Dear Diary Demands You Watch More Trey

Submitted by Seth on March 20th, 2015 at 3:09 PM

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Five Star Characters. Vincent Smith's event happened. In a Q&A Smith shared his favorite block ever was getting concussed by J.J. Watt, and led us to believe for about a minute he was going to make comparisons between Rodriguez and Hoke. Sometime after Brian left to catch a bunch of highly padded MSU students stand lazily in front of a net and get a hundred pucks shot at them, a bunch of former and current players showed up: Willie Henry, Thomas Rawls, Justice Hayes, Al Backey, Christian Bryant, and Floyd Simmons, with whom I shared the Never Forget banner. Campbell was a hit. The shot above is Big Will making a show of excitement over Thomas "Jimmy" Rawls. Then he acquired a newborn, because every iphone collection needs a giant teddy bear in a casquette holding a baby.

More importantly Vince and Will and the rest helped raise several thousand to go toward a new community garden in Flint.

You Might Remind Us Of Such Former Players as…From the diarist who brought you "I wonder if Ole Miss is doing something different" and "20 years without good basketball" comes the latest in postseason player analysis approach technology, as AC1997 reviews the 2014-'15 cagers by which former Michigan guy they ought to watch on YouTube. Sample for the biggest X factor next year:

Derrick Walton

  • FMPHSWOYT:  Trey Burke
  • Clips: 2012-2013 Highlights, 2011-2012 Highlights
  • Explanation: Again with the all-time great, but there’s a specific reason.  As much as Burke was our best player in ages, he actually struggled at times as a freshman with running the ball screen offense in part due to his size.  I think that was what we hoped to see Walton adjust to as a sophomore but he struggled in some of the similar ways that Burke did (height, explosiveness, inconsistent big men, etc.).  Watching how Burke adapted and ran a masterful offense as he became a sophomore is what Walton should look at – with realistic expectations obviously being far short of POY results.  
  • Also Considered: Daniel Horton, Gary Grant, Demetrius Calip

It's kinda like "YMRMFSPA" in the recruit previews. The usefulness is limited since we're restricted to a small sample size of Michigan players people other than Craig Ross remembers. Burke comparisons for Walton are bountiful, and still unfair. Trey came in a scorer who liked going to the rim, and became an excellent distributor (and Kobe Assist-er) as a natural extension of his ability to attack the basket more so than mastery of the two-guard offense. Watch where these assists come from:

Also the subs we had. That was so crazy you guys.

Walton came in better at distribution and I think with a leap forward from his scoring game that'll really shine. His handle is fantastic but that toe kept him from being able to attack the lane; the same second he would have to stop and make a pass is when the shooting pain would hit.

A penny for a shot at a twenty. The other diary this week was Lanknows arguing with me about burned redshirts. After much discussion I declare points 1, 2, 3, 8, and 11 ancillary considerations that shouldn't affect the decision except in extreme situations, and all the other points wholly incorrect, and he conceded that it's okay to redshirt quarterbacks and offensive linemen if you don't need them. There's no need to go in there if you're planning to call his stupid points stupid—MaizeandBlueWahoo has the official fisk in the thread—but I'm all for attempts to pick holes in my arguments.

Best of the Board

MGOMEMES

Offseason threads are a good opportunity to catch up the newcomers and remind ourselves of things like Fck Lyons and Tacopants and the pain Alan Branch leaves in his wake.

Still needs a lot of filling in.

RULES FOR WEARING A JERSEY

Same guy who started the above thread also asked whether adults should be wearing team jerseys, which, and when. I have given this a lot of thought over years of mainstream sports fandom and have come up with a few personal tastes.

Everyone likes the kid who wears team gear, at least until high school demands a higher level of sophistication. For adults however I have created this handy formula: Take the number of times you thought the player is awesome while he's playing for your team, plus the number of times you expect you'll think the player is awesome in the future while playing for your team times 0.5. For college player also do this again for his pro career divided by 30. Divide the result by the number of people you will ever encounter who own that jersey. Then multiply by the percentage of people you expect to be around that day who are fans of that team, and subtract from this a percentage point for every year you've lived past 14. Add and subtract circumstantial percentage points as you choose.

The highest score on the Seth-o-Meter ever achieved was a guy who wore a Brookens jersey (and accompanying handlebar mustache) to Comerica Park before Tommy was re-hired by the Tigers. The lowest score ever was a 400-pound dude wearing a Yankees A-Rod jersey to a Mets game. The highest score at a Michigan game is:

tacopants-jersey_thumb

Your Moment of Zen:

vincesmithguns

Comments

MRJ2di

March 20th, 2015 at 4:10 PM ^

I don't wear jerseys, but...

If you should find ME wearing a jersey, and YOU believe that YOUR opinion on what I wear supercedes MY desire to wear something I have chosen to wear on MY person, I will wear an item YOU purchase (within reason; reasonableness decided unilaterally by me) in liue of MY jersey.

Archibald Meatpants

March 20th, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^

Not too good with math so please help.  I just bought a bitchin' Harbaugh jersey to wear to games.

A) Can I wear it to games?

B) If so, do I have to wait until I get in the stadium to put it on?

Please help keep me from making a social faux pas.

UMgradMSUdad

March 20th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

Seth, is it something to worry about that you and Lanknows each probably spent ten times as much time and effort thinking and talking about redshirting than any coaching staff ever has?  I did enjoy the discussion and back and forth though.

schreibee

March 21st, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^

I'm glad you brought up the Lankows debate again here Seth because I got around to it too late to post any comments - much as I may have here?!

In this post you mention in passing that he excluded OL & QB from his "no redshirt" argument. But in refuting him and listing players who gave Michigan great value from their 5th year on the team you listed around 70% OL and numerous QBs. And not just once either, you did it a few times.

If the suggestion to forego redshirts in the interest of cycling more players through the program is that poor, you shouldn't need to ignore it's central caveat to make your points. Amirite?
Also at no point I recall did you or Wahoo attempt to refute the math that redshirting causes you to use 2 scholarship years to get 1 year of potential productivity from a player, therefore limiting the opportunity to get more players on the team every 5-year cycle.

After reading all the arguments for and against I actually came away agreeing with using any frosh who'd earned a place on the 2-deep and stashing the rest. Which is basically what Hoke did. ..he just didn't use them effectively or develop them well. Therefore - HARBAUGH!

Seth

March 21st, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^

He relented on QBs and OL after I made that list.

We did refute the math. In fact we completely blew it up. The flaws in that argument we exposed are twofold:

1) 5th years are an option. So aftef four years:

  • REDSHIRTED: You can choose to take the 5th year player or the recruit
  • DID NOT REDSHIRT: You have to take a recruit

Cycling more players through the program just to cycle them defeats the point of having more players coming through the program: more options.

2) Most of the 85 scholarships are not seeing significant playing time in any given season, so you are not using guys you were already not using.

The whole point of redshirting is you are giving up a miniscule amount of productivity for a shot a high level of productivity and no downside. He tried to argue this by saying coaches will hold onto 5th years to be safe but I showed over the last 20 years Michigan under various coaches let enough 5th years go unrenewed that Harbaugh would have to be dramatically more loyal/conservative than Carr for this to be a concern.

schreibee

March 21st, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^

OK I honestly thought he'd included OL & QB in the original post. If it wasn't in there until the back & forth began I apologize and say good job showing him how virtually EVERY OL that ever stepped foot on a collegiate football field would benefit from a redshirt. Most QB too, really probably every player below superstar level would be bertter in a possible 5th year.

I'll stand by my conclusion though that if a freshman earns a spot on a REAL 2-deep (i.e. actually plays the position in meaningful snaps during games) they shoud be used.

I can't see how good they could possibly be 4 years away could be a better bet than them helping you now? Your betting 1 cent for a sure $20 hypothesis (if I have that part right?) was no better than his saying virtually all players should play as frosh, even a few snaps on special teams are beneficial.

Neither seemed very based in reality...

Seth

March 21st, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^

This part I agree with and always did:

if a freshman earns a spot on a REAL 2-deep (i.e. actually plays the position in meaningful snaps during games) they shoud be used.

I kept using Wilson as an example. Even though he only played about 12 snaps that would make it into a statistician's list of plays, he was 2nd on the depth chart at deep safety and was going to be starting most likely the following year. You have to play him, even though he's a guy you would probably get a better 5th year out of, because the team needed him playing.
 
You're missing the 1 cent $20 hypothesis entirely. It's 1 cent for, say, 55% chance at $20. It's from a mindfuck that gets passed around emails and the like where people are asked if they'd take $5 now or $50 in two years, but there's a 10% chance they won't remember to pay it (and you could die, etc.). Most people take the $5 but that is mathematically the wrong decision, because our brains are wired for instant gratification. The point is you're giving up a cent if Marvin Robinson rather than Dymonte Thomas is your punt and kickoff gunner for a season, and that's worth it for a 55% shot at a 5th year starting safety Dymonte Thomas.

schreibee

March 21st, 2015 at 6:40 PM ^

First of all - thanks for your thoughtful responses. I've been a "member" on here for over 5 years now but I'm pretty sure this is the most back & forth I've had with one of the actual paid staff (although you or maybe Ace threatened me with a banhammer once for being maybe too arch in a disagreement with TIMMAY).

I'm glad we came to a place where we agree on the proper usage of frosh - the Jarrod example is spot on. In other posts I thought you'd mentioned Bolden or Gedeon as guys who should've redshirted, but didn't they play essentially that same role if not greater?

And - don't you wish we had a better example to use than Dymonte vs Marvin?!

Two of the most hyped - and therefore to this point most disappointing - players to come to U of M in years. I guess it wouldn't be far off to call either of them the Defensive Shane? Well at least Dymonte and Shane have a chance to star still.

Marvin is one of the prime examples of why I don't like high-starz guys to commit too early... at least at Michigan it only leads to heartbreak. Grady, Mallett, Marvin, Pipkins, Dymonte, Shane - fair to say these are the highest rated guys to come to Michigan in the starz era? (barring Jabrill and last year was no kind of omen to disprove my fears!)

I'd love it if you (or they) would prove me wrong - again!

Seth

March 22nd, 2015 at 12:36 AM ^

My point on Bolden was he OR Ross could have redshirted. Gedeon absolutely could have since he was the 4th guy in a three-man rotation. Gedeon saw only a few snaps against Akron and though that game mattered, Gedeon's performance wasn't any better than we had out of the three starters. That was the year Morgan, Bolden and Ross were rotating in the MLB/WLB positions. They didn't need Gedeon to burn his redshirt.

The year before was a little different because Bolden was the early enrollee and most vocal guy on the unit, but Ross started passing him in late fall, and they made the decision to let them compete for the backup job behind Morgan. At the time and now I've been saying the same thing: redshirt ONE of those guys--whoever's behind at the last fall practice.

Dizzo

March 20th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^

Number of times you thought player is awesome while on team =  400.

Will be awesome on team times 0.5 = 730 * 0.5 = 365.

Awesome pro career = 10 years * 365 / 30 = 121.7

Result of addition (not specified?) divided by people wearing jersey = 886.7 / 20 = 44.3.

I live in Ann Arbor so multiplying 44.3 by 50% fans = 22.15.  

Subtract percentage for each year over 14 = 22 - 22.15 = DO NOT WEAR JERSEY

 

 

DAMN ...

ST3

March 20th, 2015 at 5:58 PM ^

My brother's fantasy baseball team name a few years ago was "Brookens Institute." Still one of my favorites (player and team name, just to be clear.)

AC1997

March 20th, 2015 at 7:59 PM ^

Seth - I'm curious if you would have used a different comparable for Walton to research this offseason.  Any suggestions? 

 

I chose Burke because of Walton's need to develop some of those skills that he was lacking.  I tried to acknowledge that it was a bit unfair in terms of expectations, but the types of things Burke improved upon were what Walton could use work with.  Nearly everyone in that piece is probably a 'reach' for the existing player with the exception perhaps of Doyle (Graham Brown) and Dawkins (GR3).  I was tempted to use Gary Grant since he was of similar size and a tenacious defender like Walton aspires to be without necessarily being the offensive player Burke was at this age. 

Seth

March 20th, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^

Isaiah Thomas. Not Isiah the Piston -- the one who was with Phoenix until recently. Shorter, great feel for the game and decent offensive abilities. But I'm not the hoops expert so I bet you other readers can come up with better.

schreibee

March 21st, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^

What?! How could any M fan NOT remember that?! I mean, even be a little fuzzy on the recollection?!

Honestly, priorities and all that, but... I have 0 doubt I'll forget my wife's name & kid's birthday before I forget what Trey did that night. AND Mitch while we're talking KU game and '13 tournament in general. And Nik vs Fla. ..and Spike & the Gotdommed refs vs Louisville. ..

EGD

March 21st, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^

The first pro baseball game I ever attended was Blue Jays vs. Tigers in 1985 at the corner. Lou Whitaker led off the bottom of the 1st with a triple, but I only know this because third base was the place he was standing after all the adults around me in the jam-packed stadium finally sat down. Anyway, about halfway through the game, Brookens winds up on second base and there must have been one out because the pitcher and shortstop were making a concerted effort to keep him honest. Well, at one point there is kind of a lull in the stadium noise and the shortstop creeps in behind Brookens, who is way off the bag. Next thing I know, my dad is yelling "watch out Brookens!!!" at the top of his lungs. A split second later, I see Brookens diving back to second as the pitcher whirls and fires a perfect throw to the shortstop. "Safe!" the umpire signals. To this day I still kind of wonder whether it was my dad who kept Brookens from getting picked-off second that night. (Not that it would have mattered; Trammell drove in Whitaker in the first inning to make it 1-0, and Walt Terrell thre a 2-hit shutout that game, so whatever happened with Brookens was inconsequential).