butuka21

November 12th, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^

Why are people so confident? I think we have the talent but I also believe we really need something out of our wide receivers in order to beat them and Ohio. They will need to try and open it up against better competition.

Joined: 11/22/2016

MGoPoints: 2889

butuka21

November 12th, 2017 at 8:31 PM ^

Good analysis, of course I want them to win and believe they can, but we have up until this point no threat at wide receiver. Our defense/special teams will have to score. I'm just confused as to why so many are already locking in them covering. There is no basis behind it other than I'm a Michigan fan and they are going to win. Wisconsin is a good team and at home. They are not perfect nor is there qb but I don't believe running the ball and throwing to tight ends all game is going to work against them.

Joined: 11/22/2016

MGoPoints: 2889

LSAClassOf2000

November 12th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^

That line is more or less what I would have guessed, but as someone said, it's in line with the updated analytics.

It's a winnable game, I think. Wisconsin's offense in particular feeds into what Don Brown seems to do best. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130627

xtramelanin

November 12th, 2017 at 6:33 PM ^

i can see 10 for an impartial semi-educated guess.  not sure what to make of the game this coming week.  while i don't think its likely we'll have a nambla valley game, you can't quite rule that possibility out, either.   

toe meets leather saturday at noon.  i guess we'll have to wait until then. 

Joined: 12/09/2014

MGoPoints: 15439

MichiganMan904

November 12th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^

Bet on us winning this game... I seriously don’t see them moving the ball against us.. Hornibrook is completely garbage their RBs are good but a conventional offense isn’t going to move the ball against our D.. This game will be another low scoring game like last year I have us winning by 10 or more

Joined: 11/05/2017

MGoPoints: 82

Don

November 12th, 2017 at 7:03 PM ^

Hornibrook is second in the conference in passing efficiency.

He's 132/206 for 64% and 1863 yds and 17 TDs, averaging 186.3 yds per game

That's better than all three Michigan QBs combined this season. It's also better than Peters individually, who's completing just over 60% and is averaging 82.5 yds per game. The only statistical category that Peters has a clear advantage in is TD/INTs.

If Hornibrook is garbage, we're no better.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148351

AmayzNblue

November 12th, 2017 at 7:41 PM ^

Hornibrook is not at all garbage, but to be fair those stats are against some incredibly weak opponents. I realize that our QBs are no better, but QBs don’t really play each other. Hornibrook will have to face our D. Closest thing he’s seen to that is...wait for it...Iowa.

Joined: 01/10/2015

MGoPoints: 5016

Don

November 12th, 2017 at 8:34 PM ^

Granted, our defense is better than Iowa's, but Wisconsin amassed over 380 yds in total offense against the Hawkeyes, including over 250 yards rushing.

Meanwhile Wisconsin's D had no trouble with Iowa's offense, holding Stanley to 8/24 for 41 yards in the air, and limiting Iowa to a measly 69 yds rushing.

Aside from all that, the critical difference to me is that it's a home game for Wisconsin. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148351

jmblue

November 12th, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^

It's also better than Peters individually, who's completing just over 60% and is averaging 82.5 yds per game.
To be fair, we should exclude the Purdue game (when he attempted one pass) from the analysis. Peters's average in the last three games is 108.3 per game - still pretty low of course.

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102810

TRUEwolverine

November 12th, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^

But this should be a very good matchup. If nothing else, Peters has shown the ability to avoid the pass rush and find the open man downfield. While acknowledging that we don't know too much of his abilities or his flaws, his ability to evade he rush should prove handy in this one.

I initially thought this was a night game in Madison, which had me worried. Now I am really looking forward to Saturday.

May the best team win.

Joined: 01/22/2011

MGoPoints: 302

bluepalooza

November 12th, 2017 at 6:55 PM ^

I give an edge of M D vs their O.  I give a greater edge to W D vs M O. All that said, game will be closer than anyone thinks. Probably a lot like last year. Pressure clearly on W as they have EVERYTHING at stake.  They lose, there will be no trip to final four even if they win B1G championship.  W is not getting respect due to who they have played. If they lose to Michigan, it will validate those feelings.  W must win out and beat whover they play in Indy and they will have a ticket to CFB championships.

Should M win it will be a huge confidence boost for The Game.  This will be a 7 point game AT MOST.

Joined: 09/02/2017

MGoPoints: 2776

fksljj

November 12th, 2017 at 6:55 PM ^

I'm probably the biggest pessimist on the board and I think this is a winnable game. Not sure if I'm going to pull the trigger and call it a win just yet, though. I have a good feeling it'll be a low-scoring game. Much like last year.

Joined: 11/27/2016

MGoPoints: -9997905

Perkis-Size Me

November 12th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^

Don’t know why so many people are so confident that we’ll win. When was the last time this team put together a complete game, on the road, against a truly good opponent? I’m curious as to what the last big true road was that we won.

If we win on Saturday, this would probably be the biggest road win Michigan has had in over a decade.

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105716

Bigly yuge

November 12th, 2017 at 9:37 PM ^

I think some people are confident bc Wisconsin hasn't played anyone all season long. I think people believe that we can limit their run game and shut down their average QB play. For me, I think we can win, but it will be bc of our offense. If our offense can stay on the field and finish some drives we could really have a good shot. Our run game has been getting better for several weeks now. Peters hasn't turned the ball over and at least forced defenses to respect the pass. Certainly won't be easy by any means, but it's not impossible.

Joined: 09/23/2017

MGoPoints: 3166

Perkis-Size Me

November 13th, 2017 at 8:59 AM ^

Sure, they haven't really played anyone. But we've lost to anyone on our schedule that currently sports a winning record, so we're a big unknown too. And this team hasn't put together a truly complete game over a good road opponent in years. Maybe even a decade back to the '06 ND game. So I'm skeptical until I see it happen. 

Not to say Michigan doesn't have a shot, but the offense will (finally) have to start pulling its weight. I trust Brown to draft up a gameplan to slow down Wisconsin's offense, but if the offense consistently goes three and out, Wisconsin will be happy to sit back and just slowly chip away at the defense. Wisconsin's defense will consistently stack the box and bring the house on Peters until he proves he can consistently beat their defense through the air. Maybe he can, but this is his first TRUE road game. If we win this game it will have to be on his arm. 

If he can hit a few passes and get Wisconsin to back some guys off of the line, and if the defense can maintain the status quo, we've definitely got a shot. Otherwise, I think the result ends like last year where both defenses keep it close, but the end result is never really in doubt because one offense just can't muster anything whatsoever, and the other offense can do just enough. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105716

Carcajou

November 13th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^

"Peters hasn't turned the ball over and at least forced defenses to respect the pass."

Pretty obvious that both Wisconsin and tOSU are going to force Peters to beat them. They'll load the box, and if he can throw, they'll try to confuse him- by mixing various blitzes, and at other times dropping eight.

Michigan has not shown it can beat people over the top, and Peters hasn't shown (much) that he can handle the blitz. He will be severely tested. Go minus on turnovers, and Michigan loses.

The defense will also be tested. They haven't had to handle many long drives from the offenses they've faced so far- the Badgers and Buckeyes are much better than what we have seen. I expect to see them scheming to take advantage of Michigan's tendency to overpursue and nobody from the back seven left on the backside for coutners and bootlegs and reverses and other such trickery. When I saw Maryland try that throwback to the QB, I immediately thought, "J.T. Barrett"- glad we got a look at something like that. Let's hope Don Brown will have them prepared..

 

Joined: 02/26/2009

MGoPoints: 5783

Perkis-Size Me

November 13th, 2017 at 8:50 AM ^

Every time we've played them has been a neutral site game, and at least two of the three times (both bowl games) were against Florida teams that very clearly played like they didn't want to be there. Not that that's Michigan's fault, but beating one hapless, apathetic Florida team and one halfway decent Meyer-coached Florida team, all at neutral sites, don't classify as truly big wins in my book. 

 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105716

AmayzNblue

November 12th, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^

But I’m curious when several of you say things like “free money.” How are you betting that makes you so confident that you will win? Are you taking M or W for the win? What about covering the spread? Are you suggesting M will cover or are you getting W will blow that low number out of the water? What about your O/U?

Just curious

Joined: 01/10/2015

MGoPoints: 5016