Why Wisconsin will probably win the West Division
I’d much rather face Nebraska than Wisconsin if we manage to beat Ohio State and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game. S&P+ gives Nebraska a mode of 7 wins and Wisconsin a mode of 6, but damn the statistics it still looks to me like we’re going to have to play Wisconsin again.
To get Nebraska instead of Wisconsin in the championship game:
A. If Nebraska wins the head-to-head on Oct 29, they’ve won the West (unless they lose all four remaining games—@Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, @Iowa—and Wisconsin wins out). But S&P+ only gives Nebraska a 33.6% chance of beating Wisconsin.
B. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and all its other games, Nebraska has to win out—including Ohio State on Oct 29. Wisconsin is a 2:1 favorite or better in each of its remaining games; Nebraska only has a 14.3% chance of beating Ohio State and only a 1.5% chance of winning out.
C. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and Nebraska loses to Ohio State, then Wisconsin would have to lose at least one more game. The greatest chance is Oct 22 @Iowa (34.5% chance of losing), next greatest vs. Minnesota Nov 26 (24.1% chance).
Looks to me like the most likely thing is that Wisconsin wins the head-to-head on Oct 29 pretty easily and wins out, Nebraska loses to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, and Wisconsin goes to the championship game for a rematch with either Michigan or Ohio State.
Ohio State needs to lose 2 of these to make the Game irrelevant in determining the Big Ten Champion:
@Penn State 10/22 (25.6%), Northwestern 10/29 (3.5%), Nebraska 11/05 (14.3%), @Maryland 11/12 (7.7%), @MSU 11/19 (4.8%)
October 21st, 2016 at 5:29 PM ^
I think you're right, but that's a lot of parsing for what seems to be a logical progression based on some pretty easy assumptions.
It's reasonable to believe that Wisconsin is close to or definitely a top ten team based on what they've done this year, and simply lost close games to two better teams. If so, it is not a stretch at all to think that they're the best team in the division.
It's reasonable to think that Nebraska is not a top ten team, and that they will lose to Ohio State. And, thus, probable that they will lose to Wisconsin in what appears to be a de facto division title game.
There are some possible exceptions here, obviously. Iowa doesn't look very good but they could pull an upset, and perhaps Minnesota plays the game of its life and beats Wisconsin for the first time since 2003. Not likely, though.
Nice job with the numbers.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
Or in even simpler terms, Wisconsin likely wins the West because they are likely the best team in the West.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^
That's entirely too simplified. Last year MSU was not the best team in the East and probably wasn't even 2nd best yet they won the division and the conference. Weird things happen in football. Given tiebreakers the game against Nebraska is the absolute biggest game left on Wisconsin's schedule. When a schedule comes down to a single game there's a lot of things that can screw up what should normally be a gimmie.
October 21st, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^
To hell with who wins the West. If we beat OSU, but can't beat Wisconsin or Nebraska in Indy, then we don't belong in the playoffs. Period. Bring on the best in the West for the BIG championship!!!
October 22nd, 2016 at 6:20 AM ^
But with no bad weather OR a crazy 8p night game in Madison?
Michigan wins going away. Especially in a rematch, because our offense/defense are forever changing week to week.
I think the OP is freaking out about something that can't be taken lightly, but isn't that big of a deal.
Oh yea, WD says "Beat Illinois."
October 22nd, 2016 at 8:07 AM ^
Why use aggressive language like "the OP is freaking out" when it is obvious that the OP is not even close to freaking out?
October 22nd, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^
At the same time...he did make a thread about it.
October 22nd, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
Your definition of "agressive language" is far different from the definition most humans I know use.
October 21st, 2016 at 9:16 PM ^
That's a good freakin' team, that's why they'll win west. That's my statistical analysis.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^
It's just that Wisconsin already has two conference losses and Nebraska is undefeated, which is why I keep hearing people (e.g. Marcus Ray today) say Nebraska will win it.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:57 PM ^
Nebraska is going to lose to Ohio State. So the Nebraska-Wiscy game is for all the marbles.
If Nebraska wins, Wiscy will have 3 B1G losses and will be out. If Wiscy wins, they and Nebraska will both have 2 losses. But Wiscy will win the head to head tie-breaker.
This is all very good for the Big Ten West which people have been very down on. It's an exciting, competitive season for the B1g West with a nationally relevant big game coming up. And the B1G West representative has shown that it can play toe to toe with the B1G East winner last year, and this year if it is Wiscy.
If we win the Big Ten East, I don't look forward to playing Wisconsin again. I think we will win, but it will be a fight, not a coronation.
October 21st, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^
and as long as Wisconsin stays healthy (especially Cichy and Watt) they will beat Nebraska fairly easily. Cichy seems like a game changer for them - Keeping them close in every game he plays in
October 21st, 2016 at 7:52 PM ^
but Nebraska is waaaaaay better than Michigan
October 21st, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
Well there you have it then...
October 22nd, 2016 at 1:31 AM ^
I want Wisconsin to win the West and not Nebraska.
Realistically, The Game will be a 50-50 tossup sort of deal; if we lose, I WILL BE DAMNED if a Nebraska team that didn't have to play us steals our Rose Bowl slot.
11-1 Michigan is a shoe-in for the Rose Bowl if we miss the playoff AND Wisconsin wins the West but loses to OSU in Indy. However, a 12-1 Nebraska, or even potentially an 11-2 Nebraska could steal a Rose Bowl from us. That would suck.
October 22nd, 2016 at 9:07 AM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
Fuck OSU in the ear.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
Is that... aural sex?
October 21st, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 8:25 PM ^
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October 22nd, 2016 at 12:50 AM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 11:49 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
because they are good????....
October 21st, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 6:48 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 9:01 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 7:30 PM ^
Would be an interesting case study in "Does the committee truly care about SOS?" because Wisconsin, being 11-2, would have this on their resume:
Wins over #5 LSU, #8ish Nebraska, and #2 or 3 M/OSU
Losses by 7 to #4 Michigan and #2 OSU
They would easily have the best resume of any 2-loss team in recent memory. Meanwhile, UW had an atrocious non-conference and didn't play anyone particularly good in conference. Wisconsin would also have to compete with the theoretical #3-4 M/OSU they just beat because they'd only be 1-1 vs them.
October 21st, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
Cause the rest of the West sucks monkey balls?
October 21st, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 6:15 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 8:10 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 8:36 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 5:40 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 7:51 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 6:11 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 6:00 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 6:41 PM ^
Cichy is a game changer for Wisconsin. Makes the defense way better when he's playing.
October 21st, 2016 at 9:05 PM ^
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October 21st, 2016 at 6:02 PM ^
I wasn't really worried which team fromt he West would be the doormat into the playoffs for the real Big Ten Championship: Michigan vs OSU.
October 21st, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 6:59 PM ^
I think both our offense and defense (more packages and more reps) will be better at that time.! I expect the UW Offense can/will improve but think the defense is about at its ceiling - Biegel or not.
October 21st, 2016 at 7:20 PM ^
October 21st, 2016 at 7:40 PM ^
Ah - no
We tripled their yards, tripled 1st downs, tripled turnovers and would have tripled the score if not for choking on field goals.
October 21st, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^
I worked out these scenarios right when the UM-UW game finished, because technically I'm a Badger so I feel somewhat obligated to hope for the best for them (as long as it doesn't involve ruining Michigan's day). I was happy when I realized Wisconsin still has a very real shot at going to the Big Ten championship game, but then I realized Michigan would have to play them again if we do take the East, and thinking about what a damn heart attack the first Weasel Bowl was, I just dread Weasel Bowl II. So ... whatever.
October 21st, 2016 at 9:08 PM ^
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