THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#27 Michigan (12-8, 3-6 Big Ten) vs #25 Rutgers (16-5, 7-3)
WHERE	Madison Square Garden New York, New York
WHEN	4:30 pm Eastern Saturday, Feb. 1st
THE LINE	Rutgers -1 (KenPom) Rutgers -2.6 (Torvik)
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler NCAA Shill: Andy Katz

THE LOCATION

This should've been a Michigan home game. Instead it's a "home" game at Madison Square Garden. While the program has had a lot of success at MSG, winning nine straight there, you usually want the home team to take a bus to the game while the road team flies there, not vice versa.

Because of the neutral site, Rutgers is favored on both KenPom and Torvik. I'm peeved. Peeved, I tell you!

THE US

Seth's graphic, now with CJ Baird Zavier Simpson again [click to embiggen]:

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We have a non-update on Isaiah Livers (injured) regarding his availability.

DeJulius says Isaiah Livers has been practicing a little bit. Says the injury is not nearly as bad as the previous one — but he and the staff are being extra cautious.

— Max Marcovitch (@Max_Marcovitch) January 31, 2020

I remain skeptical Livers is close to returning given the similarities between his first and second injury. Simpson's status doesn't look good; Dotman is reporting on the 247 board that he isn't traveling with the team.

UPDATE: Simpson has been reinstated just in time to travel with the team:

Breaking News from 〽️?

Juwan Howard reinstates senior guard Zavier Simpson#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/NQ3tvTtYC7

— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) January 31, 2020

So that's some good news.

The Nebraska win steadied Michigan's spot in the Bracket Matrix after a bit of a freefall. They're the last nine-seed at the moment and listed on 92 of 98 brackets; critically, they're two seed lines ahead of fellow Big Ten bubble teams Purdue and Minnesota. If the Big Ten gets ten teams in the field instead of the current projection of 12(!), those two are on the chopping block before the Wolverines, at least for the moment.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

After a 6-3 start that included underwhelming losses against St. Bonaventure and Pitt, Rutgers has been one of the best teams in the country—no, seriously—ever since, going 10-2 with narrow losses on the road at Iowa and Illinois. Among their notable victories: a 20-point shellacking of #11 Seton Hall and home conference wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue. They're ranked 25th in this week's AP poll. This was, to say the least, not the expectation when leading scorer and rebounder Eugene Omoruyi unexpectedly transferred in the offseason.

Steve Pikiell has put together solid defensive squads in his four seasons at Rutgers, however, and this year's edition has taken a leap into the top ten; meanwhile, their offense has broken into the top 100 for the first time since 2012-13, two coaching regimes ago.

One of the first things that stands out about Rutgers, in stark contrast to Michigan's last opponent, is their size. They're 36th nationally in average height, per KenPom. Their most-used lineup doesn't have a player shorter than 6'4" and features three who weigh at least 230 pounds, including 6'11" sophomore center Myles Johnson. They play big, too, with strong rebounding marks on both ends and a stingy interior defense that blocks a lot of shots.

Starting up front, Johnson is a large dude who rebounds and defends quite well. He's an excellent finisher on putbacks and plays created by his teammates; he's not great at creating his own offense and doesn't have much range outside the paint. While he draws a lot of fouls, he's a liability at the line, shooting only 36% this season after posting a 17-for-42 mark as a freshman. His backup, senior Shaq Carter, is a smaller, less effective version of Johnson. They split minutes approximately 70/30.

At 6'6", 245 pounds, power forward Ron Harper Jr. is burlier than his father, the five-time NBA champion. Harper does his best work near the rim and he's able to work his way there while keeping his turnover rate low. He's also a decent weakside shot-blocker and good defensive rebounder. While not much of an outside shooter yet, his solid percentage at the line indicates he's got promise there, and he's still one of the team's most effective offensive threats.

6'6", 230 senior Akwasi Yeboah is another strong finisher in the paint; at 35% from beyond the arc, he's also one of the team's better shooters. His strength can be tough to handle at the three. Usually Michigan can give Franz Wagner a defensive respite, at least from seriously physical play, by putting him at the three; that won't be the case Saturday. Yeboah is usually good for an offensive rebound or two per game.

The backcourt has become an unusual five-man rotation. You probably expected guard Geo Baker to be listed earlier if you've watched Rutgers the last couple years. His role has diminished since a thumb injury cost him three games at the beginning of the month. He averaged 12.3 points in 31.4 minutes per game before the injury, starting every game; he's come off the bench since his return, averaging 6.4 points in 22.2 minutes. He can pour in points when he's got it going but too often he's an inefficient chucker. His shot chart:

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Baker remains the team's most effective distributor, however, and he's a decent finisher when he gets all the way to the rim. To his credit, he does a good job of keeping his midrange attempts low. His bad shots are mostly of the contested off-the-dribble three variety.

When Baker isn't running the offense, that task often falls to a couple taller options. 6'7", 190-pound sophomore Caleb McConnell is currently starting as the nominal point guard; he's averaging 10.0 points, 3.0 assists, and 2.1 turnovers since Baker's injury moved him into the starting lineup. He's a streaky player who's more inclined to attack the basket than shoot from the outside, though he's got a decent three-point shot. 6'6", 205-pound freshman Paul Mulcahy fills a similar role off the bench with less aggressive scoring, a worse outside shot, and more turnovers. He's far more likely to pass than shoot.

The fifth starter is 6'4" sophomore swingman Montez Mathis, who Rutgers uses as their primary perimeter defender. He must be holding up well in that regard in Pikiell's eyes because he's shooting 39% on twos and 33% on threes. Rounding out the rotation is 6'2" junior Jacob Young, a volume shooter putting up some awful percentages with a high turnover rate; his ORating is a woeful 82.5 but he's still willing to put up a quarter of the team's shots when he's on the floor.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Rutgers has a top-ten defense! That feels worth repeating. They've accomplished this by making life particularly tough inside the arc; they block a lot of shots, force a lot of turnovers, and make it tough to score by sending help on drivers and trusting their length to contest three-pointers. That's worked quite well; even though they give up a ton of three-point attempts, opponents are making only 30.3% of them, and that number has actually gone down in Big Ten play.

The offense is still below-average for a Big Ten team, but they scrape by with decent scoring at the basket, a healthy number of trips to the line, and generating second chances. Actual shooting is a major, major problem: Rutgers is 300th in 3P% and 322nd in FT%. The Scarlet Knights don't take many threes, which seems wise, albeit limiting.

THE KEYS

Brandon Johns. With Michigan presumably playing without Livers, Johns has another game where he needs to really step up. Whether he draws Harper or Yeboah—my guess is Harper—he's going to have an opponent that can match his strength. He's going to have to play a strong defensive game all around—as an on-ball defender, weakside rim protector, and rebounder.

Controlled forays. Rutgers will turn up the heat on ballhandlers as they drive to the hoop. Michigan is probably without their best ballhandler. Some experimentation with Point Franz resulted in several impressive buckets but also six turnovers against Nebraska, a significantly worse team than Rutgers. Eli Brooks hasn't always been strong on the ball when pressured this season, while David DeJulius is still learning how to pick his spots. These guys can't give up possessions with sloppy takes to the basket; they need to play smart and be strong on the ball.

Make some f***ing shots. Rutgers is going to allow plenty of three-point looks as a tradeoff for the above. I'd really like to put up a basketball post soon that doesn't include the "argh make a shot" tag.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Rutgers by 1.

NEVER SELL A CONFERENCE HOME GAME AGAIN, THANKS IN ADVANCE.