Previously: Part One

Ace-

I'm sure you're gonna get a ton of questions about the team, and transition, etc, but I wanted to ask about the women's team.  Specifically, what, if anything, the university does to promote them, or more importantly, what you think they should do to promote the women's basketball team.  They're a ton of fun to watch, but they mostly play in front of nobody.  Is that simply because Michigan (state of) isn't a women's sports state?  Anyway, it's frustrating to be the so-called "leaders and best", have a good women's team, and have them get zero pub or recognition from our own community.

Thanks-
Jason

Given the program's recent success under Kim Barnes Arico, it's been disappointing not to see the women's team get more attention—and I'll admit up front to being part of the problem, since I tend to keep my coverage focused solely on the men's team. I don't believe I'm influential enough to swing attendance numbers for an entire program, however, so let's examine the question further.

I wouldn't say the state of Michigan can't support women's sports; the softball program stands as testament to the contrary. Local support for basketball in general, however, has been tough to attain; I keep yelling for the athletic to make Crisler general admission so the lower bowl can be full for men's games, and they've made two national title games in the last decade. But the women have been quite successful themselves, particularly in contrast to previous eras; KBA's squads have won at least 20 games in each of her eight seasons, have made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament two seasons in a row, won the NIT the previous year when they were snubbed, and have spent much of this season ranked.

There has been an increase in attendance, though numbers are still not exactly high. Average attendance for Michigan women's games in 2011-12, the season before KBA arrived, was 1773. That jumped to 2009 in her first season, then up to 2672 (45th nationally) in 2016-17, and 3558 (34th) last season. Still, Crisler has a capacity of over 13 thousand. There's a lot of room for growth.

While the women's game has seen an increase in exposure in recent years, it's still given second-class treatment far too often. Even when Michigan's women get on national television this year, they've been overshadowed—and overlapped—by the men:

third straight time!! even with "flex" starting times for nationally televised games it seems so easy to avoid this. they're doing the women dirty by taking three of their BEST matchups and ensuring almost no one will watch them https://t.co/j6esbxtQWi

— Aria Gerson (@aria_gerson) January 12, 2020

Unless you were in Crisler, you probably missed the women's rivalry win over MSU a couple weekends ago because the men's rivalry game at MSU tipped off well before it was over. This is easily avoidable if anyone cared to avoid it; the conference shouldn't be allowing it to happen, the TV networks should give enough of a shit to realize they're losing viewers by forcing fans to choose, and the athletic department should be making a huge stink about it. I haven't seen much movement on any of those fronts.

It's hard to draw fans these days without exposure, which largely comes through television, and making a team easy to follow, which... largely comes through television. A lot of the women's games are only available through subscription-only streaming services like BTN+ and ESPN+. Unfortunately, CBS doesn't care if they're giving ESPN2 a hit in viewership, for example, so we've seen the men's team get scheduled over the women's team far too often when the latter get an all-too-rare prime spot on a readily available channel.

That makes it harder for fans and also harder to cover the team; the Daily is pretty much the only outlet with a dedicated women's basketball beat—and almost certainly the only one with more than one writer—while other outlets are spread thin covering football and the men's team. When it's hard to track the team, it's hard to spark new fandom; you can't even find team stats, player stats, or player bios on ESPN's team page, and they have rights to more women's basketball than anyone.

There are other issues, including a program history of mediocrity and less visible marketing than the men's team, at least from what I've seen. Fixing the stuff above seems easy and impactful, though; a big reason the softball team has picked up so many followers that a lot of people saw them on ESPN over years of deep runs in the postseason. I don't think the women need to be a nationally competitive program on the level of the softball team to draw more eyeballs; not having to directly compete for them with the men's team would be a nice start.

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[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

Eli Brooks is having a tough time getting quality looks. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Are there any stats that suggest why Brooks has been struggling lately after a hot start beyond just "not hitting shots"?  I think one of the keys is for Brooks, DDJ, and Wagner to score and that's been erratic lately.  

AC1997

I'm worried the main issue with Eli Brooks is that the hot start was an anomaly and he's mostly the player he's always been. When you cut down his numbers to include Tier A opponents (top-50 overall, adjusted for venue, via KenPom), it's clear he's been overwhelmed against tougher competition:

When Brooks isn't knocking down threes, he's not adding much to the offense, and he's only made 26% of his 61 career three-point attempts against Tier A opponents with an overall career mark that isn't too much better at 33%.

Against all opponents, he's taken more than twice as many shots from two-point range away from the rim than at the rim. His lack of size and explosive athleticism prevents him from getting to the hoop, particularly against better teams, and he doesn't have a killer midrange game to make up for it. According to Synergy, Brooks is 3-for-16 on jump shots inside of 17 feet (note: that doesn't include layups/dunks).

It'd be easier to weather his shooting struggles if he displayed advanced playmaking ability; he hasn't shown that. He's a limited offensive player; almost all of his work comes on spot-ups, shots off cuts/screens, and in transition; he's not a great pick-and-roll ballhandler and he's had one isolation possession all season. Teams that can defend Michigan's initial sets and stick to shooters can shut Brooks down.

Brooks is still a strong defender. Once Livers is back, though, that becomes less valuable to this team, and the gap in offensive ability between David DeJulius and Brooks could be more than enough for a switch in the starting lineup, or a least a significant redistribution of minutes. DDJ hasn't just been a better shooter and overall scorer; he's also starting to create for others in ball screen situations while keeping his turnovers low. With or without Livers, Michigan could really use a secondary creator to lessen the burden on Zavier Simpson.

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DDJ is a little bit of defense away from a starting spot. [Campredon]

Hey there Ace,

For the last handful of games I’ve been paying close attention to the top areas of improvement each player has, and trying to see if progress is being made in season. The main ones I’m watching are DDJ’s screen usage (especially how tight to the screen he stays), Franz’ strength when driving, and Brandon’s touch in the paint. Two part question - do you agree with those three being the top areas to improve for those players? And what would you look for in the other returners like Eli, Colin, Cole?

Alright, let's do this.

Franz Wagner: functional strength. I agree with the person asking the question. Right now, Wagner is primarily a spot-up shooter, and a lot of his forays to the rim don't quite get all the way there. He's still finishing at an acceptable rate because he knows how to use his length and footwork; he'd be a lot more dangerous if he could bully smaller defenders to the rim. A full year in Jon Sanderson's weight room should help considerably and have the added benefit of making Wagner a more viable option defending opposing fours.

David DeJulius: pick-and-roll passing. While DDJ has improved of late in this area, there's plenty of ground to cover as a passer in the screen game. DDJ ranks in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when he shoots; when he passes, he ranks in the 43rd percentile. He's had particular trouble putting the roll man in position to score. That should improve as he gets more used to running the P&R and also gets more offseason work with the big men once Zavier Simpson isn't dominating the ball.

Eli Brooks: midrange game. If Brooks is going to hold onto a major role, he's going to need to become a bigger threat inside the paint against good teams, and that probably isn't going to come from Simpson-like finishing at the rim. Instead, Brooks needs to develop a more reliable floater and get better at pulling up for short jumpers. Also, there's the obvious: hit your threes, please.

Brandon Johns: outside shooting/confidence. To keep proper spacing when Johns is playing the four, Michigan needs him to be a more willing three-point shooter, as detailed in an earlier post. He has a decent stroke when he wants to shoot the ball; too often, he either passes up good looks, isn't in position for them in the first place, or hesitates on the catch and ruins his rhythm. He shouldn't be a sub-30% three-point shooter.

Colin Castleton: functional strength/rebounding. Castleton badly needs another offseason in the weight room. It's impacting every area of his game. He can finish against undersized centers, but as soon as he goes up against Big Ten beef, he has trouble getting close to the basket and turns the ball over far too often. He hasn't been able to protect the rim. He's really struggling to rebound. While some of this is technique and awareness, a lot of it has to do with the fact he's being outmuscled.

Adrien Nunez: defense. If Nunez can't move his feet better, he's going to have a hard time sticking to even a fringe spot on the rotation. There's little need to elaborate.

Cole Bajema: defense. The only thing I can imagine keeping Bajema from taking Nunez's minutes is that, at least for the moment, he's not a significant defensive upgrade. While that's not the most promising sign, we've got to remember the expectations when the season began: a possible redshirt because he's still a stick figure. He's flashed his scoring ability in garbage time. Hit the weight room, drill down the fundamentals, and Bajema can carve out a role, perhaps before this season is out.

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​Steve Pikiell is rapidly moving up these rankings. [Bryan Fuller]

Inspired by a brief discussion in a recent MGoPod, what's your ranking of all current B1G MBB coaches? I'm thinking in terms of who you would most like to have as UM's coach, but whatever lens you want to explore.

1. Painter
2. ...

Best,
Mike

It gets too fraught to rank the coaches by fit at Michigan, so I'm simply going to do a ranking of who I believe is the best coach. My only promise is that I'm going to regret this.

1. Tom Izzo — The on-court results speak for themselves. The guy's been to eight Final Fours and won nine Big Ten regular season titles. He wouldn't be my choice as Michigan's head coach for off-court reasons; that's never going to come up except in these hypotheticals.
2. Matt Painter — Keeps putting out excellent teams while showing a remarkable ability to adapt to his personnel. Excellent talent identifier; it's hard to recruit at an elite level at Purdue but he finds and develops NBA-level players.
3. Chris Holtmann — Even with Ohio State's recent dip, made a big splash sooner than anyone expected when he arrived in Columbus, and his track record is excellent.
4. Fred Hoiberg — This is obviously based on his time at Iowa State. When he gets his guys in place, Nebraska is going to be interesting; Hoiberg had four straight top-30 KenPom finishes to end his tenure in Ames.
5. Juwan Howard — The most likely coach to move up and crack an excellent top three. While the jury is still out on his in-game coaching, he's weathered injuries to get off to a solid start on the court, and he's recruiting as well as anyone could've hoped off of it.
6. Steve Pikiell — Rutgers is tied for second in the Big Ten after their leading scorer and rebounder unexpectedly transferred in the offseason. If anything, I've underrated him.
7. Mark Turgeon — It's getting really tough to separate coaches at this point. Turgeon isn't great as an in-game strategist, but he consistently fields very talented teams, and recruiting is part of coaching too. The Terps are currently rolling out a top-ten defense. Has a "so hated on he got underrated" vibe, though that can turn quickly.
8. Brad Underwood — It's tempting to move Underwood up. His offense is decent despite having terrible outside shooting, which shouldn't work well with Underwood's system—remember the Oklahoma State tournament game? Meanwhile, he totally overhauled a defensive system that allowed way too many easy buckets in an effort to create chaos; they currently boast the B1G's second-stingiest defense after finishing 11th last year.
9. Fran McCaffrey — Frustrates the hell out of me. Consistently puts brilliant offensive teams out there but cannot get them to play half-decent defense. As with John Beilein, it's clearly a coaching issue; unlike Beilein, McCaffrey hasn't made the necessary changes to his staff and approach to fix it.
10. Greg Gard — They've had a resurgence with Micah Potter becoming eligible this semester and Kobe King breaking out as a scorer. I'm still waiting for the wheels to fall off in a post-Ryan, post-Happ world. Brutal stretch of the schedule coming up could expose them.
11. Patrick Chambers — Yes, they're flirting with an NCAA tournament bid, but we've heard that before with Chambers teams and they've always disappointed down the stretch. His offenses are ugly when they can't get out in transition.
12. Richard Pitino — Maybe dinged a spot or two for nepotism and his face. Still, Pitino has failed to finish a season with 17 spots on KenPom of the #20 finish that got Tubby Smith fired. The Gophers always seem to play below their talent level.
13. Archie Miller — His success at Dayton has not carried over and Indiana fans are getting impatient. Watching his teams, I can't blame them.
14. Chris Collins — At least Miller had previous success and hasn't forced a scholarship player off the team by attempting to turn him into the team janitor. Collins has failed in every aspect as a head coach.

I already regret this.