Are We Sure Michigan's Defense Won't Be Good in 2021?
The following post comes with some caveats. I realize Michigan's individual defenders did not, on average, cover themselves in glory last season. We all know this. Clearly, some units take big steps forward and everything clicks and some units flounder for reasons that may not be discernible from the outside looking in. Furthermore, I am taking educated guesses as to how the defense will look based on Seth's Neck Sharpies article and just plain common sense. I think MacDonald and Linguist will try to be more flexible with the personnel than Don Brown was. With all this being said, let's run down each position:
RUSH END - 2/3 DT, 1/3 DE. Aiden Hutchinson seems tailored made for this position. Julius Welschof is still a bit raw but physically, he's right out of central casting: really long, 285 lbs, very good quickness. Gabe Newberg and a beefed up Braiden McGregor also seem like obvious natural fits.
DEFENSIVE END - Generally speaking, 3-4 defenses like defensive ends who are long and can move well laterally because that length and side-to-side ability helps to buy the linebackers and safeties an extra beat to figure out where to fill against the run. Everyone expects Chris Hinton to take that next step and be a stud for us, regardless of scheme. But the fact that he and Mike Morris and Rayshawn Benny were all believed to be better offensive tackle prospects by various coaching staffs and/or recruiting sites early in their HS careers is an indication they probably have the physical tools necessary to play in a 3-4.
NOSE TACKLE - Mazi Smith is an athletic freak who was particularly known for his strength coming out of HS. Now that Don Brown isn't trying to slim him down, I expect Smith to play at 315+ and be an absolute beast in the middle. Technique and consistency might be an issue. That's always been the potential sticking point with Smith. But physical ability to play the nose shouldn't be a stumbling block. Donovan Jeter has taken a loooong time to develop and he still struggles with his pad level. But he'll be big enough and experienced enough to give us quality play in the middle if the light bulb turns on.
RUSH LINEBACKER - 3/4 DE, 1/4 LB. I don't expect this position to drop into coverage too much. Again, from a physical standpoint, Taylor Upshaw and David Ojabo are certainly up to the task. With the way these two guys run in space, not having their hand in the dirt may be a real benefit. Kechaun Bennett is definitely a good fit for this position.
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER - 3/4 LB, 1/4 DE. Ben VanSumeren will surely get the nod to start the season. For what it's worth, I thought this type of position was NHG's best fit coming out of HS. And Jaylen Harrell and Junior Colson are perfect for this role.
MIDDLE LINEBACKER - 2/3 LB, 1/3 Viper. Fast fast fast, especially in coverage. Think Devin Bush or faster. McGrone would have been good here but you know who might be even better? Michael Barrett. Josh Ross can provide a steady veteran presence rotating with Barrett, especially against the more run heavy opponents on our schedule. Mullings and Hood seem like good fits. Don't be surprised if Anthony Solomon ends up here as well if he can continue to fill out.
STRONG SAFETY - 2/3 SS, 1/3 Viper. Brad Hawkins will be fine in this role. Talent is more of an issue than fit as this appears to be a great match. Solomon is an awkward fit if he's forced to play here. Hopefully Mohan can make the transition. Some of the candidates for the new nickelback position are potential fits as well and I could see Makari Paige would be intriguing if he can slap on some serious weight without losing any athleticism.
NICKELBACK - 2/3 CB, 1/3 SS. Sammy Faustin is a clear fit here. Like Hawkins, talent is more of a concern than fit. Quinten Johnson played cornerback in HS but he doesn't have the hips and length to survive full-time on the outside so maybe this is where he was destined to play. Jordan Morant also played a ton of cornerback in HS and R.J. Moten might be the most athletic of the three. I'm going to have to disagree with Seth and pencil Moten in as the starter at strong safety in 2022. I think Morant is going to really surprise Michigan fans at nickelback moving forward.
FREE SAFETY - Earl Thomas clone. Yes, everyone is looking for this but I believe speed and play making in coverage will be emphasized even more. Daxton Hill is perfect (obviously). Rod Moore did not look as fast on film as his track numbers would have suggested but let's hope he has what it takes. Paige is not a fit here in my opinion.
CORNERBACK - Ugh! I have to believe that zone coverage is going to be beaten into the ground in practice. This could actually be a great transition year because they are already so well versed in man coverage technique. Gemon Green is too skinny but he should still be solid. Gray, Turner, Perry and DGW all felt like good fits as zone corners coming out of HS. Maybe a new position coach and creative coverages help this position punch above its weight.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
With a little maturity and 1-2 Portal pickups, this D can be very good!
February 8th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
I'm not sure about anything, these days.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
this is where I land too
I just assume that in spite of talent, hard work, coaching, and effort it'll be a sucky tire fire. Then, if I am wrong, at least my shift in mood is positive (the sweet elixir of low expectations).....
February 8th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
Bingo. The last 20 years of Michigan football has taught me not to believe in anything good till it happens. And you better soak that in cause some bad shit is coming soon.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
No, we are not sure. Yes, it is still more likely than not to be average
February 8th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Average would be an improvement
February 8th, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
I agree with your assessment.
Per the OP, I don't know what he means by "Good". If "Good" means that our defense isn't a tire fire and our CB's don't look like DII players then I think we can get there next year. If by what he means by "Good" is a top three defense in the B10, then I think that is highly unlikely, but I would welcome such a result!!!
February 8th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Rayshaun.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
I don't know anything
February 8th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
Julia Garner is amazing. I’m going to miss Ozark, but “bein’ I’m from Missourah” I can confirm that accents were from Georgia, not southern Missouri.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
Can confirm. Filmed right near me in Georgia too.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Pure projection here but it’s possible they take a step forward. There are sure to be some learning curve issues especially if we don’t get full spring practice should COVID prevent it. That’s said, there is talent on the the roster, hopefully some optimism for the players getting to do something new with likable coaches, and we will give teams new looks from the last few years. If we can develop the guys we have on the line and scheme around the secondary issues and/or transfer portal some guys in at both spots, there’s no reason the D can’t be good enough to win most games on the schedule. That said, the offense needs to carry this team and year 3 (or 2.5 or whatever) of Gattis needs to yield some results - cohesive, smart game plans game in and game out.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
I'm not criticizing your post but am disappointed in the (very real) idea that COVID will be around for spring practice. FFS, we have a vaccine. Let's get this out there so that we don't have this ongoing albatross hanging over our lives!
*sorry, this ends my COVID ranting for today
February 8th, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
I assume we will have it scheduled just a question of outbreaks and such. The entire winter sports program did just have to pause for two weeks so will that much be different in a couple week? I hope it won’t happen but who knows
February 8th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
I remain in a wait and see mode. Before Don Brown was shown the door my thought was the defense next season won't be any better than this past season, and has the potential to be worse. It all depends on how effective the new DC and staff members are in coaching up the players.
Will "viper" be a thing of the past now that Don Brown is gone? I thought that position was unique to Brown.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
'VIPER' is a name DB gave to his hybrid space player - a cross between a safety and linbacker. Pretty much every defense in use today has some flavor of a hybrid cross between a safety and a linebacker on the field. Their name and use may be, schematically, a little different, but they're all some form of VIPER.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Thanks for the explanation. I knew my question had bits of dumb in it.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
Don't sell yourself short - your question had lots of dumb in it...
JK, Durham...
February 8th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
Comment worth it just for the Caddyshack reference.
And for the record, my father never liked you.....
February 8th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
This is true. My wife can't believe how dumb I can be sometimes.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:23 PM ^
Don Brown ran a very very conventional defense, with one position being half safety and half linebacker, which we called "Viper" but many other teams called something else (Star is a popular designation). I know Brown thought offenses would be all, "Woah! What is this?" but there's nothing too crazy about having a hybrid position. If the Ravens defense is any indication (I highly encourage everyone to read Seth's previous post), Michigan will have a bunch of hybrid type players. Hence the nickname "Amoeba defense"
Not only would this make Michigan's defense extremely unique (and thus difficult to prepare for) but it also means we can better utilize uniquely talented players who may be square pegs in a round hole on most other teams.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
if Don Brown was everything that was wrong with our Defense, it has to be better this year because he's gone.....
Right?
February 8th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
The only sure things in life are death, taxes, and an overall negative UM fanbase.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
What in the last 20 years of Michigan football would give you a positive fanbase?
February 8th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
2016 CITRUS BOWL CHAMPIONS
February 8th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
Optimism is good. After reading your breakdown position by position, I can't see any team scoring on this defense.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^
Thumbs up, sir, for the best chuckle of the day so far.
February 8th, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
I am on the same page. I was wondering just how many points the defense will score.
February 8th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
Re: Cornerback
they only seem like good zone fits bc they are a step slow. We don’t know if they actually have the necessary ability to process where to be in a zone quickly enough to make up for foot speed. You don’t just become good at zone bc you’re slower, you need a higher football IQ.
i.e. Richard Sherman is a very good zone corner because of his understanding
February 8th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
This is a good point. Turner is supposedly a bit of a savant and he played both cornerback and safety in high school. So presumably he is good in space and has the requisite IQ. Perry played a lot of off man coverage in high school. No, that is not technically zone defense but it's much closer than press coverage. DGW played a lot of off coverage as well and displayed safety-esque ability coming up to support the run. That's not proof of coverage ability but it's still an important aspect of being a zone cornerback.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
a lot of changes in terms of coaching and presumably system and terminology, so there is going to be an adjustment period for sure.
Personnel is good enough to be in the middle of the B1G, but where is a shot in the dark.
MacDonald is a complete unknown: he could be great, he could be terrible.
Recruiting with Linguist has been impressive so far though and getting some actual DTs is good, but I doubt that it will payoff next year...maybe in the future though
February 8th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
yes. the past has shown us we cannot have good things. the only way to break out of this cycle is to give up hope so that the teenage osu fan controlling this simulation of reality finally gets bored and goes outside for some fresh air.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
I too am cautiously optimistic, but you're making a lot of assumptions about unknown/unproven players based on recruiting hype or mgoblog scouting reports.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
I'm sure that baring a radical shift on the other side of the ball it won't make a difference. Our head coach's insistence on trying to win every game with defense means it's almost impossible for us to beat a competent offense. See the multiple top five defenses under Don Brown that all lost at least 3 games.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
They were 2-11 for the past few years and then ended up in the 60's last year. I'd expect them to finish in the 20-25 range this year. They have some holes, but they have also recruited at a level that means bad opponents shouldn't be destroying them like last year. My guess, around 20th in the country.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
The 2019 and 2020 defensive recruiting should show improvement in 2021, if the team gets to work together. The returning starters and the top-heavy defensive talent from those classes should...should...should lead to more good play on the field. Heck, throw in the newest 2021 guys, and you likely have at least two rotational guys among Colson, Hood, Benny, and Rooks.
Jalen Perry, Seldon, Donovan GW--one of them has to be ready. Q. Johnson, Mullings, Morant, Moten, Paige, NHG--two of them have to step up. I'd expect Braiden to aid Aidan.
February 8th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Tell that to MSU and Rutgers.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
This should have been a diary...
Nonetheless, I'll say the defense will be better this year. Why, you ask? Well, let me tell 'ya... Because the defensive coaching will be different. There was a very clear disconnect between coaching and on-field play last season. I mean, there is just no way that McGrone and Ross were coached to put themselves into the wrong gap nearly every play (usually the same gap). There was no way Hill was coached to be nowhere near the ball while playing hero-ball on nearly every play. There was no way that entire defense was coached to play so out of sync for entire games!
Don Brown and staff were not/are not stupid - they know how to coach a really good defense, and they want to win! But, for whatever reason, those guys were turned off by players on the field. There was no synchronized team effort that we saw in previous seasons. There was a lot of missed assignments and hero-ball where we didn't see it previously. There was no effort by the players to do the right things when a play was going south. Those issues are very different from the obvious 'crootin-neglected DT and CB positions lacking top talent.
If the new coaches are on the same page with the players, and we get a synced team effort, the defense will be better.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
What I’m sure of is that half of the guys you listed I had either forgotten about or haven’t heard about. Not sure if that’s a good sign or not. But it certainly is a sign of something.
February 8th, 2021 at 6:35 PM ^
Same. When you're talking about quite a few projected starters in your post who have barely seen the field, that's not great (Mazi, Ojabo, Faustin...)
February 8th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
Sure they could be decent. But you essentially projecting a depth chart doesnt inspire me with confidence.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
The absolute certainty that many have regarding our impending doom seems really weird to me. Harbaugh's teams at Michigan have all had very good defenses with the exception of one team in the dumbest season in college football history. Maybe we'll suck again. There's a pretty damn good chance we won't. We still have probably the second most talented roster in the conference.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
The demise of our defense didn't happen over night. There was a process that lead to it being so bad and the end results were predictable. Sure they are trying to right the ship now, but the fact that the staff couldn't see this coming in the first place is troubling and doesnt inspire confidence in their ability to not make similar mistakes.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
It's literally a completely different defensive staff with the exception of Nua.
February 8th, 2021 at 6:40 PM ^
And? Do the new coaches play DT and CB? Optimism about the staff and recruiting doesn't change the fact that recruiting there has been generally terrible for the last few years.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
Most of the defensive staff are new. so the "why didn't they see disaster coming?" isn't particularly relevant in projecting to next year.
February 8th, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Harbaugh didn't see it coming? That's on him.
As for this coming year, I dont think you can fill those holes in one year.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Michigan has the pieces. They need a fundamental scheme which will put them into position to succeed. Not some fire drill chaos crap leaving people on an island to cover receivers that can’t cover their receiver. This was literally rolling the dice and hoping the other team fucks up! I think Michigan’s defense will be better in 2021 and much more motivated to succeed.
February 8th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Queue up revenge tour, 2021