU.
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
All this confident talk about OSU being a soft finesse team that will wilt under our supremely physical assault is exactly the same bluster I've heard from U-M fans before each and every one of our Rose Bowls against the PAC since January 1, 1970.
There is a massive difference between playing at home and playing on the road, and OSU will be a completely different team in the horseshoe than it was in Michigan Stadium last season.
In addition to that, there's another opponent we will have to face:
We should expect several outrageously and egregiously wrong home-cooking officiating decisions to go against us.
If Michigan wins by one point in a stadium where they haven't won since 2000, it will be a major achievement.
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
I see UM winning in the same fashion as last season (paving run game). They just did it to PSU (even more so) and I don’t see anything from OSU that shows me they can stop them. It will all come down to jump balls metaphorically and literally - which we know they’ll get their share of circus crap with 3 straight #1 5* WR recruits (can you believe we beat them to begin with?!)
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
OSU is a soft front-runner of a team. Put up a fight and they go down.
It's gonna be like this classic:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2009-11-14-southern-cali…
WHAT'S YOUR DEAL?
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
I think JH has found the formula for his Michigan program. It’s old school, but he’s old school, and it still works. It’s run the ball and stop the run.
Sure, there are modern concepts on both sides of the ball, but the emphasis on these ideas about running and defending the run are in Harbaugh’s gut. The implementation of the Ohio drill last year is a great example of this approach. The OL and DL going against each other, a tough, run oriented drill. Before The Game last year, Coach said it still gets back to Bo and Woody, a physical , gritty battle in the trenches.
The Penn State game is a great sign for this Michigan team. A complete domination by both lines. If that continues to improve, Michigan will have a great chance for victory in Columbus in 5 weeks.
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Same as last year, OSU looks like a death machine, Michigan looks capable of competing and its a matter of winning the 1 or 2 close games on the schedule (harder to find this year) and making it to the final game with a sparkling record and a healthy QB.
Play their asses off, catch a couple breaks maybe and we might just pull it off down there.
Either way, beat MSU, beat Rutgers, beat Nebraska, beat Illinois and Michigan should be looking at no worse than a Rose Bowl.
But beat MSU......bad.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
As always, turnover margin, line play, and penalties will determine the outcome. Those are all impacted by OSU’s home field advantage. Both teams have plenty of offensive and defensive playmakers. In a close game, in-game coaching will be decisive. I like Michigan’s chances if we don’t lose any more key starters to injury.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
My hottest take is mgoblog podcast hottest takes is the most annoying thing I've ever heard. And isn't funny