THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#19 Michigan (11-4, 2-2 Big Ten) at #39 Minnesota (8-7, 2-3)	hello i watched you sleep last night
WHERE	Williams Arena Minneapolis, Minnesota
WHEN	1:00 pm Eastern Sunday, January 12th
THE LINE	Minnesota -1 (KenPom) Minnesota -3.3 (Torvik)
TELEVISION	BTN

MICHIGAN NIGHT AT THE PISTONS GAME

The Pistons and U-M have once again partnered for a Michigan night:

The Detroit Pistons and University of Michigan have partnered to provide you a package that includes a game ticket, an exclusive U of M/Detroit Pistons ball cap, and a donation to the University's Managers and Athletic Trainers Scholarship.

All 100-level ticket buyers will be entered in a raffle to win an item from a former Wolverine in the NBA! (John Beilein, Trey Burke, Caris LeVert, Moritz Wagner, Jordan Poole, Glenn Robinson III, DJ Wilson)

After the game you are invited to a meet & greet with former Wolverine football player and All-American Jarrett Irons as well.

The game is tomorrow night at 7 pm; the opponent, for those curious, is the Chicago Bulls. Seth tells me about 30 readers have already purchased their tickets, so you'll have a chance to meet some of your fellow mgobloggers, as well. Hit the link!

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Despite Isaiah Livers seeming optimistic about his health during an in-game interview last night, I'd be surprised to see him rejoin the lineup with this quick a turnaround between games.

Michigan's victory over Purdue put them at 2-2 in the Big Ten, which—as of Thursday's games—has them in a five-way tie for fifth place in the conference behind MSU (5-0), Maryland (3-1), Rut--

[checks notes]
[checks eyesight]
[checks notes again]
[checks for falling space objects]

--Rutgers (3-1), and Illinois (3-2). Minnesota is a half-game behind at 2-3. In a crowded field, this is a great opportunity for Michigan to notch a hard-earned conference road win and get some distance on one of their competitors for tournament seeding. There won't be a return game in Ann Arbor, either.

While it's admittedly early for bracket-watching, this is also an opportunity to make a move back up the NCAA projections. Bart Torvik's projections currently have Michigan closer to a six-seed than a five-seed; he also has this game projected as a loss, so a win would likely move them up the bracket.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

While Minnesota is only 8-7 to start the season, all of their losses have come against top-100 competition, including the likes of Butler and MSU (and also #98 Utah). Therefore, they're one of 12 Big Ten teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations, but they desperately need to start piling up quality wins; their best victories so far outside of a home win over Ohio State have been against #54 Oklahoma State, albeit in a blowout, and #93 Clemson. Beating Northwestern by nine at home is the fourth-best win on the resumé. This is a golden opportunity for Richard Pitino's squad, too.

No matter how Michigan approaches post defense, get ready for a lot of this:

with some changes in the supporting cast [Campredon]

Center Daniel Oturu is in the midst of a sophomore breakout campaign. He's the rare 6'10", 240-pounder who can play 33 minutes per game while being a go-to option on offense and an intimidating presence on defense while rarely getting into foul trouble. He hits 66% of his twos, ranks around the top 50 in rebounding rate on both ends of the court, and is 40th nationally in block rate.

While Oturu gets his share of junk buckets, he also creates his own offense; he ranks in the 86th percentile on post-up possessions, per Synergy, making 28/47 (59.6%) on those attempts. His main bugaboo is turnovers; given Juwan Howard was already considering some more post doubles in the wake of Trevion Williams's explosion last night, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Oturu get some extra attention.

The other primary offensive option is lead guard Marcus Carr, a sophomore transfer from Pitt who's a good distributor and, depending on when you watch him, a remarkable shot-maker. He takes a ton of difficult shots, though, and doesn't have the finishing ability to be very effective in the halfcourt, so you get an ugly shot chart:

He's also very right-handed when he goes to the basket, which could be trouble if Zavier Simpson has downloaded his scouting report. Carr is most efficient when he gets to the line; given how poor a finisher he is, staying vertical without necessarily going for blocks should be sufficient.

Shooting guard Gabe Kalscheur was a preseason sophomore breakout candidate himself, but the increase in usage from his freshman year has come with a corresponding dip in efficiency, and he hasn't expanded his game much beyond the Just A Shooter™ repertoire even though he flashes the potential for more. He takes about 2/3rds of his shots behind the arc and makes 36% of them; Minnesota likes to get him moving off the ball to hunt for spot-up looks.

Third guard Payton Willis also takes the vast majority of his shots from downtown, where he's a 35% shooter. The Vanderbilt transfer can keep the ball moving but doesn't venture inside the arc much at all; he's taken 28 twos and seven free throws this season. Willis splits a relatively even share of time with freshman Tre' Williams, a more physical player who's still finding his footing on this level; Williams is making 23% of his twos and 30% of his threes with a 25% turnover rate. Williams grades out as Minnesota's best defender, however, while Willis is their worst, according to Synergy.

Starting power forward Alihan Demir is a Drexel grad-transfer who's gone from a high-usage paint presence with some stretch to his game and a guard-level assist rate to a tertiary option making 44% of his twos and 37% of his occasional three-point attempts.

Pitino is keeping a particularly tight rotation this year; Minnesota is 320th in bench minutes, and only some of that is due to Oturu's ability to stay on the floor longer than most big men. The only reserves to see anything close to significant time other than Williams fall under the "nearly invisible" category on KenPom. 6'6", 235-pound sophomore Jarvis Omersa is an energy guy who hits the offensive glass and does a solid job defending taller big men. 6'7" senior Michael Hurt almost never shoots, though he's got a functional three-pointer, and turns the ball over on a third of his possessions. Pitino is also not a proponent of autobench; Minnesota is 13th in the country in two-foul participation at 50.3%, per KenPom.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Minnesota's offense ranks just four spots behind Michigan's overall, but they get there in a very different fashion. They're heavily reliant on offensive rebounds. They have the profile of a team that likes to get you to collapse into the paint to open up shooters; 61% of their field goals are assisted (20th nationally) and 42% of their attempts come from beyond the arc (82nd). 

They do the opposite on defense. Oturu's presence in the paint lets the Gophers stay home on the perimeter, so opponents take only 30% of their shots from long distance. They've only been tenth in the conference on defense so far, however, because their Big Ten opponents are bombing in threes at a 40% clip and pulling down almost 32% of their missed shots. They're allowing an obscene number of assisted baskets. Based on the numbers, it looks like Oturu may be hunting too many blocks at the expense of rebounding.

THE KEYS

Selective help. I haven't hated Juwan Howard's general philosophy of leaving Jon Teske one-on-one against post threats. It made more sense against Iowa's Luka Garza, who's surrounded by quality shooters, than Purdue's Trevion Willims, who's, well, not. Still, Michigan suppressed three-point attempts and secondary scoring to the point that the Wolverines survived remarkable scoring outbursts from both of those players, and they generally had to work for their points.

That said, it's probably time to give Teske a little help, especially for the second tough matchup in four days. Oturu is a handful down low but he's not much of a passer and he's prone to turning it over; Minnesota is going to have a tough time fielding a lineup that doesn't feature a non-shooter Michigan can help off. Even if Howard doesn't want to commit to hard double-teams, a quick dig on the catch before recovering to the perimeter could force some turnovers and cause Oturu to have trouble settling in—there were a few too many moments last night when it felt like Williams had all evening to plan and execute his attack.

Make some threes, please. Michigan's ongoing three-point drought can't solely be attributed to the absence of Isaiah Livers; there are a lot of good looks not going down of late. Minnesota isn't necessarily going to allow a lot of opportunities, but Big Ten teams have been able to get good looks on the Gophers when they're available. It's really tough to score inside on Minnesota without some timely offensive rebounding, which isn't Michigan's forte unless Brandon Johns is locked in. Hitting even a somewhat reasonable percentage of their three-pointers would take a lot of pressure off Zavier Simpson to put the team on his back, even if he showed he's plenty capable down the stretch against Purdue—Oturu is a much, much better rim protector than Williams.

Force Carr to carry them. This should be a good game for Michigan's normal drop pick-and-roll coverage. That coverage, first and foremost, makes it difficult to hit the rolling big man, and finding Oturu on the roll has been much more efficient for Minnesota than having Carr finish the possession. Carr is more than willing to do just that, however, and chasing him over screens could force him into a series of low-upside midrangers. Even if he hits a few, that's a tradeoff Michigan will take, especially since it keeps help defenders home on shooters. A possession that ends with Carr taking a midrange shot or contested look in the paint is a win.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Minnesota by 1.

The need for Michigan to make their three-pointers in a conference road game without Isaiah Livers is rather foreboding.