The dust has settled - predict the top four

Submitted by ChopBlock on

Essentially, we have 4 teams vying for three playoff spots. Alabama will be the #1 seed of course, but for spots 2-4, the following teams are in the race (astersik = conference champion). Sorry Oklahoma, better luck next year.

Ohio State 11-1

Clemson 12-1*

Washington 12-1*

Penn State 11-2*

Do Clemson and/or Washington jump Ohio State? Does conference champion Penn State squeak into the #4 spot? Post your predicted top 4!

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ska4punkkid

December 4th, 2016 at 12:28 AM ^

If we don't get in I hope OSU loses in the title game in spectacular and/or heartbreaking fashion. A lot of the talking heads on Sportscenter right now seem to think the committee will still be debating between Michigan and Washington

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AmayzNblue

December 4th, 2016 at 12:32 AM ^

What debate? They put Washington ahead of us last week just barely, but Washington destroyed CU and became a conference champ and has only lost 1 game contrasted with our 2 losses. There is no argument or debate within the committee. Clemson has a greater chance of being shoved out based on their crappy game



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1VaBlue1

December 4th, 2016 at 12:30 AM ^

Bama, Washington, OSU, Clemson.  No reason for that to change - they took care of business.  PSU might jump Michigan.  They won an exciting game that TV loved.  The defenses sucked, but TV loves offense, not football.

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Mannix

December 4th, 2016 at 12:32 AM ^

I think Ped St blowing out Iowa, and going 9/9 is going to give them a shot. Committee said 4-7 was small difference. Maybe they can compete? I would be sick but it isn't a stretch to think it may happen. If it dumps OSU or Clemson, that'd be something.



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Picktown GoBlue

December 4th, 2016 at 12:32 AM ^

It should be

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Washington
  4. Michigan

Proof- total scores for the B1G teams in the head to head round robin

  • Michigan 90-47 vs. the other 3
  • OSU 81-74 vs. the other 3
  • Wisconsin 61-82 vs. the other 3
  • PSU 72-101 vs. the other 3

or... won-loss records:

  • Michigan 2-1
  • OSU 2-1
  • PSU 2-1
  • Wisconsin 0-3

3 way tie at the top, record for each of those three against the other two is 1-1, and I'll arbitrarily pick Michigan and pretend Iowa didn't happen.

or.... treating overtime as ties/half a win in the round robin:

  • Michigan 2-0-1 (2.5 wins)
  • PSU 2-1-0 (2 wins)
  • OSU 0-1-2 (1 win)
  • Wisconsin 0-2-1 (.5 wins)

Serious prediction:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. OSU
  4. Washington
  5. Michigan
  6. Oklahoma

Alabama curb stomps Washington.  OSU squeaks out win over Clemson.  Alabama shuts out OSU on the national stage.

 

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I dumped the Dope

December 4th, 2016 at 12:42 AM ^

has not played super well.

If there is any chance Kirby is looking to Cut Ho's as his name implies, we will edge out Clem's son.

They got lucky on  a walkoff win FG vs NC State by pure irish luck, this at home.

They couldn't stop a shootout with Pitt, this at home.

They were a first down away from going to overtime with #23 tonight.

They are 4-1 vs cfp #11-25 teams.  UM is 3-1 vs cfp #1-10 teams (per blueKoj diary!)

M's losses were both road by a total of 4 points.

Bottom line is Clemson is Fraud #2 or Fraud #3 or Fraud #4.  They belong at #5 for their accomplishments.

It seems the spin of 2016 won't allow this to happen but I'm all for it.

The teams which have shown me Total Domination in various forms this season are: Bama, OSU, Washington and Michigan.  Clemson dominated powerhouses of Syracuse and South Carolina.   Clemson = squeaker wins.

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Maynard

December 4th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^

Going to be chalk.

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Clemson

4. Washington

Then who the hell knows whether it will be Penn State at 5 or Michigan. They will be 5/6 with Oklahoma coming in at 7.

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Durham Blue

December 4th, 2016 at 12:37 AM ^

1. Alabama
2. OSU
3. Washington
4. Michigan

PSU has no shot. Sorry, peds. You don't get curb stomped by 39 and hope to have a shot. And Clemson has no business being there. Any D with a pulse would crush them. They have no D. Four best teams are above. Truth.

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SeattleWolverine

December 4th, 2016 at 12:39 AM ^

How it should be:

1.Alabama

2.Michigan

3.OSU

4.Washington

5.Clemson

 

 

What the committee will say:

1.Alabama

2.Clemson

3.Washington

4.OSU

5.PSU

6.Michigan

 

OSU at 4 may well not happen but I'm throwing it out there. Committee penalizes them for not winning a conference and getting in over B1G champ by sticking them with Alabama in the first game. Setting up 2014 rematch and then 2015 rematch with Clemson in the championship. PSU ahead of us is dumb, but the world has short attention spans and recency bias. 

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SeattleWolverine

December 4th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^

Sure I can. Fancystats concurs. Just because one team beat another in one game doesn't necessarily mean they are better overall. Do you think Iowa is better than us? Pitt better than Clemson? PSU better than OSU? Sometimes the inferior team wins the game. Just my opinion, but subjectively I think we are 2nd best. Home field is worth 3.5 points anyway and we tied in regulation. I mean, whatever, doesn't matter, we're not getting in. I do think the margin between M, OSU, UW and Clemson is fairly small, but obviously only one of those teams has 2 losses. 

 

Clemson doesn't deserve much. They've skated by with close wins over meh teams for much of the year. That Louisville win isn't looking as good anymore after they lost to Houston by 26 and Kentucky. They're a good team but when you watch them play, they are not one of the 4 most impressive teams. In my opinion. 

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M-Dog

December 4th, 2016 at 12:49 AM ^

Why is Ohio State getting such a free pass?

They are one bad ref call (Michigan) and one bad play call (Michigan State) from being 0 for 3 against the power teams of the Big Ten East - Michigan / Michigan State / Penn State.  

Zero for three.

They are NOT clearly better than Michigan or Penn State, as evidenced on the field.  This is not a theoretical argument.

 

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M-Dog

December 4th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^

The point is how close - even arbitrary and capricious - those wins were.

If you look at the CFP committee's tie-breakers that kick in when teams are roughly equal, Ohio State should get bumped by Penn State.

But dipshits like Joey Galloway keep saying that Ohio State "is clearly above" Michigan / Penn State and the tie-breakers don't apply.

How exactly are they "clearly above"?  The results directly on the field show emperically that they are NOT "clearly above".

They are getting a free pass based on perception from some other season.

 

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DHerrick

December 4th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^

I rated our chances as pretty slim even if Clemson or Washington lost.  I was surprised to hear debate on Sports Center about Michigan after both won.  It sucks, but we lost to Iowa.  After the loss, I thought "no big deal; same as before, we beat Ohio State and we are in."  After we lost to Ohio State, I realized "ooooooh, this is why losing to Iowa mattered."  We lost.  It mattered.  Had we won, Ohio State would have beat Wisconsin (or not), and we would be in Ohio State's shoes -- the non-Big10 champion going to the dance.  Oh well.  Still a great year.  In a year or two, we will not have these debates.  We will be more dominant than Alabama.

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ColoradoBlue

December 4th, 2016 at 12:53 AM ^

One thing is for sure:  I would NOT want to be on that committee.  They have a thankless job.  They should probably draw names from a hat for #2-4.  That seems as good a process as any at this point.

 

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Blau

December 4th, 2016 at 1:01 AM ^

Not sure how the top 4 plays out but I'm sure we'll be #5.

That way the CFP committee and CFB media can say things like we "had a great season" and we're "just as good as #2, #3 or #4" as if it's some type of consolation prize. Which is true but sucks being on the outside looking in.

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M-Dog

December 4th, 2016 at 9:35 AM ^

This^  They will make a lot of noise and fuss for window dressing, but they will puss out and do what you listed.

Look at who is on the committee . . . they are all real and de facto career politicians.  They will take the easy path, but make it look like it was hard work to get there.

 

 

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Blue Durham

December 4th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^

were exactly what the committee wanted, and made for the easiest decisions. No change in the top 4, where 4 conferences are represented, 3 as conference champions. The only undefeated team #1 and with the only 1 loss teams in the other 3 spots. The last thing they ever want is have to select from all of the 2-loss teams and end up having to select 2 teams from the same conference. They were saved that with both Clemson and Washington winning.

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