Preview: Ohio State
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
Michigan (10-6, 3-1 B1G) at Ohio State (13-4, 2-2) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio |
WHEN | 7 pm ET, Tuesday |
LINE | Ohio State -10 (KenPom) |
TV |
ESPN PBP: Mike Tirico Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: Don't mock me, Thad. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE STAKES
This game is all about upside for Michigan, as nobody really expects them to win this one: Ohio State is 100-9 at home since 2009-10, the Wolverines haven't exactly impressed even during their back-to-back wins, and both KenPom and Vegas have the Buckeyes favored by ten.
Pull off the upset, though, and Michigan would suddenly have a signature win while sitting, however briefly, alone atop the conference standings. (Wisconsin, Maryland, and Michigan State don't play tonight.) To get to 12 conference wins—the likely target number for an NCAA bid—they're going to have to pull out an unlikely win or two, and this would certainly qualify.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 3 | Shannon Scott | Sr. | 6'1, 185 | 74 | 21 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Great defender, facilitates offense well, still not much of a shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 0 | D'Angelo Russell | Fr. | 6'5, 180 | 79 | 29 | No | ||||||||||||
Volume scorer. Great outside shooter, even off dribble. Solid passer, too. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 12 | Sam Thompson | Sr. | 6'7, 200 | 73 | 17 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Ridiculous hops. Very good finisher. Not a good shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 2 | Marc Loving | So. | 6'7, 215 | 63 | 20 | No | ||||||||||||
50% at both 2P and 3P. Gets to line. Underwhelming rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 23 | Amir Williams | Sr. | 6'11, 250 | 46 | 17 | Very | ||||||||||||
Effective finisher, good rebounder, blocks lots of shots. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 1 | Jae'Sean Tate | Fr. | 6'4, 190 | 43 | 20 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Excellent on the boards, good finisher, active defender. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 15 | Kam Williams | Fr. | 6'2, 175 | 40 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
Efficient scorer sticks mostly to spot-up threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 55 | Trey McDonald | Sr. | 6'8, 240 | 28 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
Very good rebounder, especially on offense. Decent rim protector. |
THE RESUME
The Buckeyes dropped just two non-conference games, both to top-ten teams, falling at #9 Louisville and dropping a neutral-court game to #9 UNC. They played the rest of their non-conference schedule at home and won every game handily, though the top-ranked team they beat was #95 Marquette.
They're off to just a 2-2 start to Big Ten play. OSU lost their opener at home to Iowa when freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell had a rough day from the field and the defense turned in an uncharacteristically poor performance. After a blowout home victory over Illinois and a thrilling overtime triumph at Minnesota, they fell by three points at Indiana on Saturday when, once again, Russell went cold.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE OBLIGATORY GIF
THE THEM
While the Buckeyes aren't nearly as strong a defensive team as they were last season—although, at 44th nationally in defensive efficiency, they certainly aren't bad—they've made major strides offensively; neither of those is a huge surprise considering they replaced Aaron Craft with Russell, trading a defensive ace with major offensive shortcomings for a talented freshman scorer.
Ohio State actually began the season running the 2-3 zone almost exclusively, but Thad Matta scrapped that for a man-to-man look after they were dismantled by the Hawkeyes. The results have been mixed. They held Illinois, before Rayvonte Rice's injury, to just 0.86 points per possession and forced 20 turnovers. In the two games since, however, they've given up a hair above one PPP despite keeping their turnover rate above 20%.
One guy they don't have to worry about on defense is point guard Shannon Scott, who's essentially a less-heralded Craft; he's a great defender, posts a huge assist rate, and struggles with his jumper and the occasional turnover. Even though Scott stands at just 6'1", it wouldn't surprise at all if Matta deployed him on Caris LeVert, especially with Derrick Walton still struggling to get to the basket.
The headliner is D'Angelo Russell, who's averaging a hair under 18 points per game while shooting 46% from two, 45% from three, and 79% from the line. He's more than just a scorer, too, pulling down 4.6 rebounds and dishing out 4.9 assists per game—he sees the floor very well off the dribble. Finding a way to slow him down is obviously priority one.
Forward Sam "Slam" Thompson more than lives up to his nickname, using his spectacular vertical to hit 63% of his twos—often thunderous dunks—and record a decent number of blocks for a 6'7" wing. Pull him away from the basket, however, and he becomes far less effective; he's just 10/44 from outside the arc.
Sophomore Marc Loving is in the midst of a breakout year after the former Parade All-American turned in an underwhelming freshman season. He's an extremely effective spot-up shooter, hitting 50% of his threes on nearly half his attempts from the field; he can also create his own offense inside the arc, posting a 50% mark on two-pointers along with an impressive free throw rate. His rebound numbers are lacking for a guy who spends the majority of his time at the four; otherwise, he's been a very pleasant surprise for OSU this season.
Center Amir Williams posts solid numbers but is also the guy most likely to make Ohio State fans tear at their hair in frustration. His block rate is 12th in the country. He pulls down a healthy number of boards on both ends. In a very limited offensive role, he hits 71% of his shots. Still, he's prone to going for blocks when he should be boxing out, and he remains turnover-prone on offense.
Freshman sixth man Jae'Sean Tate provides a much-needed rebounding boost off the bench despite standing at just 6'4"; his strong physique and excellent instincts allow him to post rebounding rates on par with the 6'11" Williams. Tate also finishes quite well around the hoop, knocking down twos at a 65% clip; he also draws a good number of fouls, though he's just a 53% free-throw shooter. Tate will be a tough draw for Zak Irvin, who'll spend more time fighting in the post than he's accustomed to.
Redshirt freshman Kam Williams gives the Buckeyes an efficient scorer off the bench, though he hasn't played much recently. He's posted 63/42/88 shooting splits this season, so his lack of minutes of late is almost certainly related to issues on the defensive end of the court. Senior Trey McDonald, a wide-bodied center who's tough to handle on the offensive boards, will spell Williams for stretches along with grad-year transfer Anthony Lee, who hasn't made the impact many expected while dealing with some nagging injuries.
THE TEMPO-FREE
The Buckeyes boast the #21 offense in the country due in large part to some impressive shooting numbers: they're seventh in two-point percentage and 32nd from beyond the arc, though their outside shooting has gone cold during Big Ten play. They take care of the ball and crash the boards pretty well; if there's a weakness, it's that they don't get to the line very often.
OSU's defense forces the seventh-most turnovers in the country—which helps fuel a solid transition game—and they block a ton of shots. Despite the latter, however, they've been poor at defending inside the arc in conference play, letting opponents hit over 50% of their twos. A big factor in that has been awful defensive rebounding—they've allowed the highest offensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten.
THE KEYS
Slow down Russell. The common thread among Ohio State's losses has been poor outings from D'Angelo Russell. Michigan will reportedly start out by putting Derrick Walton on him, which may be their best option—even while hampered by the toe injury, Walton's been better than Caris LeVert at fighting over screens, an important factor given Russell's ability to hit threes off the bounce. Given Russell's shot chart...
...forcing him right as much as possible also seems like a good idea. If all else fails, Michigan has to make sure to at least run him off the three-point line—while he's deadly from the outside, he's still got work to do as a finisher inside the arc.
Protect the rock. Even after their switch to man-to-man, Ohio State has been very proficient in forcing turnovers, and they're a really good transition team when they do so. Michigan has to be careful with the ball and at the very least avoid live-ball turnovers that OSU can turn into instant offense. Going up strong around the hoop will be key—the block-steal combination has led to more than one highlight-worthy Sam Thompson fast break throwdown this season.
Unleash Doyle. If Michigan's going to win, I think it'll take a big game from the freshman center, and I also don't believe that's too unreasonable to expect. If LeVert/Walton/Albrecht can work their way close to the hoop, Amir Williams is liable to go for blocks that should create opportunities for little drop passes to Doyle. OSU has also given up a lot of second-shot opportunities, and Doyle's been strong on the offensive boards this season; I don't expect M to throw many other bodies at the glass due to the efficient Buckeye transition attack. So long as Doyle can stay out of a foul trouble—something he should be able to do against a low-usage center like Williams—he should get as many minutes as he can handle.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Ohio State by 10.
The Buckeye weaknesses—two-point defense and defensive rebounding—aren't exactly ones Michigan is best-equipped to exploit. Meanwhile, their strengths—a stellar scoring guard, consistently efficient two-point shooting—are in areas the Wolverines have had a tough time handling. Shutting down Russell is no easy task, and I'm not confident M's perimeter defenders are up to it.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Five-star 2015 prospect Jaylen Brown will take an official visit to Ann Arbor on January 24th, which is pretty cool, in my opinion.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^
-10
Might as well slap on another five because that place is going to be rocking considering what happened last night. Sorry to be negative, but I think UM gets blown out tonight.
neg away, neg away
January 13th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
Not sure there is much correlation between the two. In January 2003, a few days after OSU won its last national title in football, we went to Columbus and beat them in basketball.
January 13th, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
January 13th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
I will be in the building. Michigan hoodie and khakis. I'm gonna be so sick of hearing the Buckeye fans...
January 13th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^
I love that it ends/repeats and he is *still* standing there holding his pose.
January 13th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^
I like the D'Angelo background haha.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:33 PM ^
Love The Wire!!!
January 13th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
I'm the only person I know that uses the word knocko.
January 13th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
#TeamBodie
January 13th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
Michigan will be in the game some way due to Beilein genius. Whether they win depends on if the 3 point shooting (Zak - come on man) wakes up and Mr. Walton continues where he left off last game.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
Michigan's kind of in a "show me" state right now. How they do depends on how much they grow from week to week, which is going to be in fits and starts.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^
I'm aware of the rules.
Fuck the rules.
Win. The. Game.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:44 PM ^
Of how unbearable the Schott will be tonight. I will represent nonetheless! GO BLUE!
January 13th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^
I was at the game two years ago when Michigan came in ranked #2, OSU was coming off an ugly loss to someone, and OSU still went up something to the effect of 20-25 points in the first half.
I have a bad feeling that tonight could be the very same way for Michigan. Except there won't be a furiously mounted comeback at the end of the game.
Not that the OSU basketball team accomplished anything last night, but I just think with everything that's happened in Columbus in the past 24 hours, the energy in their arena will just be blowing the roof off the place. On top of getting your hated rival in the building, who's having a down year and also beat your team twice last year, I'm not sure I see Michigan being in this game very much.
January 13th, 2015 at 2:54 PM ^
Would anything be sweeter at this very moment than beating OSU's basketball team at home after the NC win? I can't think of one.
January 13th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
Adding insult to injury by beating them at home the night after they lost the NC Game would be better. As would beating them at home after they are still despondant over a 0-12 football season. But I guess neither are in play at the moment....
January 13th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
Hopefully the fans and players are hung over from last night.
January 13th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^
Is he redshirting?
January 13th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
Just has a very limited role right now—23 minutes combined in the four Big Ten games, including a DNP against Iowa. He's put up decent numbers but mostly against the lesser teams on the schedule.
January 13th, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
January 13th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
Only 3 in a row. The last game of 12-13, the only regular season game of 13-14, and the Big Ten Tournament game.
Agree about the schedule though, kind of like forcing us to play in East Lansing 2 years in a row for football.
January 13th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^
I see two ways for us to win tonight:
1) OSU was out celebrating last night and is hungover.
2) John Beilein is literally a wizard.
January 13th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
I don't expect to win, but it wouldn't be that shocking if we did. We're not facing the Greg Oden OSU team.
January 13th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
Two reasons I think it's super unlikely we win:
We're a bad road team I think (limited sample size, obviously) and the crowd tonight is going to be nuts. And we're a bad zone offense. We're going to have one of our massive funks and during that funk OSU will score 12-15 and take a big lead. Probably to open the game.
January 13th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
We haven't been great this year, but being physically limited at PG has been a major factor. If Walton is getting healthier, that changes things a lot. He looked like he was moving a lot better against Minnesota.
January 13th, 2015 at 6:00 PM ^
I don't care what Kenpom says. Let's get the win! Go Blue!
January 13th, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^
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