The Big Payoff

I'm pretty sure Beilein has stated he won't take any one-and-done players, so that probably rules out 95% of your McDAAs. But given how his formula seems to be working, why would anyone want a change? Next year's team will be ridiculously good.

I don't think we'll ever consistently get top 10 recruits, since we aren't willing to give them a big payoff. Maybe 1 occasionally here or there.

But this incoming 2018 class is stacked. I think a class ranked around 15th nationally could be a pretty reasonable expectation. 

Of course it'd be nice to get a couple more 5-stars, but Michigan might very well win a  freaking national championship(!!!) this year and is bringing in a great class next year. And people are still asking, "Yeah, but when are we gonna be REALLY good?"

I think the stars are aligning for our beloved coach Beilein. If you look at the way the NBA is played today it looks more and more like a Beilein system. While height and length will always be hot commodities at all levels of bball, this style of play should really help UM attract great young talent. But that's just my opinion, I've been known to be wrong from time to time ;)

is loaded with talents that fit the program. If the one and done does not end soon, which i fully expect that it will, maybe Beilein will get a better shot at some if then.

We're in the Final Four.  I'd recommend trying to enjoy it as much as you can.

 

Not sure if it's been mentioned but we are actually experiencing it right now -- Moritz Wagner is here leading the way because of the 2013 run.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22922995

Honest question...why do you seemingly want (need?) a One and done so badly? If UM is winning games, championships and ,making final fours, what does it matter what "type" of player is on the team?

The Team, The Team, The Team.

And besides, the "big payoff" to the 2013 Final Four, and this years, is that UM has a consistantly good basketball program that wins and is sending players to the league no matter their starz

I believe it will come down to the draft and production. in the NBA.   These recruits watch the NBA, and with the crack down on NCAA Basketball from the FBI, I think the landscape will change.  

THJ and Burke playing well in NY helps.  I don't really follow the NBA so I'm not sure how others are doing, but in my opinion, production at the pro level combinded with high draft numbers and teams not being able to give in$entives to players to come to their university is the only thing that may lead to higher ranked recruits coming to Michigan.  

That being said, I have been thrilled with the recruiting and the foundation that has been built. If recruiting scores stay where they are I won't be disappointed.

one-and-dones only when they met Michigan credentials. I mean the reason this coach was hired was to win and do it the right way. And that has happened, so why would coach who has made a career out of teaching and developing players, go away from the formula that has succeeded?

In fact, he notes that when he had the kids that he helped transform into first round NBA picks, it took awhile to bring the program back to the same level.

Michigan will benefit going forward. It already has with the recruits coming in next year. Five stars are easy to find, they aren't necessarily hungry to learn and grow beyond getting a year or two of college before going to the league.

 

I don't think Michigan will ever attract a Zion Williamson-like uber-prospect over schools like UK or Duke... However, I also think that it's possible that Michigan starts to get a little more pull with a prospect like Joe Girard III, who will probably end up a high 4-star and will still be Duke's lowest-rated offer (out of 10) in 2019 and would probably not be a one-and-done.  

You could go to Duke and come off the bench for your first two years and hope that no super-recruit steals your spot when you carve out a starting gig... Or, you could come to Michigan where 3/4 star guys develop into first-round NBA picks, play for a great coach, and get a bunch of clean looks (especially if you're a shooter) and likely declare as a sophomore or junior. 

No inside information or anything... it just seems logical to me that Michigan would be an attractive school for the mid-to-high four-star prospect.  

Dude. We are in the Final Four. It’s working.

This is a such a Michigan Fan thread.

"WHERE ARE THE RECRUITZ I WANT A BIG PAYOFF"

uhhh..... screw recruiting rankings. The big payoff is happening. We're in the Final Four and could be playing for a National Championship in 6 days.  If you get more excited about recruiting stars than the actual game, maybe stick to video games.

The “big payoff” is ending this season with a National Title.

We are, look no further than our upcoming recruiting class. We are seeing the benefits, we've gotten good recruits away from teams, but Beilein recruits differently. We'll never have one and doners like Duke or UNC.

Beilein's philosophy isn't to go after lots of highly ranked prospects like a lot of the other schools. He looks specifically for players who fit his system rather than just getting the best guys he can get and cobbling something together. I'd certainly like it if we could get a guy like Tyus Battle, Mo Bamba, or Devin Booker. I think the inability to nab one of those guys has hindered the program's ascent, but we don't really know exactly how much bagmen came into play and there might not be much we can ever do about it.

Beilein proved he can make it back to the Final Four with a team whose most highly recruited player is a Kentucky transfer. What he was able to do this season is just utterly astounding. I think more success is obviously only going to help recruiting going forward, but don't look for Beilein to be snapping up 5-stars one after the other. He's said in interviews that it can be hard to get those guys who are used to being a one man show to buy into his system, so he ends up being very picky.

At the end of the day, Mo Bamba and Tyus Battle are going to be sitting at home watching a bunch of 3-stars play in the Final Four, and that's alright with me.

2014: we were in the running for Booker and Blackmon Jr. Due to those misses we were able to sign MAAR and let's not forget Wilson. 4 years of MAAR vs 1 year of Booker or 2 years of Blackmon? I think we won.

 

2015: used our only scholarship (prior to Bielfeldt leaving) on Wagner. Missed out on Jaylen Brown who wasn't very impressive on Cal.

 

2016: missed out on Battle who jilted us, which led to us missing on Langford, Most people (myself included) wanted Winston in this case, but Simpson committed first and Cassius chose MSU Simpson seems like a 4 year player who just keeps getting better and abused Winston twice. Battle would have been nice, but I'm fine with how that class worked out (let's not forget Teske)

 

2017: Missed on one and done Bamba, but at this point how much difference would he have made? Livers and Poole are on the cusp of being really good to great.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I like the vision I see in Beilein, and the results.

This year's class is phenomenal. Then maybe the one after next if we win it all this year.

If one of those types of players is interested in coming here I don't think Beilein will automatically shun them away. He recruited guys like Mitch McGary and Jaylen Brown for a reason. But I think Beilein is also smart enough to realize that most of those players are only interested in coming to school because they have no other choice if they want to go to the NBA unless they're a once-in-a-generation player like LeBron. I don't think Beilein has ever had a guy who's been one-and-done at Michigan. 

Beilein has a proven system of recruiting and it consistently pays off. It's gotten him to two Final Fours and inches from a national title. I don't think he's going to deviate from what's worked. If a big-time recruit wants to come to him, all the better. But he's not going to go out of his way to get them when it's clear they'd rather be at Duke, UNC, KU or UK for one year. He's fighting a losing battle if he goes that route. 

Btw, I want OP to tell me how many OADs there are at this season's Final Four.
 

It has been demonstrated conclusively that most Final Four teams usually have upperlcassmen cores.

Sure there are exceptions like 2011 Kentucky, 2012 Kentucky, 2015 Duke, and 2015 Kentucky, etc. because those coaches are able to get absurd amounts of talent. But they make up less than 20% of all Final Four teams.

Experience matters in key moments. With the exception of 2 teams (2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke), every team that has won the National Championship in recent seaons had mostly juniors and seniors. Even the 2 exceptions I mentioned had an important senior. For instance, Duke had a senior Quinn Cook who provided invaluable leadership to freshman Tyus Jones.

The next "big payoff" isn't going to one-and-dones, it's consistently getting top 40-80 guys. Michigan is getting 60-130 type guys in the recent past and occassionally a higher rated player. If they can get to that next tier, Michigan will be a perennial power.