Preseason Blogpoll Draft Ballot Comment Count

Tim August 23rd, 2010 at 9:04 AM

This is admittedly quite hasty. Please, please, please tear it apart so I have a decent entry for the final ballot. I haven't looked at any preseason magazines, and I threw this together in just a few minutes from memory. I'd run down a few of the things I'm not sure about... but there are too many of them.

Comments

formerlyanonymous

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:10 AM ^

Commenting on a pre-season ballot is futile. But question: is USC eligible for votes and/or a request for explanation on their absense. They seem at least fringe worthy in my mind.

How is Oregon's QB this year? Auburn seems high. I know they're supposed to be a bit better this year, but are we gambling on Malzahn finally hitting it big? Is Mallett not enough to get Arkansas on the list?

I'm also bullish on Clemson since Parker turned down playing in the MLB. But like all pre-season Clemson hope, it will also crash and burn by week 7.

zlionsfan

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:23 AM ^

is untested; I'm not sure what else we can say for sure. With Masoli's sequence of graduation-arrest-suspension-transfer, whoever runs the Ducks' offense will have very little live experience with it.

Considering the effect he had last year - the only thing for which I can vouch personally is the win over Purdue: in that game, the Boilers came into Autzen and slowed down pretty much all the offense except for Masoli; apparently the concept of a mobile QB still, well, escaped them - I would expect the Ducks to struggle quite a bit more this year, but you never know.

Logan88

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^

  • FSU is waaaaayyyyyy too high, if they are in the poll at all they should be no higher than 20th.
  • Nebraska is too low, if you look at their schedule they should finish no worse than 10-2 in the regular season. They should be in the Top 10.
  • Oregon State is a tough call as they often seem to finish with 8 wins, but they have a new QB this season and a pretty tough schedule. I would drop them out and replace them with Utah.
  • TCU is waaaaaayyyyy too low, they should be near the Top 10. They are very likely going to win the MWC this season and play in a BCS bowl game.
  • Washington was 5-7 last season with two VERY lucky wins over USC and Arizona. They should not be ranked. They will not finish better than 7-5 this season and I don't think they will even get that many wins.
  • You have UConn but not WVU in your poll? I would swap them, personally,

Sorry, if this came off the wrong way, but you DID ask us to "tear this apart".

Tim

August 23rd, 2010 at 2:33 PM ^

 


Nebraska is too low, if you look at their schedule they should finish no worse than 10-2 in the regular season. They should be in the Top 10.

Don't care about their schedule, and I'm not predicting their final record. I care about how good the team looks on paper. The preseason poll is a straight power ranking.

mattkast

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:23 AM ^

FSU at 9? Seems a bit of a stretch IMO. Nebraska will be higher than you put them, as will Iowa. Not sure if I'd put the Gators ahead of the Broncos when Boise only lost something like 2 starters and return their insanely efficient quarterback. 

 

Everything else comes to a push

Needs

August 23rd, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^

Iowa returns best D-line in nation. History of producing good linebackers. The defense will be fine. Good wideouts, Stanzi can be good when he doesn't play Stanziball. OL might be problem, but they deserve the benefit of the doubt much more than Penn State, whose only good win a year ago was LSU on a terrible field, and that was a mediocre LSU team. They got curb stomped by the two good Big 10 teams they played.  (Iowa and OSU).

I think UM fans are reading too much into our relative performances against Penn State and Iowa. Iowa was clearly the better team last year and has fewer questions than PSU entering this year.

AAL

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:38 AM ^

I guess I'd say the Big East champ will almost certainly finish higher than #17. I also think Ga. Tech will finish in the top 25 since Paul Johnson came out of the womb with the letter "W" tatted on his chest.

the_white_tiger

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:38 AM ^

  • TCU at 23? They return a ton of talent and will probably finish win ten or eleven regular season wins.
  • Iowa should be at least higher than Penn State.
  • Nevada probably should not be in the top 25, but definitely not in the top twenty.
  • Florida State and Auburn are probably a little too high.
  • The top five is pretty good, but I'd flip Boise State and Florida.
  • I don't think Washington should be ranked, maybe replace them with LSU, West Virginia, or Cincinnati.

Mgoscottie

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:39 AM ^

the Iowa for penn state switch. 

PSU lost so much and lost to Iowa last year.

I like FSU high in the poll, tons of defensive talent. 

Plus put Michigan in there so they get some votes. 

wooderson

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:47 AM ^

I'd put Iowa in the top 10 even though I agree with Brian and others that they may be due for a fall this year.  The fact is they're a team that won a BCS game and brings back a lot of their key guys, so that should count for something in a pre-season poll. 

GoBlueYork

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^

1) Auburn shouldn't be ranked.

2) Va Tech goes through this every year. Ranked in the top 10, then ends up somewhere in the 20s to unranked.

3) NEVADA AT 19!? THEIR SECONDARY IS WORSE THAN MICHIGAN'S!!!!! STOP WITH THIS COLIN KAEPERNICK LOVE AFFAIR!!!

4) TCU should be ranked higher.

5) Georgia and PSU should be ranked lower...much much lower.

6) Agree with the high OU ranking.

GoBlueYork

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:14 AM ^

Point well taken, but each year, there's always some bizarre loss:

2009: Home loss to a 4-3 UNC (0-3 in conference at the time

2008: East Carolina

2007: Home collapse against BC

2006: Back to back beat downs against GT and BC

2005: No real bad losses

2004: Home loss against NC State

lhglrkwg

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:35 AM ^

but that doesn't justify your first point. va tech normally finishes in or near the top 10.

in reference to the post above, they haven't had 6 straight 10 win seasons. i think it's 6 or the last 7. they had a 8 or 9 win season last year, but the point remains, 10 win BCS teams don't finish in the 20's or unranked

GoBlueYork

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^

But they typically go 10-3 or 10-4 (in years when they play in the ACC Championship game)

Teams with 3 or 4 losses don't typically finish in the top 10.

Top 10 teams also don't lose the type of games VT has lost over the past 6 seasons.

joeyb

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:56 AM ^

Florida and Oklahoma are ranked way too high considering they are both losing 1st round picks and Heisman winners at QB. I don't know what else they are losing, but that alone indicates they definitely should not be ranked in the top 5 and maybe even top 10.

Tim

August 23rd, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^

Bradford hardly played last year. I think "losing" him is a vast overstatement.

Plus, ast year was a transition year for the Sooners, built toward success this year. The OL is developing, their D should be nasty, and as an added bonus, they now have an experienced QB, which they weren't planning on.

EGD

August 23rd, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^

I don't know about the Connecticut Huskies, but I think the Washington Huskies will be very good this season if Locker stays healthy.  I don't see why Washington's win over USC last year would be considered "lucky."  Washington definitely had two very unlucky road losses to Arizona State and ND.  Bottom line is they played a very difficult schedule last season (LSU to start, at ND, and then a solid Pac-10) and were very competitive, and should be substantially improved this season. 

Chuck Norris

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:02 AM ^

Since they're returning their heisman winner and most of their offense, I wouldn't drop Alabama out of the top spot just yet.

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Boise State

That's how it should look, imo.

cadmus2166

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:07 AM ^

Florida should be #5 at best.  Oklahoma should probably move down to #4, behind Boise St. and Alabama.

Florida St.  should be around #15.  Auburn shouldn't be there at all.

Georgia should probably be around #20.  Nebraska should be somewhere between #5-#10.

Penn St. should drop about 5 spots.  Nevada doesn't belong in the poll.  Iowa should be about #13, at WORST, should probably be in top 10.

TCU should move up. 

Sorry for so many issues, but I have looked at several preseason reports. 

Hardware Sushi

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:11 AM ^

I'm incredibly surprised by Iowa as many others are stating. The BCS win and the key returners earn them a ranking in the 8-10 range for me.

I like your ranking of Wisconsin. I think they will be the second best Big Ten team and will end up with just one loss going into a bowl game.

Florida seems too high. They fit in the top 10, but I don't know other than recruiting class rankings how they should reasonably be higher than the 8-10 spots as well. New QB, no established WRs, totally rebuilt defense.

While they may not merit a high ranking now, I think you will see Pitt win and win and win. I love the program Wannstedt is building and they have studs in Romeus, Lewis and Baldwin. Move them to 12 and drop Auburn from the rankings. Chizik sucks and has yet to prove he can win in a BCS conference (Big12 or SEC).

I've got Oregon State as a surprise winner of the Pac-10. They may not deserve a higher ranking right now, but if you're trying to guess where they'll perform or end the season at, I would have them in the low teens. New QB, yes, but dang Jaquizzzz is sweet and Mike Riley always seems to maximize what he's working with at OSU.

Not sure why TCU is low, I assume you have a hunch/reason. I'd personally have them as a top-10 team along with Nebraska. The two I'd drop out to make room for them? Texas and Oregon. Texas because I think they're at best, with a new QB, no dominant RB, and the loss of their two biggest playmakers on O and D (Shipley and Campbell), the third or maybe even fourth best team in the Big 12. I see them dropping the OU and Nebraska games as well as one to either A&M or Texas Tech. Tommy Tuberville does know how to win the rivalry games. As for Oregon, I think the Pac-10 got a lot deeper this season and we see the new quarterback perform well yet have a few of those first-year type of games with 3 picks or a few bad pitches that contribute to losses to OSU (my Pac-10 dark horse winner), and at least 2 to Washington, USC, Stanford, and Arizona.

I'm glad you ranked UConn. Whether we were playing them or not (even though I sound more biased), they were 15 points from being undefeated. Granted, you don't lose those 5 games if you're a great team, but I'm not arguing that. I think you have them in a good spot.

And get Michigan and/or some other Big Ten teams some love! Maybe we do only have 4 top-25 teams this season in our league, but you can't be wrong in the preseason. My choice: Northwestern at 21 and Michigan at 25. You can take either of them out after week one if they don't perform.

That's my opinion. Good start to the year!

M_Go_Bleu

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^

A lot of people are saying FSU is way too high, but they all seem to think FSU needs to be where everyone else has them. FSU could be a top 10 team, they certainly have a very good offense. We'll see about the defense in week 2 vs. Oklahoma.

What concerns me more is the fact that you have 3 ACC teams back-to-back-to-back. I think it's unlikely that any conference could finish like that, after they all play and beat each other up.

zlionsfan

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:51 AM ^

Florida State and Virginia Tech do not play during the regular season this year, so that's one (possibly) significant hurdle the Hokies will not have to overcome, barring an ACC title game matchup.

Then again, that may not make up for the opener against Boise and the November stretch of Georgia Tech/at North Carolina/at Miami ... although the Georgia Tech game is on a Thursday, so they'll get extra time to prepare for that game and extra time before the UNC game.

lhglrkwg

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^

returning starters or not, they had a tremendous amount of luck that got them into the top 10. i think even with the same guys that they can't repeat last season's performance.

and personally, i don't think I'd even rank penn state until they can prove that they have a decent quarterback

zlionsfan

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:47 AM ^

or perhaps even too high. They did win a BCS bowl last year, yes, but they got there by recording two impressive wins (at PSU and at Wisconsin) and a lot of questionable ones: four wins by three points or fewer, all over very unimpressive teams (sigh).

I expect them to return to the middle of the pack this year. Whether or not that would be in the top 25, I don't know.

I have concerns about Nevada as well. They should be good this year, but then they should have been good last year, and it took them three weeks of crapping the bed to get things straightened out. (35-0. Whatever.) Even then, their only remaining test was the loss at Boise State, a game where they were never really that close, and then there was the disaster against SMU at the end of the season.

Might as well keep moving up ... I'm not sure the Pac-10 will improve this year, so I think it may pull Stanford down with it. Obviously someone's going to have to fill Gerhart's shoes. The Cardinal did join the I-AA bandwagon (either that or they're helping Sacramento State with their application for WAC membership), and their other non-conference game (besides ND) is the home part of the home-and-home with Wake, so the schedule does look better. I'm just not sure they'll be as good as last year.

And no, I don't have suggestions for replacements if you move these teams down ...

MGoRobo

August 23rd, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^

1. Bama at #4?  They are either a lock #1 or a maybe #2, unless you're just that high on OSU.

2. Boise should be a top 3-4 team.

3. TCU should be much higher, at least for preseason. We'll see how they finish.

4. Oklahoma and Florida should both be on the bad end of the top 10.  Oklahoma played without Bradford last year and look where that got them.  Not top 10 material, though I would understand a top 10 ranking based on the rest of the team.  Florida, well...they'll be good.  I just don't think that good.

5. I would definitely put the Razorbacks in there among the top 15-20.

6. Auburn looks a bit too high to me.

7. I'm confused as to why Nevada is there...haha

jlvanals

August 23rd, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^

I think FSU is way, way too high for a team that hasn't won 10 games in what seems like a decade.  But I guess that's a matter of preference: are you rating on what you think theyre going to do or on what they did last year or some combination thereof?  If that's the case, I can see FSU being that high, but I'm just not convinced that defense isn't going to be one giant blackhole this year.

James Howlett

August 23rd, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^

Well, if you believe the computer analysis of Football Outsiders and Jeff Sagarin who had Iowa finishing the 2008, according to their "predictor"(this is heavily influenced by margin of victory and it is the ranking Sagarin believes is his most accurate.)model that Iowa was the 19th and 17th team, respectively.. College Football Resource's SRS(Simple Ratings System. Simple-minded?), very similar to the methodology of the forementioned ratings above they used in ranking the historic most overrated MNC's winner's and had UM's 1997 MNC winning team as the 2nd most overrated ever (BYU #1...which you really don't need even a solar calculator to believe). It had UM as the 5th best team that year. Don't worry though, Nebraska wasn't ranked #1, they had them at #2 behind  FSU at #1.

I give you the courage of your convictions if you believe Iowa 'lucky' last year(I assume you believe they were "unlucky" in 2008 since they went 9-4 with the four losses by a combined 12 points and all played on the road. So, does that balance out to 4 losses this year??? Seems like the crude "luck" relationship would cancel each other out and this third year would start a new "luck" cycle. Iowa played a lot of close games, two against opponets they should have whipped up on. They also played one of the top 10 hardest schedules in the country. They played four teams who won 10 games or more, and they beat three of them. Two on the road the third at neutral site. The loss coming to OSU in overtime without their starting QB. But, hey that and returning 14 starters(16 since both starting kickers return, one an All-American)including argurably the best player in the conference(Clayborn).and the bulk of their tough games in Kinnick.

Something germaine to the prediction might be injuries. Iowa, had a unusual number of injuries that kept some games closer than they should have been and yet they still went 11-2 playing a very tough schedule. When they were at their healthiest(and so was the opposing team)they beat a top 10 team, Georgia Tech, 24-14, and out gained them 403 to 155 yards. A whipping in fact, if not score...do the computers factor those kinds of things? Injuries? Strategy? Tactics? Game situations?

Then there's some of the guys who were out all last year are back. Including their most talented RB, Jewel Hampton, who BTN's Howard Griffith says he fully expects to be among the top few in contention for the conference rushing title. A projected starter, Jordan Bernstein, cornerback, who's been overtaken by surprising sophomore Micah Hyde. He'll be their nickle back. Paul Cheney, their top kick returner in 2008 is back.

So,  16 starters not including those three, and their biggest games in one of the toughest places to play in the conference(the last decade Iowa has a .785 winning record their second only to OSU's home record.)if not the country.

Iowa, argurably, might fall to 10-14 but, 20? C'mon.

KBLOW

August 23rd, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^

Good for you for having Alabama at only four (though I think given the losses on D 5 or 6 would be better to start). Miami is way too high and Penn St. is as well. 

Blue Blue Blue

August 23rd, 2010 at 11:49 AM ^

college teams change so much from year to year, way more than pro teams.    most of the posters on this thread have not seen 2/3 of the teams they are commenting on, and certainly have little idea of who/ what is new, hurt etc.

so this like the blind man's beauty pageant, with entrants competing my mail.

the season cant start too soon!