Technical Flyover: Surveying the first half of 2021 Comment Count

Ian Boyd October 19th, 2021 at 4:39 PM

If you didn’t know, I’m relatively new to the Ann Arbor area.

I moved moved here in 2013. Before then, as a resident of Austin and an alumni of the University of Texas, I mostly knew Michigan as a pretty good team who helped Vince Young look like a hero in the 2005 Rose Bowl and had a rivalry with Ohio State which didn’t seem to be going great.

Naturally after moving to the area and covering football more nationally with SB Nation, I began to dive deeper into Michigan football history. Beyond my surveys into the past, I’ve been here for the “wait, I dunno about this” turn in the Brady Hoke era (maybe at MGoBlog the suspicion came earlier), the part where everyone wanted Hoke and Dave Brandon out, the elation for the Jim Harbaugh hire, and the entirety of the Harbaugh tenure.

In my view, the Harbaugh era nearly collapsed in 2018 and my confidence in the program tanked. Yes, ostensibly they had the “Revenge tour” and a 10-win season, but to my eyes the games against Ohio State and Florida revealed Harbaugh’s attempted upgrades had failed to keep up with their rivals or modern football. They handed the offense to Shea Patterson, who proved entirely unworthy of the trust, and the adjustment to hire Josh Gattis to bring an RPO system in 2019 did nothing to make him more effective.

Meanwhile the Don Brown defense was exposed as a mirage. Brown had an aggressive approach heavy on spitfire and low on nuance. What’s worse, they didn’t recruit for it, and as the roster dried of press-man cornerbacks with NFL athleticism, everything got worse and worse.

Normally serious football programs in today’s age don’t give coaches a chance to rebuild a collapse which took place on their own watch. You’re done, out and away. Jim Harbaugh is pretty unique though. He’s the favorite son of the program, had a big contract which was renegotiated, and has been working under a president we now know isn’t long for leadership at the University. So Harbaugh got a chance to retool the program and make a case for retention and a sturdier contract.

Midway through the year and the Wolverines are 6-0 with all the major Big 10 East battles looming. What has Harbaugh done to remake Michigan and how does it look heading into the gauntlet?

[AFTER THE JUMP, JIM HARBAUGH'S ADJUSTMENTS FOR 2021]

The adjustment

Michigan made some pretty serious changes after the 2020 debacle. The defensive coordinator change is an obvious one, I’d argue some of the offensive changes have been pretty substantial and interesting as well.

When Michigan hired Ed Warriner to coach the offensive line in 2018, it was part of an overall shift toward a more typical spread system. Warriner has been an inside zone and spread offensive guy for a long time, dating back to the late 2000’s with Mark Mangino at Kansas before the stint with Urban Meyer at Ohio State. To emphasize the physical yet zone oriented scheme was a big change for Harbaugh and Michigan, who’d been about the true power game previously.

Then for 2021 Jim seems to have said, “if I’m doing down it’s not gonna be because we didn’t run the power properly at Michigan.”

Tight ends coach Sherrone Moore was entrusted with the offensive line, a position he played but had never been directly over before, and Michigan has run “God’s play” a dozen different ways this season and done it very well. While Gattis is up in the booth directing the action, the design of the offense has Harbaugh written all over it. It’s very heavy on power runs, tight end-heavy sets, and hunting matchups from empty dropback sets on passing downs.

It’s a more realized version of the 2016 Wolverines, who had a similar style of play with Wilton Speight at the helm and a “thunder and lightning” combination at tailback with De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans. Everything is more precise with this unit though and there's a different feel overall.

Check out the 2016 Michigan offensive line compared with the current group, we’ll start from after the catastrophic injury which robbed Grant Newsome of a promising career.

This group is bigger, heavier, and was less heralded in recruiting but still well regarded and ultimately more physical and skilled in the run game. The composite pieces of the offense also fit together more cleanly.

The 2016 Wolverines did some of their best work THROWING to the tight end (Jake Butt) and fullback (Khalid Hill) and weren’t particularly explosive running or throwing the ball unless Chris Evans was breaking free against weaker opponents.

The 2021 Wolverines have a clear identity and the pieces fit together quite nicely. They have several good blocking tight ends and a pair of backs who bring power (Hassan Haskins) and explosiveness (Blake Corum), on a more consistent basis.

They also have a quarterback in Cade McNamara with some knowhow and ability to execute Jim Harbaugh’s dropback spread passing game. Some of the same formational tricks and concepts which helped Jake Rudock or Wilton Speight move the chains are now on display with McNamara. Had this team been able to field Ronnie Bell all year they’d be on another level here and in the play-action/RPO game but Harbaugh is still capable of scheming open receivers at the chains if the quarterback can be trusted to hit them in rhythm. Thus far McNamara has been able to get the job done.

On defense, Harbaugh made the necessary adjustment to replace “Dr. Blitz” Don Brown with a less stubborn coordinator. Interestingly enough, he went very young and unproven with this hire.

The story Jim has told has essentially been of older brother John offering him a chance to poach one of his best assistants with the Baltimore Ravens out of love for little brother and Michigan football. This was really a bold choice by Jim, hiring a coach who did some grad assistant/quality control work for Georgia (four years) before moving up to work for the Ravens where he’s been ever since. Mike MacDonald had never been a defensive coordinator at any level and wasn’t coming in with experience of the college game.

John must really like Jim though because MacDonald really seems to get it, regardless of the lack of experience.

The way the Wolverines often stack their two best defenders to the wide side of the field, consequently denying space to college spread offenses, reveals an easy understanding by MacDonald of the task at hand.

Schematically, he brought a 3-4 defensive philosophy taken from the Ravens’ own playbook. He learned under Dean Pees (who worked under Bill Belichik for many years) and then Don Martindale (more of a Rob Ryan disciple). Between Belichik and Ryan you have a wealth of knowledge on 3-4 defensive schemes and you can see some of each influence on this scheme.

The 2021 Wolverines know how to attack protections and will use chaotic looking fronts on passing downs to set up four and five man pressures which often get a favorable 1-on-1 matchup or even a free-hitter into the backfield.

On standard downs the Wolverines have an abundance of two-high AND one-high coverages, as opposed to the simpler days of mostly running press-man with a single deep safety under Brown, or else Cover 2.

Having the ability to confuse quarterbacks with disguised coverages and to shade help over different receivers or routes will be invaluable for this upcoming run against Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State.

The prognosis

The main priority for Harbaugh in 2021 was to save his job, which I believe he's probably already done. They're already bowl eligible, currently undefeated, and pretty darn likely to win 8-9 games even if they lose all three of the big matchups remaining on the schedule.

An 8-4 Michigan isn't particularly exciting right now, yet it would be much better than many expected before the season and rich with potential for the future.

Mike MacDonald is only 34 years old and likely to stick for at least a little before moving on. He has very little coordinator experience, very little experience in recruiting, and as a defensive coach it's harder to get a promotion to "head coach" if he even wanted one yet.

On offense, as effective as Cade McNamara has been at driving the bus, J.J. McCarthy has oozed athletic potential in his limited action, and Michigan's supporting cast on offense is likely to include all of the main characters of 2021 and likely Ronnie Bell as well. The upcoming contests will either cement McNamara as a worthy starter for a team with bigger aspirations or else make it easier to make a change to McCarthy once he's ready.

The offensive line may need to be reworked some for 2021 but will at least return Trevor Keegan, Zac Zinter, and Karsen Barnhart with Ryan Hayes likely back at left tackle as well.

While you never want to throw away a year, the 2022 season sets up very nicely for Michigan and the program appears to be in much stronger overall shape than a year ago.

As for the rest of this season. At this point Michigan fans can't help but begin to wonder if maybe, just maybe, this could be the year where it finally stops. Decent chance of it from what I've seen, but it's probably worth looking at further after they've cleared hurdles like Michigan State and Penn State.

We'll talk more about the specific matchup with the Spartans next week. In the meantime, halfway through 2021 and it appears Harbaugh may be the man for the job after all.

Comments

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^

I wanted Harbaugh gone after last year, too. Most of my reservations remain unanswered.

That's exactly how I feel.  I just voiced my reservations about the future schedule.

I think 9-3 is a real possibility, and that would be very disappointing at this point;

We're on the same page.

I also think that, if Harbaugh can keep the locker room (which is where the revamped staff appears to be key) and keep the team pointed to next year, the offense we field next year could be amazing.

I agree, but there is going to be big holes to fill with Hutch & Dax.  I'm not sure it's a net improvement from this year to next.

he deserves a chance to prove what he can do if the upward trend continues. 

That's where you lost me.  You thought he should have been fired for performance last year and now you think he deserves the chance to continue even if he loses 3-3 to finish.

9-3 isn't great, but it's fine. It's a rebuild year. Our top WR is out for the year and we expect him back. Our 5-star QB may not yet be the guy this year but we can only assume that he'll be ready next year. Corum. Edwards. Good pieces for the OL. 

It's all about growth and trend here. Positive trends, growth, enthusiasm... those draw recruits. Those propogate winning. 

You'd have me sold on that if we were seeing an uptick in recruiting.  But, the team rankings and overall team talent composite has gone down continually over JH's tenure.  I'd like to see it moving in the other direction and am having trouble seeing him ever get over the so called hump where he returns UM to a NC contender as we were somewhat regularly under Carr.

1989 UM GRAD

October 20th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^

You’re misremembering the Carr years. His record was 122-40. He won 75% of the games as head coach. Average record was 9-3. 
 

Michigan did NOT regularly contend for the NC under Carr.  Carr would’ve fared no better than Harbaugh if he were coaching during the playoff era. Michigan has too many institutional challenges and barriers to competing with the 6 or 7 teams who regularly make the playoff. 

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^

You’re misremembering the Carr years. His record was 122-40. He won 75% of the games as head coach. Average record was 9-3. 

The overall record is not that different from JH.  But, the highs and lows are different, as are the records against OSU & MSU.  Carr also had several more top recruiting classes and All Americans at the skill positions on offense in Braylon, Walker, & Terrell.  JH has not produced a single offensive skill All American.  The only All American's JH recruited were Bush & Hurst (but he also coached Lewis, Butt, & Peppers).

  • Carr final top 10 rankings: 5
    • JH final top 10 rankings: 0
  • Carr vs MSU: 10-3
    • JH vs MSU: 3-3
  • Car vs OSU: 6-7
    • JH vs OSU: 0-5
  • Carr B1G Titles: 5
    • JH B1G Titles: 0
  • Carr NCs: 1
    • JH NCs: 0
  • Carr Top 5 Recruiting Classes: 4 (this we can only go back to '99)
    • JH Top 5 Recruiting Classes: 1

jmblue

October 20th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^

We may want to keep in mind that 1) John Cooper’s OSU was not Meyer’s/Day’s and 2) it was possible to share Big Ten titles back then.

If Harbaugh could have gone up against Cooper (who was 2-10-1 against Michigan!) he likely would have a couple of Big Ten titles.  And in fact, under the old rules he’d have shared the title in 2018.

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 12:55 PM ^

We may want to keep in mind that 1) John Cooper’s OSU was not Meyer’s/Day’s and 2) it was possible to share Big Ten titles back then.

I get that, but you have to judge a guy based on how he fares in his era. 

If Harbaugh could have gone up against Cooper (who was 2-10-1 against Michigan!) he likely would have a couple of Big Ten titles.

Maybe, maybe not, but that's speculation.

And in fact, under the old rules he’d have shared the title in 2018.

OK, now you're talking facts.  So we gave one to JH then in this comparison.  The numbers still compare favorable for JH to Carr despite the similar overall records.

Hab

October 19th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^

Given the similarities of the MSU and OSU offenses, I'm excited to see how we shape up defensively in two weeks.  Hopefully nothing but good things.

Hab

October 20th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^

Running with your analogy, I mean a 2021 v 1984 Corvette.  Both have playmakers at the RB position that have the ability to turn out a big play.  MSU has receivers that can take the top off a defense and a QB that can get them the ball if given enough time, reminiscent of OSU's passing attack.  Neither have a dual-threat QB.  The question in both games is going to come down to line play.  I given Michigan the edge in the MSU game.  I'm not sure about the OSU game.

Regarding your thoughts on competition, OSU lost to the only team they played with a pulse.  They've adjusted since, but haven't played anyone to put those adjustments to the test.  We will see as October/November rolls on.  MSU, as you note, has gotten locked down for two entire halves v. Indiana and Nebraska.  They can be contained, sure.  But the style and the ways both teams put points on the board are very similar.  Whether the D can shut down the run and pass against MSU should be encouraging (or cause alarm bells to start ringing) to UM as it assesses its chances against OSU.  

Blue Vet

October 19th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^

Yeah, I knew that.

Just joking but the joke stems from the fact that you clearly explained what had been my vague sense of program improvement, with my general, unformed feeling reinforced by your specific examples. Thanks.

treetown

October 19th, 2021 at 5:57 PM ^

Nice analysis and write up. Thank you for doing this.

Not sure if the weight and size variation is significant, however, with an average difference that small and more interestingly, the OL seems effective despite having less experience than the 2016 line.

Again, great entry - welcome and please keep this up!

 

(edited for typo)

Buy Bushwood

October 19th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^

The author perhaps didn't follow UM in 2016, because to suggest that the passing game was primarily TE and Khalid Hill is absurd.  UM had two well-developed and competent receivers in Chesson and Darboh, and they were the primary focus of passing.  Also, hard to toot the horn of MacDonald at this point, with the utterly tragic offenses we've faced.  Our most recent half of defensive football, Nebraska 2nd half, is the worst of the season.  There is a lot left to be proven.   

TrueBlue2003

October 19th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^

8-4 at the beginning of the season sounded pretty good, but 8-4 now, considering they're already 6-0 would mean losses to all three of the rivals plus a game that they would be favored by double digits.

Things could get ugly if we finish 2-4 (and perhaps rightfully so since it's far less impressive given what's happened to UW (both) and IU - it wouldn't be just a matter of winning the games in the wrong order).

That said, I just don't see that happening.  Most likely scenario is that Michigan goes into The Game at 10-1 with a chance to win the division and comes out 10-2, and while I'm not giving up hope in that game, that's an impressive season with 2022 shaping up to be special.

The DL talent has matured and MacDonald appears to know what to do with all that talent while minimizing the weak spots at corner.

I'm still a little skeptical of the offensive braintrust.  Seems like Harbaugh tried to give the reins to Gattis, it didn't work the past two seasons, Harbaugh reasserted the power rush game and some of the stuff that worked in 2016 but they haven't taken the real step forward with a modern game.  Barring an offensive blossoming in the remaining games (i.e. we somehow outscore OSU), I would hope we'd look elsewhere for an OC for next year.

 

Jonesy

October 19th, 2021 at 8:43 PM ^

As much as I've hated on Gattis for most of his tenure I think he's done a pretty good job this year. If we had a better QB he'd look even better. Two games this year he had to stop calling pass plays because Cade couldn't hit anything and he has schemed open receivers all year long that Cade doesn't throw to (or misses in this last game but the death of his deep ball accuracy appears to be a mirage caused by strong winds).

Now if we could just get rid of the stupid ass read based run game without any reads he'd be great.

Wings Of Distinction

October 19th, 2021 at 6:47 PM ^

I like how you stated the obvious about this being Harbaugh's offense.

I've noticed a lot of Matt Weiss standing near Jim on the sideline, while the shots to the booth show Gattis looking miserable.

Great piece throughout. Thanks.

AWAS

October 19th, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^

Harbaugh's willingness to make major changes in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the need is not necessarily laudable.  However, the EXECUTION of the changes is really quite impressive. The youth movement on the staff brings both new ideas and a more relatable recruiting pitch. 

The team seems more "together"--which is primarily a function of upperclass leadership, but is also related to a coaching message that can be bought into. 

If your expectation is a national championship, you are going to be disappointed.  However, if you wanted to see improvement, there is real reason for hope, and Ian captured that nicely in this post.

abertain

October 19th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^

I remember claiming that harbaugh should do this with the offense. If I was told I was going to lose my job, I’d at least go down doing what I know worked in the past. I just wish they’d combine the run game with more play action,  but I get why JH asserted his style more this year. It’s fun to be unbeaten. Go blue!

nmwolverine

October 19th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^

I just want to know why that highly recruited 2016 offensive line could not punch it in from the one yard line against FSU n the first quarter.  I think this less recruited 2021 line would get it done.

Double-D

October 19th, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^

Michigan has the talent to beat everyone on the schedule.  They are a team that seems to still be learning on both O and D but the coaching is there.

Great write up!

Jonesy

October 19th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^

I think we're at least a little better than both MSU and PSU (especially without Clifford). I think the most likely result is we lose one of those and to OSU before the inevitable bowl game debacle where the team is gutted with injuries and opt outs and nobody cares because we lost to OSU. I'm in my 40s, my first game was a Rose Bowl loss to USC while i was still in the womb, UofM has always sucked in bowl games, I don't hold that against Harbaugh.

AlbanyBlue

October 19th, 2021 at 9:00 PM ^

Say what you want, but this team has a different feel. Execution is crisp, mental mistakes have decreased a great deal. The offense may be Harbaugh's (and I have maintained all along that at least partially it is), but this year the team looks like it knows what it's doing at least in the run game. The pass game is still a work in progress -- whether that's on Cade or the WRs or some combination -- but it is functional at times. Defense is way ahead of where I thought it would be, and it's nice to see players being put in position consistently to make plays.

That said, MSU, PSU, and OSU loom. If Clifford is healthy for the PSU game, it's not a stretch to see us losing all 3. If things break right, it's not a stretch to see us win against MSU and PSU. @MD is also quite trappy. It seems like 8-4 is the floor -- which many of us, including me, would have taken before the season started -- and 11-1 is the ceiling. We're not beating OSU with this passing game, but we have a puncher's chance against MSU and PSU with our team as it is now. 

 

Pumafb

October 19th, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^

So before the season started you would have been ok with 8-4 and the losses being OSU, Penn St, MSU and one of Northwestern/Indiana/Maryland? No way. The fact is, expectations change. Losing to MSU means the season is a failure. Period. At 6-0, anything less than 10-2 is bad and 11-1 if Clifford is out. Maryland a trap game? Have you watched them? They are not a good football team. If Harbaugh and Michigan have improved, they minimally go 4-2 down the stretch and don’t get run off the field by either Penn St or OSU. 

AlbanyBlue

October 20th, 2021 at 8:21 PM ^

Before the season started, I absolutely would have taken 8-4. I predicted 6-6/7-5 with losses to PSU, Wisconsin, and OSU and then 2-3 more losses between UW/Rutgers/MSU/Indiana/Maryland. 8-4 would have been fine in that scenario.

Of course expectations have changed, given that the D seems ahead of schedule on the learning curve and the OL is doing well. I would be pretty unhappy (but not surprised) with 8-4 this season. I am expecting and would be OK with 9-3 or 10-2, and I would be very pleased with 11-1.

I agree losing to MSU would be horrible, but we better brace ourselves, since they are absolutely built to attack the weak link in our D. 

And @MD in-between @PSU and OSU is the definition of trap game, because they are not that great and easy to overlook due to the schedule.  

sambora114

October 19th, 2021 at 9:28 PM ^

Really appreciate your perspective. It's nice having a relatively unbiased assessment of Michigan football when you're not an obsessed lifetime fan like most of us here (like me).

Harbaugh did enough to get fired but I believe he also did enough to have another chance. Regime changes are not without risk and slam dunk hires are extremely rare. Hopefully Michigan football can continue to play well and have some momentum heading into 2022.

BlueSky

October 19th, 2021 at 9:28 PM ^

My favorite writer on this blog.  Great mix of larger, strategic points and detail that supports the former.  Great talent to make things understandable.

Snake Oil Steve

October 19th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^

Unfortunately I don't see this team beating OSU - their passing game & WRs are elite, and our CBs are not (Dax can only lock one of them up).  Our best chance in that game is playing Red Zone roulette and just let them gain yards between the 20s, force them to execute in the Red Zone, and avoid huge plays for TDs.

The MSU game is huge, and I actually think Macdonald should adopt a similar strategy in that game.  MSU's offense has been explosive but not that efficient.  I'm actually doubtful that Clifford will be 100% for the rest of the season (assuming its a ribs injury, and that will not fully heal if hes trying to play in the PSU-OSU game).  If Clifford isn't 100%, I really like our chances in that game too.

McGreenB

October 19th, 2021 at 10:43 PM ^

As for the rest of this season. At this point it's for Michigan fans not to start to wonder if maybe, just maybe, this could be the year where it finally stops.
 

Did this get proofread at all? There are some sentences in this that just don’t make sense. 

JBLPSYCHED

October 20th, 2021 at 7:27 AM ^

We may be underestimating the impact of Harbaugh's renewed focus and enthusiasm on this year's success thus far. Last year (and 1-2 years prior) he seemed weirdly robotic and nonplussed by the whole prospect of coaching Michigan. Then he (presumably) shopped around for better opportunities, didn't find any, and rededicated himself to succeeding at Michigan. He lost weight--which I think indicates he's holding himself accountable--and his energy is completely different, for the better. This season shows marked improvement so far with at least 3 big tests upcoming. There's no reason to think we'll fail those tests; this team has been gutsy and resilient and clearly cares about winning. Just like their coach. Go Blue!