SIAP: Michigan Opens as 12.5 Point Favorite over MSU **UPDATED LINE**

Submitted by FauxMo on

For the uninitiated, this means that Vegas oddsmakers think Michigan will win by 12.5 points, give or take half a point. (Cue pointless debate about whether they actually think this, or if they just want to tease bets from one side or the other from the gambling public).

IMHO, this seems more realistic than the 17.5 points before the past weekend. I always thought that was too high. This, I think we cover, barring an absolutely awful showing with 3 turnovers or something, or a performance where O'Korn looks like "Indiana game O'Korn." 

UPDATE: The line has climbed to a consensus UM -13.5, so the money is coming in on Michigan. BUT, I just looked at another website which reports that 84% of the bets coming in are on MSU. Unless I am thinking about this wrong, that means that some BIG money gamblers are picking Michigan to make the line move in our favor. THAT I like... 

ANOTHER UPDATE: Bovada just pulled the game off the board. They say it is because of "questionable players." Now, I guess that could be Speight. But it's been apparent to almost everyone that he would probably be out of this game. So is there someone important hurt at MSU? That would explain why money is coming in on Michigan even with a spread that big??? 

MGoBoard

J.

October 1st, 2017 at 6:43 PM ^

26-10 is a two-score game.  27-10 is a three-score game.  Jim Harbaugh is not Mark Dantonio.  He won't go for 2 to make the final score look better if there's a significant downside.

Dantonio is 10-0 against the spread against Michigan because he cares more about this game than he does the entire rest of his schedule combined.  I thought Michigan would blow out MSU each of the past two years.  I'm not making that mistake again.

I expect Michigan to win 17-10 or 21-13 or thereabouts.  The OL has shown a specific weakness to the double A-gap blitz that is the lifeblood of Staee's defense.  I expect O'Korn to be pressured all day, sadly.

Note: I reserve the right to refine this selection if some MSU player elects to channel his inner Florida/Cincinnati/Purdue and run his mouth about how they'll win by 75.

I suppose that's more likely than not, isn't it? :)

Joined: 03/11/2012

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taut

October 1st, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^

I'm almost right there with you, but I see it more like:

Michgan wins 31-13

Michigan: 3-7-7-14

MSU: 3-7-3-0

Key points: Danitoniao opening script moves the ball but UM D holds to a FG. 2nd Q oopsie by UM allows a TD, allowing a brief moment of hope in EL. Halftime adjustments snuff out that hope and lead to a 21-3 2nd half for the good guys. At least one MSU player openly weeps, is caught on TV, and immediately memed and mocked across the land.

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allintime23

October 1st, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^

We'll have two turn overs and win by 14 but if State has two turnovers it could be anywhere between 21-28 points win. States offense is terrible and they can not run the ball. Their secondary is there to be abused if O'korn takes advantage. I noticed the shitty Iowa offense was successful using their T ends. It also looks like State is shaky kicking field goals as well. I expect a game that finished with a 28-10ish score. Is State turns the ball over (8 turnovers in 4 games) it gets ugly.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

October 1st, 2017 at 6:10 PM ^

to make of the MSU defense. They lack talent - I don't think a single guy in their 11 could start for UM. They look slow, their DEs are undersized, and their secondary holds all the time to neutralize WRs running right past them. In the B1G it might not matter with the pedestrian offenses. They're effective. Can the UM offense take advantage? Will JH kick the O into an aggressive and creative gear this week? The offense just needs to manufacture 20+ points.

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Toby Flenderson

October 1st, 2017 at 6:18 PM ^

MSU's secondary has the most glaring weaknesses and that is what Michigan needs to take advantage of. Iowa did not have the athletes to exploit the back 4, but we saw what ND did to them.However, MSU's strength on the defense is their DT's who I do think are a really good pair. However, their defensive ends are average at best, and that is a concern with their secondary.

Joined: 01/16/2012

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taistreetsmyhero

October 1st, 2017 at 6:09 PM ^

seems pretty good at scripting drives--did it against us last year, did it against iowa yesterday.

they'll probably put up 1 or 2 scores from offensive production alone, say 10 points.

O'Korn and the RBs will probably have 2 turnovers. That's 7 more points.

Michigan wears them down like they have every other team.

Final score: 31-17 good guys

 

Joined: 08/08/2012

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ThadMattasagoblin

October 1st, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^

Msu defense is still not good. Iowa's qb ain't great and they pissed away opportunities inside the 10 yard line and 30 yard line of msu. I don't see how msu scores on us. I don't expect us to be dominant on offense but we could win a 20-7 type game.

Joined: 08/24/2011

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NJblue2

October 1st, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^

I think that seems pretty fair. Who knows how our offense will play, I can easily see it being a very tense close game for most of it until we wear them down. Our defense will bully them around as long as we don't put them into bad spots with turnovers. It would be nice if we force some early turnovers and help our offense get started early.

Joined: 08/08/2010

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BigBlue02

October 1st, 2017 at 7:39 PM ^

Last year we were up 3 scores midway through the 4th. If the point is that they are better and we are worse, that means we are still up 2 scores midway through the 4th. Plus, just because they won't win 3 games this year doesn't mean they are good. Being better than last year just means they don't suck as badly. Last year's game was never in doubt, so them being marginally better shouldn't be something they hang their hat on unless they want to lose with dignity again

Joined: 06/29/2009

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Wolvie3758

October 1st, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^

.5 means WE WIN..I dont give a flying fck..This game will be close..We cant count on the defense to win every single game, at some point the offense has to do its share..This might be that game..The good news is If you are going to to have to insert the backup QB then the BYE week couldnt have come at a better time..Come on Offense...bust out!

 

Joined: 12/12/2010

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Esterhaus

October 1st, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^

If we can transition through the red zone on O we'll clean up for the win. And if not, we could lose this one despite it's at home. MSU's defense was surprisingly stout vice Iowa. Our run game will stall unless we are striking our tight ends reliably. Hit those and some long receivers, this opens the running attack obviously and we should win 28-13 or thereabouts behind our backs. Just keep in mind we are MSU's biggest game of the year and they will pull out all stops in attempt to prevail in our house. A bye week can serve as curse or blessing, let's hope our players have healed early and learned their lessons. This game is huge.

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