What's Our Path to the CFP Now?
As I see it, we have a better than 50 percent chance of getting in if:
- OSU beats MSU and we win out.
- Stanford beats Notre Dame.
- Our chances improve even more if all the Big 12 teams cannibalize each other and no one has better than two losses.
Wins over Penn State, OSU and Iowa will make us a more attractive two-loss team than any other two-loss team, including Stanford and Notre Dame. They won't take more than one team from any conference, so the final four would then be Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma State (or some other Big 12) team and us.
I'm not saying it's a slam dunk if all this happens, but I think it's our best chance. Am I wrong?
November 17th, 2015 at 10:23 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:52 PM ^
nice profile pic
November 17th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:21 PM ^
Most of MgoBlog would be satisfyied with derailing Ohio State's season, and winning a Big 10 championship considering we were 5-7 last year.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:31 PM ^
Yes. Win out and I'm delighted. I mean, if we're in contention for the playoff, I would like to get in... but games matter, and we've lost two of them so far. To have a playoff discussion be even remotely relevant for Michigan in November is incredible. Beat OSU, the rest is gravy.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:27 PM ^
I wonder what happens if Alabama loses at Auburn again and Florida State beats Florida. I know it's hard to imagine, but it can happen. Does the CFP not include a 2-loss SEC team even though they would've lost the last weekend in November?
November 17th, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^
going to lose to Auburn this season. Then again, I said the same thing earlier this season regarding Oklahoma's chances of losing to Texas.
But speaking of the SEC, we do need things to not get too screwy there, too. My biggest fear is that Florida beats the Seminoles and then squeaks out a SEC Championship win vs. 'Bama, and that a 2-loss Bama stays slotted above Michigan. In that scenerio, a 1-loss Florida and a 2-loss Alabama likely go and Michigan gets squeezed out, whether we like it or not.
Bottom line: If Florida knocks off Florida State, Bama has to win the SEC Championship game.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:36 PM ^
I find this scenario unlikely, just because I have doubts that the committee will be too fond of sending two teams to the playoff that just played each other in the last game. Not impossible, mind you, but Michigan in this very hypothetical scenario would have just posted its two biggest wins of the year (by far, which should throw some cold water on what we perceive our chances to be in those games) against previously undefeated teams.
The crux of this scenario, of course, is that we are assuming that Michigan can vault Ohio State and Iowa by beating them, despite having a worse record. I have asserted this possibility myself, but it is still a tricky assumption.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 1:13 AM ^
ND drops from 4 if OKSt wins out.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:29 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:37 PM ^
If it gets into a situation where Harbaugh has to do some politicking, I wonder what direction he'll take. It would be easy to blame the refs, but he may be better off pointing out the records of the teams they lost to and the rankings of the teams they've beaten. If NW wins this weekend, they'll likely finish in the top 15-20 (they play Illinois to close the regular season). Throw in OSU and Iowa and that's a pretty solid set of wins versus ranked opponents.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:54 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^
If he hates either, it would have to be Michigan. He went 6-7 against MSU and 3-7 against Michigan during his career. In fact, you can argue that his loss to Michigan in 1998 cost Wisconsin a shot at the national championship.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:39 PM ^
Alas, I agree with this. Kinda felt that way during the MSU game, even; the last two road contests have confirmed it. Not that Minnesota or Indiana are bad teams, or that the wins are bad, just that Michigan isn't ready to win at the highest levels yet.
Except against Ohio State.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:35 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:40 PM ^
They won't be a factor after Saturday.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:43 PM ^
Even if Iowa wins out, the winner of OK State - OK assuming its undefeated OK State vs 1 loss OK will move ahead of them that last week IMO because Iowa doesnt have any games left in reg season to improve their rank while a host of other teams do.
I expect the winner of the B12 (if 0 or 1 loss) to move into the top 4, displacing Notre Dame if they lose to Stanford as the B12 winner will have 2 ranked wins, potentially top 10 wins as well.
So Iowa could drop to #6 (or stay at #5). Meanwhile Utah could move up to #7-#8 if they win out.
So UM would face #5-6 Iowa and Stanford would meet #7 or #8 Utah.
Those are basically coin toss games and toin coss rankings - and style points would matter.
Say Stanford wins 31-17 and UM wins 23-20 in champ games. That will pose an issue. I mean it's going to come down to that sort of thing at the end if this plays out that way. (i.e. UM wins out, Stanford wins out, OSU beats MSU)
November 18th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
I wrote "displacing Notre Dame if they lose to Stanford..."
November 17th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
my thoughts exactly.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 1:55 AM ^
Not alot of upsets are needed. A 2-loss Michigan with two wins over top 10-15 teams (Iowa, OSU) and another win over a top 20-25 team (Northwestern) would have a better resume than a 1-loss Big 12 team not named Oklahoma. Basically, all you need is OK State to lose a game to either Baylor or Oklahoma, Oklahoma to lose to TCU or OK State, and Northwestern to win at least win 1 more game so they don't fall out of the top 25.
Michigan would then be vying for a spot against a 1-loss OK State or TCU/Baylor, each of which can only produce two top 10-15 wins.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:18 AM ^
MSU losing to OSU wouldn't be an upset.
Florida losing to Alabama wouldn't be an upset.
Oklahoma St. still has to play Baylor and OU.
Stanford and ND have to play so one of them is getting one more loss.
The biggest upsets that have to happen if you go by rankings is probably UM beating OSU and Iowa.
November 18th, 2015 at 1:58 AM ^
The two 2-loss teams they still give a fighting chance of making the playoffs--Stanford and Michigan at 11% and 9%--both have a fighting chance of winning their conferences. (Stanford, in fact, controls it's own destiny in that regard.)
Should we win out, we don't need total chaos, just the right dash of it in two of the other five "leagues".
November 17th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
That being said, if UM wins out and big 12 beats each other, UM has a chance. But given the love to BU and TCU that's going to be hard cause I think OU is going to win out. We'll see.
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:37 PM ^
What are NW fans saying then?
What about Utah fans?
Both are behind teams they beat.
It's not just head to head anymore - they are looking at a host of things and making judgement calls.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:27 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
Both Oregon and NW are ranked - hence those are quality losses if you will. Just because you arent ranked when you lose to them doesnt mean its not a quality loss. Thats why you play the season - you have no idea who is truly good when the game is played in week 3 or week 1.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
below
Ordered from Most Likely to Least Likely
and spreads noted for this week (fav/(dog)
• #4 Notre Dame 9-1
• v BC 11/21 (16.5)
• @ #11 Stanf 8-2 11/28
• PAC 12
• #11 Stanf 8-2
• v Cal 11/21 (11)
• v #4 ND 9-1 11/28
• v SouthChamp 12/05
• #13 Utah 8-2
• v UCLA 11/21 (2)
• v Colo 11/28
• v NorthChamp 12/05
• #24 USC owns head-to-head over Utah
• USC and Utah are tied at 5-2
• USC finishes against
• @ #23 Oregon 11/21 (4)
• v UCLA 11/28
• Big 12
• #6 OkSt 10-0
• v #10 Bayl 11/21 PK
• v #7 Okla 9-1 11/28
• #7 Okla 9-1
• v #18 TCU 11/21 off
• @ #6 OkSt 11/28
• #10 Bayl 9-1
• @ #6 OkSt 11/21 PK
• @ #18 TCU 11/27
• v Texas 12/05
• #18 TCU 9-1
• @ #7 Okla 11/21 off
• v #10 Bayl 11/27
• ACC
• #1 Clem 10-0
• v Wake 11/21 (30)
• @ SCar 11/28
• v CoastalChamp 12/05
• #17 UNC 9-1
• @ VT 11/21 (6.5)
• @ NCSt 11/28
• v Clem (CCG) 12/05
• SEC
• #2 Bama 9-1
• v CharlestonSo 11/21 off
• @ Aub 11/28
• v Fla (CCG) 12/05
• #8 Fla 9-1
• v FAU 11/21 (31)
• v FSU 11/28
• v WestChamp 12/05
November 17th, 2015 at 10:54 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:00 PM ^
Someone should write a diary about it...
(self promotion)
November 17th, 2015 at 11:39 PM ^
Good idea. (Hey, wait a minute..)
November 17th, 2015 at 11:02 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:31 PM ^
Two of those wins are against FCS foes and that one loss is to South Carolina who is not great this year.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:31 PM ^
Two of those wins are against FCS foes and that one loss is to South Carolina who is not great this year.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:31 PM ^
They won't. They'd take Clemson's spot though. It's moot. ACC gets 1 spot either way. They are not taking two ACC teams from a conf deemed 4th or 5th best of the P5.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:40 PM ^
That winning streak isn't that impressive once you factor in the auto-wins
With current Sagarin ratings of opponents noted:
L v 17-13 #61 S Carolina (in Charlotte)
W v 53-14 #137 NC A&T
W v 48-14 #68 Illinois
W v 41-14 #195 Delaware
W @ 38-31 #45 GaTech
W v 50-14 #93 Wake
W v 26-13 #74 UVa
W @ 26-18 #30 Pitt
W v 66-31 #52 Duke
W v 59-21 #54 Miami (YTM)
November 17th, 2015 at 11:41 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
I wouldn't be that surprised to see the ACC get passed over if UNC wins out, and it may be the correct move for the committee.
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:03 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^