SIAP: Michigan Opens as 12.5 Point Favorite over MSU **UPDATED LINE**
For the uninitiated, this means that Vegas oddsmakers think Michigan will win by 12.5 points, give or take half a point. (Cue pointless debate about whether they actually think this, or if they just want to tease bets from one side or the other from the gambling public).
IMHO, this seems more realistic than the 17.5 points before the past weekend. I always thought that was too high. This, I think we cover, barring an absolutely awful showing with 3 turnovers or something, or a performance where O'Korn looks like "Indiana game O'Korn."
UPDATE: The line has climbed to a consensus UM -13.5, so the money is coming in on Michigan. BUT, I just looked at another website which reports that 84% of the bets coming in are on MSU. Unless I am thinking about this wrong, that means that some BIG money gamblers are picking Michigan to make the line move in our favor. THAT I like...
ANOTHER UPDATE: Bovada just pulled the game off the board. They say it is because of "questionable players." Now, I guess that could be Speight. But it's been apparent to almost everyone that he would probably be out of this game. So is there someone important hurt at MSU? That would explain why money is coming in on Michigan even with a spread that big???
October 1st, 2017 at 5:40 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:11 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^
Well, that's what we said last year too. I think a physical, pro-style offense will be able to grind out yards here and there. I think MSU can score 13-17 points in this game.
October 1st, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^
And they could do nothing until we went prevent to trade time for yards after their first drive.
October 1st, 2017 at 8:04 PM ^
I think we stopped them 2x on 4th down, both within FG range, in the 1st half. If dantonio was smarter he'd have taken the points.
Look, don brown is a badass, and will be ready, but MSU always gets up for us. TBH I'm more worried about our OL vs the double-a gap blitz.
October 1st, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^
LJ Scott has been a major disappointment this year and MSU cannot run the ball at all. I wouldn't call their backfield "good". It isn't a dumpster fire, but their running game is limited to Lewerke's legs...which does not fare well against a Don Brown defense.
October 1st, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 9:06 PM ^
If by several you mean one, maybe two
October 1st, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
Michigan: 3-14-3-7 = 27
MSU: 0-7-3-0 = 10
October 1st, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
I see the future.
October 1st, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^
this is way wrong - we go for 2 after the last TD, thus 28-10.
duh
October 1st, 2017 at 6:43 PM ^
26-10 is a two-score game. 27-10 is a three-score game. Jim Harbaugh is not Mark Dantonio. He won't go for 2 to make the final score look better if there's a significant downside.
Dantonio is 10-0 against the spread against Michigan because he cares more about this game than he does the entire rest of his schedule combined. I thought Michigan would blow out MSU each of the past two years. I'm not making that mistake again.
I expect Michigan to win 17-10 or 21-13 or thereabouts. The OL has shown a specific weakness to the double A-gap blitz that is the lifeblood of Staee's defense. I expect O'Korn to be pressured all day, sadly.
Note: I reserve the right to refine this selection if some MSU player elects to channel his inner Florida/Cincinnati/Purdue and run his mouth about how they'll win by 75.
I suppose that's more likely than not, isn't it? :)
October 1st, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 7:34 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
I'm almost right there with you, but I see it more like:
Michgan wins 31-13
Michigan: 3-7-7-14
MSU: 3-7-3-0
Key points: Danitoniao opening script moves the ball but UM D holds to a FG. 2nd Q oopsie by UM allows a TD, allowing a brief moment of hope in EL. Halftime adjustments snuff out that hope and lead to a 21-3 2nd half for the good guys. At least one MSU player openly weeps, is caught on TV, and immediately memed and mocked across the land.
October 1st, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
Precision.
October 1st, 2017 at 5:53 PM ^
FSH S&P advanced stats puts our win probability for this game at 80%, with a projected score of 31.4-16.7 (indicating a projected margin of 14.6).
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-michigan-advanced-statisti…
October 1st, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:10 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:18 PM ^
MSU's secondary has the most glaring weaknesses and that is what Michigan needs to take advantage of. Iowa did not have the athletes to exploit the back 4, but we saw what ND did to them.However, MSU's strength on the defense is their DT's who I do think are a really good pair. However, their defensive ends are average at best, and that is a concern with their secondary.
October 1st, 2017 at 6:09 PM ^
seems pretty good at scripting drives--did it against us last year, did it against iowa yesterday.
they'll probably put up 1 or 2 scores from offensive production alone, say 10 points.
O'Korn and the RBs will probably have 2 turnovers. That's 7 more points.
Michigan wears them down like they have every other team.
Final score: 31-17 good guys
October 1st, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:44 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 7:50 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
Just to be sure, could you hack into the the system and mess with the game clock or something.
Also, don't forget to hack the election and get Devin Gardner elected Governor of Michigan.
Thank you.
October 1st, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
I think that seems pretty fair. Who knows how our offense will play, I can easily see it being a very tense close game for most of it until we wear them down. Our defense will bully them around as long as we don't put them into bad spots with turnovers. It would be nice if we force some early turnovers and help our offense get started early.
October 1st, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^
score was 32-23. with an equally dominant d and much better offense, against a worse msu team. it will be close
October 1st, 2017 at 6:23 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
turnover prone team.
October 1st, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
...and they're probably better than they were last year
October 1st, 2017 at 7:39 PM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 8:18 AM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^
Twice I agree with you
October 1st, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
Better than last year and okourne will in 4 wide a lot ! Attack edges and olb with tight ends and will have success like ND did ! 28-6 mich
October 1st, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
.5 means WE WIN..I dont give a flying fck..This game will be close..We cant count on the defense to win every single game, at some point the offense has to do its share..This might be that game..The good news is If you are going to to have to insert the backup QB then the BYE week couldnt have come at a better time..Come on Offense...bust out!
October 1st, 2017 at 6:43 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^
If we can transition through the red zone on O we'll clean up for the win. And if not, we could lose this one despite it's at home. MSU's defense was surprisingly stout vice Iowa. Our run game will stall unless we are striking our tight ends reliably. Hit those and some long receivers, this opens the running attack obviously and we should win 28-13 or thereabouts behind our backs. Just keep in mind we are MSU's biggest game of the year and they will pull out all stops in attempt to prevail in our house. A bye week can serve as curse or blessing, let's hope our players have healed early and learned their lessons. This game is huge.