Denard's stat line for ND predictions
In 2010 Denard threw for 244 yards and 1 TD and rushed for 258 and 2 TDs.
In 2011 he threw for 338 yards and 4 TDs and rushed for 108 and 1 TD.
Like Michael Jordan playing the Knicks, something about Notre Dame brings out the best in Shoelace. He clearly is the Irish's Kryptonite.
He now is in his 3rd year of starting and 2nd year in Borges' offense. However, ND's defense appears to be better this year than in the past two years as well. So, how will he do?
I think he's improved as a passer to the point that he will surpass 2011's throwing totals, racking up 350 in the air and 5 TDs passing (and he's going to have a far better completion percentage than last year's game), and I think he's going to bust at least one long run allowing him to break 125 on the ground and pick up another rushing TD.
Am I crazy? Over exuberant? Or is this going to be Denard's best game yet in a career of wow moments and it will put him back into the Heisman conversation?
Oh and it was also mentioned on the board it's his birthday Saturday. Not sure if that will have an effect on his performance or not, but maybe it'll help the team to perform so they can give him a birthday win.
EDIT: I forgot to mention this is my first forum topic that I've started so also I'd appreciate any suggestions for improving these in the future or any feedback to improve my writing as well, thanks!
September 18th, 2012 at 10:11 PM ^
5 YPA? We won't win with 5 YPA.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:27 PM ^
Can he avoid the turnovers?
We have to go back to the Minnesota game last year for his last game without one.
September 19th, 2012 at 7:27 AM ^
It's become almost expected for him to make 2 in a game. Please make it stop mommy.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:27 PM ^
September 18th, 2012 at 9:28 PM ^
three touchdowns, 2 by passing, 1 by running and a final 2 point conversion with a ND player ending up with Denard's shoe in hand after he dives into the endzone to win the game with no time left on the clock. Final score: UofM 22 and Notre Dame 21
September 19th, 2012 at 1:58 AM ^
to go for the win instead of OT...me likes
September 18th, 2012 at 9:28 PM ^
20-25 passing for 275 yards, 4 TD 2 INT
12 carries for 80 yards rushing, 1 TD
80,795 broken hearts.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:51 PM ^
Even the UM fans?
September 18th, 2012 at 10:15 PM ^
Only in the same way as Pat Stansik though
September 19th, 2012 at 5:06 AM ^
Yea of course they are broken hearted! It's the last time they get to see Denard own ND
September 18th, 2012 at 9:29 PM ^
as it would be a school record. Shocking to me that of all the great pocket passers we've had, no one has thrown for more than 4 in one game. For Denard to do it would be prettttty sweeeet.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:45 PM ^
I had no idea we'd never had a QB throw for 5 in a single game before. I'd love to see Denard get that.
I think I went with 5 because it'd be an improvement over the past year's game, but maybe I was being too overconfident.
September 19th, 2012 at 12:05 AM ^
Denard has been close so many times. I actually thought he might get it during the Rich Rod era because so many teams needed to cheat against the run. Alas, record still stands at 4!
September 20th, 2012 at 1:19 PM ^
We've had a number of great pocket passers, but also some dominating defenses and conservative offensive coordinators. Historically, we just haven't played that many games where the QB would still need to throw after throwing 4 TD.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:30 PM ^
We have stolen the past three games from ND. I like our team, but ND scares me. As much as we all feel Sparty is/was overrated, ND looked really good.
I'll go with:
Passing: 240 yds 2 TD, 3 INT
Rushing 106 yds 1 TD
I do think Michigan wins by a slim margin. Fitz has a big game and makes up the difference.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:34 PM ^
It's a bit of a long shot, but if you include 2009 where he picked up a few yards, Denard needs something like 600 total yards to have put up a MILE against Notre Dame. So that's how I'm rooting.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:37 PM ^
Can anybody remember the last away game we played at night that we won? In my mind right now I see Alabama scoring their elentymillionith touchdown, McGloin getting his first start at PSU and completing like 35 passes in a row or Iowa the year before where Tate became "Tate" and Denard threw his first crucial pick of his career.
When was the last road night game we won anyways?
September 18th, 2012 at 9:42 PM ^
I think Northwestern last season was a night game. I watched it on TV but it looked hella dark there.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:51 PM ^
NW game started at 6 Central time, so it was a night game. We often play NW under the lights, which I enjoy because it makes hitting the bars in Chicago after the game that much easier as it's just a quick El train ride downtown
September 18th, 2012 at 9:45 PM ^
@ Northwestern last year
September 18th, 2012 at 9:50 PM ^
Thanks guys. What was the one before that?
September 18th, 2012 at 9:56 PM ^
At U of I in 2007.
RR didn't have nighttime success, so you have to go back to Carr.
September 18th, 2012 at 10:00 PM ^
2007 Illinois
2006 Penn State
2006 Minnesota
2005 Northwestern
2003 Minnesota
2002 Minnesota
1999 Syracuse
1998 Hawaii
1998 Northwestern
1996 Minnesota
1995 Boston College
1991 Minnesota
1990 Notre Dame
September 18th, 2012 at 10:08 PM ^
Yeah but OTHER than those when have we won one?
Seriously dude....anybody can come up with a random 13 correct answers. I think my point was made - no reason to muck it up with facts and stuff.
September 18th, 2012 at 10:30 PM ^
September 18th, 2012 at 10:35 PM ^
Northwestern last year
September 18th, 2012 at 9:38 PM ^
180 yards rushing 2 TDs
And a Michigan victory. I think this game will be a lot like the 2006 game where we stomped a overrated ND team.
42-17. The other TDs come on Special teams and Defense.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:40 PM ^
101% of the offense, whatever that might be.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:41 PM ^
isnt cutting the grass.. so I think it's going to really slow him down to only 225 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:47 PM ^
Isn't not cutting the grass slowing down their defense too?? Never understood this line of thinking.
September 19th, 2012 at 2:22 PM ^
It slows it down for everyone, which levels the field to some degree, and causes factors other than speed to be decisive. At least that's the theory.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:47 PM ^
Something to the effect of
70% passing, 3 TDs
120 yards, 2 TDs
September 18th, 2012 at 9:50 PM ^
123 yds passing for 4 TDs
567 yds rushing for 8 TDs
September 18th, 2012 at 9:53 PM ^
Funny, people predicting more INT's than TD's against a team with a questionable secondary. Granted, Denard isn't Tom Brady, but he's not that bad throwing the ball.
September 18th, 2012 at 9:58 PM ^
Their DB's were the weak link on defense 2 years ago, they were the weak link last year, (as if anybody could forget how bad they played,) and this year they've been an even weaker link. Now, both starters FS Jamoris Slaughter and CB Lo Wood are out injured. Denards gonna be throwing against a backup Corner, backup Safety, a true freshman Corner, and the SS who's a converted linebacker and not strong in pass coverage, so he spends most of his time in the box. If you thought last years deep bombs were excessive, wait until we unleash the Double Devin on their 2rd string.
Navy passed for almost 200 on their starters, as did Purdue, and even Sparty managed 187 yards in the air. Now that 2 of them are out injured for the season they're screwed. They're gonna get torched on Saturday.
Zeke Motta is their strongest player in the secondary, a senior and multi year starter at SS who was a top 100 prospect coming out of high school, but his impact has been less than expected, and doesn't concern me much even in run support. Both Motta and Jordan Kovacs have played behind linebackers who led their teams in tackles, but Mottas numbers are less than a 3rd what Kovacs has put up with only 1 more game played.
38 games played to Kovacs 39, 102 total tackles to 283, 53 solo tackles to 164, 2 career TFLs to Kovacs 22, .5 sacks to Kovacs 5, 1 Forced Fumble to Kovacs 5, and 2 INTs to Kovacs 4.
Basically this game should make Denard look very, very good.
September 18th, 2012 at 10:19 PM ^
Given that Kelly is well aware of the weakness of his secondary, and that Michigan is likely going to come out trying to exploit that weakness in the ND secondary, I think that ND is going to take a page out MSU's anti-Denard defense, rather than Bama's. I think they're going to send everything that they have at Denard, play tight coverage, and hope that they can either get to him, and/or force INT's. Further, I think they're going to use Te'o as a "spy" on Denard, while the other LB's pin their ears back.
I think ND is playing with fire, but they don't have much choice. They're confident -- maybe over confident -- that their DL is going to decimate our OL. They might, in run blocking, but even against Bama's stout DL, Michigan's OL showed that it can give Denard the time to pass. Since the Bama game, we've had the further development of Gardner, and the emergence of Funchess, and perhaps to some extent Norfleet. I'd like to see Borges come out in "max protect" with lots of short quick hitters on the edge, where Michigan's play makers will have a chance to get downfield as the ND LB's will be blitzing.
I know Borges wants to "establish the run," as all OC's do, but I really believe that this game, at least offensively, is going to come down to the effecitveness of Denard's arm, and his chemistry with the WR's, TE's, and RB's. When they've been sufficiently gashed by the pass, ND will try to sit back a bit, and that is when Borges needs to hit them with delays, draws, and the some misdirection.
Stats wise, I think Denard has his best game to date: 312 passing for 3 TD's, and 181 rushing for 2 TD's (one run of 65, and one of 15). Most of his passing comes in the first half, and most of his running comes in the second with the long run being a scramble, not a designed run.
Borges absolutely MUST keep the ND defense off balance by passing to open up the run.
September 18th, 2012 at 10:34 PM ^
I do too. One of the things ND did against Sparty was load the box because Sparty sent their TE's out for short passes in the middle. ND didnt have to adjust at all. Te'o just stood his ground and played both the run, and the pass. Funchess and our other TE's have been getting much deeper than 10 yards, though, and our intermediate passing game has been on the edge in man coverage with fast guys like Dileo, Gallon, and Smith. Sparty played to NDs strengths in a way, Borges is going to create mismatches.
September 19th, 2012 at 10:42 AM ^
Im just glad FLoyd is no longer there to give ND every third down conversion the needed last year. WIthout him Michigan would have won that game without the last second heroics.
September 18th, 2012 at 10:36 PM ^
Nice post. I like the game theory you're presenting. Who knows if you'll be right in what you'd like to see, though I'm not saying it's not plausible because it certainly is, but it's hard to predict stuff like this it seems (for me anyway; I always seem to think I know the keys to a certain game only to see them perform the opposite). I digress, but it's fun to break the game down like that. Stats are fun to predict and all, but getting down to the nitty gritty of football to me is what's really neat. I do agree about the pass and protection. Get Denard the assured time to throw and get his arm going on some short stuff (hell, even long if it's there).
I'll make no statistical predictions, those seem to never work out.
September 18th, 2012 at 11:20 PM ^
Thanks,
I don't think Denard will have time to stretch the field, at least not early on. I think once the initial phase of the "counter punch" takes effect, then Borges will be able to send the WR's deep off of play action, when the running game starts to take effect -- like that sick inside fake move that Gallon made that got him the long reception near the end of the half versus Bama. But, as I said, I really don't think he's going to have the time to do that early -- the only reason that he did againt Bama was because they were content to just sit back and contain Denard, not flush him. But, Bama's secondary is elite, where as ND's is young and inexperienced.
I think Denard and Borges have to be very patient, use the short pass as a substitute for the run early on, and make ND pay for being so aggressive up front. Get Fitz/Smith/Norfleet and the WR's the ball away from the pile, in space, and see if they can break free. I'd also really like to see the return of the "QB Oh No!" or as I call it, the "Jab Step" passes. We know that Te'o and his crew are going to be foaming at the mouth to get after Denard running, use that against them.
I love offensive strategy, and I think that there is nothing more exciting in football than having a true dual threat QB with which to scheme. Up until now, Denard was what I'd called a "threat-and-a-half QB" -- he obviously is an elite runner, but his passing wasn't enough to make you really respect it. I think all that has changed. I think Borges knows that Denard is passes as well as anyone in the nation, but also has the ability to scramble for TD's from anywhere.
Please, please, please Denard, please tuck-and-run at least 5 times against ND -- if you do, I am almost certain that aleast one will go for a TD, two will go for big gains, and the other other two will be for at least first downs. The running is there, the passing seems to have arrived, and we saw a great pump-tuck-and-run vs. UMass. Show everyone that you've got them all now, and you be totally UNSTOPPABLE!
Go Blue, Beat the Irish!
September 19th, 2012 at 1:05 AM ^
Against State, in my mind, I thought a key to success against Sparty would be shutting down Bell, but ND really didn't do that. They didn't have to, either. Sparty hardly ran him at all. Bell has averaged around 4 ypc this year in all 3 games, and maintained nearly identical numbers against NDs "excellent" front 7 that he did against Centrals MAC front 7. He rushed for 77 yards on 19 carries against ND, and for 70 yards on 18 carries against Central. He put up over 200 yards against Boise, granted, but the only way they managed that was to run him 44 times in a game. Most of the blame for Sparty not running the ball well and sustaining drives I lay at the feet of their coordinator making Sparty incredibly 1 dimensional. They ran roughly 70 offensive plays, 50 of them relied on Maxwell, 19 of them relied on Bell. They used one running back an anemic 1/4 of the time on offense. Maxwell completing more than 50% of his passes would have helped, but he did account for almost 200 yards. They needed to make adjustments for their terrible protection for Maxwell, and part of that could have come from running the ball more than every 4th play.
Of course I dont think MIchigan will do that at all. We seem to be very much a run first team, against Bama, and UMass we rushed twice as many times as we passed, so I expect our balance against ND to be nearer 50/50 with their much depleted secondary, and their stout front.
September 19th, 2012 at 2:27 AM ^
It appeared to me that ND was able to get pressure on Maxwell with 4, and sometimes even 3 rushers. Seems that people over at RCMB are furious with Roushar, the MSU OC, and are saying that he was "bailed out" several times over the years by Cousins, and other talented players. From what I read, even Dantonio said in his presser that he "should have run the ball more in the second half..." and "..."I think I got impatient in the second half, a little bit..."
Sounds to me that Sparty wanted to run the ball, but they got behind quickly, and instead of doing what they do best, and giving the ball to their best player, they decided to do what they don't do best, i.e., passing. They had a lot of drops, and the completed passes seemed to be short and didn't threaten the ND defense deep, or even intermediately. From what I've read at RCMB, they're putting the loss on the OL, the WR's, and the fact that the OC went away from the run too soon.
I am less convinced now that Michigan is going to have a hard time running against ND's front. I know they're good, but like all thing Notre Dame, its sounds like they're being a bit over hyped.
September 18th, 2012 at 11:51 PM ^
Sten, good post but I disagree with you on a couple of things.
First, I don't think ND is going to try and play press coverage on UM's receivers. Because of their issues in their secondary, I think ND is going to play soft coverage and bleed yards, trying to minimize the big plays and hope we make mistakes. I also don't think ND will mess around with trying to "spy" Denard, whether with Te'o or any other player. I think they'll just try to take away Toussaint , keep Denard in the pocket, and hope he can't sustain drives with his arm.
I also expect ND to be very aggressive on offense because I think they realize they will need to score a lot more points to win this game than they needed against Purdue or MSU.
September 19th, 2012 at 12:18 AM ^
EGD,
You could be correct on the soft coverage, but when you've blitzing, don't you usually want to jam the WR's to try to stop the QB from the quick dump in the face of the blitz? If they're aggressive in front, and play soft on the edge, that seems like recipe for continual gains, where as if they play press, they're going to be able to jump those short passes. I suppose a lot depeneds upon how well the offense is picking up the blitz, if they are and you're playing press, you're bound to get burned deep if you're facing a QB that can get the ball to his WR's/TE's.
I just happen to think that ND won't respect Michigan's OL nor Denard's arm. Those Domers are an arrogant lot, and they think that since they handled MSU -- whom they think is a better team than Michigan -- they can easily handle Denard and Michigan. Problem is, Denard is a far better passer than Maxwell, and Michigan's WR's are far better than MSU's. Further, ND only had to worry about Bell running, not Bell AND Maxwell.
Bottom line, I just want Borges to do everything he can do try to exploit ND's weakness in the secondary.
September 19th, 2012 at 11:06 AM ^
Yes, I think it is common for defenses to combine a blitz with bump & run coverage. But I don't think ND has the personnel to do that and they know it. I'm also not sure they will really try and blitz Denard, as they won't want to risk opening up lanes he can scramble through. I think they might take a shot here or there, but otherwise the only "blitzes" we'll see are zone blitzes with zone coverage behind them. If Denard hits his hot read for 8 yards, I think they'll live with that--it's better than giving up a 40-yard bomb, plus maybe they figure Denard won't be able to do it consistently, and maybe he'll launch one off his back foot eventually.
I realize ND's fans probably think the Irish could take down the 49ers these days after what they did to State, but I don't think that mindset carries over to the team itself. I think their coaches know quite well what Denard can do to them, and I think they realize MSU was completely undermanned on offense--with no receivers, a terrible line, and an inexperienced QB. If ND puts together a game plan that calls on their players to do things beyond their current capabilities, terrific. But I don't think that will happen.
By the same token, I do expect ND to look a lot more dangerous on offense than they did against MSU. In that game, I don't think ND thought State could really hurt them, so once they got the lead they just made sure they didn't give MSU any short fields. In this game, I think they will open it up more and try to consistently score points (I think they will, but I also think this will enable UM to get some turnovers that can hopefully swing the game).
September 19th, 2012 at 5:29 AM ^
You might be right but there is one problem here. Notre Dame does not have MSU's secondary to be able to play tight coverage. Notre Dame will try and pressure with alot of blitzes but, Michigan will counter with alot of quick slants and laser screens or whatever Borges calls bubble screens.
Te'o won't be able to cover Devin funches and if they try that it will end badly. He could run with Dion sims who is a huge TE 6'5 or 6'6 listed at like 280 pounds. Funches is alot faster and alot smoother of a runner. Michigan will come out passing early with quick slants and screens. Funches will make the first big catch and change how ND plays their defense.
I can't see ND winning this game. They have been favored the last 3 years, sometimes looking like a lot better of a team only to come up short. Until they show they can stop Denard for 4 quarters , I'm putting my money on Michigan in another close game. It won't be as close as the last 3 tho. After 3 quarters of near stroke level frustration and a near heart attack inducing 4th quarter , we as the fans thank you.
Michigan 38 ND 28
Denard throws for 298 2td 1 int
Runs for 156 2 TDs
Touisant comes out in this game on a mission breaking the 100 yard mark for the first time this year
September 19th, 2012 at 9:07 AM ^
September 19th, 2012 at 10:36 AM ^
What about Constantly trying to pound Vincent up the gut against Alabama makes you think he doesn't
September 18th, 2012 at 9:56 PM ^
September 18th, 2012 at 9:56 PM ^
320 passing
180 rushing yards
4 touchdowns
0 interceptions
Michigan will beat Norte Dame 31 28. Shoelace will not be denied his birthday celebration in South Bend this Saturday night.