Is there a path
We all know what happens when OSU beats sparty but what if the Spartans win? Is it conceivable that if Michigan beats OSU perhaps in similar or more comfortable fashion, Spartans go to B10CG and lose. Does this get one loss Michigan into the Playoff.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
In this scenario Wisconsin or whoever beat MSU would be going to the Rose Bowl.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
I read (on the internet, of course) that the Rose Bowl will be choosing the highest CFP ranked B1G team not in the playoffs and pit them against the same from the PAC-12. If MSU wins out, they're in the playoffs. If MSU loses in the B1G championship, whoever beats them will not be higher ranked than an 11-1 UM.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^
Any season that ends in a NY6 Bowl game is a successful season in my eyes..
November 15th, 2021 at 6:10 PM ^
Rose Bowl has to take the B1G champ if they’re not a CFP team.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:08 PM ^
This just isn’t worth devoting any thought to at the present time.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^
Yes. Basically it's a three game season for MSU, a two-three game season for Michigan and OSU. Lose and you're out. Whoever goes undefeated through the next two games and the conference champion game will be in the playoff. If MSU beats OSU and PSU and wins the conference championship, they'll go, even if Michigan beats Maryland and OSU. If they lose again they're out.
That's why all the stupid "controversy" over Michigan being rated ahead of MSU was meaningless. It will play out. Go Blue.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
Agree. It's a 3-horse race in the Big Ten East for both the BTCG berth AND a CFP berth. Only real hope is for a CFP berth is for one of the three to win out.
Worst case scenario for the Big Ten is if all of Michigan, msu, and osu end the regular season with 2 losses, as no team likely makes it to the CFP.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
I can totally see Sparty beating Ohio and losing to Penn St too
November 15th, 2021 at 10:32 PM ^
Look at State's pass defense and OSUs pass offense and tell me again how you can see State winning that game.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
And on the other side of the ball, Ohio gave up 360 pass yards to Sean Clifford and company, and 270 rushing yards to Oregon, and KW3 is about to come to town and Jayden Reed has been coming along nicely for Thorne...they can absolutely win 44-42 and then turn around and lose 35-23
November 15th, 2021 at 9:43 PM ^
So this would involve MSU beating OSU, but losing to PSU, then Michigan losing to OSU. Not all that unlikely, but this would leave OSU in the B1G Championship (they'd have only 1 conference loss). If they win that, I bet they would be playoff bound (3 of ND, Oregon, Oklahoma and Bama winning out would be the only thing to confound this).
November 15th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
Technically yes but my guess is MSU would go before us in that situation. ND still made it last year even after losing a rematch to Clemson in the championship game. Don't think the committee wants to start punishing teams for losing in a conference championship. MSU would jump Michigan in the CFP rankings if they win this week no matter what we do against MD and they would stay ahead with a win over PSU and winning the east regardless of what we do with OSU. So you would need the committee to drop MSU below a team a team that didn't play a game in conference championship week in the rankings. And you can't reference 2016 because PSU had more regular season losses than OSU and was behind them going into championship week and just didn't jump them. Its not happening. Michigan has a better shot at being the second big ten team in the playoff with MSU winning out and chaos elsewhere than this situation resulting in Michigan getting in.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
There is no way that a two-bad-loss MSU team would get an invite over a one-loss Michigan team that had just beaten OSU. (Because any loss in the Big Ten title game is a bad loss).
Keep in mind, though -- even if MSU gets past OSU, they still have to beat PSU. That means, their pass defense has to stop Clifford and Dotson.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Agree.
I also think there's a better chance that Sparty loses the last 2 games than wins the last 2.
So, considering all the possibilities, the only answer for us right now is, Just win baby!
November 15th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
11-2 MSU (loss in BIG title game) vs 11-1 Michigan
I think Michigan gets in, especially if MSU loses in Indy against a common opponent in Wisconsin.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^
If we win out, we almost certainly go to the Rose Bowl. Unless we go to the playoff. If we go to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 15 years, I wouldn't feel like it's a consolation prize. I'd be downright ecstatic.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
Is the team with the worst passing defense in yards allowed per game going to beat the team with the most prolific passing offense in yards per game?
Somehow I think that's unlikely, but then Kansas beat Texas in Austin.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
State could lose to PSU and we win out. That puts us as B1G champ
November 15th, 2021 at 5:15 PM ^
97 percent chance, acc to "The Playoff Predictor" if UM wins the next 3 games See below
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor
November 15th, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
Interestingly, it gives us a 12% chance even if we lose to OSU.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Good link, but wrong scenario.
If you pick Michigan winning our last 2 games but not making the BIG 10 championship, it still gives us a 79% chance of making the playoffs. This is higher than I would have expected. Hope it is correct and hope it happens. Would save us from playing an extra game as well.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
Is there a path?
The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men.
Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children.
Pretty sure this means a 1-loss Michigan makes the playoff, Ringo.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
I feel the need for a Big Kahuna Burger.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
Michigan has a decent shot at the Playoff even if they don’t make the BTCG and win it. I think the big thing that would need to happen is an Oregon loss. A one loss Michigan team jumps Cincy book it.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:27 PM ^
Oregon is of no consequence to Michigan.
If we win out, we both have wins over OSU. Our next best wins would be at Wisconsin on the road and then PSU on the road would be better than theirs (utah and....). They lost to a horrible horrible Stanford team. We lost to a top 10 team on the road due in no small part to officiating hijinks.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:43 PM ^
I could see a 12-1 Oregon team with a win in Columbus, two wins away from home against Utah, and a conference championship getting the nod over an 11-1 Michigan with an OSU win at home but no conference championship game. It would be a debate, but I could see it.
What I can't see is both Michigan and Oregon winning out. Particularly Oregon. An Oregon win this weekend would be an upset. Then they have the Civil War, then need to beat Utah away from Autzen again. (Beating a good coach like Whittingham twice within a few weeks is very difficult.). FPI gives them about a 17% chance of getting through it.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
We are poor officiating and MSU going 5-5 on do or die 50/50 plays away from basically only needing a competitive OSU game away from the CFP.
However, I could totally have seen a victory over MSU and a letdown loss to Penn St which would be worse than where we are right now.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
If any of OSU, MSU, or UM win out they are in.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
So simple and accurate. Basically, the playoffs for the CFP start this weekend for the Big Ten East.
Corollary: Lose one and you're done.
I know the question from the OP was Is there a path? Anything is possible but with Cincinnati knocking on the door, 1 SEC guaranteed, and enough other teams close (Oregon, OK, OK State, ND), there's only room for one Big Ten.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Correct. There will not be 2 Big Ten teams in a 4 team playoff. A 2-loss Big Ten team is not making it in either.
November 16th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
there's only room for one Big Ten.
Agreed. I think any undefeated or 1-loss P5 team (or ND) will make it. That includes OSU, MSU, UM, Oregon, Bama, UGA, Oklahoma, Okie St, & Wake. I think for Cincy to make it, there can't be 4 undefeated or 1-loss P5 (or ND) teams. But, Okie St & OU have to play each other. That will knock one out. Bama & UGA have to play each other. A Bama loss probably knocks them out. I think UGA is in regardless. OSU, UM, & MSU all have to play each other. That will likely knock two of them out. But, there is a possibility for some really tough choices between a two loss Bama, OSU, UM, and MSU, a 1-loss OU or Okie St., a 1-loss ND who lost to Cincy and won't beat anyone, and an undefeated Cincy. I would not want to be on that committee. If ever there was a year from an expanded playoff it would be this year.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:41 PM ^
Possibly not if both Michigan and MSU win out. In that scenario, Cincinnati would win out and stay ahead of Michigan (because OSU would drop below Cinci and even ND if the lose to MSU so it wouldn't give the committee a reason to leap M over Cinci if they beat OSU).
But yeah if only one of them finishes with a loss, they're almost certainly in.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
I don't think Cincy would get in over a 1-loss UM. UM's only loss would be to MSU that could be argued based on a bad call. They would also have wins over OSU, PSU, & Wiscy. Cincy's only quality win would be ND who's only quality win would be over Wiscy. I think a UM 1-loss team has a better body of work than an undefeated Cincy team. In fact, I think the only way Cincy gets in is if all the P5 teams have two losses. The only 1-loss team I see Cincy getting in ahead of is ND since they beat them. But, they won't get in ahead of OSU, MSU, UM, Okla, Bama, UGA, Oregon, etc.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Yes, MSU fans would whine about being punished for losing the extra game but there is no doubt to me the committee would take a one loss Big Ten team even if its not the champion rather than leave the Big Ten out entirely. As others have said even in a scenero where MSU and UM somehow both win out there is a chance they both get in.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Personally, I want OSU to lose to both Michigan and Michigan State.... I hate OSU!
November 15th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
Nah too much of a gamble to hope a battered PSU team with nothing to play for beats MSU on the road. You hate to do it but absolutely hoping OSU wins this week to set up the stakes of everything on the line for the game. That is how it should be. Michigan and OSU for all the marbles, no outside help needed from PSU. Also don't want the dumb national media to try and shift the goalposts if UM wins by saying they beat a 2 loss OSU team with nothing to play for rather than winning a winner take all game with everything on the line.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^
They don't need to lose to PSU necessarily. A lose to Wisconsin will do (and it's probably likely, in fact).
Then M would just need some teams to lose in front of them without having to beat Wisconsin themselves. Obviously I'd rather go for a conference title but an 11-1 Michigan that gets to watch from home during championship weekend is probably more likely to make the playoff than an 11-1 team that has to beat Wisconsin again.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:45 PM ^
Why? Wisconsin may be better than earlier in the season(though some of that is their schedule getting easier), but UM would still be clearly favored. Load the box, get after Mertz and I still don't think Wisconsin would have much success against UM.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:26 AM ^
Yes, UM would be favored and let's even say comfortably that they have a 70% chance of beating Wisconsin.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
I was leaving Costco yesterday with a Michigan sweatshirt and the doorman has to check the receipt for whatever reason that they have. He's a Buckeye as I live in the middle of this stench. He goes on to tell me that we're looking to get you back for not showing up last year. Like what?
Ohowihateohiostate, but you got to think about the bigger picture. We need OSU to knock MSU out and then we get a chance to destroy OSU's season. Beating OSU with 2 losses would be so rewarding, but beating OSU when they have the CFP on the line is approaching nirvana.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
538 puts the odds of MSU winning out at 9%. We're at a solid 27%, which means if the two probabilities are independent of each other (they should be, but these stats models do weird things sometimes), the odds of both happening are 2.4%. So... not a very likely scenario.
The funny thing in all this to me is that, as pissed off as I was to lose to MSU, it doesn't really matter. If we beat Maryland and OSU, we likely win the B1G East and have a playoff spot to claim with a B1G championship win. If we had beaten MSU, odds are we'd be going into the OSU game will all the same things on the table.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
If we beat MSU that puts us at 11-1 after OSU and a solid chance at a playoff. People dont realize there is only 1 team that can lose a game the rest of the season. 6 specific losses to 6 specific teams and this whole thing turns upside down. Tell me what happens here..
Um losses to OSU
Msu losses to PSU
Msu beats Osu
Cincy loses
Oregon loses
ND loses
Thats just 6 losses (yes MSU beating OSU is the longest of shots)
November 15th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
Without a doubt this could happen but given MSU is last in the country in pass defense, OSU is 6 in passing offense, and the game is being played in the Shoe I highly doubt MSU wins the game. Bonus pick PSU will upset MSU in the final game.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
MSU is going to keep it close for maybe a half but OSU will pull away in the final stanza. MSU's only hope is Stroud suddenly throwing a basket of picks and/or OSU RBs getting fumbleitis and/or the OSU DL getting hamblasted by MSU's OL. I think OSU wins by at least two touchdowns.
But I also bet that MSU has an easy time of it with PSU. Walker is going to go off.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:13 PM ^
PSU has the 2nd best defense in the big 10 in terms of points allowed. Walker will get his, but I’m thinking it’s going to be a sludgefart of a game. If PSU gets TDs instead of settling for FGs, they should win.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
People seem to keep overlooking the fact that they still have PSU too. It may be at home but it's going to be a tough match up for them if Clifford and Dotson are healthy. Two big factors: poor MSU pass defense against Clifford/Dotson and MSU has struggled mightily against better defenses (ours excluded, which also clearly has some holes).
Regardless, I think OSU is about to light their defense up, so it's a moot point.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
They will have big problems against PSU's defense. They don't match up well with OSU either, but if they can get Nailor back they have an outside chance at trying to win in a shootout.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
If MSU beats OSU this week, they will absolutely stomp PSU the following week. I'd bet a few mortgage payments on that.
I've seen this "fading away act as the season goes on" act with Franklin-led PSU squads (the 2014, 2015 and 2018 squads) in the past - with the biggest similarities to the 2015 squad (remember U-M beating up Hack in mid-November that year, in a game where PSU was still relatively close score-wise and could have won?).
If MSU beats OSU, 2021 would be analogous to the 2015 PSU @ MSU season finale (which MSU won by 39 points). A MSU team gunning for a Championship playing at home against a mentally weak, poorly coached, unmotivated PSU team that doesn't want to be out there in the cold weather 2 days after a Holiday and is primarily playing the game because they are contractually obligated to do so.
Shoot, 2016 MSU @ PSU was like that too (just the opposite way).
(Un)luckily for me, I was at that 2015 game and I have tickets for 12 days from now too. Another similarity. I'm sort of dreading it already.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:56 PM ^
Jesus Christ. Sorry, man. I'm tossing you an upvote like a buck to a homeless guy on Wacker Drive. Your boys played with heart Saturday.