Playoff Path Just Got a Lot Clearer

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

With Stanford and Utah losing today, the Pac-12 would appear to be out of the CFP picture. That leaves the other four P5 conferences and Notre Dame. So just three things have to happen now for us to make the four-team field:

- OSU beats MSU next week.

- Stanford beats Notre Dame.

- We win out, and beat Iowa in the B1G title game.

- It's also possible that the Big 12 will cannibalize itself in the next two weeks and lose out on a spot.

Right now, the ACC (Clemson) and SEC (Alabama) appear to be in. The B1G champ has a great case for the third spot, so Michigan just needs to be the B1G champ.

Harbaugh took a bunch of guys who went 5-7 last year, and a quarterback that Iowa didn't want, and he's got us in the CFP conversation in late November. He's good.

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kscurrie2

November 15th, 2015 at 2:05 AM ^

So you are basically saying that we cannot beat OSU or Iowa.  Look, I know the defense is concerning, but I was happy to see that our offense could put up some points and win a game for us.  That is a huge leap.  We know that we may be able to outscore another team if necessary.  Glass half full my friend.

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Monkey House

November 15th, 2015 at 2:11 AM ^

what you dopes are missing is the most important part that was the last part of the op thread. Harbaugh has taken a 5-7 team, with a qb Iowa didn't want and has them in contention for the playoffs. are we going to make it? probably less than a 30% chance but ill take those odds over what we have had over the last 10 years around here.

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jonvalk

November 15th, 2015 at 4:22 AM ^

Actually, ESPN had a "not-so-fast-my-friend" article telling Michigan fans the opposite - their team is still in it, even if it requires chaos. Well, guess what we got a little bit of tonight? Chaos. It can happen and it's getting more and more statistically possible. Fans like you who are seemingly afraid for us to get embarrassed in the CFP are the only ones who won't entertain the idea.



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Pepto Bismol

November 15th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^

IF Michigan beats Penn State, Ohio State and undefeated Iowa in the B1G Championship, along with the natural attrition that will occur across all of the other conferences, Michigan has a VERY REAL chance to make the playoff.

Can they win those three games?  Of course.  You obviously don't think they will.  Frankly, neither do I.  Not with what I just saw out the Glasgow-less defense. 

But they can.  And that makes Michigan very much "in contention". 

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raleighwood

November 15th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^

I think that saying "Iowa didn't want" Rudock over simplifies things.  He didn't win the QB job in Iowa.....and the fact that they are undefeated suggests that Ferentz made the right decision (or at least didn't make a bad decision).  That doesn't mean they "ddn't want" or didn't value him.  They just chose to go with another QB.

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Brimley

November 15th, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^

Ferentz catches a ton of crap 'round here due to his schematic tendencies.  But he was a gentleman in letting Jake transfer within his conference.  A LOT of other coaches would've fought it.  Now Ferentz faces the possibility of Rudock leading a team that will ruin his perfect season.  Good for him for being decent.

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growler4

November 15th, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^

I don't think it's a joke.

On the other hand, while we are one play away from being 9-1, we're also a couple of plays away from being 6-4.

I think Harbaugh and Co. have done a really good job in their first year in Ann Arbor. Perhaps their best move was solidifying a shaky, at best, QB situation by getting Rudock to play for 1 year.

While we have a shot, and a number of things have to take place for it to happen, this team has a number of deficiencies which attrition and opponents' film study and game planning have made more apparent in the latter part of the season. IMO, we're not a top 4 team ... but, too, that's why you play the game. Things will sort itself out.

Gotta say though that even if we drop the last 2 games, we'lll have had a nice season.

Just have to build on it. Hoke & Co. also had a nice 1st season, too, but I trust that the new regime will build on it rather than regress. Starts at the QB position and they started working on it as soon as they arrived with O'Korn. 

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victors2000

November 15th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^

fall correctly, we're in. Right? We might not do well while we're there but WE'LL BE THERE. Isn't that GREAT??

The issue I have - and maybe the rest of us - is the irrational DEFEATISM. We won yesterday despite getting our heads handed to us as they gashed us with their running game. If Penn State beats us with the same formula, fine, injuries happen and that was just our fate. We move on. If they don't beat us, we move on even better. And if the dominoes fall correctly ALL THE WAY TO COLLEGE PLAYOFFS. My question is, if we get there, is he still going to be just as negative?

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buckeyejonross

November 15th, 2015 at 2:25 AM ^

This is not at all true.

Look, OSU didn't particularly step on IU's throat when they had a two TD 4th quarter lead, but OSU gave up 402 yards on 91 plays. Take out Diamont's 80 yard TD run, and Indiana was even less efficient. And that's 6 more plays than they ran on you. In two less overtimes.

OSU gave up 100 less yards and 14 less points than Michigan. And Indiana couldn't do anything until Diamont came in. Sudfeld couldn't move the ball. He finished 10/21 for 134 yards and no TDs before he got hurt. And while on its face that sounds bad, "OSU gave up a bunch of yards to IU's backup QB" consider: IU's backup is basically a running back and requires a totally different game plan to defend. One OSU didn't prepare for. Diamont ripped off an 80 yard TD run on his second series, then OSU immediately fumbled their next possession, and IU went on their failed tying drive.
OSU was actually having a good defensive day until Sudfeld went out. Howard was equally ineffective until he got hurt also, averaging 2.4 yards per rush. His backup came in and rushed 30 times for 45 yards. Indiana got roughed up defensively until there were 10 mins left in the fourth quarter. And while those yards count, they skew what actually happened.

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buckeyejonross

November 15th, 2015 at 2:48 AM ^

That's not at all what I said. Thad Matta said OSU "looked just as bad" as Michigan did. I challenged him on that statement.
I'm also not drunk! I'm painfully sober. Hence why I'm arguing about college football at 3 am on the Internet :/

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Stu Daco

November 15th, 2015 at 3:01 AM ^

Mmmkay well OSU was losing at halftime with Sudfield and Howard in and was losing in the third quarter with Diamont and Redding in.  They also had two more turnovers than Michigan, 37 more penalty yards, the exact same number of points in regulation, and went 2-14 in third downs.

Next time, just tell us you're drunk.  It's far more excusable.

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buckeyejonross

November 15th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^

Did you watch any of the game? Our offense moved the ball well and then stalled out in the red zone with turnovers and missed FGs. Outside of 'Zeke, the offense played poorly. I guess I was referring to the defensive effort, since that's the side of the ball Michigan looked poor on. OSU's passing offense did not look especially sharp against Indiana. Michigan's passing offense moved the ball better, clearly.

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EGD

November 15th, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^

I watched that game. I think the M and OSU performances against IU were comparable. I do think OSU's victory was slightly more comfortable because OSU was playing from ahead and won in regulation, but OTOH they didn't have a deal with Sudfeld and Howard the whole game.

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BigBlue02

November 15th, 2015 at 3:07 AM ^

Of course OSU doesn't look bad when you take away 80 yard rushing touchdowns. Fucking genius! Michigan looks better when we take out a fluky punt return TD also. Take away the overtime score and we let up the same amount of points as OSU. Is that how it works?

Joined: 06/29/2009

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buckeyejonross

November 15th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^

Ugh. Not discounted. But I don't understand why people think a defense can just go from defending a pass first QB to 100% wildcat in the span of a few plays with no practice and look equally as stout. It's the reason coaches run wildcat plays. To catch the defense unprepared and off guard. Why is it unreasonable to say a defense looked bad defending a kid for 10 minutes when they spent all week planning to defend his opposite? Regardless of whether Diamont is a good QB (and he's not) he can run fast. And that's what he did.

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natesezgoblue

November 15th, 2015 at 1:54 AM ^

I think the B1G champ gets in. The only way I don't seeing the B1G champ getting in is if we end up playing a 1 loss Iowa team. With Iowa having Purdue and Nebraska left, I think that's unlikely.

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Quailman

November 15th, 2015 at 2:12 AM ^

This is a legit, snark-free question?

Why?

We just saw a bunch of teams ranked in that 6-12 range that would be fighting for those last few spots lose tonight. Do we really think that these teams that would end up finishing the season ranked 6-8 deserve to play for a title? I get it if you have a 5th team that is good and they get left out, that sucks. But if 6 or 7 teams can be considered better than you after 12 games, im not sure you have a good gripe.

 

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Danwillhor

November 15th, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^

Not football. We already known the players and we still have 2 regular weeks and Conference Championship week. No need for 8 unless you want the playoffs to ruin the regular season and become as BS as the million bowl system. 4 is fine, IMO. We need to admit that CFB kinda needs some debate to thrive. If half the season was one big playoff that would actually kill CFB.

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