The Talent Differential
I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda.
Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide
Consider this. Since 2013
- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!
- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.
It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.
- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.
Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).
Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:37 AM ^
Google is your friend (or at least your middle schooler's friend). All one needs to do is google a word one doesn't know, and there will be multiple links to the definition of a word.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:49 AM ^
So... you can't or won't tell me either then?
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 8:33 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
I LOVE (all Caps) Don Brown! Someone pointed it out way earlier in this thread but his attitude is
"we're coming - every snap" even if sometimes that gets you burned on a long one. Awesome!
But think back to Wiscy's lone score - who was on the RB?
It happened again vs msu, osu and several pretty devastating times vs fsu - McCray or Gedeon singled on a speedy RB coming out of the backfied on a pass route.
People keep replying to my points with "Yeah, but no Peppers, what could he do?"
And my answer, in summary to wrap this thread up, is if Gedeon was covering Cook then it has nothing to do with Pep not being out there - that would be if Metellus got burned, or whoever replaced #5 on any given snap.
Fisher saw this and game-planned specifically for it, we did not make an adjustment to a pretty glaring hole in the "Always Attacking" scheme. I hope we do in future and I hope to get some super speedy LBs out there too!
I have stipulated that Jabrill would have limited or even shut down some of Cook's big runs - but those receptions (3 for 62, each leading to a score) were back breakers.
and yet AGAIN - we had the lead with under a minute to go and no Peppers and missing Butt for a good bit. Peppers' returns alone are likely enough to get us the few more pts we needed.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:00 AM ^
If we had Peppers, maybe we wouldn't have gotten outplayed. And maybe we wouldn't have looked "out-prepared" given that we wouldn't be scrambling to change our gameplan at the last minute to account for his loss.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:45 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:30 AM ^
I just can't get over the fact that the coaching staff let this match up happen.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:45 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^
don brown can add one star on the top of each player's star ranking. He's that good!
January 1st, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^
I think what gets everyone is that Harbaugh at Stanford was able to beat superior talent in USC. When you consider how he turned around the 49ers some expected that we could immediately compete with OSU (and other top programs) because he's Jim Harbaugh. I still think he will, but it will take some time for his recruits to develop and slowly start chipping away and getting more national level out of region guys.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:40 PM ^
C'mon people - back in November we were all adament we didn't lose to osu, it was stolen from us.
Now that we laid a bit of an egg vs fsu suddenly we didn't beat osu & likely won't soon what with their excellent recruiting...
Stay the course people!
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
Years from now no one remembers why you lost, they just see the W/L records and there's nothing anyone can do to take away that win from OSU or give it to us. It's gone forever. That's why it was so heartbreaking. Losing 3 games by 5 points counts the same as losing 3 by 50 points, unless you're looking as Sagarin
January 1st, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^
What Michigan does is lose to osu though
We finally beat msu
Contend for national championship?
We can't win the BiG and in the last 2 playoff games BiG teams lost 69 to 0
No doubt-Alabama probably has Michigan outclassed at every position and every pkayer1 through 85
When Alabama loses it is an accident
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January 1st, 2017 at 11:50 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:01 AM ^
And
By 31 to 2nd seed
No real improvement
Maybe need to get seeded higher?
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January 2nd, 2017 at 1:23 AM ^
Or Clemson
January 1st, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream.
I don't think that's strictly it though....we were a play or two away from being perhaps in the CFP this year, and if you move away from recruiting rankings as being more than just one of many indicators and accept that a large part of this is also maximizing the talent that you do have (even if it isn't talent that you recruited), that becomes obvious. That is to say, it's a very dynamic issue.
You can find difference makers in more places than just the 4 anf 5 star listings, but you have to employ a staff that can develop those players. We have the luxury of being able to get a decent mix of highly touted names but also to develop those players as well as players that might not be as highly ranked. You can recruit "difference makers", but you can also develop them. If you can do both, you'll have a team that gets into the CFP eventually.
We're just fine.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
That's especially important considering the geographical distribution of the nation's best players—if you look at Scout's top 300, for example, it's stunning how few of them are kids from the upper midwest. The vast majority are from the south and far west, mainly CA. That makes Michigan's recruiting challenge significantly tougher than schools located in those regions.
Harbaugh has shown that he has the ability to recruit with any coach in the country on even terms, but it's unrealistic in the extreme to expect Michigan to pull as many five star kids from the south as Alabama and other southern powers do.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:35 PM ^
I don't care if we had less "recruiting stars." If we had a decent QB and arguably a better starting RB, this season goes very differently. It's so easy to look back and draw all these conclusions. Of course I want us to get the highest rated players, but to keep saying we just aren't athletic enough blah blah blah is getting old.
Yes Alabama has clearly the most talent. But Washington pretty much shut them down. This is college football. There's a lot more that goes into each game than the number of 4 star or 5 star recruits. Ask Iowa...
Harbaugh and his staff will have us contending every year. We suffered 3 excruciatingly close losses this year. Osu did not beat us. I think we will compete every year as long as Harbaugh is here.
GO BLUE!!
January 1st, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:04 AM ^
QB was a problem too. Speight takes a looong time to make a read and then wind up and throw. Our O-Line can't provide a QB that kind of itme.
It's a spiral of those two factors.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:20 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:33 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:09 AM ^
was loaded with 4 star recruits:
Gary, 5 star, 1.000
Peppers, 5 star, .9992
Thomas, 4 star .9682
Lewis, 4 star, .9453
Mone, 4 star, .9434
Wormley. 4 star, .9428
McCray, 4 star, .9370
Charlton, 4 star, .9366
Hurst, 4 star, .9038
Hill, 4 star, .8953
Winovich, 4 star, .8938
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:35 AM ^
I don't think anyone doubts the talent level of our defense. It's the offense that was the weaker link.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^
said He'd take our defense this year no matter what the stars. Maybe I didn't understand him correctly, but the jist I got from that was he thought this was a defense devoid of 4 and 5 star recruits.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^
Nowhere close to Alabama and OSU in terms of stars. What made them so good was their age and experience which people tend to under-value these days.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
Where's our Michcigan style QB? Speight showed a few flashes this season but the first half was awful and the offensive line which was terrible and not of course giving Speight time to throw. Need better talent, with QB's coming up in line we should be good there, now Offensive line? Should be geting better. This will be a 3-4 year process to pull ourselves up from Hokemania.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
I still say that given the deficiences on Oline and w Speight still obviously hurting, going to a spread look with four wide and Evans as a featured back would have been ideal for at least half the plays.
Get some additional speed on the field that can get quick separation and make FSU spread out and put some significant pressure on the back seven.
Instead, Harbaugh/Drevno stuck with a power concept with play action passing and 5-7 step drops that just did not play well against the strengths/weaknesses.
Just my opinion, but think of the last game Lloyd coached against Florida...spread and let the ball fly and it opened up a lot of good lanes for running.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:30 AM ^
Totally agree with this. It seemed like Speight was really struggling to throw downfield after the injury. OK, can't help that if it's his collarbone, but if the defense gets compressed because you aren't passing vertically, you need to think about ways to create spacing or stretch them horizontally. Toss sweeps to DeVeon are not the answer.
Also, shotgun?
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:03 AM ^
The play calling did nothing to help the offense play above its talent / health level. It was DeBord 2.0.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:11 AM ^
Maybe it's just me but it seemed last year, UM had some new creative plays just about every week that surprised the defense. Not sure if that was due to Ruddock being a 5th yr senior and 3 yr starter (granted the first two were at Iowa) but it didn't seem like the offensive staff had that same creativity working this year.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:38 AM ^
Because there are some solid criticisms to our offense the last four games... however, that is who Harbaugh is: he is stubburn as fuck and he is going to make this team tough enough to run the game out on the ground or die trying.
This year we died trying. I think we will run the table next year because of it.
call me an optimist but I think this weakness will not last.
jdon
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:00 AM ^
I have my fingers crossed, because the play calling regressed to a DeBordian level in November and December . . . .without the caliber of players to make it successful.
There were flashes during the season that Harbaugh / Drevno were more dynamic than that, but it went away in crunch time.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:19 AM ^
jet sweeps
pepcat ad nauseum.
all the formations in the world couldn't mask our lack of a running game.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:21 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 1:22 AM ^
Next year or 2018? Obviously next year is the easier schedule but you have an awful lot of new pieces in play. You lose McCray, Hurst, K Hill and Cole but gain a year of experience for everyone else.
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:55 AM ^
3 of the last 4 games were against the best defenses of the season and always play like shit at Iowa. But really all season Speight has been just a "game manager" not a playmaker, and the OL was so awful against Florida St, what can you expect of anyone? Even Washington's QB looked like a scrub against Bama for the same reason. Without a functioning OL, no team can do anything, and those are still Hoke's guys, who had to unlearn everything from their first 1-2 years
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
Get some additional speed on the field that can get quick separation
Did we have receivers that can do that? Darboh/Chesson weren't great in this regard, and Perry was suspended. And of course Peppers was out, if we were planning on using him there.
If we run a passing spread and our WRs don't get open quickly in space, Speight's probably in trouble against FSU's pass rush. He was under enough pressure with the presence of a TE and Smith on the field.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
No. Chesson seems hurt. He's not the Chesson of old. Darboh shows it once in a while, but that's not really him.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:38 PM ^
I believe we led in the last minute of every game we lost. Counter-intuitively, our defense unable to make stops for 60 seconds cost us those three games.
Speight was Sad-Ghost Rudock in the Orange Bowl. Just not accurate or consistent.
Our offensive line...that, to me, is the big deal. No RB can run *through* defenders consistenly. Please MOAR holes. And MOAR time for Speight to pass would help, too.
But yes, I also agree with the OP: Coaching is only going to take you so far. We might hit the jackpot and be able to beat a team across a big recruiting gap once in a while, but if this is going to be something other than "remember when we beat OSU five years ago?" we gotta get more raw talent. If for nothing else to compensate for the Derrick Green/Ty Issac/Ondre Pipkin busts that are inevitable.
I'll refrain from speculating how the recruiting gap came to be and why it persists.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
Counter-intuitively, our defense unable to make stops for 60 seconds cost us those three games.OTOH, all three of our opponents' game-winning drives started in Michigan territory.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
Also, the defense in all those games was out on the field a lot because of so many 3 and outs by the offense. The O did nothing to help the D.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:14 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:26 AM ^
Michigan won the time of possession battle against FSU. Michigan ran 74 plays and had the ball for 34:17 seconds. FSU ran 62 plays and had the ball for 26:43. Michigan only had three, 3 and outs.
Against OSU, Michigan ran 79 plays and in regulation had the ball for 31:13 seconds. OSU ran 82 plays and had the ball for 28:47. (no time stats are kept for overtimes). Michigan only had three, 3 and outs and one of them was their last possession of regulation.
Iowa - yeah, Michigan lost the time of possession and had 5 three and outs.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^