October 17th, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
Interesting. The stretch run will be too.
October 17th, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
"Fish don't fry in the kitchen
Beans don't burn on the grill
Took a whole lotta trying
Just to get up that hill
Now we're up in the big leagues
Getting our turn at bat
As long as we live
It's you and me, baby
There ain't nothing wrong with that.
Well, we're moving on up..."
October 17th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
UM deserves to be ahead of PSU and Iowa in the polls. Iowa was exposed as a paper-tiger. Iowa defeated PSU. Soon PSU will get into the tough part of their schedule, and also get exposed.
However....does UM deserve to be ranked all the way up to #6? We will find out 13 days from now, in East Lansing.
#GoBlue
October 17th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
I don’t know if MSU is the qualifier for how high we should be ranked. Now, we beat PSU and MSU, it’s a different story, but those teams individually are like Michigan, lots of questions.
OSU is still the gold standard to how good we are, and by that time, the story might have already been written.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^
If we beat MSU we’ll be ahead of everyone not named Georgia, Cincy, Oklahoma. And could past those last 2
October 17th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
We will not be ahead of Ohio State until they lose again and I think that’s fair, unless we kick Penn State’s ass with a healthy Clifford.
October 18th, 2021 at 8:32 AM ^
The key for national recognition - for UM, MSU and OSU - is beating PSU WITH Clifford. Their backup QB against Iowa was terrible - at best
October 18th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
I pictured the big red dog from the childrens' story.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
I guess my overall point is if we beat MSU, are you picking us to beat OSU? For me, it’s still a strong NO until I see it happen.
I made this point weeks ago (and got negged to oblivion), but I think there are 2 (3?) really good teams, and about 23 others that are interchangeable depending on the way the losses played out. I’m glad we are one of the 23, and I hope we stand out of that group.
October 17th, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^
I don’t care who we beat or by how much. I am not picking us to win that game until it happens. 2018 is fresh in my memory and that’s the LAST time I’ll be that confident going into that game.
October 18th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
Lol, same for me. I’ve gone to most of the home OSU games for the past 18 years. I don’t really have a desire to do it again until we actually get a win under our belts.
October 18th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
I would still go to the game, but until the scoreboard hits zeroes and Michigan is ahead, I’m in an eternal position of BPONE. Not in an outwardly negative way, but my guy is going to say we’re losing until the moment we’ve won.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing, but OSU plays Penn St that week so they could have a good win also.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^
It's really about Cifford's health for PSU. They were up on Iowa 17-3 when Clifford got hurt. Their win over Auburn is looking better each week.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
Yeah, don't see how anyone can look at Iowa's win over PSU at home and not account for Clifford's injury as the major factor. I mean, good for Iowa winning the game they had and everything, but their entire gameplan was to grind out points and count on PSU to accomplish nothing with their backup QB.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
I think that's almost always Iowa's strategy in big games - try to grind out points, not turn the ball over, and play good defense, and hope they're ahead on the scoreboard at the end. It must drive their fans crazy. Because sometimes, when the offense isn't clicking at all and their defense isn't lights out (like on Saturday), they're exposed.
October 17th, 2021 at 11:15 PM ^
Exactly if you're ranking teams, you discount that loss for PSU (they were clearly the better team with their starting QB) and discount the win for Iowa which is why they fell so far. It was pretty clear they weren't close to the second best team but the pollsters put them there by default (and because of their earlier wins over IU and ISU that looked better at the time).
October 17th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
Auburn is still a mystery and possibly pretty bad (like the rest) so one good-ish win doesn't do much for me. Maybe if they beat Ole Miss next week. On the other hand, I suspect I choose to underrate PSU because all their wins seemed to be based on arm punts (which continue to work so something must be there) and other wild cards. PSU rarely dominates and maybe to their credit they find a way to win.
October 18th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
PSU's arm punts, going back 2 or 3 QBs ago, are successful because they seem to have a never-ending flow of WRs who can go up and get it.
October 18th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
I choose to underrate PSU because Michigan fared significantly better against the one comparable game: at Wisconsin. PSU pretty much got dominated that game and just got lucky to win by, what, six?
Clifford has seemed to turn it around. He's pretty good but not great I would say. Had a really good game against Auburn which isn't nothing and was pretty good against a still good IU defense.
October 18th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
our game against wisconsin could have been a lot closer if dax's hit was just a sack instead of a qb game ender. we dominated the first 28 min of that game sure, but who knows what happens in second half if didnt get to chase wolf
it's very similar to discounting iowa's win over psu, imo
October 20th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Nope, Mertz is not a good QB period, what he did on that one drive was not going to happen the rest of the game. No QB Wisconsin put out there would have had any sustained success in that game with the pass rush UM was bringing. With.or without Mertz UM cruises in that game.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
Hate to say it. Even with a win at MSU people, especially on this site, will not like that high of a ranking. Only OSU win works.
October 18th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
I'm just not sold on MSU especially after last week's game. The two big wins would be PSU - with Clifford - and, of course, OSU.
October 17th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
The eye test on all of the Big Ten teams just gives me fits seeing them all as highly as they've been ranked. Except OSU, lately.
Iowa was never the 2nd best team in the country - that was just ridiculous.
For the record, I'm also having a hard time believing UM is #5. The offense just sputters too much.
It's pretty likely PSU, MSU, and U of M take each other out of the picture. Maybe one of them will come up with something big against OSU and at least make it interesting.
October 17th, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
If they could just turn their FG's into TD's it would have a much different tune
October 17th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
What’s funny is all the MSU slappies saying ‘Michigan is overrated’ and ‘Michigan has played no one.’
really ? Who the heck has Spar-tee beat as a signature win? 2-4 Miami? Indiana?
???
October 17th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
What is the combined record of sparties opponents?
October 17th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
17-27, if my math is correct
21-20 is the combined record of Michigan's opponents, currently. After M defeats NW next weekend, it will be 24-24 (for comparison after each team playing 7 games).
October 17th, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
Good analysis as SOS means more now at this point in the season. Go Blue!
October 18th, 2021 at 9:12 AM ^
True but our record is boosted by NIU and Western's wins. If you change it to P5 only Michigan and MSU have very similar records. M's opponents 11-16, MSU 13-20. If you assume that we beat NW then our P5 opponent record will go to 14-20 so nearly identical.
I would put our win at Wisconsin as the best win by either team but beyond that the resumes are pretty much the same IMO.
October 18th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
Huh? What are you talking about? We -- oh, right. . . Northwestern is P5.
October 18th, 2021 at 4:01 AM ^
For the record- Fuck Sparty and their stupid opinions.
There! I feel better.
October 17th, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
Michigan must have had better practices this week than Penn State.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^
Or it's because PSU's "signature loss" came to a team that just got blown out.
October 17th, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
To be fair to Penn State here, it is difficult to have a really good practice that allows one to fairly run all the drills intended when you constantly need to correct for the glare off Franklin's forehead.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
#8 in new SP+ (predictive, not resume-based) rankings:
One below incredibly (as Bill has admitted), stubbornly 'good' Wisconsin
As most of us know, MSU is about as good as Nebraska, with all the clutch/luck while Scott Frost somehow lights his corn flakes on fire every week.
A screenshot for non-subscribers:
October 17th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
Florida receiving the KU bball love.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
Clemson at 4 is just as bad as Wisconsin at 7. In addition to losing to NCST, they've beaten GT, Cuse, and BC by a combined 15 pts.
October 17th, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
It's shocking for sure, but due to that elite defense it's hard to pick a team below them that would be easy favorites over Clemson on a neutral field. Maybe Oklahoma with Williams? But the stats don't parse that out. Even supposedly invincible Georgia only beat Clemson by 7 (which helps explain the ranking)
October 17th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
Well, look at that. Various posters have pointed out and/or scoffed at the Frosties being the best 3-5 team in the country. Here's a poll that agrees.
October 17th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^
Nebraska is, without a doubt, the best 3-5 team in the NCAA
Nebraska is also the worst 3-5 team in the NCAA.
October 17th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
His model incorporates way too much preseason expectations if he still has Clemson at 4, Wisconsin at 7, and Iowa State at 12. Like if it takes an entire season to iron out the preseason expectations built in then your model just is not good
October 17th, 2021 at 6:41 PM ^
I think he's said that keeping recruiting rankings incorporated as a piece has proven to give reliably predictive results overall. His model isn't perfect, as it doesn't parse things like injuries or new QBs, but generally does a good job of anticipating and beating the point spread (57% clip this season). Most of the criticism centers around things like polls and won-lost record, which are far worse metrics for predicting future results
October 17th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Thanks for the screen shot. I am glad not to be a subscriber. A 4-3 FL, then 3-3 Wisc team which was soundly beaten by Michigan at home ranked ahead of our guys? Whatever.
October 17th, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
Anything that has Wisconsin above us right now, at 3-3, while we beat them at their stadium... no credibility to me.
October 17th, 2021 at 6:51 PM ^
Good luck predicting games solely on won-lost record then
October 17th, 2021 at 7:21 PM ^
didn't say that, but nice straw man
October 17th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Good luck predicting games at a better clip then S&P+ then?