rice4114

November 10th, 2022 at 3:21 AM ^

Click the top 8 as winning then click Tennessee and TCU losing this week

Our chances at winning the conference are 28%

Then click on TCU winning

Our chances of winning the conference got to 33%

Im confused.

Joined: 08/26/2010

MGoPoints: 47376

Gondolin

November 10th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^

The way that happens is this: the model works by running 10000 different simulations of the rest of the season. Percentages are based on the number of times a specific outcome occurs within the set of simulations where the specific outcome you select occurs. When you click on as many specific results as OP did the number of simulations where that specific set of results happened is much lower than 10000. With this lower sample size random chance plays a much bigger role and in the simulations with TCU winning the 30% chance we beat Ohio State came up in favor of us in more simulations than in the set of simulations with TCU losing, just by random chance.

Joined: 10/19/2018

MGoPoints: 500

TrueBlue2003

November 10th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^

Exactly this.  The analysis was done via Monte Carlo simulation and to your point, clicking all those scenarios reduces the data set to a relatively small number of scenarios and then toggling back and forth between TCU winning or losing just cuts those scenarios into two even smaller sets.

It's like flipping a coin ten times and saying, well I got heads four of the first five and only two of the second five, what gives?  Arbitrarily splitting scenarios post hoc, doesn't change the underlying probabilities. Even at large samples you'll see some variation, but not significant. 

Here, the difference between 28% and 33% is not significant. 

If the analysis was done using Bayesian first principles, then the Michigan conference win percent wouldn't change (as expected) because you'd assume it's independent of the TCU outcome which it mostly is.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

cappy412

November 10th, 2022 at 6:57 AM ^

Why even include Texas here? In what world would they have a 1/3 shot at making the playoff if they win out? 538 has a lot of stuff with poor validity like this 

Joined: 07/27/2016

MGoPoints: 904

UMBSnMBA

November 10th, 2022 at 8:20 AM ^

Horrible to know that if we win out, Clemson has a 66% chance of making the playoffs.  Ugh.  I wouldn't mind playing them in the first round of the CFP, but you know that isn't happening.

Joined: 05/12/2013

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