B1G offensive holding statistics in the Harbaugh Era (Updated Per Play)
So, we've read a lot about the lack of holding calls drawn by our defense in game threads and officiating snowflake threads. I figured it was time to get some hard numbers.
I downloaded the 2015, 2016, and 2017 play by play data from the ESPN API. I then calculated all cases of accepted offensive holding calls in B1G conference play. The following table shows how many holding calls each B1G defense drew.
| Team |
Offensive Holding Calls Drawn 2015-2017 B1G Conference Play |
|---|---|
|
Indiana
|
25
|
| Maryland | 23 |
| Minnesota | 23 |
| Purdue | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 21 |
| Iowa | 20 |
| Michigan State | 20 |
| OSU | 20 |
| Illinois | 19 |
| Penn State | 19 |
| Rutgers | 16 |
| Nebraska | 15 |
| Northwestern | 15 |
| Michigan | 10 |
Anticipating the question; two of the 10 drawn by Michigan were in garbage time.
Updated: Offensive Holdings Drawn Per 100 B1G Conference Plays (as requested)
| Team |
Accepted Holds Per 100 Plays Defended |
Total holds Per 100 Plays Defended |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| Minnesota | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| Wisconsin | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| Maryland | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Michigan State | 1.12 | 1.23 |
| Purdue | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| OSU | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| Iowa | .99 | 1.09 |
| Illinois | .94 | 1.14 |
| Penn State | .93 | 1.17 |
| Nebraska | .83 | .94 |
| Rutgers | .81 | .87 |
| Northwestern | .76 | .97 |
| Michigan | .58 | .76 |
November 29th, 2017 at 5:14 PM ^
is more significant than the number accepted. The overall success of our defense gives more reasons we would decline penalties than other teams. In particular our defensive success rate on 3rd down and the fact that opponents were rarely in FG range.
I don't know that these things would completely explain the disparity, but if Harbaugh were to have a staffer look into this, they'd go into a lot more detail. As far as the league goes, I'd hope their regular reviews would show whether they were due to lopsided calls by a few officials. That's something coaches would notice.
November 29th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
I'm really hoping Urban and Meyer can put some pressure on the B10 to rectify the lack of offensive holding across the league. I don't know why we appear to be particularly victimized, but either way, it's an issue across the league and currently punishes the two biggest in names in conference more than anyone else given our DLs.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^
I think they can get the job done.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
Damn it. Now you locked me in.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^
Why were the stats between the two posts different?
November 29th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
The initial table posted was the one I generated before filtering on only accepted holding calls. If you are a conspiracy theorist, you could claim they intentionally throw the flag only when it wouldn't matter.
Both tables painted a similar story, though.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^
1 - do you have the data for holding calls against?
2 - 15 calls (the difference between the best and worst) equates to one call every other game - in general, the amount of calls seems low - one would think there would be a few calls per game
3 - is there any correlation between calls and officiating crew?
November 29th, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
1) I did calculate the data on holding calls against. Michigan was right in the center of the pack.
2) No strong disagreement here.
3) ESPN's data in API didn't include the crew info. A shame!
November 30th, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^
Hi, umich1. I don't know if you're going to see this, but I have the crew info for all Big Ten conference games going back to about 2004 or so. I assume that what you are looking for is 2015-2017 crews for conference games only, correct? If that's the case, or if you would like more than that, just let me know. I won't be able to get it to you until Friday afternoon / evening, though--I'm out of town today.
My e-mail address is a comcast dot net address. E-mail "ahspam" at that domain (without the quotes, obvs.) and I will send you the crew info as an excel spreadsheet or however else you would prefer.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
The Michigan defense has to be near the bottom of fewest plays defended based on how quickly it tends to get off the field, and also the relatively low number of plays in a Michigan game, compared to an up-tempo team like Indiana. Per play will just have everything well below one, but per 100 should be easy enough to view.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
Does this include holding calls that were declined as well? I seem to remember a couple that were picked up because one guy was held but another still made a play.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
What do the stats look like pre-Harbaugh?
November 29th, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
The average number of calls drawn is 19.1 with a standard deviation of 4.0. The average minus 3 sigma is 7.2. We are between 2 and 3 sigma below the average. That's not good, but it's not proof of a conspiracy either. I usually take extreme outliers to be more than 3 standard deviations from the mean. I'm mixing some terms, here, but my point is we are just within range of what is statistically plausible. Just barely.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^
3 years isn’t enough. I would say 5 minimum.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^
We're way over to the left in this graph. We're still a part of the bell curve, but just barely. Damn B1G refs even know how to use statistics to cover up their nefarious ways.
/s, sort of. Aw, hell no. Fit me for a tinfoil hat this instant!!! There's some bogus shit going down.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
Unless you start with the assumption that the Michigan datapoint is not from the same distribution. In which case the average is 19.8, std dev 3.1, so average minus 3 sigma is 10.5.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^
I'm not a professional statistician. I come across stats as part of my job, but whenever a real problem occurs, we have folks who are paid (handsomely, I presume) to get the numbers right.
November 29th, 2017 at 7:03 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 10:35 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
and the impact on each game. They are marking the players on each play anyway, how much more time would it take to note calls / non-calls?
They would create a whole new revenue line for themselves...
November 29th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
Although it may not change a ton of stuff at first, it would create some form of accountability. I understand that we are never supposed to complain about officiating, but for the life of me I can't imagine another profession where mistakes are taken so lightly. I would bet that everyone on this board has a job where if they aren't performing at a 99% level or better, they would get canned. Refs don't ever seem to hit on more than 85%.
November 29th, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^
If they are taught to occupy and be responsible for a certain space they are less likely to be held. ONTO hand, if taught to free wheel it to the RB or QB, the DL actions are not anticipated or predictable thus requiring an OL to take whatever action to excecute the play.
That said, many DL of Michigan are in the NFL regadless if they are held or not.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
Even if you adjust for defensive plays, it's clear that Michigan is not drawing anything close to the number of holding penalties it deserves. As a Communist, I know all about what is a real conspiracy and what is merely statistical noise. And this is a conspiracy, comrades.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:19 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
As unpopular as this may be, Harbaugh's sideline antics probably have hurt Michigan in the sense that any 50-50 calls are not going to go our way. Refs are human and they don't like to be embarrassed. Harbaugh's had a handful of memorable (and meme-able) sideline tantrums, as well as his rant after OSU 2016. I doubt there is any B1G conspiracy; more likely we've lost any benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the refs.
Most fans think the refs are against their team, I'm sure OSU could come up with a number of plays to prove the refs favored Michigan (there were a few plays that could've been defensive holding on our DBs). However, the lack of offensive holding calls against our opponent is alarming. I count 2 holding calls against in our last 17 regular season games. I'd guess most games see at least 2-3 offensive holding calls per game, we see 2 per season. It's ridiculous.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
...our opponents know it and will continue to capitalize on it, too. "Hold Michigan like crazy. It won't get called," must the mantra across the league.
November 30th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^
So being yelled at by Harbaugh causes more embarrasment than looking incompetent at your profession by failing to see/call obvious penalties?
Serious question, do these refs have aspirations of working in the NFL one day and if so what does this level of incompetence look like to their prospective employer?
November 29th, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
What about other coaches' sideline antics. Lots of examples out there.
The conference does not have it out for Harbaugh specifically, although he has shaken things up since returning home to Ann Arbor. No, it goes deeper than that, back to the Bo years.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^
This is a highly on-brand thread yall
November 29th, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
It's a fact. The stupid NFL teams didn't figure it out though and drafter Michigan's Dline players much higher
November 29th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^
It's a fact. The stupid NFL teams didn't figure it out though and drafted Michigan's Dline players much higher
November 29th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:31 PM ^
but getting just half of the holding calls that the best teams in the conference have gotten over a three-year period seems extremely improbable, especially considering the quality of our defenses over that period.
November 29th, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:35 PM ^
Could we see accepted and declined holding calls together and see them both normalized to the number of plays on the field for each defense?
November 29th, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^
As Captain Planet used to say, "the power is YOURS."
November 29th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^
I honestly thought that it would look quite a bit different when you looked at total holds on a per play basis, but: nope! Good stuff!
November 29th, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^
Michigan games have way less plays than a game between indiana and osu who may both use a hurry up offense.
Our offense is designed for clock management, our defense is the best in the country at forcing three and outs. Combine those two facts and I bet our defense faces significantly less plays per average than many of those teams. That is a good thing but could skew this analysis.
Likely Michigan has also gotten unlucky/screwed but the type of pass rusher can also impact this. A pure speed edge rusher is more likely to get a holding call against than a player like Wormley or Chalton or Gary who pushes linemen into QB's by collapsing the pocket rather than coming around the edge with speed. Which I think is also why I'd bet we have less strip sack fumbles than many teams with similar sack numbers.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 5:28 PM ^
Wisconsin, MSU, and Iowa which all similar style offenses that we do and at a similar pace, all have drawn twice as many holding calls as our D has. It kind of defeats your argument. The D faced 721 plays, Wisky 708, Iowa 844, and MSU 723.
November 29th, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^
Using ESPN as a source, I looked at three sets of games from 2016: UM vs MSU and OSU vs MSU; UM vs PSU and OSU vs PSU; UM vs IU and OSU vs IU
UM vs PSU: Our defense faced 55 offensive plays by PSU
OSU vs PSU: OSU's defense faced 60 offensive plays by PSU
UM vs IU: Our defense faced 66 offensive plays by IU
OSU vs IU: OSU's defense faced 68 offensive plays by IU
UM vs MSU: Our defense faced 70 offensive plays by MSU
OSU vs MSU: OSU's defense faced 56 offensive plays by MSU
I recognize that this is a small data sample in relation to the three years of data the OP looked at, but nonetheless it doesn't support the notion that UM is facing significantly fewer offensive plays than our major rival.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
This is absurd. Brown's offense is easily the most aggressive in the conference and should be near the top, but no of course not.
It'd be badass if we threatened to leave the conference over this. It's getting old fast.
Perhaps it's because most BIG refs are blue collar guys harboring ill will toward academically elite programs, thus why we and NW are at the bottom.