I’d much rather face Nebraska than Wisconsin if we manage to beat Ohio State and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game. S&P+ gives Nebraska a mode of 7 wins and Wisconsin a mode of 6, but damn the statistics it still looks to me like we’re going to have to play Wisconsin again.
To get Nebraska instead of Wisconsin in the championship game:
A. If Nebraska wins the head-to-head on Oct 29, they’ve won the West (unless they lose all four remaining games—@Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, @Iowa—and Wisconsin wins out). But S&P+ only gives Nebraska a 33.6% chance of beating Wisconsin.
B. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and all its other games, Nebraska has to win out—including Ohio State on Oct 29. Wisconsin is a 2:1 favorite or better in each of its remaining games; Nebraska only has a 14.3% chance of beating Ohio State and only a 1.5% chance of winning out.
C. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and Nebraska loses to Ohio State, then Wisconsin would have to lose at least one more game. The greatest chance is Oct 22 @Iowa (34.5% chance of losing), next greatest vs. Minnesota Nov 26 (24.1% chance).
Looks to me like the most likely thing is that Wisconsin wins the head-to-head on Oct 29 pretty easily and wins out, Nebraska loses to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, and Wisconsin goes to the championship game for a rematch with either Michigan or Ohio State.
Ohio State needs to lose 2 of these to make the Game irrelevant in determining the Big Ten Champion:
@Penn State 10/22 (25.6%), Northwestern 10/29 (3.5%), Nebraska 11/05 (14.3%), @Maryland 11/12 (7.7%), @MSU 11/19 (4.8%)