27 Tickets To Team 138: Post-Spring Edition
What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + SLOT.
PREVIOUSLY: 137 post-spring. 138 pre-bowl. 138 post signing day.
PACK YOUR BAGS
1. 3TECH Maurice Hurst, Sr.* [Last time: 1]
Crazy productive interior DL. Had just about the same grade at PFF as Michigan's NFL-bound stars despite getting about 60% of their snaps, with more QB hurries than anyone on the team. That's overall, not on a per-snap basis. Likely first rounder in the next NFL draft. Could have gone this year. Get in his belly.
2. LT Mason Cole, Sr. [Last time: 2]
Return to left tackle a fait accompli after spring session where he did not play much, if any, C. Excellent run blocker there two years ago; pass pro was good except against top end guys; two years on he'll be better at the latter. How much is major season key. All Big Ten likely; hopefully he'll deserve it instead of getting the long-time OL starter nod.
3. SDE Rashan Gary, So. [Last time: 3]
Omar comin', except his name is Rashan and he is not little. Like Hurst, stuck behind future pros in 2016. Still flashed freaky ability; year two should be a breakout year so enormous it shatters windows across the Midwest. #1 overall prospects are in fact guarantees, and Gary showed plenty to indicate he would not be an exception.
4. ILB Mike McCray, Sr* [Last time: 4]
Sole returning member of the front seven had some edge issues last year. Tackling in space was an Area For Improvement, as they say. Positives outweighed negatives, though, as McCray was an outstanding blitzer and reliably in the place he was supposed to be. Probably moves to MLB.
5. OG Ben Bredeson, So. [Last time: 5]
Bredeson is locked in at guard next to Cole; tackle snaps were fleeting. Reports are he's greatly improved, as rising true sophomores tend (and need) to; top-end recruiting profile indicates he's got considerable upside. Should be solid, but only that since he is still a second-year player. Distant possibility he flips out to tackle in fall; reputedly in the mix at LT last year.
6. NT Bryan Mone, Jr.* [Last time: 14]
Absolute dearth of interior DL behind him moves Mone up into lock territory. Aubrey Solomon and James Hudson arrive in fall but they're not displacing a redshirt junior who has flashed great talent when he's been healthy. Please please please stay that way. Did so through spring, which is progress. Doesn't have to be great with the guys around him. Plugger is a win. MEAT.
7. FS Tyree Kinnel, Jr. [Last time: 7]
Moves to lock territory after spring despite remaining in the same place. Now the old man of the secondary with a beard to match, Kinnel is so locked into a starting job that he's rarely discussed anymore. Did well with dimeback snaps a year ago and looked the part in the spring game. Heady gent who should get Michigan in the right D consistently. A reload player, not a rebuild player.
8. WDE Chase Winovich, Jr.* [Last time: 8]
Ebullient pass rusher produced five sacks despite playing time often measured in single-digit snaps. 27 pressure events on just 277 snaps is outstanding production, and PFF even liked him as a run defender (+6.5). Best case scenario for him after spending 2015 as an H-back. Jake Ryan-at-DE comps look spot on so far.
9. RB Chris Evans, So. [Last time: 16]
Got the you're-a-starter hook in the spring game and thus moves to lock territory despite a deep stable behind him. Scouts flag football at 7AM. Student of the game. Quick-twitch ankle-breaker; frequent five-wide this spring may be an indicator Michigan plans to utilize his receiving chops more frequently. Should be allowed to wear a helmet that has his hair on it.
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
10. SS Josh Metellus [Last time: 23]
Jordan Glasgow is apparently a VIPER(!) so Mean Ol' Josh Metellus is all but unchallenged as the other starting safety. Loved by Don Brown, who calls him a "savant"; turns out Devin Bush Sr might know a thing or two about defensive backs. Thumping tackler who looked very comfortable this spring; should slot into the Delano Hill role. Not as good at tracking down Dalvin Cook as Peppers, but that's life.
11. WR Kekoa Crawford, So. [Last time: 18]
Bump since the absence of Drake Harris left him the only outside guy with much experience. Outstanding blocker and promising Adrian Arrington-esque big framed guy with downfield upside. Relatively limited spring game reps indicate he's secured his place on the depth chart. One great catch in garbage time a year ago.
12. QB Wilton Speight, Jr* [Last time: 6]
Down from lock territory after Brandon Peters's torrid spring game and Speight's corresponding struggles. While he's still the heavy favorite after a 63%, 8.1 YPA, 17-5 TD-INT sophomore year, I'm saying there's a chance. Impressive pocket presence and plus—but not perfect—accuracy need to return for him to maintain.
13. VIPER(!!!) Khaleke Hudson, So. [Last time: 22]
Moved to the VIPER spot he was born to play and has reportedly locked it down, much to your author's delight. Violent shock tackler just about decapitated John O'Korn, but legal-like, in the spring game; also in the back pocket of tight ends on routes. Not Peppers... but basically Peppers.
14. OG Mike Onwenu, So. [Last time: 9]
Slight drop because Onwenu is not the 350-pound grape-destroying guard previous edition projected but is apparently a 370 pound version of same who needs to drop weight to help his endurance. Inability to shed in year one a little worrisome. Still very likely to start. +3 in 91 snaps to PFF last year. That's like +30 for a full season. Caveat: Rutgers.
![Screen-Shot-2016-02-03-at-10.00.33-A[2]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/mgoupload/7cde8d558e22_99AF/Screen-Shot-2016-02-03-at-10.00.33-A2.png "Screen-Shot-2016-02-03-at-10.00.33-A[2]")
15. ILB Devin Bush, So. [Last time: 10]
Emergence of Robocop as real PT threat cost him a few spots but he remains in the near-lock category after starring as the Tasmanian Devil in the spring game. His blitzing is a problem for RBs and he offers more range than anyone else on the roster. Brings a much-needed infusion of dreads to the starting lineup. Has no idea how to draw a Wolverine.
16. FLEX Ian Bunting, Jr.*[Last time: 11]
Ol' Skillet Hands flashed massive receiving upside after Butt's exit against FSU. Also blew a pass protection rather spectacularly. Emergence of competitors and spring dings knock him down a bit; Gentry and Eubanks may eat into FLEX snaps and see him more inline. Still a rangy rangy man who is no longer blocked by an exceptional receiving TE; breakout en route.
17. FB/H-back Khalid Hill, Sr.* [Last time: 15]
If I had a Panda / I'd hammer in the morning / I'd hammer in the evening / but only in the endzone. Impact Fullback Khalid Hill specialized in two-for-one edge blocks, one yard touchdown runs, wide open flare routes, spectacular catches, and self-nicknaming that was so amazing people just ran with it.
FAIRLY SAFE BET
![635894839030253287-DFPawards-121315-[2]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/mgoupload/7cde8d558e22_99AF/635894839030253287-DFPawards-121315-2.jpg "635894839030253287-DFPawards-121315-[2]")
18. CB Lavert Hill, So. [Last time: 12]
Another frequent spring absentee dips a bit, but proclamations that Hill is Michigan's most talented corner see him slot in as a near-lock. He's got more experience than any other competitor and played well in limited time a year ago. Jourdan Lewis 2.0 is the expectation; have fun living up to that one.
19. K Quinn Nordin, Fr.* [Last time: 20]
Bounces back up after kicker trepidation in last edition since he hit a 48 yarder that would have been good from 70 in the spring game and followed that up with more bombs in Rome. Still, evidence is thin: 2/3 on FGs as a senior. Tice and Seychel also looked good, but only one man in this race can kick a ball so hard it goes backwards in time.
20. SLOT Eddie McDoom, So. [Last time: NR]
McDoom bounces the still-absent Grant Perry after news that his spring game injury is not serious. End-around specialist brough a Breastonian flair to proceedings last year and will hope to add some downfield stuff in year two. High hopes he can replicate Perry's route artisanship and add some spectacular jukes. Watch out for Nate Schoenle here.
21. TE Tyrone Wheatley Jr, So.* [Last time: 19]
Could have gone Gentry/Bunting w/ TEs but this space still projects that Wheatley's size and blocking upside will see him into the starting lineup, or close enough. Moves incredibly well for a guy his size and just needs to get the details down to be a monster. Crushes a guy one play, falls off him the next. Consistency, consistency, consistency. /pours one out for dear departed Kaiju
22. OC Patrick Kugler, Sr.* [Last time: 25]
Cole's move outside opens up a slot at center, Kugler's specialty. For now he is fending off early-enrolled freshman Cesar Ruiz, and since he's a fifth year player and Ruiz is a first year player we'll project that he holds onto the spot. We'll even keep him out of "In A Battle" because we remember his recruitment, when he visited East Lansing and liked it so much he immediately committed to Michigan.
IN A BATTLE
23. CB David Long, Fr.* [Last time: 13]
Early PT last year barely keeps Long above spring breakout Keith Washington and EE freshman Ambry Thomas, but spring absence and lack of coach chatter throws the second corner spot into a wide-open battle. It'll probably be fine what with various talented folks competing; worry factor here has increased meaningfully.
24. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Fr. [Last time: NR]
DPJ was in and out during spring; when in was wowing each and ever practice observer. W/ Drake Harris, the previous resident at this spot, sidelined the whole spring DPJ is your tentative leader. Harris and fellow EE freshman Tarik Black are going to push; the bet here is DPJ is one of the 33% of five-star WRs who's immediately a weapon.
25. SAM Noah Furbush, Jr* [Last time: 21]
Peppers's backup last year, and well-liked by the coaches. But how does Furbush replace a safety? Against Wisconsin and MSU, well. Against spread offenses not so much. Could see meaningful PT in half Michigan's games; could once again be a little-used backup. Watch out for Josh Uche as a blitz specialist.
26. P Brad Robbins, Fr. [Last time: 26]
Foresight of using Jordan Glasgow in a bear shirt instead of a picture of the punter in question should now be undeniable, as I can leave Jordan Glasgow in a bear shirt up instead of scouring the internet for a picture of Brad Robbins, new scholarship punter and hang-time specialist.
27. RT Andrew Stueber, Fr. [Last time: 27]
W/ Newsome almost certainly out for the year Michigan will be choosing between tackle-shaped freshmen and guard-shaped veterans for the RT spot. Our wild guess remains on Stueber but John Runyan Jr's strong spring makes him a candidate and Chuck Filiagia will have a say. There's a reason this is #27.
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TECHNICALLY NOT STARTERS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH
QB Brandon Peters—first Harbaugh-selected QB on the roster comes with massive expectations.
RB Ty Isaac—spring hype petered out into decent play.
RB Karan Higdon—Impressed with his quick cuts and low pad level. Will continue to see snaps.
FB Henry Poggi—less dynamic Michigan fullback, and one who had some issues getting his hat on someone last year.
WR Tarik Black—mondo outside WR impressed at Army game.
TE Nick Eubanks—FLEX TE looks like a TE this year.
TE Zach Gentry—FLEX TE still looks like a WR but constantly catching passes this spring.
C Cesar Ruiz—advanced C prospect will push for starting job
T Jon Runyan Jr.—Tentative RT starter coming out of spring; can he hold on?
G Stephen Spanellis—road grader on the interior had powerful blocks.
SDE Carlo Kemp—well liked by coaching staff and should be Gary's backup.
NT Michael Dwumfour—two deep by default; praised by players and coaches.
VIPER Jordan Glasgow—looked highly capable in spring, should see playing time.
MLB Mike Wroblewski—walk-on is at worst the #3 LB.
CB Ambry Thomas—let's have a tiny war.
CB Brandon Watson—nickelback sort got a reasonable amount of PT last year.
CB Keith Washington—did not find PT last year, will try again.
PUSHING FROM BEHIND
QB John O'Korn—iffy Indiana outing was a win, at least.
RB Kareem Walker—academic redshirt out of the way and time to start displaying that talent.
FB Ben Mason—will get shot at LB but FB depth chart is wide open next year
WR Nate Johnson—mean-ass slot receiver, if that's a thing. Golden Tate is ceiling.
WR Moe Ways—passed by Crawford and Harris. Getting late early.
WR Oliver Martin—slot-ish guy with downfield upside and not-just-a-shooter athleticism.
WR Nico Collins—Funchess 2.0?
TE Sean McKeon—probably did get a redshirt after all.
G Andrew Vastardis—walk-on clearly better than backup DTs, is in conversation.
T Juwann Bushell-Beatty—injuries in spring will not help his cause.
T Grant Newsome—assuming a redshirt.
NT Aubrey Solomon—monster five star nose prospect will be in two deep from the drop.
3T James Hudson—Henry 2.0.
WDE Luiji Vilain—big mover after Army game will push for PT immediately.
ILB Elysee Mbem-Bosse—most likely ILB backup given roster.
SAM Josh Uche—Don Brown dude could be chaos generator.
S Jaylen Kelly-Powell—Cass's pick to cover Ambry Thomas. Promises to be slot-coverage safety.
S J'Marick Woods—3.5 out of Alabama was a favorite of the coaching staff
S Brad Hawkins—we're just going to make this position switch now.
WAITING THEIR TURN
QB Dylan McCaffrey—oblig redshirt year coming up.
RB O'Maury Samuels—just too many bodies in front of him
RB Kurt Taylor—Vincent Smith-alike will likely spend year getting pass pro down
G JaRaymond Hall—only incoming OL listed at under 300.
G Phil Paea—two-way DL/OL will probably land on O, eventually.
T Nolan Ulizio—some playing time he seemed iffy in. Reportedly had mono and was too light.
T Chuck Filiaga—had some Army game struggles; redshirt likely.
T Joel Honigford—redshirt, weight, etc.
3T Lawrence Marshall—now 285 and a three tech, which is one too many moves.
3T Ron Johnson—desperation saw him move inside this spring, hopefully bounced back out to end.
3T Deron Irving-Bey—raw prospect will need to settle on a position.
SDE Donovan Jeter—ND decommit w/ salty comments afterwards will be fan favorite
WDE Reuben Jones—worker popular with teammates.
WDE Kwity Paye—seasoning necessary, but Don Brown dude.
MLB Drew Singleton—coming off ACL surgery and probably needs a year
SAM Jordan Anthony—heated VIPER competition in front of him
WLB Josh Ross—younger brother of James brings more size, fewer instincts.
CB Benjamin St Juste—probably needs some seasoning after playing in Canada.
We're not pessimistic. We are realistic: This is not the year. It's an all-time young roster.
It's not all bad. For one, we can enjoy some of the pitfalls the season will bring--an unexpectedly close win over a bad team, or a player having a wretched game, will be seen as frustrating but understandable as the team needs to grow.
Last year, every little indication that things weren't optimal, especially on OL, was cause for consternation. Because there was a lot riding on the season, and we (rightly) feared that certain problems could torpedo our astronomically high expectations.
This season will be dodgy at times. The team will probably lose at least one game they shouldn't. They'll lose a heartbreaking road game. They might not have enough to beat OSU.
But we all know and expect that 2018 holds all kinds of promise. Because, except for Hurst, McCray, and Cole, basically every key player that we are counting on this year will be back and better.
But I also think they'll probably win a game they shouldn't, essentially, whether its at PSU or Wisconsin. Maryland and Air Force though, those could be more iffy.
The only game we shouldn't win is Ohio State. Wisconsin cannot score points and we are a better program than PSU.
We always "should" beat OSU in The Big House, barring terrible years (7 or less wins).
@PSU is going to be tough. We haven't won a road game in a hostile environment against a Top 25 team (PSU will likely be top 15/top 10) in eons.
Who cares if those games are tough. They shouldn't be thought of as losses on the schedule.
There is a whole generation of fans who can't fathom being on equal ground with OSU. That time is over now. "Shouldn't win" can be redacted from conversations about The Game moving forward.
I'm not that young. I can fathom equal footing. I remember 2003 like it was yesterday. But christ. One win since then. A young team vs. a 5th year senior QB with better talent throughout the roster and equal coaching. Be realistic.
We will be underdogs against OSU to start the season. Every other game should at most be a toss up. Definitely not any other "games we should lose" on the schedule, as stated above.
My comment was more a generalization on the fanbase than anything else. I think I am being realistic if we move that game from "shouldn't win" into "toss up". The drought stings for sure, but I feel, talent wise, and all other things considered, it's back to 50/50.
This worry about Air Force is out-dated. The roster has been recruited to be spread killers and thus will have the speed to shut down the outside and with McCray, Hurst and Mone in the middle it's going to be very hard for Air Force to establish the inside run threat on which the triple option relies. Jalen Robinette, the big, talented wide receiver is no longer there to serve as a pressure relief valve. There's talent on the offense for sure and they'll make some plays but not consistently enough to be a threat. The other thing is the Air Force D is in the same position as Michigan in that it is replacing nearly every starter from last year, including an all-time talent in Weston Steelhammer.
I actually feel more optimistc in some areas than of last year. 1) The o-line should be better 2) People around the program actually feel the d-line will be better, but that one I am not sure 3) I do feel LB play will be better 4) Backend is young but I feel has more talent. 5) almost for sure the running game is going to be much better. So writing this and looking at the roster and the competition I feel are season will go the way of one position. That position being QB. If we won't to ever get over the top we will need consistent QB play against the better teams. If speight or whoever is going to be off, please do it against the weaker teams at home. There were several ways we could have won the osu game, but without speights major,major,major mistakes, that game is an easy win. Fumble at the two and the pick six. Fourteen point swing. Yes he made good plays also but that is what the starting QB at Michigan is suppossed to do. His inconsistent play is the reason for two of the losses and that is were everyones nervousness and pessimism lies or it is were it should. If Michigan gets solid QB play they will be just fine. We have more talent than almost everyone in the big ten, so why should there be any pessimism. Youth maybe, but mine lies squarely where it should and that is the play of the Qb
Goddammit I'm fired up now. We can win with this group! Just need a couple pieces on the OL to come through and Speight to be more consistent.
I agree that McCray should be at MLB because of his edge issues but hasn't everything we've read lately seem to indicate that Bush is going to be the MLB?
Not that he'd be a starter or just behind that point, but I didn't see Devin Gil anywhere.
Not even a mention of Harris. Wonder if he makes it thru the summer. Another "early late".
Black seems like he should be higher from all the hype we and press have created. I think Higdon showed a lot too in the spring -- that feels like a 1/2 combo that gets 80% of the carries.
Harris was mentioned several times. It said he will push DPJ and that he has passed Ways.
Some of Brian's best writing comes in these compact player descriptions. Love it.
As for the rankings, it's hard not to agree with most of this. Everything below is picking nits.
I love the willingness to take a flier on Stueber winning a starting role, but serious doubt it happens. Runyan looks capable, which is more than the best of true freshmen can usually say.
I guess you have to have a real SAM (Furbush)? I'd bet a dollar that Glasgow and Watson both play more than he does.
I would put Black ahead of DPJ right now, but believe that will come down to a camp battle.
Though I'm still not entirely certain why, Nate Johnson appears to be the punt returner and will get his share of slot snaps...I'd put him in the "technically not starters" category.
My bet is that Solomon also eats a hugh chunk of snaps, perhaps at 3T if Dwumfour is the real deal. Hard to see anyone else in a DT role at this point.
I'd put St. Juste and Thomas both in the "Pushing from behind" section. Neither, IMO, is likely to see much PT, but both are good enough to prove me wrong.
Brian's the only one not yet on the Black hype train, I guess.
I think he will be good. I think DPJ will be better. The spring game wasn't a good representation of what his talent level is. He will start right away, though I think Black will get a lot of snaps as well. There are always a few guys who get the hype train treatment each year. Black is one of those guys this time.
I'm confused, was umbig11 referencing Nate Johnson (slot wr) or Ron Johnson?
I was assuming Nate, since he had a bad spring game with 2 fumbles, but the staff seemed to think he has a lot of potential at slot.
a bad finish in his last 4 games last season. He started so hot at the start of the year and everyone seemes to think that his start was his "average". Well maybe it isn't his average ... maybe what we have seen in game competition vs. Iowa, ohio and the spring game is his average. I think Peters has a very good chance to be the QB this fall.
Go Blue!
Overall I don't disagree much, just a few minor thoughts:
- Glasgow should say "VIPER / S" because he'll be the first safety off the bench if anyone gets hurt at any of the three spots.
- Is anyone else terrified that we don't really have a back-up WDE? Who comes on the field when Winovich needs a rest?
- Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see why St Juste is buried at the bottom and Ambry Thomas is considered a competitor for a spot. Thomas looked too tiny in the Spring to be counted on and I'd drop him a level. St. Juste gave up a few plays in the spring, but he was always competing on those catches similar to Stribling's freshman year. I'd move him up a spot. Hill - Long - Washington are your top three, Watson - Thomas - St Juste are all about equal.
- I'll bet a dollar that Runyan starts the opener at RT. I also don't think they've given up yet on LTT. For a freshman to show up in the fall and start is pretty rare - even Cole and Bredeson were early enrollees I think.
Gotta think it'll be Vilain backing up Winovich.
What makes you think they haven't given up on LTT?
Do you mean JBB instead of LTT?
Seems to me that Kemp is pretty suited to be the back-up to Winovich at WDE. He doesn't bring pass rush upside of Winovich, but give Winovich some plays off on more likely rushing downs. Kemp plus some of Vilain on pure passing down, and we should be fine.
If Winovich got hurt that would be bad, but Kemp backed up by Vilain probably isnt' terrible.
Yes I feel St.Juste is way ahead of Thomas. LTT is no longer on the team so my guess is he won't get much playing time at RT. I am pretty sure they have given up on him. JBB may have a chance at RT and at this time I dont think anyone knows who the starter is. Villain will backup Winovich and if he gets stronger may play quite a bit. Will see.
I think Gary sees some snaps at WDE. We could throw out a jumbo line that would not be fun to run against.
I was already worried about CB and now am even more worried after this Long news.
We have talented guys, but are replacing the best CB in the nation and another guy in Stribling who was 2nd team all BIG. There was going to be a dropoff anyway, and if Long is not the lock we thought he was, that's bad news. Especially if we lose a CB to injury (like we did last year).
Overall, I feel pretty good about the D, and very excited to see the new guys on O.
Nothing gets me hyped like referring to Rashan Gary with "Omar comin'". Can't wait for that shotgun to take down some opposing quarterbacks.
Mone, viper Hudson and Kinnel to huge years.
Can't wait for these freshmen to be juniors.
Great review B.
From all reports DIB had an injury when he signed that was going to require time to heal. He was coming from a lower tier program and he was going to need extensive technique and weight room work. He was an extremely talented kid that was raw. That was the take on him from signing day. Spring Reports have done nothing to change that widely held view from the "non insiders".
As a guy who gets all of his info from MGOBLOG and Sam Webb, I read nothing into UMMBig11 comments and I'm guessing most others would not have either. In an odd twist it was your comments that make me feel there is more to it.
News flash: 19-20 year old not entirely grown up yet.
I'm really glad a lot of people that are a part of my life now didn't know me when I was that age.
The young man is an econ prodigy who calculates treasury yields to maturity in his head. In which instance he can tell those of us outside the building how to earn some dosh or at least what these squiggly lines mean.
Yeah, something like, "needs a year to get up to speed" would have worked out better.
I thought it was a list of the entire roster, prioritized by "importance".
It's more like a list of those who have a 100 > x > 0% chance of getting into a game during 2017.
I will have to comb it to see if there are any other "insta-redshirts" who aren't on there. It's always harder to see what's NOT there than what IS.
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