THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#26 Michigan (13-9, 7-5 Big Ten) vs #21 Ohio State (14-6, 7-4 Big Ten)	[Bryan Fuller]
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	6 PM Saturday
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -2 Torvik: M -4
TELEVISION	ESPN

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan looks to sustain momentum after a massive home win against Purdue that sees them shoot up to a 7 seed in Bart Torvik's projected field. That is based on the assumption that Michigan is approximately a top 25 team, though, and Michigan has to continue playing like that if they want that projection to actually become reality.

They'll get another home game against a good opponent to test out the new optimism. Ohio State is solidly in the field, and like both Purdue and Michigan is a team with a top-20 offense and defense nearing triple digits. If we were to Scooby Doo mask reveal every coach in the league, would they all be Fran McCaffrey? Who's to say, but I call dibs on ripping off Izzo's jowls.

Uh… anyway. OSU has a narrow win over the Seton Hall team Michigan lost to narrowly, a win over Duke, and nonconference losses to Xavier and Florida. In conference they've won at home against Wisconsin but have no other quality wins; they've lost to IU, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Rutgers on the road. A solid, but uninspiring tourney resume.

Should be noted that Ohio State is doing this without Seth Towns and Justice Sueing, who have been injured the whole year. Wing Eugene Brown has also missed a lot of time. Holtmann remains an impressive coach.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Dickinson got his crown back.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Ahrens has started most of the season but Johnson got the last three games.

THE THEM

sure just put X in all the pictures [Campredon]

The Ohio State frontcourt will be familiar. EJ Liddell flirted with the NBA but returned when he discovered relatively limited interest for his services.

Liddell remains a sweet-shooting 6'7" guy who is a problem on both ends—for the opponent on offense and for his team on defense. Liddell is a true inside-out threat who's 84th percentile in the post and 94th percentile spotting up. This adds up to 57/41 shooting on top 50 usage, a ton of free throws, and and assist rate above 20. He's third in the KPOY rankings, and since those rankings incorporate a team factor that's tough to do from the spot OSU occupies.

Liddell also blocks an inordinate number of shots and is an excellent offensive rebounder. Defensively he's in the high teens, which isn't great for a guy his size.

Zed Key starts next to Liddell and is basically the same shape, but spiritually he's the five since his game is all banging down low.

He picks up the usual background radiation of possessions used on OREBs, cuts, and as a roll man but the vast majority of shots he initiates with the ball in his hands are post-ups. Synergy has him for one spot-up on the year. He's a big, burly, clever guy without a ton of lift or size: you can file him in the Nick Ward/Derrick Nix category of thicc, slightly outmoded bigs.

Key is an excellent rebounder on both ends and chips in some blocks. He is not much of a threat to pass out; once he sets his mind to it he's going up with the ball. He's also weak at the free throw line, with a 57% career mark.

A glance at Key's performances this year does seem to indicate there's a level of opposing big he can't do much against. He was 0/2 from the floor against Trayce Jackson-Davis and did not get a shot up in 12 minutes against Purdue—and he picked up four fouls in those 12 minutes. John Harrar, who's no one's idea of a dominant big, held him to 6-15 shooting in two games. He's beat up on Northwestern, Wisconsin (which does have a seven-footer, but a bad one: Steven Crowl is 35th percentile defending the post), Minnesota, and a freefalling Maryland team. He was 1/3 in 12 minutes against Dickinson last year.

OSU runs a three guard lineup without a true small forward. Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler is the most familiar of those three guys. At PSU he was a low-usage defensive ace with a bunch of steals and pretty hideous offensive numbers. At OSU he's gone from 42% to 65% inside the line, largely on the back of a reduction in transition shots, which Wheeler was atrocious at last year, and shockingly efficient PNR play. Once you include passes out, he's 91st percentile. He's still stuck at 14 percent usage, which says something about something.

Wheeler still has double the PNR initiations of anyone else on the roster; this is not a team that relies heavily on it.

Freshman Malaki Branham is a 6'5" five star who's hit the ground running with 45/44/81 shooting. He gets most of his own twos and shoots a ton of midrange jumpers off the dribble. These aren't great shots (0.86 PPP) in and of themselves, but since he can get those whenever he wants and has a low turnover rate they provide an excellent worst-case scenario for an OSU possession.

You are probably thinking "oh no" given Michigan's results against prolific pull-up guys this season, and yeah: oh no.

Branham's a prolific three point shooter but has an even-bigger-than-Houstan split between guarded and unguarded jumpers, so if you can get in his face he will not Chaundee Brown at you.

Finally, Meechie Johnson came in mid-year last year because OSU was shorthanded and has been thrust into a large role with the Buckeye's injury issues. With one exception this has not gone well. Johnson is shooting 27% from two—16% in Big Ten play—and has a TO rate of 25. The thing he has done is shoot: he's at 37% from three on the year. Johnson has not hit a three off the dribble this year and is 2/11 on all other attempts, so if you keep him from doing anything other than taking catch and shoot three you're probably good.

The Ohio State bench:

• Kyle Young gets about 20 MPG backing up Key and Lidell. He is an opportunistic scorer who thrives on putbacks, transition, and cuts. He does have some shooting ability even out to three and can go on the block and score, but he's middling at best at both those things. As a finisher he's top notch.
• Justin Ahrens remains the conference's most extreme Just A Shooter. He's attempted a total of four shots inside the arc this year. He's shooting 36% on threes. Ahrens started much of the year but went to the bench three games ago because he's been scuffling in Big Ten play. When you're just a shooter and you're hitting 30% from deep it's tough to justify you as a starter.
• Wing Eugene Brown has missed the last two games with a toe issue—and missed four early in the season. He's questionable for tomorrow. His statistical record is very thin but he's more of a slasher than a shooter.
• Louisiana transfer Cedric Russell gets about 10 MPG and is Just A Shooter hitting 43%. He was 40% on heavy volume a year ago.
• Old friend Joey Brunk continues his college basketball odyssey; he gets a few minutes a game to maybe score and be horrible on defense.

THE TEMPO FREE

This will look familiar:

Michigan's better at rebounding and worse at shooting but the general shape of these teams is pretty similar. OSU runs one of the contry's most deliberate offenses (309th in tempo) and shoots well both inside and out. In conference play they're launching a ton of threes—they are in fact more reliant on threes for their scoring than anyone else in the league.

THE KEYS

a picture worthy of an All-American [Campredon]

Always Dickinson. Dude is on fire. He now leads Michigan with 41% three point shooting, is at 60% from two, and his suddenly rampant shooting opened things up for Diabate in the last game. In this one he seems to have a friendly matchup at both ends as long as Key can't put an early foul on him. Superhero mode engage.

Can Moussa Diabate check Lidell? Diabate had a big bounce-back game against Purdue, particularly on the defensive end where he's too often been a hypothetically good player instead of an actually good one. His performance here will be crucial since it seems to make sense to put Dickinson on the post guy and let Diabate chase Lidell around the perimeter. Diabate's length will go a long way towards dissuading threes, but can he hold up on the block? It is unknown.

Juwan time. Michigan carved up Purdue with a ton of actions that exploited their defensive issues.

Class with Professor Howard

Michigan running Chest action with HD setting another ballscreen for DJ afterwards.

Gillis + Williams both with a passive show, and Moussa dives at the perfect time while both corner shooters lift to clear out the paint for Diabate.

Grade = A+ pic.twitter.com/ffgU3dAujy

— LAbound (@LAbound2) February 11, 2022

This is a tight turnaround without a whole lot of prep time but this is another defense with some clear issues that might have to rotate and give Michigan looks—Dickinson threes, Diabate cuts—that they chewed up Purdue with.

Ack, death by midrange. The news here is slightly more encouraging than it was a few games ago. Michigan's clawed up to 11th percentile at defending off the dribble jumpers and they're up to ~6th on all two-point jumpers. This is up from ~1 in both cases. OSU has one prolific midrange bucket acquirer who Michigan probably can't do much to stop since options for Branham are one of Michigan's guards, Caleb Houstan, or another 2-3 zone outing against a team that shoots the three well.

Notably, Michigan's version of the 2-3 collapses into matchup man-to-man as soon as the ball goes into the high post, so maybe it's a way Michigan can have the best of both worlds.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.