THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Herky tries the X-hook [via]

Author's Note: My apologies for the brevity of the preview. I've been dealing with an allergic reaction that caused my lip to all but turn inside out. I'm writing this while sleep-deprived and pinning an icepack between my face and my knee.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

For the first time, we get to see how Juwan Howard's squad reacts to a loss. Michigan has settled into what should be its rotation for the foreseeable future; Franz Wagner has taken Adrien Nunez's minutes and then some in addition to his starting spot, and the team generally goes eight-deep with David DeJulius, Colin Castleton, and Brandon Johns as the primary bench options.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Iowa travels to Ann Arbor after a comfortable B1G/ACC Challenge victory over a struggling Syracuse squad. They're 2-2 against legit competition, also beating #29 Texas Tech on a neutral floor while losing to #50 DePaul and #25 San Diego State by double digits.

The Hawkeyes aren't exactly healthy. Point guard Jordan Bohannon hasn't been nearly as effective as years past after offseason hip surgery. While he's starting as of the last few games, he's staying almost exclusively outside the arc, which has limited both his scoring and his passing. Meanwhile, starting power forward Jack Nunge is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered prior to the last few games.

Starting shooting guard CJ Fredrick and backup big Cordell Pemsl missed the Syracuse game with quad and back injuries, respectively, and are questionable for tonight. Patrick McCaffrey, Fran's son and an expected immediate contributor, hasn't played in the last six games while dealing with "residual health issues" stemming from his successful battle with thyroid cancer in high school.

So that's not ideal. Iowa has, however, seen improved production from already productive center Luka Garza, who's shooting 58% inside the arc and 50% beyond it with high usage, scarce turnovers, and strong rebounding. Garza still isn't anyone's idea of a good defensive center, but he's an offensive force, and his ability to pop out and hit the outside shot is a strong counter to Michigan's default drop coverage in pick-and-roll situations.

The other main player to watch is sophomore wing Joe Wieskamp, a site favorite who's off to a slow start. An uptick in usage has seen Wieskamp's efficiency fall across the board. After posting a 60.4 eFG% last year, he's at an ugly 48.7% this season; he's also drawing fewer fouls and turning the ball over more often. Wieskamp is a dangerous shooter/slasher when he's on his game; that hasn't been the case so far.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

Surprise! Iowa has a top-ten offense and a defense that ranks outside the top 100. They're a good shooting team that doesn't turn the ball over, grabs a good share of their misses, and gets to the line frequently. The offense is heavily predicated on assisted shots, which means Michigan can slow them down considerably if they play sound defense and force the Hawkeyes into one-on-one situations.

Iowa's defense isn't awful in any one area. They're also not particularly good at anything outside of avoiding fouls.

THE KEYS

The Garza/Teske matchup. The game's most intriguing matchup is at center, where Jon Teske will have to deal with a legitimate stretch five who's got skill in the post, while Garza must attempt to slow Teske on the other end when defense is not his strength. I'll be curious to see if Michigan switches up their pick-and-roll coverage to keep Garza from shooting open threes; they've shown some changeups and this would be the time to bring them out, especially if Bohannon—not a threat to do much other than pull up right now—is the ballhandler.

Patience. While Michigan has generally been good at controlling their tempo and shot selection, they could use to be extra picky against this Iowa squad. If there's not a very good look early, reset and run the offense—eventually, something is going to open up. This is a very Fran McCaffrey defense.

Defend the glass. The main way I could see Iowa keeping up is if they manage to significantly outrebound Michigan. Even without Nunge, they've got plenty of size; both Garza and Ryan Kriener, who's stepped in at the four for Nunge, are very good offensive rebounders. Kreiner is 6'10", 255, so Michigan is going to be dealing with a size disadvantage at the four. Sound positional defense and boxing out will be critical.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

I like just about any matchup in which the opponent's top scorer must face Jon Teske. This is such a matchup.