Good vs Great Coaching and what are reasonable expectations?

Submitted by ak47 on

I know there has been a lot posted on this and I also want to preface this with I don't believe Harbaugh should be fired but I wanted to take a look at what seperates good from great coaches and what we should reasonably hold as expectations.

Michigan has some structural advantages due to recruiting, even with Hokes last two classes being mediocre by Michigan standards they were still higher rated than the vast majority of our opponents.  An average coach could coach most games to a stalemate and win the vast majority of games simply by just not losing to mediocre less talented teams.  As a result the actual value of a coach at Michigan isn't determined by win totals by performance against teams that have similar levels of talent or are having a good season.  So I choose to look at results vs teams that were ranked in two ways, both whether they were ranked at the time (because that is what makese something a big game) and end of season rankings because that is what is probably a better determinant of whether that team was good.

In 2015 vs teams ranked at the time: 3-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season 2-3 

In 2016 vs teams ranked at the time: 1-2, vs teams ranked at the end of season: 3-2

2017 is still incomplete but to this point 1-2 vs teams ranked at the time.

So to this point Michigan is essentially .500 against teams that you look at to determined whether a coach is a good recruiter or actually a good coach. with a 5-6 record against teams ranked at the time and 5-5 against teams ranked at the end of the season.

In comparison here was Hoke's performance agaisnt the same subsets.

2011: vs teams ranked 2-1, end of season 2-1

2012: vs teams ranked 0-4, end of season 1-5

2013 vs teams ranked 1-2, end of season 1-2

2014 vs teams ranked 0-3, end of season 0-3

So this clearly shows that Harbaugh is a superior coach to Hoke and that Hoke really couldn't coach agaisnst any team they weren't physically superior to.  However setting brady hoke as the bar is setting the bar really low.  So while we acknowledge it can be much worse than Harbuagh (hence why I started this by saying I don't want him fired) I also wanted to compare him against an eltie coach and look at Saban's first three years.  When Saban came in Bama was coming off a previous 4 years of 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, and 6-7.  So not exactly a powerhouse and I think a fair comparison in terms of walking into generally superior talent but a bad atmosphere.

2007 vs teams ranked 2-3, end of season1-3

2008 vs ranked teams 3-2, end of season 2-2

2009 vs ranked teams 6-0

So Harbaugh is essentially one year behind Saban and if he can have a good year next year with an experienced team of his recruits would essentially be on the same path.  You are essentially 6 inches from Harbaugh and Saban having the same success rate vs ranked teams through 2 years.  This year is obviously dissapointing but assuming it is a blip Harbuagh has performed relatively well vs ranked teams to this point.  Hope this calms some people down.  Next year is a big year, I think Harbuagh has earned this year as a mulligan. 

Also beat OSU.

MGoBoard

Lakeyale13

November 19th, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^

I find Michigan fans like you amusing. Your whole entire identity must be wrapped up in being a Michigan fan. You can't handle anyone just stating uncomfortable facts about your team. I am a devoted Michigan fan, but I'm not gonna put my head in the sand. As Bill Parcells said "You are what you are!" How one cannot, take a step back, and see that a Coach Harbaugh will have been a failure if he doesn't beat OSU and MSU next year is besides me. If at the end of year 4 he is 1-6 against his rivals he should be on the hot seat. Make all the excuses and apologies for him, but Jim Harbaugh wasn't hired for such a result. Period. You can pay a lot less than $8 million for 1-6 against your rivals

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chunkums

November 19th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^

What exactly is a rivalry to you? We're 1-2 against MSU with the most unlikely loss I've ever seen and another 1-score game. We've played OSU a total of two times under Harbaugh and lost in 2OT after a controversial call last year. What strange reality do you live in where those aren't competitive rivalries?

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Lakeyale13

November 19th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^

If as fans our expectations drop to "Well, let's just root for a team that will probably go 9-3 or 8-4, with an occasional 10 win season and a win over OSU every couple of years" then that is fine. But then don't pay a Coach $8million a year. You ONLY hire someone like Harbaugh and pay him what you pay him for one reason....results! Now it is only year three, and every indication is we will lose Saturday (1-4 vs rivals at end of year 3). If he doesn't provide results at the end of year 4 he should be on the hot seat. What is unreasonable about that?

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chunkums

November 19th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^

Dantonio was 6-7 in year 3.

Dabo Swinney was 6-7 in year 3.

Meyer was 9-4 in year 3 at Florida.

When there is a rebuilding job to do after a previous coach underperformed, there are growing pains for several years. If you thought Harbaugh would come in and immediately start crushing two of the top ten coaches in college football who have fully established programs and redshirt seniors they personally recruited, I don't know what to tell you. MSU has us by one game in that rivalry and their two wins are by razor-thin margins, with one of them being the result of the most insane ending I have ever witnessed in college football. Urban Meyer is one of the top 3 coaches in college football and has a fully established program. Does it suck that we're 0-2 against him in our first two years with Harbaugh? Yes. Is it surprising? It shouldn't be.  What do you mean "the occasional 10-win season?" We won 10 games the year after the previous coach went 5-7 and won 10 games AGAIN the next year, with two plays keeping us from a perfect season. You think 9-3 and 8-4 is the norm now? Why? Because the youngest Michigan team of our lifetimes went 8-4 with our two best quarterbacks injured? Step off the ledge. Everything is going to be okay. If you think we'll hire a better coach than Harbaugh right now, I don't know what to tell you. 

If we put him on the hot seat, who do you think we will hire that's better? Who has a better track record in the same timeframe? We're not hiring Saban or Meyer. 

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Lakeyale13

November 19th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^

Chunkums, I concede you made some really solid points. That is why I think waiting till year 5 will tell the tale. The difficulty for me is that I git my hopes up. I would have bet $10,000 that there was no way in Hades he would be 1-4 against our rivals in the first 3 years.

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chunkums

November 19th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^

I don't know if you've noticed, but since 2010, MSU's win totals have been:

11

11

7

13

11

12

3

There is one awful season and one mediocre season. Can we stop pretending MSU is a crap program of 2-stars who luck their way to everything? Dantonio has built and sustained consistent success, but it took him four years to get that rolling. The only reason he was "beating his rival" in the early years is because he played the two worst Michigan teams in program history in his second and third seasons.

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MMB 82

November 19th, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^

and immediately turned it into a 10-3 team. Has had a first year QB in each of his first three seasons (and three different QBs in year 3). Has dealt with a gaping hole with regard to O-Line recruiting. Replaced 10 starters on defense this year. Has freshmen all over the receiving corps. Has been successful everywhere he has coached.

 

Yeah, I think I'll give him a chance....

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Toby Flenderson

November 19th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^

Since we went 5-7 in fucking 2014, had shitty recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015 AND we have Freshmen, RS freshmen, and Sophomores starting all across the field.

This fan base is so fucking thick. WE ALL FUCKING PREDICTED 8-4 OR 9-3 THIS YEAR AND NOW THE MORONS ON THIS BOARD ARE SO FUCKING SHOCKED THAT IT HAPPENED. WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO YOUR 3RD STRING QB IT IS HARD TO BEAT GOOD TEAMS. 

 

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GordonG

November 19th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

with second rate recruits..

guy can coach and comes up big again and again.

JH hype train is running on fumes....

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I Like Burgers

November 19th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^

Leach has lost to several FCS teams since coming to Washington State and routinely shits the bed at the peak of Washington State’s national profile ever year, you dumb clownfuck of a troll.

How the mods haven’t banned you and any other dipshit riding the Leach train is beyond me.

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Squash34

November 19th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^

You want to talk about big wins with second rate recruits? Harbaugh beat usc as a 41.5 point underdog on the road. Some backstory: USC was bama close to a beach. Stanford was Rutgers, not this year's 4 win Rutgers, last year's one win team that lost several games by 49-0 or worse. That was the craziest upset I have ever seen. I know that is at Stanford. Let's look at Michigan he had 5 wins over 10 or better win teams,4 of which won their division, and another 9 win team. Leave is a coach I like, but he does not have bigger wins than that.

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Bluenin

November 19th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^

I will still be cheering for Michigan for all of those away games next season, like I do every week! I can handle adversity and still root for the team that I have loved forever! But go ahead and keep wishing for that 3 year coaching carousel to continue! Ask Nebraska how that plan is working out for them!

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uncle leo

November 19th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^

Dantonio took over a team that was basically a laughing stock.

Harbaugh had one of the most talented teams in the entire country and couldn't beat a shit Iowa team and an OSU team that couldn't throw the ball last season. 

Harbaugh has the world of resources around him, Dantonio wins with shit star recruits.

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Occam's Razor

November 19th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^

Eh as I said above, I do think it's a culmination of prior year let downs + the way that 8-4 is happening. You're lying to yourself if you thought the offense would be this bad. Everyone also thought the defense would have a major drop off, which it hasn't. 

Nobody expected to lose to MSU this year. Swap UF for MSU and people would be more mellow purely because losing to MSU > losing to UF. 

It's that simple. Beat OSU and I bet you all this angst goes away. 

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HailHail47

November 19th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^

It's not that we lost the games- it's HOW we are losing these games. We shit all over ourselves against PSU and MSU. The play calling was not good. I can be more forgiving on the Wisconsin loss because Peters was moving the ball and then went out. Plus the Florida team we beat was not what we thought. Now with Peters out our chances are pretty low against OSU. I definitely think think we can turn this around in the next year or two, but man have we waited a long time for a championship team.

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Don

November 19th, 2017 at 5:00 PM ^

First, as I pointed out in another thread, the notion that "We all fucking predicted 8-4 or 9-3 this year" is revisionist bullshit—a substantial majority of commenters were predicting 10-2 or better.

Second, judging from your own commenting history, you're the last person on MGoBlog who should be going after others who are critical of Harbaugh:

"Michigan 24, MSU 10. Michigan State is not a very good football team. Of course, they will get up for Michigan and I expect the first half to be tight, but MSU is too loose with the football, an inconsisent passing attacks and they have clear problems in their back 4. I expect Felton Davis to maybe catch a couple long balls, but I don't expect MSU to be able to consistently move the ball against Michigan."

"fuck tim drevno. he is a mediocre OL coach masquerading as a OC. We can go get Don fucking Brown, yet we are stuck with Harbaugh's buddies at OC? Shame on Harbaugh. Go out and get a top notch OC. Go get Jim Bob Cooter"

"get jay harbaugh and tim drevno out of ann arbor. The fumbling issues from our running backs is ridiculous. Our O-line is at the level of a MAC school and we cannot get a push. Our QBs are garbage and cannot read a defense. fuck tim drevno, fuck jay harbaugh, and fuck jim harbaugh if he sticks with his two buddies."

"However, we are not going to blindly follow and agree with every coaching decision. I am not going to applaud a PA pass on 4th and 11 with an atrocious Oline. I am not going to praise calling a draw on 3rd and 4 in a Monsoon against MSU. I am not going to praise the lack of development from the O-Line, when teams with less talent and experience produce superior line play."

"Don't take this personal, but stop being patronizing. The offense is at an anemic level. Michigan's Line play is awful and regardless of experience, should be performing better. People are not being irrational when they see the below-average play calling on offense. Calling PA on 4th and 11 with a shitty O-line is not good."

"Especially in the second half, it was clear that these players threw in the towel and looked lost and stunned. I agree Don Brown did not put them in a good position last night, especially McCray. Nevertheless, our safeties played awful last night"

"Yeah dude OSU and Bama fans are so calm when their team loses. It comes with the territory of playing for an elite program. You lose a game you shouldn't, people are going to be upset. By the way, numerous other teams have younger, less talented lines that work better than this O-Line....such as MSU."

"Jim Harbaugh has been credited as a QB whisperer, and yet Speight/O'korn are below average and Peters is playing form behind unable to compete for the job. Therefore, the lack of deep threat and shakey QB play is due to that perhaps.

"This brings me to my biggest gripe about the coaching. The O-Line is garbage and has been for 3 years. Tim Drevno had no OC experience, and yet was brought in because of his reputation as a OL guru. This has not been the case. Teams with less talent and less experience have produced better lines."

"Next, the issue with the running backs is cause for concern. Jay Harbaugh was not a running back. I believe running back is a position in which the coach needs to have played the position. Each of our running backs have fumbled the ball this year and seem more hesistant."

"In addition, the play calling was still subpar last night. The draw play on 3rd down was inexcusable."
 

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