NFL Draft Eve Debate

Submitted by Trip McNeely on

Over the last few weeks I’ve had an ongoing debate with a few friends. What should the Browns do with the 1st and 4th picks?

I am on the side of take Barkley number one and then whatever QB is left that you like best. I know this is a little unconventional, but I have my reasons.

  1. It’s the Browns and you know that no matter where they take a QB in the draft he won’t pan out.
  2. There is no “sure thing” at QB in this draft. Now yes, I understand no draft pick is a sure thing but there are some players you know will at least be decent NFL players
  3. If you hit on Barkley and the QB you are set for at least ten years at two very important positions.
  4. It’s the first and fourth pick! There will still be a valuable pick at QB with the fourth spot. If it was the first and say 24th pick I would say take a QB all day long

I could go on and on, but I won’t. Just curious what people think the Browns should do with their picks? Do you agree with me? Should they take a QB first? Should they trade both picks for even more draft picks? I can’t remember a draft where a team had picks this close together this early.

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2018 NFL Draft

American Hotel

April 25th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^

with Hyde and Duke and the RB depth in this class, they don't need Barkley.and with Tyrod they don't need a QB this year. After the Giants and Jets take Rosen and Mayfield, respectively, they'll be able to flip the 4 for an extra pick to some desperate team who wants Darnold or Allen. Or they could be really bold and smart and take Nelson at 4, which would give them the best OL and DL in the draft, leaving a wide open buffet for the second round. FWIW, I do think Rosen will have the best pro career of all these quarterbacks.

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MichiganMan_24_

April 25th, 2018 at 5:06 PM ^

Talk out of NY is the Giants love Darnold..So if the Jets take Mayfield as thats also the word...The Browns have Rosen who does not want to play in CLE and the even more risky Allen...yikes

 

take Darnold at 1...I think ts simple but i dont get paid enough for people to believe me

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Perkis-Size Me

April 25th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^

I get the lusting for Barkley. I really do. He could be just as good, if not better than Elliott and Fournette. He could also be Trent Richardson. With running backs, you just never know. I just can't invest that high of a pick on a running back when I think I can get more overall value elsewhere. The Browns aren't "one player away," which is the only time I personally could justify the risk. They have holes everywhere. 

If I'm the Browns:

-I take Chubb #1 overall. There is no clear-cut #1 QB option in the draft this year. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen are all really good but no one has truly separated themselves from the others. You're getting more or less the same value from all of them right now. Chubb is far and away the best DE prospect in the draft. The dropoff from him to the next guy is noticeable, and pairing him alongside Myles Garrett could make for a special DL in Cleveland. If you don't take Chubb, the Giants probably will. 

-It sounds like the Browns are choosing between Darnold and Allen. Word around town is the Jets want Mayfield, so if I'm Cleveland, I sit back and still pretty much have the same pick of who I want at #4 as I did at #1. Even if the Jets go with Darnold or Allen, Cleveland still has the option to take the other guy they wanted. The Giants aren't taking a QB so Cleveland is safe to wait until #4 to take their QB. 

-Yeah, you'll lose out on Barkley. But you can get plenty of value from other RBs on Day 2. Guys like Nick Chubb or Sony Michel will be available, and they were both great RBs in their own right. 

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Birdman

April 25th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^

Trent Richardson played behind the bama line. Barkley will not bust.. But Taking him 1 seems like a net negative VAR in taking whatever QB at 4. Chubb at 4, maybe. Qb1 and then Barkley or if already taken either trade out(Bills if QB3 suits them) or take Nelson (just drafted QB1 right!?! ) It will be interesting this year to see how soon qb5&6 get drafted and what the order will be.

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MGoStu

April 25th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^

I like most of what you're saying here, except: Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield are all flawed but still pretty good. Allen is not. He's always been a mediocre QB at a non-P5 school. He reminds me of Kyle Boller but without the accuracy and I'm completely baffled as to why anyone would draft him, much less at the top of the first round.

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Perkis-Size Me

April 25th, 2018 at 10:35 PM ^

I feel the same way. It’s all about his physical tangibles, though. Out of the potential first round QBs he’s the one who most fits the mold of what teams want nowadays. Tall, big, can move around in the pocket and pick up his own yards if he has to. He sounds close to Cam Newton size.

I think teams that want him are banking on being able to fix his mechanical issues and accuracy issues. But you’re either big or not. Tall or not.

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PoundTheRock

April 25th, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^

I think by saying "they are set for at least 10 years" by selecting a RB and QB is a little optimistic.  The average length of a RB career in the NFL is 2.5 years and QB is 4.4 years.

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MarcusRay97

April 25th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^

We have the 10th pick I’m hoping we can trade back to the 20s and grab Mo Hurst ... If we stay pat then I think we draft a LB Edwards from VT or Smith from GA ...

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LV Sports Bettor

April 25th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^

being a HUGE value pick....... If you can just get league wide average production from QB on a rookie deal who say is making $5 million (last year #3 pick Trubisky) then you can take that $20 million that you saved at that spot and add 3 MORE high quality NFL starters (for example- Darius Slay, TJ Lang and Glover Quin all added up were $21 million last year) and no this isn't a dig on Lions paying Stafford (who I'm huge fan of). 

Best example is when Seattle had their big run lot of that was because of all the money that they saved at the QB spot early in Wilson's career. Seems the Rams and Eagles are enjoying that nowadays with Goff and Wentz bringing more to the position than they are being paid. The Bucs and Titans have also elevated their teams with Winston and Mariotta even though neither has been elite thus far but both have been more than good enough to create a surplus of value also. 

So what I'm saying is if I'm Cleveland I'd absolutely grab a QB early in this draft. If they get one who gives them average production they will be sitting pretty at that spot.

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MichiganFan1984

April 25th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^

I mostly agree with you OP. I do think Rosen is going to be the best qb of the bunch so hard to pass on him.

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Burt Macklin_FBI

April 25th, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^

I would personally take Barkely at #1 & then hope Mayfield fell to #4. I think Saquon is a HOF caliber athlete & if I had to guess, I would take Mayfield to be the most succesful QB in this draft. He's a good mix of relatively high floor, plenty of potential & a bit of an attitude (Which can be a blessing and a curse, but I see more passion & leadership from him than the other guys).

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DeepBlueC

April 25th, 2018 at 8:54 PM ^

You don't win championships in the NFL with your running back.  You win them with your QB and your defense.  Using the #1 pick on a RB is nuts, and is only favored by fans with a college FB mentality.  

And Oklahoma QBs have a nasty habit of tanking in the pros after putting up Heisman Trophy numbers in college.

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reddogrjw

April 25th, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^

hope they draft one of these at pick 20

 

Vea

Landry

Payne

Davenport

Byron

 

or trade down and draft the G from Georgia

 

2 DL and 1 guard, plus a RB, TE and best player anywhere else with their 6 picks please

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Solecismic

April 25th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^

You don't want to reach too far because of need in the first round unless it's a QB you believe in, but I think the Lions are in a position where they have to get an edge rusher with that first pick. Unless they don't think there's an impact edge remaining when they go on the clock.

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Gr1mlock

April 25th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^

I think take Chubb at #1 and a QB at #4, assuming they have all the top tier guys pretty close on their evaluation (which I do, since they all have warts).  Chubb's a stud, and you can never have too much pass rush.  Barkley will be an excellent RB, but you can find excellent RBs later in the draft (especially this year) - elite pass rush guys are much harder to find.  

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Hold This L

April 25th, 2018 at 5:35 PM ^

The rb position is o-Line driven. Put an average back behind an amazing o line (see Dallas) they look like a hall of famer. Only two guys I’ve seen run behind horrible lines are Barry and AP. They’re in a class of their own. I don’t know if Barkley is in that class. Teams were able to contain him last year in some games. Barry was never contained in college. AP when healthy was never contained.
This is the same reason I don’t want the lions to take a rb first or second round. Too many other important positions. They need to let this o line develop some chemistry. I think they played one or two games together last season. See how an off-season together and possibly a few games works out before you take guice when tion green is as much of a downhill force and when your d line is garbage.

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Solecismic

April 25th, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^

I think Barkley is in that class. He will make a team with a so-so OL a threat to run and a team with a good OL something we haven't seen in the NFL in a long time. I'm trying to imagine what a mind like Belichick's could do with Barkley. The rest of the league would never recover. I know it's a long shot because of the expense and because the Pats need defense desperately, but what if the Cooks trade was an attempt to get enough pick value to trade up to grab Barkley? So, I'm obviously quite optimistic about Barkley in that I think he's a good amount above Zeke in ability. RBs contribute right away. And, of course, he could wreck a knee in training camp and never be the same. RBs have the shortest careers and the most significant (Adrian Peterson excepting) losses with a knee injury.

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Farnn

April 25th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^

Interesting article on 538 about why spending a top pick on Barkley could be a mistake. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-why-drafting-saquon-barkley-…

Sure he could be a great RB, but a lot of the value in draft picks is getting great production at a much lower price than a free agent would command.   So it's more valuable to get a pick at a position that commands top dollar like QB or DL.

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Solecismic

April 25th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^

That's a good point. My counter-play is that the talent curve differs significantly at different positions. Running back is a position where there are a lot of competent players and because of the pounding they take, their value is primarily in that first four years. With the exception of QBs, you draft based on that four-year value rather than any other consideration. So the question is whether Barkley is far enough outside the primary part of that curve that it gives his team a dimension it didn't have otherwise. That's hard to price if you think only 2-3 guys in the entire league could provide that - or maybe just Barkley alone. The price of a competent RB solution has become quite low because supply exceeds demand. But you might price that added dimension differently.

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Farnn

April 25th, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^

The article actually discusses the production of RBs by round drafted and found that while yds/g is higher for 1st round picks, yds/c is almost identical across all 7 rounds.  So the only reason to take Barkley is if he is truely a generational talent, and even then top 4 may be a stretch.  

Look at Dallas and Elliott.  They got a ton of production out of Eliott as a rookie, but I recall their secondary really struggled (why they took JD Lewis and that corner from Colorodo in 2017).  Instead of drafting Eliott at 4 they could have had Ramsey the next pick and gotten some a decent FA RB.  No one could have forseen Eliott's suspension in 2017 but in the 2017 season the two backups actually had higher yards/carry than Eliott.

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Solecismic

April 26th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^

I don't know how it would break down. And I hate people who throw out an argument and make an absolute claim based on that argument when they haven't done any research. But I'd rather go with total yards because everything is situational in the NFL. A back who primarily plays in passing situations will have a higher ypc. A battering ram who doesn't play in passing situations will have a lower ypc. The question I'd ask in a proverbial draft room is if I'm drafting a guy in the top ten, is he so good at what he does that my opponents will have to change what they do because of him. At the college level, both Elliott and Barkley passed that test. But that holds true for a large number of players. My feeling about Barkley is that he's so good at making people miss and getting to top speed that he is a generational talent who could change the game. Look at his Combine numbers. He comes in at 233 pounds. He hits the 10-yard mark at 1.54 seconds and the 20-yard mark at 2.57. Those numbers are elite for a wide receiver 30 pounds lighter. A little better than Elliott's. It's that combination of explosion (a 41-inch vertical leap, too) and bulk and really exceptional vision and moves that makes him that generational talent. Cleveland can't afford not to pick the QB it wants. I think the Giants, though, need to take Barkley and hope Eli's got a couple of years in him.

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Ali G Bomaye

April 26th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^

One of the biggest fallacies in the draft is overconfidence. Even if you "think" that Barkley will be one of the top 2-3 RBs immediately, you have to realize that there's a decent chance you'll be wrong.

Regarding the 538 article, the cost curves are so different between RB and QB that it's crazy. If the Browns decided they needed to get the best available talent at both positions, they should draft a QB and a DE and spend $15M on LeVeon Bell next year.

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ST3

April 25th, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^

The game is won in the trenches. I would take the best available OL and DL. The Browns drafted Joe Thomas a long time ago. I don't recall them surrounding him with other high caliber players. You can't build a dominant line with one all-star and 4 guys. You need some dudes.

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Lawyer12

April 25th, 2018 at 7:12 PM ^

“Set for at least 10 years at two positions.”? Very, vary rare for a running back to be even a viable option for 10 years. Much less being able to find a high caliber starting QB in the same draft. It’s very possible that Barkley has 3, 4, even 5 good or great seasons and is well past his prime (or retired) by the time the QB they draft is developed and ready to lead a winning team.

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DeepBlueC

April 26th, 2018 at 6:55 AM ^

How many playoff games did they win during his career?

Never take a RB with a high first round pick.  Just don't.  Even if they're a Hall-of-Famer, it's still a wasted pick.  The point isn't that you can't GET a great running back with a high 1st round pick, it's that you don't NEED a great RB in the NFL.  Using a high pick on one is overspending.

 

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Ali G Bomaye

April 26th, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^

If you're 100% sure that you're drafting the next Barry Sanders, sure, take him first overall.

But nobody is sure of that. The year after the Lions drafted Barry, the Jets drafted Blair Thomas #2 overall and he sucked. There were other high-profile misses in the few years after that with Garrison Hearst at #3 and Ki-Jana Carter at #1. Heck, Trent Richardson was only a few years ago.

It's also worth noting that the salary cap (which didn't exist when the Lions drafted Barry) changes the equation. Other positions are now a better value relative to how much they cost in free agency. A RB drafted in the top 5 will automatically be one of the highest-paid RBs in the league, whereas a QB drafted in the top 5 will be one of the lowest-paid starters.

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