SIAP: Michigan Opens as 12.5 Point Favorite over MSU **UPDATED LINE**
For the uninitiated, this means that Vegas oddsmakers think Michigan will win by 12.5 points, give or take half a point. (Cue pointless debate about whether they actually think this, or if they just want to tease bets from one side or the other from the gambling public).
IMHO, this seems more realistic than the 17.5 points before the past weekend. I always thought that was too high. This, I think we cover, barring an absolutely awful showing with 3 turnovers or something, or a performance where O'Korn looks like "Indiana game O'Korn."
UPDATE: The line has climbed to a consensus UM -13.5, so the money is coming in on Michigan. BUT, I just looked at another website which reports that 84% of the bets coming in are on MSU. Unless I am thinking about this wrong, that means that some BIG money gamblers are picking Michigan to make the line move in our favor. THAT I like...
ANOTHER UPDATE: Bovada just pulled the game off the board. They say it is because of "questionable players." Now, I guess that could be Speight. But it's been apparent to almost everyone that he would probably be out of this game. So is there someone important hurt at MSU? That would explain why money is coming in on Michigan even with a spread that big???
October 1st, 2017 at 7:13 PM ^
stout?
Or does Iowa just have a terrible offense?
It is mostly the latter.
This is not anything close the the level of D that MSU played for a few years prior to 2016. They are not a disaster on D, but they are not great either.
It is more than Iowa is pretty bad on offense this year.
October 1st, 2017 at 8:00 PM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
Iowa's defense is extremely slow. Without Jewell this defense would be at the bottom of the big ten. I am sure he was tired in this game after trying to stop Barkley all night by himself. If msu at home can only score 17 on a tired Iowa defense, they may just get shutout in this game.
I really do not understand the doubters in the Michigan fan base. I think Michigan rolls in this one with solid offensive play. People talk about state being up for this one, well what about our defense being up for a shutout. I am more than confident for this one, so I guess that makes up for the doubters
October 1st, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 6:56 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
on the offensive and defensive game plan M uses.
It is possible that Harbaugh will try to win with defense and field position, and give O'Korn very few chances to make costly turnovers. If that is the plan it could be a game that M pretty much controls but witjh a misleadingly close final score (less than the spread).
Or, JH might run the offense the way it ran in the 2nd half against Purdue--plenty of passes on 1st and 2nd down, intermediate routes and crossing patterns instead of longer passes, and more empty sets, than had been the case against UC and AF. With this game plan it is very likely that M beats the spread by a lot (as long as it does not result in 3 interceptions).
On D, maybe Don Brown should mix in zone coverage on 3rd and longs to eliminate the Lewerke running for the first down thing, which is a major part of MSU's offense.
What is the line on MSU trying the throw back screen and/or tunnel screen by the end of the 1st quarter?
October 1st, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 7:18 PM ^
will try to install no-huddle when they are using practice time to ket O'Korn as many reps as possible.
But I would love to see a good number of empy sets on offense.
October 1st, 2017 at 7:56 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 8:01 PM ^
O'Korn played very well.
But it is also true that the offensive game plan was very different (and much more effective) in the 2nd half.
M offense just is not at the point where it can be effective by running a lot on 1st and 2nd down, and then using play action with long balls.
But with the mix of play calling and sets they used in the 2nd half against Purdue, the offense can be pretty good.
October 1st, 2017 at 7:15 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 8:19 PM ^
Michigan is a far better team on paper, and the game is at home. But this is what Dantonio’s teams relish. That us against the world mentality. Michigan should still win, but I fully expect MSU to make the team earn it.
October 1st, 2017 at 8:20 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^
That’s probably one of the least likely things to happen.
October 1st, 2017 at 9:01 PM ^
#scorchinghottake
October 1st, 2017 at 8:48 PM ^
Lewerke is no LamarJackson. I can't see any scenario where Lewerke runs a 50 yd play on Michigan. Not one. I am 100% confident Don Brown will have the D finely tuned. Yes, MSU will be sky high, but so will Michigan. Even if MSU scores 3 defensive TD's, I just can't see a scenario where MSU wins. Even if we get down to Dylan McCaffrey due to injury, I just can't imagine our defense being anything but lights out and our offense being "serviceable" at worst. I will go as far to say that I am more concerned about Indiana then MSU as that will be a trap game, on road and week before PSU.
October 2nd, 2017 at 12:19 AM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 8:56 PM ^
A 50 yard run?! Most of our defense is as fast as he is including some linemen. Cmon man
October 1st, 2017 at 8:45 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 9:12 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 9:21 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^
in the crowd that thinks this game will be closer than 14 points in favor of Michigan.
But those who are worried do have a point. M's offense has not been very good (except in the 2nd half against Purdue).
If that continues then most games will be close deep into the 3rd and even 4th quarters. And sometimes in games decided later weird things happen. Iowa last year.
October 1st, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
It's funny how much over-confidence there is on here before a game compared to the game threads where everyone is pissed and the sky is always falling. Let's just get the win and move on to PSU. I don't care how many points it's by.
October 2nd, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
October 1st, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
that fiirmly believe their defense is much better than we give them credit for. They believe this will be a a low scoring game that will come down to the end.
I tend to agree. Our offense is still fairly anemic and cannot be assumed to score 3-4 TDs on MSU.
This is MSU's super bowl, they will give everything they have and probably play their best game of the season. We need to execute on offense better than any game thus far.
Our O-Line is weak and if they leave gaps like they did against Purdue, O'Korn will be in trouble. We need to win the time of possession and defensively we need to cover Davis like a blanket and pressure Lewerke from multiple directions.
While I believe we win the game, it will not be easy, nor will it be high-scoring.
20-16 or 23-20, we won't breathe easy until the clock turns to 00:00.
October 1st, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^
Go Blue and cover that chalk baby!
October 2nd, 2017 at 5:59 AM ^
His avatar is a clown.
Enough said.
People who do not understand your post have no business betting on games.
You are trying to predict the outcome of the game more often than the general public, who because of information about teams, and because of large sample size, are able to get it right on the mark most of the time. Final lines end up being pretty accurate predictors of what is going to happen most times.
October 2nd, 2017 at 1:50 AM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 5:56 AM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 8:07 AM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 8:13 AM ^
http://www.diehardsport.com/college-football/heres-hearing-wilton-speig…
October 2nd, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
I think this is going to be a tight game. Don Brown has been running a 3-3-5, in part, because he's able to put our best talent on the field with that scheme. MSU runs an offense similar to ours - QB lining up under center, backs running between the tackles, etc. Man-ball. We are going to need 4 DL for that scheme. Mone hasn't been utilized much this year and the possiblity exists that it's because he's a bit of a liability.
MSU has very good numbers defensively. With our O-line and some uncertainty at QB I'm having a difficult time envisioning our offense scoring a lot of points.
UM 23
MSU 21
October 2nd, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
October 2nd, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
I watched a weaker MSU offense move the ball somewhat effectively last year against a D that was arguably better than this year's D.
Do I think they are going to torch us for 400+ yards?
No.
Is it possible they crack the 300 yard threshold?
I think so.
October 2nd, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^
Michigan most likely by 10-14. 12.5 point spread seems about right. I'll go with something like a 17-7 mostly boring game. I think this is going to be a field position battle, that Michigan is eventually going to chip away at with the help of a turnover or two.