NFL: ANNUAL "Worst to First" Prediction

Submitted by superstringer on
I have been posting this every year for the last few years.  It's fun, test your skills, ask a friend.  BUT PLEASE:  NO WAGERING.  (And for Gawd's sakes, don't try this at home, cuz we're what you call "professionals.")
 
In every NFL season from 2003* to 2015, except one (2014), a team finished in first place in its division after having come in last place in that division the previous year.  Meaning, a worst to first improvement over one offseason.  (By "worst" or "first," I mean, have or tying for worst or best record in the division; tie breakers are not applied for this analysis, so a team might be "first" for these purposes but have gotten the wild-card or, maybe, no playoff birth.)  In fact, 20 teams did a worst-to-first over those 14 years.
 
* NFL realigned its divisions starting with the 2002 season, so, the results of the 2003 season was the first to have a meaningful "worst to first" analysis under the new divisional alignments.
 
THIS YEAR'S CANDIDATES (meaning, last year's last-place teams in each division):
 
AFC
East - J.E.T.S. Jetsjetsjets
North - Cleveland
South - Jax
West - San Diego er LA er wherever
 
NFC
East - Philly
North - Da Bears
South - Carolina
West - San "We voluntarily fired Jim Harbaugh" Francisco
 
Who ya got?  Which of these fine, er, which of these eight teams is gonna come in FIRST this year?  Of cousre, you can mathematically rule out NYJ, CLE, and CHI, cuz obv.  Philly and Carolina jump off that list, and historic data supports it will be one of those two teams, as those are the two divisions that have seen the most worst-to-first teams.  While I think Dallas will come back to earth, I will go with Carolina.  They underperformed last year, and Atlanta will return to the pack b/c Superbowl losers always do (esp those that blow 25 pt leads).
 
HISTORIC DATA -- IF THIS INFLUENCES YOUR PICKS
 
AFC
 
East:  Only happened once (MIA, 2008).
North:  Only happened once (BAL, 2006)..
South:  Only happened once (HOU, 2011).
West:  Happened four times; last was 2011 (DEN).
 
NFC
 
East:  Has happened 5 times, including four of the last five years.  Prior to that streak, however, only happened once (PHI, 2005).
North:  Only happened once (CHI, 2005).
South:  Hasn't happened since 2009 (NO), but happened five years in a row from 2003 through 2007.
West:  Only happened once (STL, 2010).
 
The complete list of worst-to-first teams since 2003:
2016 - DAL
2015 - WAS
2014 - none
2013 - PHI
2012 - WAS
2011 - HOU, DEN
2010 - KC, STL
2009 - NO
2008 - MIA
2007 - TB
2006 - BAL, PHI, NO
2005 - CHI, TB
2004 - SD, ATL
2003 - KC, CAR
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MadMatt

September 5th, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^

Speaking as a Steeler fan (the photo, therefore, is particularly appropriate), I'd say Cleveland is worth putting on the worst to first watch list this year.  They improved substantially in the off season.  Looking at the other teams in the division:

- I think my Steelers' offense is going to be a monster this year.  But, if Big Ben goes down, who plays QB?  Charlie Batch ain't walking through that door.  Landry Jones has shown he's at best a 50/50 proposition as a starter, even with all the weapons Pittsburgh provides him.  Eventually, Josh Dobbs will be a reliable backup QB, but he's not there yet.  Also, the Steeler CBs are questionable.

- Cincinati could Cincinati on any given season, regardless of how good they are on paper.  Vontez Burfect had the most classically...him kind of preseason.  In the same game, he made an athletic pick-6 interception, and drew a multi-game suspension for a dangerous/ unnecessary hit IN A PRE-EFFING-SEASON GAME!  In the football encyclopedia, his picture is next to the entry for "Million Dollar Talent/Ten Cent Head."

- The Ravens are a solid team, but I see no indication they are a mortal lock to have a winning record.

So, the door is open for the Brownies if they can get out of their own way.  The question is who will play QB for them.  I hear Jabrill has some experience running the wildcat...

Joined: 11/06/2013

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PopeLando

September 5th, 2017 at 9:16 AM ^

Cleveland and Carolina improved over the off-season. Everyone else on that list... didn't. I'll agree with Carolina. I want to believe that Peppers will make that much of a difference, but I watched the Bears-Browns preseason game and was left wondering when the football game would start, instead of the incomplete pass competition

Joined: 08/01/2015

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Caille33

September 5th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^

Carolina is the obvious one but I actually think Jacksonvillecould pull it off too.  I know Bortles is a hot mess but they improved their D again in the offseason.  Indy is going to start 0 and however many games Luck is out for sure.  Houston is starting Tom bleeping Savage.  Tennessee to me is the favorite in this division but if Jax can just get competant QB play for the most part this season I think they could surprise some people.  

Joined: 12/19/2016

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ijohnb

September 5th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^

clue.  I don't understand the NFL.  Quarterbacks can go from "good" to "terrible" in one year.  Running backs are often viewed as close to useless and interchangeable but are often drafted very high.  Aaron Rodgers is generally regarded as one of the best quarterbacks of all time but has only been to one superbowl in like 11 years and appears to enjoy the game about as much as reheated french fries.  Cornerbacks seem to have an effective shelf-life of two years after they have been identified as good before they are "old" or "used up."  Teams hire each other's leftover coaches even if said coaches have a proven track record of completely sucking. 

I really just don't get the NFL.  It seems like a language I don't understand.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

Perkis-Size Me

September 5th, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^

I'd say the only teams with any real shot are Carolina and Philly.

Cam Newton has shown what he can do and now he's got two dynamic weapons in Samuel and McCaffery to go along with Kelvin Benjamin. But any team in the NFC South could make a case for dethroning Atlanta. Probably the most even division in the league, and all four are good enough to make the playoffs. 

Philly has a shot, not because I think they're that good, but because the NFC East is so unpredictable every year. If Elliott wasn't suspended I'd feel differently, but six games w/o arguably your best weapon is a long time, and there's always the chance of a sophomore slump even when he does come back. 

Jets, Browns, and Jags have zero chance. ZERO. The Chargers have some good pieces but Rivers is an old man and they're nowhere near as complete a team as Oakland. Also, who knows what kind of effect the move may have on them. They also have to contend with KC, who is probably good for a wildcard spot anyway. 

Bears aren't going anywhere until A) Trubisky proves he was worth the pick, and B) someone in that division can actually dethrone Aaron Rodgers. Good luck with that. San Francisco can be pretty good eventually with Shanahan, but that division is probably the Cardinals' to lose this year. Seattle isn't what it was 2-3 years ago, and Jared Goff has shown nothing so far to prove that he isn't a bust. 

 

Joined: 11/30/2011

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Well...Well...Well

September 5th, 2017 at 11:45 AM ^

Carolina seems to the obvious choice as many have noted...will be intersting to see what McCaffery can do for them.

I think the Chargers have an outside shot at improving as well. If I recall correctly, they lost several really close games last year - so if they find a way to close out several of those, a winning record is a possibility. Probably not enough to move past the Raiders (and maybe Chiefs) - but I wouldn't be surprised to see them snag the last playoff spot in the AFC.

Joined: 07/24/2012

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Hotel Putingrad

September 5th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^

though I'd honestly pick Jacksonville if they had a quarterback. Problem with Cleveland and the Chargers are their meat grinder divisions. I caught Abit of SF in the preseason, and they are not horrible...could go 8-8 even if Hoyer stays healthy. The Jets may not win a game, and certainly won't win more than two. Don't follow Carolina or Chicago closely enough to wager an opinion on their seasons, but it wouldn't surprise me to see one of them snag a wild card spot while the other one fires its coach mid-season.

Joined: 12/10/2014

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AmayzNblue

September 5th, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^

Cleaveland...
They put Peppers in as wildcat QB and let him play defense and special teams. He houses 4 punts and 8 kick off returns, passes for 3500 yards, rushes for 2200 yards. All the while, maintaining a steady clip of 12 interceptions and 42 TFLs on D.

Almost forgot...he is voted Mayor of Cleveland by November 2018

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