March 31st, 2018 at 11:50 PM ^
and people remember the last thing they saw. Oddsmakers know this.
yes, the kenpom spread is 8.5 but our lines have been about 1 or 2 points more favorable than kenpom for a while (and we are still covering more often than not). We're playing so well the past two months, and Vegas isn't putting as much weight in our early season performance as kenpom's algorithm does.
and the spread won't stray very far from that either.
The KenPom spread looks like 8.5 points on the main page because Villanova is 8.5 points per 100 possessions ahead of Michigan. There won't be 100 possessions in the game, so you end up with a smaller spread once you project the tempo.
that for subscribers only to see...............that score is based on the 65 possesions that each team is projected to get in the game per KP also. Thats where you will see the score and usually the opening spreads of the games come from. Lot different handicapping (esp totals) before KP became popular as bookmakers were completely lost back then.
Very surprised that Ken Pomeroy doesn't charge more for his yearly subscription. Think it's 20 bucks cant remember but either way this info is priceless and he could get way more for it IMO.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Biggest underdog since 2010? Challenge accepted.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:28 PM ^
Let's see...
March 31st, 2018 at 11:28 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
Maybe no one else even attempts a shot until he has his 6. Rabble, rabble...correlation something...causation something... Rabble.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
methinks they don't take 66% of their shots from three and make half against us.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:49 PM ^
I don't know what percentage they'll make, but I'm very confident predicting that Nova will not attempt 40 threes against us. The most any team has attempted against us all season has been 25.
Interestingly, one of their four losses this season was to Butler, coached by LaVall Jordan. I'd imagine he and Beilein will be in contact.
In their win, Butler shot an absurd 15-22 from 3. They didn't do anything else all that well and gave up a whopping 1.29 points per possession.
Then in a game Butler shot an excellent 12-29 from 3, they lost by nine, and then they got torched by 20 in the Big East tourney.
Sooo, it seems like the only thing he'll be able to say is make 68% of your 3s, which like, yeah, we'll try.
Just because their plan wasn't successful doesn't mean that there's nothing he can contribute. For one thing, he can say "we did this, and it didn't work, so don't try that again." For another, he could say "we did this, and it did work, but we couldn't sustain it because of X, Y, Z." X, Y, Z may be factors that don't apply to Michigan.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^
needs to have the defensive game of his life Monday.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:35 PM ^
I like our chance being underdog.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:50 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
Z needs to alter Brunson's game, and the shooters need to hit. No way Nova hits 50% against Michigan, but they won't shoot 30%, either, they'll probably hit around 40% (a normal game). Which means Michigan can keep up by hitting 40-45% - which is achievable.
Just achieve, boys. Achieve.
The biggest thing is to run them off the line. Don't let them take so many threes in the first place. We've been really good at that this year. Loyola got off only 10 attempts tonight.
I think there's going to be some great matchups and strategy in this one.
I also think it pits the two best coaching staffs, in terms of getting the most out of their talent, in college basketball. Jay Wright has the claim to it right now, but JB can pull closer on Monday.
EDIT: The UVA guy is probably up there too. In terms of regular season success, he has JB. Not tournament success obviously. And Mark Few probably rounds out the final four of coaches that do the most with less.
March 31st, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
Nova -310 according to theScore
expect that to drop some as people love to bet plus juice in big events like this one
March 31st, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
March 31st, 2018 at 11:51 PM ^
Nova went 4-24 from 3 against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. They've had some off nights. The biggest thing is to not let them get many attempts.
Kansas played absolutely no perimeter defense tonight. I don't know what Bill Self was doing with his guys all week to prepare.
Texas A&M's coach.
were outclassed much like they were this on the defensive end where they posted easily their worst DE rating in the KP era this season(2002-2018)
Understimate us at your own risk. Cannot wait to see the defensive effort from our boys on Monday night!
I wouldn't say 2013 Louisville was necessarily an all-time great team. They were very good but beatable. I think the same can be said of Villanova this year.
We have had to play all-time great teams a few times in the final - '65 UCLA, '76 Indiana, '92 Duke. And then '93 UNC and '13 Louisville were #1 seeds. We haven't had a lot of luck with the draw in these matchups. Only '89 Seton Hall (#3 seed) wasn't a top seed.
They don't play the same style of game, of course, but the two teams actually seem similar to me in the way that they are clear favorites with great rosters playing excellent basketball and putting every opponent to the sword.
Not sure I can come up with a parallel for this Michigan team. We've had the breakout offense game (Florida, TAMU), the ugly defensive slog (Syracuse, FSU), the dramatic last-second shot (KU, Houston) and now... well, I'm not sure what Loyola is, but it was a win.
Somehow have to keep it close, and keep them from a late-game run.
per kenpom's adjusted efficiency margins. Louisville was +32.92. Villanova is +33.17.
As others have pointed out, neither team was historically dominant, but both were the best in college basketball all season long in their respective seasons.
Louisville was beatable, we should have beaten them. Villanova is beatable so let's see what happens.
17 years of Kenpom with Louisville it looks to be 8th best.
this Villanova (33.2 to 32.9 team rating) while this year's Michigan team isn't as good as the 2013 team (27.9 to 24.7) which over about 65 possesions equals Michigan being about 2 points worse power rating wise than 2013.
The line in Louisville game was -4 and this one is -6.5 right now.
Obviously Nova is the favorite here. But if our shooting can get on track, then we have a real chance. At a national title. So needless to say I am pumped.