SIAP: FEI rankings after 3 weeks
Usual caveats apply: it's early, so small sample size and lots of noise. But also pretty cool - FEI's drive-based metrics love our offensive efficiency and are pretty upbeat about our defense too.
Big 10 teams of note:
3. Michigan (#4 offense, #12 defense)
4. OSU (#2 offense, #29 defense)
6. Iowa (#68 offense, #3 defense)
8. PSU (#20 offense, #6 defense)
9. Wisconsin (#38 offense, #4 defense)
30. MSU (#39 offense, #37 defense)
And...
If you're wondering why there's such a big gap between us and the Lil Bros, FEI thinks our win over Washington is much more impressive than Sparty's win over Miami. They have Washington ranked #17 (#26 offense, #10 defense) and Miami ranked #54 (offense #64, defense #46).
Link
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
How much do these really mean when they have Buffalo and Ball St ranked above Georgia last year?
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
Well 2020 was an off year any way you cut it. Keeping that in mind, I’m not surprised that FEI spit out some bizarre results. (And the same goes for early season results like this - some teams, hopefully not but probably yes us, will come down to earth a bit.)
That said, our #90 ranking for 2020 feels pretty accurate.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
Probably skewed by sample size and lack of non-conference games. 2020 was weird. Also Buffalo was actually not bad last year at least. Also it's not like Georgia was in the 90s. Ball state was one spot ahead of Georgia. And Georgia played more games.
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
Anything that has us highly rated is definitely meaningful.
There's no predictive value here. That's why they play the games.
But honestly, after the team has done what it was supposed to for three weeks, it's nice to run all over the internet and collect the feels.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
Soon to be 4. I hope we hang more than 78 on Rutger.
September 23rd, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
This is a metric designed to have strong predictive value. ONLY predictive value I believe (i.e. it's meant to be predictive of future outcomes and not an evaluation of past performance).
September 24th, 2021 at 12:00 PM ^
double post :(
September 24th, 2021 at 12:00 PM ^
Well, no one can see the future and the data is based on the past. They look at play-specific data, so it's possible to lose the game handily but these "predictive" metrics could say the losing team played better on a play-by-play basis and with "luck" factored out.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^
Is this just from this year, or does FEI still incorporate last year's. In previous years I didn't think FEI released their stats until about half the year since it's a drive based metric as opposed to a play based metric like SP+. Do takes a while to get a good predictive sample if only like 10 drives per game as opposed to 60-70 plays.
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
100% this. Lots of noise, high standard errors as a result of the small sample size. So results should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Still fun, though!
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
To be fair, it does closely mirror the play based SP+ which does have a bigger sample and still has some predictive value from last year's results. But yeah, a lot of noise especially coming off weird samples from last year due to COVID too.
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
To be fair, it does closely mirror the play based SP+ which does have a bigger sample and still has some predictive value from last year's results. But yeah, a lot of noise especially coming off weird samples from last year due to COVID too.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
How is OSU's defense ranked ahead of MSU?
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
Maybe because MSU's D isn't looking so good? They seem good against the run, but still gave up over 400 yards to both Miami and Northwestern.
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
they bend but they haven't broke
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^
OSU gave up 408 to Minnesota, 505 to Oregon, and 501 to Tulsa.
MSU gave up 400 to NW, 304 to Youngstown St, and 440 to Miami.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
I'd say Oregon is better than Miami, Minnesota better than Northwestern, and Tulsa better than Youngstown State.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
Yeah, but that's not what they do. It's supposed to be based on who you play and the per possession scoring advantage's against your opponents. Again, based on their metrics, I guess it's correct, but it seems off.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
Obligatory...
Disrespekt!!!!
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
I think the offense may be legit top 20 but I just can't trust the defense yet. The one offense with potential to be really good was Washington and they decided not even to pretend to throw the ball to their third string receivers. That was like playing Army without the triple option. Secondary makes me nervous. Holding off on becoming emotionally invested until I see more.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
Fun fact: Washington passed for 293 yards against us.
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Western's offense is ranked much higher than Washington's and is actually the highest-ranked offense we will face this year outside of OSU. At least according to OFEI. Opponent rank from highest to lowest offensive efficiency:
1. OSU 1.68
2. WMU .85
3. WASH .56
4. PSU .66
5. WISC .32
6. MSU .32
7. NEB .10
8. IU .06
9. NIU -.21
10. MARY -.31
11. NW -.38
12. RUT -.80
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
I predict Andrew Vastardis will win the Dave Rimington award this year.
Or maybe Hunter Dickinson will.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
I'm not buying any fancy stat metric right now that has OSU's defense ranked that good, or Washington's offense that good for that matter
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
Thanks to the OP.
On the same site, there's a F+ ranking, which combines FEI and S&P+. Michigan is third in this ranking as well. I know with S&P+ the preseason projection drops off quite a lot after week 4, and there can be bigger changes in rankings. I'd assume Michigan will jump up as they were ranked 1st when not including preseason projections.
September 23rd, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
It's the thrill of the fight!
September 23rd, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
Iowa #68 offense
It's that high?
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
If you're wondering why there's such a big gap between us and the Lil Bros, FEI thinks our win over Washington is much more impressive than Sparty's win over Miami
I agree, but at the same time MSU also has a stout d-line and our strength is our run game. They are going to commit to stopping it and forcing us to beat them through the air. On the other side of the ball our strength is not our d-line outside of Hutch and they have a good run game. I think when you consider both teams strengths and weaknesses they are setting us up for a very close game that could go either way. Someone is going to have to either shut down the other teams running game more than anyone else has to date and/or make the two QBs be less efficient than anyone else has to date if someone is going to get a convincing victory. It's a bit of the immovable object vs the unstoppable force. I think this will be a close, difficult game for UM. I still like UM to win, but it won't be pretty or convincing IMO. It will be very similar to recent close games minus 2019.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
MSU has had a stout d-line against HORRIBLY inefficient offenses and a solid run game against equally bad defenses. The game is on the road so I expect it to be close, but MSU hasn't seen an offense or defense as efficient as UM and won't until they play them. Whereas, UM has already paved a better defense(Washington) and shut down better offenses(Washington/Western) IMO. We shall see I guess.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
Looking at recent history. I think I prefer playing them on the road.
September 23rd, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
I really doubt MSU is going to shut down our running game. Never say never, but I'll be shocked if that happens.
I don't want to be shocked. Please don't shock me, Sparty.
September 23rd, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
I tend to agree - I don't think it's going to be an easy win at all. Despite FEI, I think it's going to be harder than beating Wisconsin. No stats to back that up, 100% FEELINGSBALL.
Was just trying to explain what FEI sees (in my OP)...
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
I feel like this could be the year, and if not this year, next year, and if not next year, the year after.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
Ahhh. A Brooklyn Dodgers fan.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
I feel like this could be the year, and if not this year, next year, and if not next year, the year after.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
The advanced metrics are still calibrating as more data becomes available. We're still early enough in the season that I don't trust these numbers at this point.
Just beat Rutgers.
September 23rd, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
I'm not drinking the koolaid yet.
September 23rd, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
More for me.
September 23rd, 2021 at 6:49 PM ^
MSU gets no credit for playing Youngstown. They are listed at 2-0.