Battle 4 Atlantis Title Game Preview: Gonzaga
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #21 Michigan (6-0) vs #6 Gonzaga (8-0) |
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WHERE | A Literal Ballroom A Resort, The Bahamas |
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WHEN | 2:02 pm Eastern Friday, Nov. 29th |
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THE LINE | Gonzaga -4 (KenPom) | |
TELEVISION | ESPN PBP: Jon Sciambi Analyst: Dick Vitale Sideline: Jimmy Dykes |
Right: a very good mascot
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
This hasn't been updated for the UNC game and may not before tipoff. Thanksgiving week tournaments: a bit tough to schedule around.
THE BRACKET
Is no longer necessary. This is the title game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. For what it's worth, the last two winners have gone on to take the national championship, something you should expect to come up on the broadcast one or two dozen times.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Gonzaga is coming off an Elite Eight appearance in which they were, like Michigan, knocked out by Texas Tech. They've lost a few NBA players in Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, and Zach Norvell. Starting point guard Josh Perkins and his backup Geno Crandall both graduated. Mark Few has built an elite program, however, and this year's Bulldogs enter this game at what had been an empty-calorie 8-0 until their overtime win over #15 Oregon in the semis.
With all that production gone, big man Filip Petrusev has gone from an efficient freshman on the edge of the rotation to the centerpiece of the team. In what was a ragged game all around in the semi, Petrusev stood out, scoring 22 points (7/15 on twos, 8/9 FTs) with six offensive rebounds, nine defensive boards, an assist, a block, and three turnovers. He shot 64% on twos last year and displayed three-point range; while he's 0-for-6 from beyond the arc this year, he's at 64% again inside of it with a good free throw rate and percentage.
Fellow big Killian Tillie, a senior import from France, sat the season's first four games and the quarterfinal win over Southern Miss while recovering from a knee injury. When healthy, which hasn't been often the past two years, Tillie is one of the better stretch big men in the country. Oregon's athleticism gave him trouble; he fouled out in 27 minutes with seven points on 3/11 shooting and a couple turnovers. At his best, he can bash down low, rebound well, and hit threes at a 40% clip; a second game in two days may not bring out his best, though he'll have a size advantage when he shares the floor with Petrusev.
As is the usual with Gonzaga, the lineup is filled out with excellent shooters. Small forward Corey Kispert took the lion's share of his shots from beyond the arc last year and hit 37% of them; he's at 45% on 51 threes so far this season. Texas A&M transfer Admon Gilder is a career 37% three-point shooter on 414 attempts; he's mostly a spot-up shooter on this team, though he's yet to heat up this season. North Texas grad transfer Ryan Woolridge is adapting well to a lower-usage role despite being the nominal point guard, or at least was until Oregon held him to a 1-for-7, two-assist, two-turnover performance.
The bench is short, which could play a factor in both of these teams's third game in three days. (It's also a relief to your author writing his third preview in three days.) Freshman forward Anton Watson, who'd ably filled in for Tillie, hasn't played since rolling his ankle in the first minute against Southern Miss. That leaves sophomore wing Joel Ayayi, a good passer and excellent marksman this season, and freshman big man Drew Timme, a solid finisher who's active on the offensive glass.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
Gonzaga is one of the few teams approaching Michigan in eFG%, and their offense moves in front of M's by being better at everything else—avoiding turnovers, pulling down boards, and getting to the line, with a particularly large gap in the latter two. They tend to work inside-out; while they have a lot of shooters, they prefer to work those guys open while the ball is going through the post.
They're also an excellent defensive team, again with a similar profile to Michigan's with a gap in two areas, this time turnover rate and rebounding. They're good at limiting outside shots and forcing opponents to go one-on-one.
THE KEYS
Clean the glass. Even more so than against UNC, Michigan can't afford a possession gap against Gonzaga, a team more likely to make you pay for giving them a second chance. Isaiah Livers is going to have to punch above his weight class for a decent portion of the game at the four, and Colin Castleton's minutes spelling Jon Teske will be key. So will Teske's, of course.
Play under control. Zavier Simpson did a much better job against UNC of playing within himself on offense, committing a lone turnover after eight in his previous outing. Wasting possessions against a team this efficient on both ends is a backbreaker. Michigan showed good discipline against UNC in knowing when and when not to push the ball up the floor and when to play it safe and reset; they'll need to be great against the Bulldogs.
Make their bigs run. Petrusev and Tillie are large and intimidating. I'd like to see Michigan do their best to pull those two away from the basket. When one is at power forward, that'll mean chasing Livers around the perimeter. Lots of high screens and bigs popping to the perimeter can accomplish similar things. Pulling those guys away from the hoop can open up scoring opportunities and add the benefit of wearing them out.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Gonzaga by 4.
If it's going to go down this way, my bet is it's because the Zags win the turnover battle.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^
I think it’s OK to deviate from KenPom right now. His preseason projection for Michigan appears to have been significantly off the mark and is unfairly weighing us down in the rankings at the moment. (Case in point: UNC is nine spots ahead of us even after our game.)
If KenPom is calling this a four-point Zag win, that’s probably within the margin of error created by that erroneous season projection for Michigan.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:10 PM ^
do you want me to get killed on a holiday, man
November 29th, 2019 at 7:45 AM ^
No. We're past the holiday, though, so it's OK to get killed now.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:25 PM ^
KenPom stats this early in the season? Not meaningless but not great predictor. Michigan could beat anyone.
November 29th, 2019 at 1:04 AM ^
WE'RE WINNING THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!!! ?
November 29th, 2019 at 9:04 AM ^
Well, that escalated quickly.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
After the Iowa State I said it was hugely important because Michigan was going to most likely get two chances at good wins. They already got one. I’ll be rooting for them to get a second, but a split on a neutral floor against two consecutive top 10 teams is a fantastic outcome come Selection Sunday.
If they beat the Zags, then that’s two wins that’ll really put them head and shoulders above other teams in March.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^
Two teams that aren't very likely to nosedive, either, so the positives of it should hold up.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:49 AM ^
We already have two. Iowa State is a damn good win. It might not have the sexiness on paper of a UNC or Kansas but make no mistake, Iowa State is a high quality win.
November 29th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Haliburton is an elite player. After our game, the studio analysts were comparing him to Ja Morant.
Dunno if he will go 2nd overall, but Haliburton will be giving B12 coaches nightmares.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^
Damn, Ace you are prolific.
Thanks!
November 28th, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^
Hopefully the refs also hold back on the foul calls this game as well. I get having to call what you see, but both Livers and Simpson fouling out felt a bit excessive.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:34 PM ^
And the Teske "turnover" when he was hit by UNC's linebacker was an atrocious call. Also, with all the slipping and sliding going on, how come in two games I didn't see the officials pause the game a single time to get the floor mopped up? That has always been under their purview. They don't have a very good crew doing these games, at all.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:19 PM ^
If you're going to spend the holiday away from home, you might as well win the whole thing!
Go Blue!
November 29th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
And apparently the National Championship in the spring . . .
November 28th, 2019 at 9:25 PM ^
Not sure if you should have so much faith in Kenpom if they have us at 21 in the nation.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:03 PM ^
Never question the Kenpom.
November 28th, 2019 at 9:37 PM ^
I was trying to remember a time where Michigan basketball played Gonzaga and I couldn't think of one. Googled it and according to this, they haven't met a single time since head-to-head was tracked beginning in the 1949-50 season.
www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/gonzaga/head-to-head.html
www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/head-to-head.html
Couldn't find Michigan's head-to-head from 1909 to 1949 so I guess they could have played during that stretch.
November 28th, 2019 at 10:02 PM ^
How are you not WD?
November 29th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
Who said he's not?
November 28th, 2019 at 9:59 PM ^
KenPom is definitely overrating Gonzaga and underrating us. I think this is a very winnable game. It'll be close, but is very winnable
November 28th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
I mean, he predicts that Gonzaga will win by four. Isn’t that, “close, but very winnable”?
November 29th, 2019 at 1:45 AM ^
It’s actually now down to three, 73-70. But even that isn’t the best way to look at it — the prediction is actually that Gonzaga has a 63% chance to win the game, giving Michigan a 37% chance. The three point margin might be the single most likely outcome, but the confidence value is a better representation of what KenPom’s model expects — not quite a toss-up, but neither would a Michigan victory be a huge surprise.
(By comparison, Duke had a 99.8% chance to defeat SFA).
November 29th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the spread should be closer to the point where I think we should probably even be favored in this game
November 28th, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^
Will there be Seth graphic for Gonzaga’s players? Love the detail in those. Really appreciate the write ups.
November 29th, 2019 at 2:02 AM ^
Probably for B1G season since those opponents are predetermined. The elimination tournaments are harder to preview because you don’t know who you’re playing until the day before
November 28th, 2019 at 11:54 PM ^
MSU lost to Gonzaga in a pre-season scrimmage so they're at least as good as or similar to Virginia Tech.
November 29th, 2019 at 12:13 AM ^
Somebody buy Shaq a Michigan hat.
November 29th, 2019 at 1:25 AM ^
Thanks for working on Thanksgiving
November 29th, 2019 at 6:47 AM ^
I think Michigan wins this for one dominant reason. Gonzaga has paid a far higher price to win the last two games in two days. Take their transfer point guard Woolridge. Prior to the Oregon game, he was battling a sore knee. Nevertheless, they had no choice but to play him for 41 minutes!! A physical game where you are down in overtime, drains a team. Meanwhile a healthy Simpson played just 17 minutes in game 2. I see Simpson having a great game particularly on defense.
November 29th, 2019 at 7:49 AM ^
Good point, the prior foul-outs might work to our advantage.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:16 AM ^
I want to murder Dick Vitale. Such a UNC homer I had to mute the TV. That is all. Go BLUE!
November 29th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
I always mute the TV when Vitale is on and about 70% of the time when others are doing a game. I do not know how some of these announcers get their jobs as they jibber jabber about nothing or make obvious comments or are often wrong but never in doubt about what is going on in the game. Much more enjoyable with the sound off.
November 29th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Vitale was particularly bad yesterday. Constantly talking up Cole Anthony, who is a good player, but when Michigan is winning by 20 maybe praise a few of their players. Then openly calling for fouls on Michigan when there was already a huge disparity in calls in favor of UNC. It was annoying. I muted it for a bit, but then relented.
Overall just a horrific piece of work by Vitale.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:30 AM ^
Awesome how well Juwan and his team have started this season.
GO BLUE! The crown of Atlantis is there for the taking.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^
I hope nobody gets hurt on that slippery floor!!
November 29th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Too much wedding champagne spilled on it over the years.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
Teske and Castleton finished with eight more fouls left to give.
Don't be shy, you can't redeem those for nice prizes in the Atlantis gift shop after the game. Use them up to disrupt the Zags bigs.
November 29th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
ah, those refs were whistling our guys for fouls for looking at the UNC kids.
November 29th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
The great and amazing player of Gonzaga: Killian Tillie.
He is just so HOT right now.
I am sad you forget to mention that Killian is French!
November 29th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
You mean he should have said something like “Killian Tillie, a senior import from France” - would that have done it for you?
November 29th, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
That would have been more than acceptable! ;)
November 29th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
I don't blame you Ace, it'd be hard to predict us to win, despite going up by 24 vs UNC, and crushing the spread. Cognitive dissonance is to blame here, seeing the Vegas line of G -4 vs what we've seen. I identify it, and thus will say, we win by 3.
November 29th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Yes, i like the idea of more iso plays for livers today.
November 29th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I gotta say seeing players slip on the floor really bothers the hell out of me. It’s dangerous and game changing.
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