2018 class size? thoughts?
Currently, we are at 87 - this includes Drake Johnson and an OL that apparently is leaving but has not been named - for arguments sake, let's assume it is Kugler
This puts us at 85
O'Korn, Isaac, Poggi, K Hill, Hurst, Cole and McCray are all out of eligibility
This puts us at 78
seniors possibly not getting a 5th year
Ways, JBB, Furbush, Wangler and Watson
This puts us at 73
up in the air for a 5th year = Drake Harris, Marshall - assume one stays - puts us at 72
likely gets a 5th year if they want to stay = Speight, Bunting, Mone, Winovich
so class size would be 16 (we seem to go to 88 then get attrition to 85)
16 seem right to people?
best guess breakdown
1 - QB
2 - RB
3 - WR
4 - TE
5 - TE
6 - OL
7 - OL
8 - OL
9 - OL
10 - DE
11 - DT
12 - LB
13 - LB
14 - DB
15 - DB
16 - DT/DB/RB
thoguhts?
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Think you have to expect more attrition than that, transfers and such. 18-20 seems like a good guess. I would expect we would take at least one more TE, especially given the Asiasi news, and more DL.
crucial to have a stable of DL for depth and to see more guys at one of the higher leverage positions in the game. Losing Asiasi was a killer but I'd be surprised/disappointed if we took more TEs in this class than DEs or DTs which are more important positions.
We took a ton of DL the past two years. OL especially OT is much more crucial. Taking one or two elite TEs such as Brevin Jordan helps to restock that position too.
I have no deep knowledge, but this all seams right to me...
FauxMo
I won't be surprised to see 22 - 23 signees for the 2018 class.
17. TB
18. HD
19. AD
20. BS
21. MS
22. IQ
23. HQ
24. GQ
Jim seems to go over expected # for various reasons. I expect 20-22 but I am just guessing.
I have an idea
They haven't made a decision on him yet. Even if he gets a 6th year, it's not for sure he will stay at Michigan since there seems to be a backlog at the position.
by a younger player, no reason to come back
yes - he can help
for 2018?
not as important
2018 OL
LT - Stueber
LG - Bredeson
C - Ruiz
RG - Onwenu
RT - Filiaga
with Hall, Honigford, Newsome, Ulizio, Runyan, Spanellis plus 2018 recruits all able to fill in
if JBB isn't starting, he would probably be best served to grad-transfer for both himself and the team
Two third year players and 3 second year players. It still looks pretty damn good.
There are 2 decisions to be made. One by the player and one by the coaches. While the coaches might want him back he could decde to go elsewhere as a grad transfer for a better opportunity to get playing time. Counting on a guy ahead of you getting injured or having personal problems so you can see the field isn't good planning.
I have liked what have seen so far from Furbush. Given our LB depth, I expect him to play a lot this year (inside and outside) and be back for a 5th year in 2018.
I'd love for that to happen, but Furbush hasn't made any sort of impact so far. That may have been because he was playing the same position as Peppers and because he was injured for part of it. But the jury is out on him. Hope he makes a McCray type breakout this year.
I'd guess you'll see a little more playing time transfer attrition soon. Most of the guys we've lost under Harbaugh so far have been 5th years or behavior issues. But one consequence of having two large classes in a row is that you wind up with 63 guys who are freshman/sophomores in 2017. Normally, you can look to more juniors/seniors graduating to free up playing time in the future, but given that our roster is so young that may not be the case at some spots. Some of the guys who are 3rd string will be behind guys with similar eligibility and they'll probably look for easier opportunities to play elsewhere once the competition has settled. Not the worst thing in the world, the best players play and you'll see a more even distribution across classes.
Exactly. Say you were at QB and saw Speight would be back for 2 more years and Peters and McCaffrey were right behind you. (Behind you in eligibility, possibly ahead of you on the depth chart). The smart thing to do would be to graduate in 3 years and take all the expert coaching you had received and transfer to a place where you could get meaningful game experience. That's what you would do if you wanted to play in the NFL, anyway.
I'd put 4-12 as OL recruits unless Drake Harris bulks up and plays a little OT then I'd say more like 4-13 OL.
It will be 21 or 22. There will be a number of transfers between now and 2018. There always is for every team.
6 grad transfers plus 3 transfers of some kind
hard to really go beyond that
I agree with most of what you wrote. However, I doubt either Harris or Marshall will get an offer to come back unless he has a breakout season, in which case he may go pro anyway. I could name 2 guys who I think will transfer due to playing time issues, if our dear leader didn't frown on such things. Then there are the unexpected injuries/personal issues that you added in to your calculation. That puts my count at 3 above yours.
Of course, it's possible Harris and Marshall both have breakout years and both come back. Maybe the guys I see as likely transfers pull a Cone. Maybe no one has a serious injury or a personal issue that leads to a departure. As Yogi Berra noted, "Predicting is hard, especially about the future."
I would guess 20
But I have wondered if Kugler would want to go spend his final year of eligibility with his father at UTEP. Besides being able to play for his dad, Sean Kugler is a heck of an O-Line coach.
My thoughts are focused on 19. A good, prime number for a prime class.
I think your breakdown is pretty reasonable. If class size climbs near 20, you could probably just add another RB, OL, DL or DB. I could see us taking 3 tight ends if they are all very high ranked. We seem to have a fair chance with several.