Is there a path
We all know what happens when OSU beats sparty but what if the Spartans win? Is it conceivable that if Michigan beats OSU perhaps in similar or more comfortable fashion, Spartans go to B10CG and lose. Does this get one loss Michigan into the Playoff.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
I think they would have to put Michigan in. In that scenario we would have wins over OSU, at Penn State, and a blowout win on the road vs Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion). Our only loss would be a controversial loss to an 11-2 MSU team.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
In the highly unlikely event that they were to beat both OSU and Penn State, there is still a good chance they would lose to Wisconsin. Stating the obvious, but Wisconsin is playing much better now than when we walked all over them.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
I think there's still an excellent chance Sparty loses to Penn State ... so yeah.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
I'll be honest, I could care less about the Playoff.
I just wanna beat ohio state. Means more than a Playoff appearance or B1G Title at this point. JMO ?♂️
November 15th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
What bullshit luck and right on par for our fanbase if somehow this is the season we finally beat Ohio St. and it wouldn't even land us in the playoff (at 11-1 to boot).
November 15th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
It’s even more simple than that. If Michigan wins out they will be in the playoffs.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
Not necessarily if Oregon and Cinci both win out and Bama beats UGA, but yeah, with like 97% certainty, an 11-1 Michigan would be in.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:10 PM ^
I've heard UM is a darkhorse, so you never know.
Also, is it inconceivable that PSU beats Sparty?
November 15th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
Do we get to the Rose Bowl if we — HYPOTHETICALLY — lose to OSU, as does MSU? Assuming obviously OSU is BigTen champ and goes to CFP. Or does MSU have a shot at that point or the Big Ten west champ?
November 15th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
Depends on who the Rose Bowl wants. Basically depends on who is ranked higher at the end of the season. Could only help for Ohio state to beat msu by a lot.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:31 PM ^
Yes, if we beat Maryland and OSU wins the conference, the Rose Bowl is the worst case scenario. We would get the nod over MSU. The West Champ would have at least three loses, more likely four (Wisconsin is more likely to make it with three loses than Iowa with two) so no chance for them.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Legit ??
November 15th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
This is getting downvoted but it’s such a damn good question. Imagine leaving an 11-1 team off whose only “loss” was to #3. I say they give Cincy the boot and all hell breaks loose
November 15th, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
Oregon will lose anyway so it could be us and Cinci. Also a chance Bama drops below us if they lose to UGA.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:21 PM ^
An undefeated Cincy will be in no matter what happens. There is a lot of "fairness" sentiment for Cincy this year, even if everybody knows they are not one of the 4 best teams.
Also in "fairness", the Pac 12 will not be left out yet again if 1-loss Oregon is the champion.
The SEC champion will never be left out.
So if the above happens, the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and SEC #2 will be left duking it out for the remaining one spot.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:19 PM ^
Beat Maryland.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
Exactly.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Beat Terps. Beat oHIO. Everything else will happen as it is meant to.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:53 PM ^
I truly believe at this point Michigan controls its own destiny. That's the way the committee wants it. Michigan beats Ohio. They are in.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
Beat Maryland.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
If Alabama loses to Georgia and Oregon drops either game with Utah it is possible to have a two one loss B1G teams in the playoff (a scenario where both MSU and Michigan win out), correct?
Those 4 teams being Georgia, MSU, Cincinnati and Michigan.
Of course all of this is on the unlikely possibility that OSU drops the next two.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:27 AM ^
What are the odds for OSU winning against both Michigan and MSU, OSU losing to one of the two, or OSU losing both game. OSU wins both 53.2%. OSU wins one of the two 41.5%. OSU loses both 5.2%.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
The only real answer to that question is "maybe."
U-M would have a win over OSU, yes, but in that case it's a 9-3 OSU. Wisconsin (likely the B1G Champ in this scenario) is perhaps now U-M's best win. Which is fine, but the problem is Notre Dame can now say the same thing. So an 11-1 Irish team is back in the picture too, and arguably equal to U-M in the committee's eyes (a 11-1 non conference-championship team that didn't even have to deal with the gauntlet of a challenging 13th game).
And there just might be too much "other traffic" out there too: (1) a 13-0 Cincinnati, (2-3) 2 1-loss SEC teams with Alabama defeating UGA, and (4) a 12-1 Oregon out there too. The less traffic the better, of course, for U-M. But there's no telling how much traffic there will be.
So ...................... maybe.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
It'd be tough to put ND in over any power 5 one loss team, in my opinion (but what is that worth). Cincinnati's good fortune is that they beat Notre Dame because otherwise they'd get screwed over for ND in a heartbeat.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
Cinci picked the right year to schedule and beat ND, that is for certain.
On a tangent ....... Virginia @ Pittsburgh is a game to at least keep an eye on this week. If Virginia wins, they likely win the ACC Coastal. I know the ACC isn't great this year, but there becomes a chance that ND will be able to put "4-score road win over ACC Champion" on their resume.
In the specific scenario the OP is outlining, and presuming the above, I'm honestly not sure there's much differentiation between U-M and ND's resumes. ND has wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, 500-ish FSU and USC teams, the ACC Champ, and then other flotsam. That's not a stunning resume.
U-M has wins over Wisconsin, a 9-3 OSU, a 7-5 PSU, perhaps the MAC champ, and then no other Power 5 teams that finished above 500. That's not dramatically better than ND's resume.
The committee will do whatever they want, of course, but if (1) ND and U-M are rather alike, and (2) you can't put ND ahead of Cinci, logically (3) there's no real reason that "put U-M ahead of Cinci" should follow.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
Yeah, it's a coin flip. It's not supposed to work this way, but I honestly think we would get in over ND simply because people are tired of ND in the CFP, while we have never gone to the CFP. That would put us in over them.
Plus they have played like dogshit the times they have gone. Who wants to see that again?
November 16th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
I disagree with this. The committee has already indicated, by jumping Michigan over Staee, that Michigan's final record if they win out would be viewed as 10(11) - 1(0).
It would be like Armando Galarraga's 28-out perfect game.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:15 PM ^
When it comes down to it CIncy will be ranked 5th when it matters. I think the committee will do this no matter what the outcomes. Cincy and Oregon losing opens things up a lot though.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:08 AM ^
The only chance ND finishes ahead of 11-1 Michigan is if the committee was impressed enough by their win over UVA this weekend (which was impressive to be fair) to vault them over Michigan and somehow holds Michigan off despite playing a vastly inferior final two opponents.
But if Michigan is still ahead of ND tomorrow there's no chance for ND to pass them and it's still almost certain Michigan would pass them right back with a win over OSU, even a 9-2 OSU. A win over OSU (even if it makes them 9-3) is still 1) far more impressive than ND second best win which is...uh, the Purdue team that OSU just crushed by 28? and 2) far more impressive than any of ND's remaining opponents. Remember, the committee already thinks Michigan is better, how is that going to change if Michigan wins out against a much more difficult final two games?
Michigan would have significantly better SOS, SOR, Game Control, a closer loss (on the road no less). This would be a very easy call precisely because of how similar the resumes are. Same record, no conf title game so then it's easy to go the metrics and UM will be leading in all of them fairly easily.
Very, very unlikely ND is ahead of an 11-1 Michigan but if there's any chance, we'll find out tomorrow.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
Don’t know just win out and let the chips fall where they may
November 15th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
Beat Maryland. Beat OSU. Do that and good things await.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:19 PM ^
Buckeyes will pummel Sparty. With targeting. Second half.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:34 PM ^
I like it. All 22 Buckeye starters are called for targeting in the second half.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:39 PM ^
I'm just excited for the OSU MSU game because one of them does have to lose.
November 15th, 2021 at 9:47 PM ^
Sorry - not worried that Sparty will pull a 2015-flukish win at OSU again. This OSU team can run and throw whereas the 2015 squad couldn't pass against good team.
Who has MSU beaten that is a big win except UM?
We have wins at PSU and UW - far better than their win at Miami.
It's all about (a) don't overlook Maryland (please!) and (2) use the mesh D that worked on 4th down vs. PSU.
November 15th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^
Not likely
November 15th, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^
c'mon man.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Yes, but strait is the gate and narrow is the way.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:26 AM ^
I’m pretty sure the right answer is that somehow we’d get fucked.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:07 AM ^
If both Sparty and us run the table, there will be a good chance WI will beat sparty in the B1G. We would get into the playoffs ahead of sparty. I'm concerned Alabama will beat Georgia by a FG and both will get into the playoffs. If Oregon and Cincy win out, then Michigan will be the team left out.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:46 AM ^
Rooting wise, Michigan to win out, OSU to beat MSU, Georgia to beat Alabama, and Utah beats OR once out of their two meetings. Then we will be in ahead of ND. 1. Georgia, 2. Cincy, 3.Michigan, and 4. ND or OU. Michigan would have a great chance beating Cincy but will have a tough game in the NC game against Georgia.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:21 AM ^
If UM beats OSU, I don't care about anything else.
November 16th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
No matter what happens this week I feel a strong possibility that PSU beats MSU. If Walker gets shutdown MSU is in trouble.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Simple. In this scenario, MSU beats OSU, UM beats OSU, and PSU beats MSU. UM and OSU tie for top of the east with UM having the tiebreaker. If UM wins out, it will work out well for the good guys! First, let’s beat the snot out of Maryland.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Simple. In this scenario, MSU beats OSU, UM beats OSU, and PSU beats MSU. UM and OSU tie for top of the east with UM having the tiebreaker. If UM wins out, it will work out well for the good guys! First, let’s beat the snot out of Maryland.