Week 12 Polls & Ratings: AP #14, Coaches #13

Submitted by Leaders And Best on

Your Week 12 Thread for all polls, rankings, and computer ratings discussion. Will update as they come in.

AP Poll #14:  http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

Coaches Poll #13: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/

F/+ #6: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+ #5: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FEI #10: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Massey Ratings #22: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FBS

Sagarin Ratings #12 (#9 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

ESPN FPI #17: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

 

Michigan's team statistical profile:

Football Study Hall: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-michigan-advanced-statistical-profile

ESPN FPI: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2015

Massey Ratings: http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=279541

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CompleteLunacy

November 15th, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^

I hope everyone learned their lesson from the Bama-LSU rematch snoozefest. Nobody wants a rematch except the fans of the team that lost. I want to see the best teams from around the country play each other. Teams who generally haven't played each other yet. And I hope the committee has this mindset too...But since ND feels the need to be speshul, they are getting speshul treatment.  And I think it's bullshit. 

Joined: 11/13/2010

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ijohnb

November 15th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^

Any undefeated team from the Big 12 is in. I like Stanford at home against ND anyway. My guess it is going to be SEC champ, ACC champ, BIG champ, Big 12 undefeated champ. Join a conference ND. Not "kind of." Actually do it. And all this talk about how bad we were against Indiana. Fellas, everybody almost loses to Indiana. It is like a tradition now.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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CompleteLunacy

November 15th, 2015 at 6:52 PM ^

Notre Dame almost lost to Virginia. TCU almost lost to Texas Tech, and played like crap against Kansas (I know Boykin went down...but still, Kansas might be worse than every single opponent Michigan has played this year). Okie State almost lost to Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas State. Alabama almost lost to Tennessee. Florida almost lost to lowly Vanderbilt...VANDERBILT! Oklahoma DID lose to Texas. Clemson only beat Louisville by 3, and Syracuse by 10. Ohio State almost lost to Northern Illinois, in addition to a close game with Indiana. Baylor still hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. Sparty has Purdue and Indiana and Rutgers. Iowa only won by 5 against Minny, in addition to a close game with Indiana.

So yeah, I think people are overreacting to one game. Everyone has games like that against overmatched opponents. Everyone. There's a reason why the term "survive and advance" exists in sports. Because while we all hope our team plays its absolute best each week, it NEVER works out that way. Being human and all that. 

I think Indiana was the perfect storm for the defense. They had employed the two-safety against previous spread teams to great effect. It was a huge vulnerability against Indiana partially because INdiana was better equipped to exploit the weakness, but also because Glasgow went down and our DL is suddenly lacking depth. But...they came out of it with a win. And that's all that matters!

Joined: 11/13/2010

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michelin

November 15th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^

OSU has played ZERO games vs top 30 teams (sagarin)

Highest ranked opponent is #39 PSU

Granted the SOS will change in the next two weeks, but the record may change too.  

The Coaches' and AP polls  should consider that.  They are supposed to rank teams based on the strength of the records TODAY.

 

Note: Since Sagarin lists aggregate results vs top 30, not trop25 teams, I used the top 30 to denote "ranked" teams.

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SMart WolveFan

November 15th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^

....a one loss ND team and a one loss B12 team to each other in december as a one off play in game!

 

Or just make it Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and MICHIGAN and make it all about the coaches.

(Not really I wish it was about the players) But since college football has already sold out to the ad $$ and we know the Dabo, Herbz, Saban, Harbaugh playoff week might be more entertaining than some of the games.

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Vasav

November 15th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

Back in the good ol' BCS days I'd root for chaos outside of Michigan's chances. So in that vein, I'm rooting for Stanford to beat ND and then lose in the P12 title to 3-loss SC while OU wins the B12, and Florida wins the SEC after losing to Florida St. Us winning the B1G adds to the chaos. Heck it could get even crazier if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl and Clemson loses to the 'Cocks. But now I'm just being silly.

That'd leave the playoffs looking something like: OU, Florida, M and Houston. Maybe. That'd be fun.

Joined: 12/13/2009

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goblue16

November 15th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^

Michigans road to the playoff is simple. Win out (obviously), ND lose to Stanford, Clemson wins ACC, and OSU beats MSU. The question mark is UNC. if they beat Clemson and end up 12-1 and Clemosn ands up 12-1 and say ND ends up 11-1 which is all possible, does that mean 3 ACC teams (sort of) in the playoff?

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ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

ND is going to find it very difficult to stay in front of OK if they win out and will not stay in front of OK St if they do.  

In your example I think Clemson would be out.  There has to be some value to a conference title game.

Joined: 09/02/2011

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Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

I don't think there is any question an undefeated Okla St. would get in. I think the debate starts with a one-loss Big 12 champ (most likely Oklahoma) versus a one-loss ND. The one unique part in this is that ND destroyed Texas in the first game of the season, and Oklahoma lost to Texas. I think Oklahoma would be the better team if they win out, but I'm not sure how they would leave out ND especially if USC & Stanford both make the P12 championship game.

Still a lot of football left to be played though so not sure how deep it's worth analyzing this at this point.

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Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^

Not saying I agree with it. But there are merits to ND's case especially if you add the P12 results into the mix. If the P12 championship game was today, it would be USC vs. Stanford. ND plays/played both of these teams. If USC and Stanford win out in the P12, that would be a huge feather in ND's cap--almost like a conference championship.

And it's not like Texas has been that much better with Jerrod Heard at QB. It was a fluke game though because almost every good Big 12 team has beaten Texas.

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ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

Swoopes was completing 47% of his passes which is awful. Its a big difference.  Also Utah should be still considered the favourite to come out of the south.  USC has to go at Oregon which usually doesn't end well for them.

Joined: 09/02/2011

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Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^

Swoopes has 56 pass attempts on the season. 22 of them came in the Notre Dame game.

Texas just got blown out by Iowa State and West Virginia in 2 of their last 3 games. Are they better with Jerrod Heard at QB? Yes. So maybe they lose by 4 TDs instead of 5 TDs against ND. Texas is still a terrible football team. The combined records of the 3 teams they beat outside of Oklahoma (Rice, Kansas St, & Kansas) against FBS competition is 5-22 with no wins against any Power 5 schools. Jerrod Heard vs. Tyrone Swoopes is not really the issue here.

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SMart WolveFan

November 15th, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^

......is totally fucked.

 

And the ripple effect into other conferences is just as bad, look at Oklahoma, their game against a 4 loss Tennessee gives them a 16 for strength of scedule as oppossed to Ok. St. which has a 43 S.O.S. and plays mostly the same teams.

 

But I guess I would expect some SEC bias from Massey but where does the P12 bias come from?

O right: over rated UCLA and boozy USC.

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Swazi

November 15th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

Coaches poll is worthless. TCU jumping Michigan is a joke. I don't care about them having one loss. They struggled against the worst program in the FBS.



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LSAClassOf2000

November 15th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

I find that slightly amusing that we come out ahead of Iowa on Sagarin's updates (Iowa is down at #20 on PREDICTOR), but it is interesting that we sit right next to them in Schedule rating. 

The Massey number for Michigan surprised me a little bit, and the ratings update also drops our estimated win probability against Ohio State to 33% and against PSU to 62%.

 

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