Iowa Most Overlooked B1G Team
I've found it odd that people talk about Michigan's easy schedule when they travel to three top 15 teams: MSU, OSU (write back to me when they have lost more than 1 regular season game and I'll drop them out of the top 15), and Iowa. They also likely get the 2nd best team in the west (Wisconsin, though their schedule is ridiculously tough until November). Interestingly, Iowa only plays UM of the UM, MSU, OSU trio.
This was met with some disagreement regarding Iowa, such that they may be ranked that high but aren't that good of a team (look at the advanced stats for proof). They had a huge positive turnover margin last year as well.
My take however is this. They return the best QB in the B1G, with only JT Barrett being close. Beathard is Davis's (Iowa OC) QB at Iowa (better than JR Rudock) and best QB he's had since McCoy when he was Texas's OC. The question there is whether Ferentz will allow the offense to open up enough to prove it.
While AIRBHG is still in effect, Iowa has as much depth at that position than anyone. They lose a big play WR in Smith but replace him with another big play WR named Smith. They have a couple good possession WRs to counter him. Cobble will be missed, but that likely just means less 12 personnel as Kittle is a fine replacement. The OL was weak on the left side last year, but Myer has moved to his more natural OG spot and while that may take away a bit in the run game, it should drastically help their protection (and while Mayer was good once latched, he struggled at times moving well enough in their stretch scheme anyway, so even then it's a positive).
They return a very good D. Johnson is one of the best DT in the B1G. Jewell is 1st team all B1G caliber. Niemann could be all conference as well. King is one of the nations best CB and Mabin is a very solid 2nd CB who gets tested a lot because of how good King is. Losing Meier and Fisher hurts, as does the hard hitting Lomax (who had some issues of his own in the open field), but they return a lot of talent on D.
And while advanced stats is a legit topic to bring up, Iowa only had two games in the regular season where they didn't hold a two score lead with less than 3 minutes to play: Pitt and Wisconsin. After that they let some teams stay in it but we're clearly the better team (this hurt their advanced stats, but not really their overall skill). Likewise, they are a turnover based D by scheme. They run a lot of variations of two-high safeties and keep their eyes on the QB. Turnovers aren't luck, that gets confused by many. Fumble recoveries have a strong element of luck, but FF and INTs not nearly as much. Likewise their O is very TO averse. So their positive TO margin is likely to remain more than you'd typically expect. That risk averse O also tends to hold down their offensive metrics because it's low YPP, again, we'll see if Ferentz trusts his senior QB more this year.
Lastly, despite going undefeated in the regular season last year (incredibly difficult regardless of schedule), their last two games are how they are remembered, likely because those are the only two games people watched of them. Well they took MSU down to the last minute despite featuring a game plan very similar to Michigan and OSU (that is not attacking deep often enough, likely for the same reason UM didn't try more, because their OL couldn't sustain pass pro against the MSU DL). Look at how OSU, UM, and MSU fared against common opponents and Iowa generally did just as well or better.
Lastly, there was Stanford, which rightly leaves a bad taste in many mouths. But no team forces the match up problem Stanford did for Iowa. That is, in general, the combination of an NFL QB with good mobility, a power run scheme to force them to remain in their base D, and a great matchup problem in McCaffery. Certainly, teams can find some success attacking by similar means, but no team has the ability to attack LBs in coverage and fundamentally alter what Iowa does on the backend like Stanford did in the Rose Bowl.
In conclusion, I think Iowa is a top 15 team this year. Traveling to Iowa should stop being left off the board of tough games and should be seen as right there with at MSU and at OSU.
that MSU would have been the #4 seed, which still puts them in the playoff. Stanford would have replaced OU, not MSU. The seeding is mostly irrelevent. And I agree that we could be left out, but all four other Power 5 champs or ND would have to have a better resume than a one loss B1G champ - certainly possible - but unlikely in any given year.
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Get by that game at 5-0 and I like our chances!
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It would be disappointing, but if we win the rest of the games to go 10-2 it wouldn't be a DISASTER, especially when 10-2 could stil win the division.
Uh, we have an insanely easy non conference schedule. And Iowa isn't that good.
If we lose to both MSU and OSU this season will be a disaster and embarassment. Losing to the Spartans for the 8th time in 9 years and the Buckeyes for the 12th time in 13 years would be an utter catastrophe given that both those teams lose a TON of talent going into this year and we lose practically nothing. That would pretty much solidify that Harbaugh is a coaching tier below Dantonio and Meyer. Would be horrible and hope to God it doesn't happen.
To call the season a success, we have to beat both OSU and MSU. If we have to lose a game, make it to Iowa or Wisconsin.
The losing to those two programs has gone on long enough and it needs to stop NOW.
Agreed for the most part.
The way I view it is beating both of them is a definite successful season (barring something impossibly unlikely like losing 3+ other games). Losing to both of them is a definite failure of a season.
I think beating one, but losing to the other could go either way. Especially if there is no clear best of the three (say we beat OSU but lose to MSU, but OSU beats MSU) I think it could still be successful.
The problem is it seems likely that we could go 8-1 in the Big Ten but still lose the East, especially if that loss is to OSU. I don't see many years where OSU goes 7-2 in the Big Ten without one of their losses being to us. If we lost to MSU, but beat OSU I could see us being able to win the East still (if OSU knocked off MSU and one of Wisconsin or Penn State did the same). But we need Big Ten titles and most of the time we will need to beat both to get there.
One potential interesting situation for this year: if we can beat MSU and make it to the Indiana game undefeated in the conference, we could clinch the East before even reaching Columbus. Now, this is definitely not likely, but I think it is possible. I really think OSU could struggle in Madison in early October (or maybe even in PSU's White Out), and then if MSU could take them down again we'd clinch with a win over IU. Again, not likely, but crazier things have happened.
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You're somehow counting the Iowa game and every other game on our schedule as a gauranteed win, which is absurd. If we go 10-2, it's highly likely that we will have beaten at least one of our rivals.
In the unlikely event we go 10-2 with losses to both of our rivals, yes, it will have been a disappointing season, because c'mon let's freaking win those games, but man, a DISASTER is a pretty dramatic conclusion about a 10-2 season with two losses on the road to talented teams with great coaching.
Remember we got murdered by OSU at home last year. Yes, they lost a TON, but we aren't without losses, one at the most important position on the field. Their losses have maybe closed the gap to nothing or even somewhat in our favor, but they reload with talent and at their place, it's a coin flip game at best. And we're only favored by two at MSU right now which is about right with that being on the road. So that's mostly a coin flip too.
To think that anything but an 11-1 season is a DISASTER is a little much, no? To think that losing to those programs on the road in year two before Harbaugh has even had one of his QBs not redshirted with very few of his recruited players at a point of being able to contribute, is conclusive that he's not on the level of Dantonio and Meyer is insane.
I speak only for myself but I have no idea where the hell this "easy schedule" talk came from. I don't expect any of Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, MSU, and Ohio State to be gimmes. I expect Michigan to beat most of them but any of the first three could be 2015 Minnesota -- a competitive underdog that nonetheless should've been put away if not incredible luck and playing out of their minds. We're Michigan; we get everyone's A-game. And just because I'm a pessimist, I consider us to be an underdog to MSU and OSU whatever the paper matchup says until we actually beat them.
Hell, I'll throw Maryland in there as well, at least this year. Durkin doesn't have much talent there but he knows more about Michigan than Harbaugh does Maryland, and may have a surprise or two up his sleeve. Again, should win, but don't get cocky, kid.
I expect Iowa to be good. Not undefeated good, but still damn competitive.
easy for a schedule with 9 B1G games. With MSU, PSU and OSU potentially down, and 5 of 9 conference games plus all three non-conf games at home, it's probably the easiest schedule we'll have in the next five years, at least.
slate is probably the easiest it's going to be in years.
It's not that we won't have difficult games, but that everyone in Power 5 conferences (besides the ACC) has 3-4 very tough conference games each year. So we're average in that regard.
Our SOS plummets because we have one of the easiest non conference schedules in the country. Most Power 5 teams play one non conference game that they could lose without it being an upset (or, if an upset, not a major one). We don't have that this year.
We also have 8 home games, most teams in college only get 7.
Smaller LB's? Gedeon is 6'3" and 248 lbs, and McCray is 6'4" and 240 lbs. And I assume they have a plan to keep Peppers clean in a grind game like Iowa, maybe even put him at legit safety and insert a "true" SAM.
Inexperienced LBs, that may be a concern, but assuming no injuires size shouldn't be a worry.
From what I saw of Bush in the spring game, he was pretty good at taking on blockers - lots of helmet and sholduers into the chest. He knocked quite a few people backward a la Morgan. I thought he had a much better spring game than most others did. But yeah, if he's in there as a true freshman it might be difficult to grind that out. But an excellent DL should protect him as it is, and the coaches can probably gameplan to help cover him even more.
Yes, his name is Jabrill Peppers. Seriously play him on offense that whole game. Those high hipped slow Iowa LB's will think McCaffrey just got a really dark tan and spent some time juicing.
They're going to work in Furbush at SAM against the bigger teams a la MSU and Iowa I think.
I think most of the B1G West could make this that claim.
As much as a I cannot stomach OSU, I will take someone who threw for 34 tds and 10 ints his first season and is now 100 percent the guy with Urban, over a guy who is relatively safe and doesn't have to do anything under Iowa's ground and pound offense.
and doesn't beat themselves. Never a good matchup for Hoke and RR teams. Harbaugh is different and will likely use a Stanford-like game plan.
for the last 25 years or more, without the little brother complex on their shoulder. They get NO respekt or beg to be in the top 10 conversations. Nor do they think a winning streak against an opponent makes them good enough to beat Alabama for the national title. Especially when said opponent is in the middle of a coaching change fiasco. Kinda like beating ND when Jerry Faust is their head coach.
It all depends on how these Harbaugh teams look going into the future with multiple years with his systeml and insane talent accumulation. I think we're all scarred from the Carr years when we had talent oozing from our ass but a lame offensive game plan always made us play down to people's level. I think we're going to be happily surprised with the sense of urgency and the attention to detail with these future teams. If we have a great team we're not going to waste any time kicking the crap out of lesser opponents. If we have a great team that goes on the road and plays a good Iowa team, I'd expect our team to come out on top. That's the awesome thing about Harbaugh. His teams don't play down to inferior talent and his teams play out as they should. Someone stated we shouldn't be listed as the favorite over OSU and MSU until we beat them. FWIW we outplayed stae last year and not sure if you guys noticed but OSU had enough talent to beat the 2008 Lions. We had every right to get the crap kicked out of us to a team that should have been dominating all season, while we were overachieving with Brady Hoke's malnourished players. Point is, going forward Michigan shouldn't fear anybody.
In his first season as an FBS HC, Harbaugh knocked off a #2-ranked USC on their turf riding the backup QB of a squad that won one game the previous season. You could practically write a "What would Brian Boitano Do?" song parody about him. Just because we're the underdog don't mean we have no chance, and that goes double when Harbaugh's the HC.
But underdog is underdog, and while I get that MSU and OSU are depleted, I won't consider UM the favorite for any reason other than irrational trauma. If we're in danger of controlling the game they can always eject our middle linebacker because an OL pushed him down while people can fly onto our prone QB with reckless abandon.
how this Hot Take could not be fully dropped on Twitter. Slightly above the 140 character limit.
It's going to be a night game late in the season with a lot riding on it, and Kinnick is filled with rabid Hawkeye fans who are ungodly awful as any fanbase outside of MSU and OSU.
They will present the usual problems, a stingy defense with a credible offense that will plow ahead with a running game and occasional downfiled deep throws. They will attempt to win a game of attrition, keep it close and win with a late drive off a turnover or short field. That is their MO even when they don't have superior strength in the trenches. They like to run trick plays and stuff with their tight ends and reverses with their best athletes either on the line of scrimmage or on punts or kicks.
To beat Iowa, you have to pummel them. And that rarely happens at their place. They always find a way to compete regardless of seeming to play a step slower than everybody else. Iowa fans are difficult to tolerate whether at home or on the road. The worst game I ever attended at Michigan Stadium was a loss to Iowa with Brad Banks.
Hmmm not sure I agree with this HOT TAKE. My thoughts are as follows:
1. Iowa was ranked 38 in the F+ rankings which combine the S&P+ and FEI metrics. This is the third best ranking in the West division after both Nebraska and Wisconsin. Advanced stats aren't perfect but in this case they generally comport with the eye test for Iowa: lots of luck, lots of doubt about the actual quality of the team.
2. Do they have any sigature wins at all? Losing to MSU by 3 might actually be their gold star for the season. Aside from that... what is it? Beating Northwestern by a ton? Beating Wisconsin by 4? This team didn't really have many impressive games last season.
3. The team went 5-1 in games that were decided by 1 possession. Combine this with the turnover luck that others have pointed out and you have a team that's absolutely poised to regress simply via regression to the mean alone. On the flip side Nebraska went 3-6 in games that were decided by 1 possession.
4. I think we really need to distinguish between having a weak schedule / winning lots of games and actually being good. Yeah, their schedule is a tire fire this year so I would not be shocked (surprised, but not shocked) to see them win 10 regular season games and sneak into the top 15. At which point I'm pretty sure they will be promptly beaten into the dirt by the winner of the East, and then meet a much better SEC team who will stomp them in a NYD bowl game. You put this team in the East and they probably finish 4th in the division, I would not bet on this team against any of MSU, UofM, or OSU this year.
5. Who is overlooking them? Most polls I've seen have them in the 10-20 range, just behind where they finished last year. If you want an overlooked team I'd be more apt to pick Nebraska, who had awful luck last year, or MSU, who in spite of losing everything on offense should be improved in the secondary.
In my opinion, Iowa will not be the best team in the Big Ten West.
However, they will win the Big Ten West due to their insanely easy schedule.
Wisconsin has top to bottom better talent (and really shouldn't have lost to Iowa last year. Next to our game against MSU, the Wisconsin loss to Iowa was the biggest "gave the game away" of the season. They fumbled the ball twice 1 yard away from the endzone. And still only lost by 4 points.)
However, Wisconsin must play at Michigan State, at Michigan and deal with Ohio State at home. In addition, Iowa gets to host both Wisconsin and Nebraska in Iowa City. Literally the only tough road venue the Hawkeyes will visit is Penn State, but the Nittany Lions are in a very bad place right now.
Iowa could very realistically lose two games and still win the Big Ten West (as long as those two aren't to Wisconsin and Nebraska).
CJ Beathard is a sleeper and should be mentioned as one of the better QB in the country, but the fact he played at Iowa didn't help him. He has to stay healthy because he has been hurt quite a few times, but is a gamer.
Jaleel Johnson is an another DT that is overlooked by the media IMO and is arguably as good as Malik McDowell(whom I also think is miscasted at NT especially when you consider his body type which is more of a Strongside DE than a NT).
Jewell Josey is one player whom I think is underrated at MLB.
Jourdan Lewis gets the pub, but Desmond King may be a better CB. He's a potential 1st round pick and probably should've came out for the draft this year.
That being said, Iowa WRs aren't good and has trouble separating from DBs and they have to rely on the running game and Beathard's arm to keep the chain moving. LeShun Daniels is slated to be the starting RB but Akrim Wadley may be the better back of the two.
And yet, the point still stands: This is a dangerous game. It's an OK opponent on the road, and Ferentz always calls a more aggressive game against Michigan. Commit more than one turnover and there's a good chance we're in trouble.
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If Michigan and Iowa swapped schecules last year, I'm pretty sure Michgian would have been undefeated in the regular season, and Iowa would have most likely two losses (they might have been able to beat Utah, but they would lose to both MSU and OSU).
Also, if you look at the entire season, yes Beathard lokso better than Rudock, but much of that had to do with Rudock learning a new system, and wasn't he injured (but played) for the OSU game? If we look at play during the bowl games when both were healty and fully acclimated to their systems, I don't think there is any doubt that Rudock outplayed Beathard, and I really liked Rudock's post game statement about how nice it was to finally win a Bowl game, which I took as a not so sublte dig at Iowa.