Unverified Voracity's Annual Playoff Screed, But Prompted Comment Count

Brian

lsu-freek

HATE THE BCS? HATE AMERICA

The dumbest thing ever written. This is not literally true, but it may be the dumbest thing ever written about college football. It is this Bill Hancock guy's shoddily argued nonsense about the BCS. I've become a playoff guy over the past decade or so but even BCS proponents in the blogosphere (of which there appears to be one, the guy behind Get The Picture) have to wince at statements like this:

College football was one weekend away from Boise State participating in the BCS National Championship Game because of what happened on the playing field — not in a chatroom, a boardroom or a newsroom.

In the event that Auburn lost and Boise State won, yes. The reverse happened and instead the BCS works and is fair and that's Gary Patterson's artery spraying a red mist over most of the Southwest but how did you think Sedona, Arizona, ended up looking like that? Do you want a thriving tourist mecca to evaporate overnight when college football coaches cease venting the bloodmist that gently descends on the mesas?

Orson has gone FJM on the thing—it exists to be fisked, I thought about doing it myself—but you don't have to do anything other than blockquote to obliterate this extremely stupid system:

A playoff also would mean the end of America's bowl tradition as we know it. As Rick Baker, president of the Cotton Bowl, said, "A playoff system would ruin the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic."

We can't have that.

BONUS: Putting "Classic" in the name of your thing is a 100% sure way to tell that your thing is neither classic nor an actual thing anymore, in the, you know, traditional sense where entities are somewhat authentic outgrowths of desires instead of remanufactured bullcrap like "chocolate" diamonds that make me wish that authentic outgrowths of desires that form entities like Adbusters weren't equally odious and even more shrill. The "Cotton Bowl Classic" is at Jerryworld, not the Cotton Bowl. It can die in a fire for all I care.

OBLIGATORY REMINDER OF MGOBLOG PLAYOFF PLAN: Six teams, no autobids, byes to the top two teams. No more than two teams per conference, and those teams can't play each other in the first round. Home games until the final, one the week after the championship games, one on January 1st, final at the Rose Bowl January 8th, leave bowl system alone.

This preserves almost all of the urgency of regular season and guarantees that the champion is also the team with the best season-long resume since five of the top six lose and anyone not 1 or 2 wades through three elite opponents, staking an undeniable claim.

This year's hypothetical bracket:

1. Oregon vs winner of 3. TCU / 6. Ohio State
2. Auburn vs winner of 4. Wisconsin / 5. Stanford

If Auburn had lost to Alabama they would probably have fallen to fifth (ballparking it) and gone from a first round bye and January 1 home game to a first round game in Madison or Palo Alto—a freaking huge deal. Losing one game boots Boise and Michigan State, and two is fatal for everyone. Since the current system frequently sees one-loss teams into the championship game it's difficult to argue this system cheapens the regular season.

If you want a lengthier explanation I pretended I was talking to Joe Posnanski about it last January. In sum, there is no reason people who do not stand to lose money would oppose the idea.

This Week In Less Charismatic Than Stalin. Terrelle Pryor:

"I'll put it like this: You put me in any of their offenses — any of them — and I'd dominate," Pryor said, when asked about the attention afforded the likes of Newton, Robinson and Persa. "I'd dominate the nation. What those guys do, that's what they're supposed to do in their offense."

He goes on to say the usual boilerplate about how he's all about winning, which could be interpreted as a mitigating factor if Pryor didn't manage to twist every bit of boilerplate into another reason to think Pryor should be locked in the basement by Tressel until his graduation. Doctor Saturday looks at the numbers and says pretty much what I did in the OSU preview—against defenses that are actually good Pryor folds alarmingly.

In contrast:

Robinson said he also remembers picking up some snow, playfully chucking it at Rodriguez, "and then running pretty fast after that."
Robinson also packed snow into a plastic bag for his return flight.
"Melted on the plane," he said.

How does Robinson know if he's running fast?

This Week In Coaching Blah Blah Blah. Have fielded a couple inquiries as to why I'm not covering the "coaching search" or "situation," depending on your point of view. I'm not because there is no "search" and there is no reliable information on the situation. Time and again I have been told by people one or two or three steps removed from insiders that Rodriguez is going to get fired after the Ohio State game. Or on Monday (yes, as in three days ago, which makes absolutely no sense). Or pretty dang soon. Or that Brady Hoke is a viable candidate. Or etc etc etc etc. I got so much chatter in my inbox that made no sense that even the plausible stuff now carries the sheen of ulterior motive (not necessarily from the emailer, but from the discontent insider-type person) or wishful thinking (from Brady Hoke's friends and family).

I have no updates that are reliable enough to relate. There is a cottage industry of people telling other people that Rodriguez is definitely gone that has proven inaccurate multiple times so far in the past month, so I probably won't be able to say much definitively unless I get something solid from a few established guys.

To reiterate, I've run everything I've heard through filters of reliability and making a damn lick of sense and come up with this:

  1. There is a nonzero chance Rodriguez is not brought back or Brandon would have/should have already announced it.
  2. There is a nonzero chance Rodriguez is brought back or ditto.
  3. One game is probably not the deciding factor.
  4. Harbaugh exists. No other candidate strong enough to make a move compelling does.
  5. You cannot start a real coaching search that takes two to four weeks a month before Signing Day.

The conclusion is that on January second Harbaugh or Rodriguez will be Michigan's coach and that person will be the coach in 2011. No one peddling a story other than that is credible unless their name is Dave Brandon, and even then he's probably just having you on.

I don't know which is more likely. If I get anything that changes my opinion I'll mention it.

BONUS: A scientific poll shows that Michigan fans are split right down the middle: 35 percent want him gone, 32 percent want him to stay, and 33 percent are unsure. That's amazingly apropos. Too bad it doesn't include a section asking people "have you raged incoherently at someone about this opinion?" Three percent said they'd prefer Brady Hoke over Harbaugh (64 percent) or Miles(23 percent).

Penn State exodus? With Joe Paterno slightly old and doddering Penn State relies heavily on its ancient, incredibly stable coaching staff to prop up the ship. There was slight panic when DL coach Larry Johnson Sr. seriously considered taking the Illinois DC job a few years ago—it's testament to the loyalty of the staff that he stayed—and now with Pitt searching around BSD's a little concerned the Panthers might look at the blindingly obvious candidate: Tom Bradley. Bradley's considered the be the heir apparent to Paterno and probably should be since he's been the motive force behind the good bit of Penn State forever, but if he can't leverage the Pitt opening into something approximating a guarantee he's the guy he could be tempted to go. Too bad the NCAA put a kibosh on that coach-in-waiting stuff.

Meanwhile, LB coach Ron Vanderlinden is "linked to" the Ball State job. This will probably lead to nothing except a couple of raises but it's worth keeping an eye on if only to see how easy OSU's path to the Big Ten Championship game is going to be.

Etc.: The Daily's Nicole Auerbach scores a WSJ article about the Big Chill and the growth potential of college hockey. Big Ten Hockey cannot come fast enough. Thoroughly patronizing AA.com article explains to you what "faceoffs" and "hat tricks" are. Dave Brandon says Michigan is "highly interested" in adding D-I lacrosse if it proves viable. Monumental's series of awesome wallpapers continues.

Comments

JeepinBen

December 9th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^

One thing i like about the bowl system as it currently stands is that it allows 35 teams to end the year on a win. Without the bowl system, we wouldn't have kicked florida's ass a few years ago, and we wouldn't have out Jan 1 date with MSU (ntmsu). 

I think that an "elite playoff" (brian's top 6 proposal or something similar) should happen, and keep the lower bowls. It lets the teams get the trip, the swag, and the chance to end their year on  a win. 

esipp

December 9th, 2010 at 3:17 PM ^

I think this is the biggest hold up to a 6+ team playoff. While I like Brian's proposal, what do the road teams that lose in the first round get? If they are played at campus sites, I'm guessing not even half of the ticket revenue would equal the payout from a current bowl (depending on conference $$ sharing).

I think we're much more likely to see a +1 title game, which means just adding another "bowl" and even more money for schools. It's very tough to incorporate keeping all the revenue the same or higher, Jan. 1 bowl sanctity, and more than 4 teams into a playoff.

CompleteLunacy

December 9th, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^

How about a loser's consolation bowl? (That would be an awesome bowl name, btw!) That way everyone gets their bowl game (playoff round #2 would be technically a bowl game, I think...the round #3 is the championship +1 bowl you speak of). I actually really like Brian's idea, it seems to be the most logical and a great way to hybrid this playoff vs. Bowl game issue.

Magnus

December 9th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^

FWIW, I've seen lots of college coaches at clinics and such, but very few have been more impressive than Penn State's crew.  Several of those guys seemed to have the magnetism and charisma to be a head coach at some point: Ron Vanderlinden, Tom Bradley, and Larry Johnson.

psychomatt

December 9th, 2010 at 2:59 PM ^

I'm also thinking Tressel might want to take away his Twitter and let him go back to writing messages on his eye black. At least eye black washes off when you're done.

imafreak1

December 9th, 2010 at 3:02 PM ^

Here's my serious question (I'm not just being an assface) about the 23% of people that want Les Miles. Are they;

A. Paying attention and like what he's done recently.

B. Paying attention only to the record.

C. Not paying attention and still fighting the last coaching search battle.

OneFootIn

December 9th, 2010 at 3:02 PM ^

Am I just tripping or does the timing of Urban Meyers resignation seem a bit spooky? Are there two possible candidates for RR's job available right now?

UMaD

December 9th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^

My critique of Brian's is that it still relys so heavily on the polls.  Oklahoma, MSU, Boise, Arkansas and others have strong arguments they belong over Ohio State in 2010.

My preference:  8 teams, auto-bids from 6 BCS conference champs. 2 bids for non-BCS conferences (e.g. Notre Dame, Boise, etc.)  Most years the top 2 seeds will have relatively easy matchups with whatever crap is produced from non-BCS schools or whatever weak team is coming out of the BCS (e.g. Big East champ)...so it still retains the spirit of the 6 team system which rewards the top 2 teams more heavily than others.

I'd prefer only conference champs advance to put the focus back on winning the conference and put less responsibility in the polls.  Polls can be used for seeding, but don't need to decide who does or doesn't gets a shot at the title.

WolvinLA2

December 9th, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^

Your version doesn't solve your critique of Brian's method at all. If you have 8 spots and 6 autobids, then only 2 of TCU, OSU, MSU, Stanford, OU, Arkansas and Boise get to go. However you determine the at-large bids, your system would guarantee that a top 6 team (TCU, Stanford or OSU) would miss out so that UConn, VT and OU get in. And most likely those teams you listed would all be left out in either system.

a2bluefan

December 9th, 2010 at 3:42 PM ^

The thing I have hated the most about the BCS is its reliance on polls, especially the coaches' poll.  They used to use the AP poll when the BCS started.... but after a year or two, the AP decided they'd have none of it.

I'd be ok with the MGoBlog 6-team plan if the top 6 were determined by the AP poll coupled with some sort of SOS factor, AND that poll would not be released until the end of the regular season (incl. conference championship games).   That said, your 8-team plan is ideally what I'd like to see, use a poll for seeding.... or maybe even an NCAA seeding committee.

 

UMaD

December 10th, 2010 at 1:59 AM ^

would be fine too.  I actually think the polls are kind of fun, but they shouldn't be relied upon so heavily.

The added bonus of the BCS-conference-champs-only proposal is that it would encourage teams to schedule difficult non-conference games, and even (gasp) away games, in order to better prepare for the all-important conference schedule.  Who cares if you go 0-3 in non-conference against Alabama, Texas, and USC - win your conference and you go to the playoffs.  (I realize this is wishful thinking since tiebreakers and home game revenues will still trump that...but its a little more incentive to play challenging games.)

ShockFX

December 9th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^

This will probably lead to nothing except a couple of raises but it's worth keeping an eye on if only to see how easy OSU's path to the Big Ten Championship game is going to be

Meh, Wisconsin is tough for them, and PSU might have a resurgence under a non-corpse of a head coach.  But yeah, OSU has the easier division as long as PSU is down.

righteouschops

December 9th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^

Art Regner was on WDFN today saying that his sources tell him Brady Hoke is a done deal.  Makes no sense to me but apparently he was confident in it.  He also said that Harbaugh wants the job, but it wasn't offered.

BRCE

December 9th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^

Regner is desperately trying to make a name for himself again. Seriously, if there was any "done deal" and they were able to keep a lid on it do you really think that one of the precious few who would know about this would be Art freaking Regner?

gremlin

December 9th, 2010 at 3:18 PM ^

"The conclusion is that on January second Harbaugh or Rodriguez will be Michigan's coach and that person will be the coach in 2011."

 

While I 100 percent agree with your five points, I believe the conclusion should be that we will find out on January 4th, possibly the 3rd, rather than the 2nd, because Stanford plays onthe 3rd.

MI Expat NY

December 9th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^

In sum, there is no reason people who do not stand to lose money would oppose the idea.

The problem is, there are people that stand to lose money, and not just the bowl operators.  Playoffs make remaining bowls even more meaningless, meaning less payout.  Under a strictly top-6 system, every non-BCS conference would look at it and think they have almost no chance at making the playoffs.  They lose the extra money from the BCS on a yearly basis, paltry as it may be, to join a playoff system that will almost always exclude them.  Similarly, how often will the Big East put a team in the playoff?  Adding the two groups together, those are 61 of the 120 teams of NCAA FBS that are in line to lose money from your 6 team proposal.  

The NCAA has to approve any additional games to be played, I don't see it happening unless it makes more money for EVERY school, not just those in BCS conferences.  Most people's ideas for a playoff that aims to maintain the intensity of the regular season rely on 4-8 teams getting in.  This just isn't probable with what it would take to replace the BCS.  When we get a playoff, it will be Weitzel's 16 team, every conference gets an automatic entry proposal. 

ESNY

December 9th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^

Please explain how a playoff with make the remaining bowls even more meaningless.   The non-playoff teams would still play in the bowls just like the non-BCS teams still play in bowls.  These bowls will be as relevant as always.  Right now, only 2 of the 70 odd teams playing in bowls can possibly win the national championship, so how would the bowls for the 68 other teams (or 64 under a 6 team playoff) be any different?

The playoffs would just replace the BCS bowls and would consist of additional games, thus make more money.

st barth

December 9th, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^

"The playoffs would just replace the BCS bowls and would consist of additional games, thus make more money."

I'm sorry, but you don't just replace the Rose Bowl (let alone the other BCS bowls) with a playoff.  Those are the crown jewels of college football.  Moreover, they are powerful and independent entities within the college football universe.   Eliminating those games is about as futile (though logical) as the Soviet efforts to eliminate Catholicism in Poland.  Even Stalin realized that that was as "absurd as putting a saddle on a cow."

lager86

December 10th, 2010 at 9:23 AM ^

My vote, if I had one, would be a "plus 1" system.  Play all the traditional bowls as they were, Pac 10 v Big 10 in the Rose, Big 12 v whoever in the Orange, SEC v whoever in the Sugar, and then chose the top 2 teams to play in the Chapionship Game.  At this point, there's almost 2 weeks between the new years day games and the BCS championship game.

MI Expat NY

December 9th, 2010 at 4:53 PM ^

Right now only one game really matters, this is true.  But you still have good match-ups in three of the remaining BCS bowls.  Additionally, this one game that matters is 6-10 days after the other semi-meaningful bowls.  The BCS bowls and select non-BCS match-ups still get plenty of attention.

Under a six game, three week playoff.  The playoffs are going to dominate the entire bowl schedule.  There isn't a 35 day window where you can only dissect one game for so long, so you might as well cover the other bowls.  Not to mention, the other games being played will be without the six best teams.  Think about it this way, how disappointed are we during the regular season when there isn't a top 5 team playing anyone in the top 25.  That would become the bowl season, except there's a whole separate playoff where the top 6 are just playing each other.  Which set of games do you think people are going to care about?  

You're right that the bowl games that are pretty much meaningless today, will still be meaningless, but that doesn't hurt my argument.  Schools actually lose money playing in those games.

mich_engineer

December 9th, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^

I'd like to counter that with a very specific example: Wojo from the Detroit News.  He's recently strongly expressed a view that RR should not be back in 2011.  I personally believe Wojo to be the best MSM football writer in the state of Michigan, and he certainly seems to know a lot about football (more than I, or probably any posters on this site except for Brian do).

M-Wolverine

December 9th, 2010 at 4:34 PM ^

On this site who know more about football than Wojo. Have played, coached, been around programs, or simply watched more. They may or may not be as funny, and your point of best of a bad bounce holds true, but Wojo wasn't passed over for any coaching positions.
<br>
<br>He is, however, qualified to run the Lions.

m83econ

December 9th, 2010 at 6:57 PM ^

Writes opinion columns.  He is not a reporter (if any of those people still exist) or a beat writer.  His depth of knowledge about football rivals that of his knowledge of most sports. He's been spewing thd same stuff for years, and although he's one of the better parts of the dead tree press, provides nothing new.

MGoShoe

December 9th, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^

...this story about Jim Delaney's very pointed comments to the non-AQ conferences at a recent panel that addressed the topic is a must read. 

Inside The W Hotel in Manhattan on Wednesday morning, they sat side-by-side on a platform. Five of the most powerful men in college athletics -- the conference commissioners from the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-10, Big 12 and Big East. Also part of the panel was Western Athletic Conference commissioner Karl Benson.

Although Benson was seated with the group at IMG Intercollegiate Athletics Forum, it's very obvious: Benson and his league are clearly viewed as an outsider by the big boys.

And college football's behemoths -- the automatic qualifying BCS conference commissioners -- vow they'll keep it that way. 

Essentially, Delaney went off on the idea that the non-AQ conferences are getting a raw deal and essentially threatened that if they continued to press their luck on getting additional concessions, there would be hell to pay.

Delany sat between SEC commissioner Mike Slive and [Larry] Scott, the Pac-10's new commissioner. Only a few feet to Delany's right sat Benson, but they may have been located on opposite sides of the Earth -- much like their polar opposite views of the BCS.

At least on two occasions during the forum, Delany interrupted Benson to hammer his opinion home.

"The BCS has provided greater access," Benson said. "Look at 120 schools, 11 conferences and to establish opportunities for those student-athletes. To play on the big stage, we've been to the big stage. ...

"The problem," Delany interrupted, "is your big stage takes away opportunities for my teams, to play on the stage they created in 1902."

Responded Benson: "I think the group of five (non-automatic qualifying BCS conferences) has established value in the last five years."

"The notion," Delany said, "that over time by putting political pressure on, it's just going to get greater access, more financial reward and more access to the Rose Bowl, I think you're really testing. I think people who have contributed a lot have, what I call, 'BCS defense fatigue.'

"If you think you can continue to push for more money, more access to the Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl. I have tremendous respect for Boise and TCU. ... I think they are tremendous teams that can beat any team in the country on a given day. I think the only question is, 'Does one team's 12-0 and another team's 12-0 equate?' And that's where the discussion plays out, not whether or not they're elite teams or deserving access to the bowl system. I'm not sure how much more give there is in the system.

<<<<>>>>

Benson said he supports the BCS, but wants even more access and more revenue. This is not a popular subject with Delany.

"We gave up the Rose Bowl, the SEC gave up access to the Sugar Bowl, others were included but they never had access to any of this before," Delany said. "You have to understand who brought what to the table. Who's continuing to give and who's continuing to get."

Delany, then, not so subtly drew a line in the sand.

"The only thing I would say, if you think you (the non-automatic qualifying leagues) can continue to pressure the system and we'll just naturally provide more and more and more," Delany said. "I don't think that's an assumption that our presidents, athletic directors, football coaches and commissioners necessarily agree with.

"Karl (Benson) says we like this contract and we want more. Well, we've got fatigue for defending a system that's under a lot of pressure. The pressure is for more. It's never enough."

<<<<>>>>

"You can discuss it until the cows come home. The only way the system works is if everyone is willing to play the game. It doesn't work if I take my ball and go home. It doesn't work if the Big East takes its ball and goes home. Does it work if Mike (Slive) takes his ball and goes home? This is nothing but an interlocking of contracts that are negotiated."

Those contracts, though, may not be renewed if the non-automatic qualifying leagues keep asking for more. And from Delany's tone: this isn't a threat, but a promise.

Guess what?  There's not going to be a playoff anytime soon.