|05/28/2018 - 9:31pm||There are many nice places to live in this area||
We had a place in Brookline within walking distance of the Longwood Medical Area: the old Free Hospital for Women, which had been converted into condos. It was along the riverway, not far from Brookline Village.
I later took a position in the “deep south”—at Brown. So we moved to Providence, RI. It’s quieter and less expensive than Boston. It’s also on the Amtrak and commuter rail routes. So, when we go to Boston, I can work during the commute and save 2-3 hours. Also on this route are some nice residential communities—e.g., Sharon, Mansfield---which border the Patriots’ home in Foxborough.
Ann Arbor is still my favorite place, but a close second is the greater Boston area (including Providence).
|05/25/2018 - 5:09pm||This argument strengthens UM's position||
This argument seems to reinforce, not detract, from UM's inclusion in the top 10. UM is the only state school in this list. It should have the lowest family income of the bunch, yet still produces a lot of billionaires.*
*A statistical procedure* could in theory correct for the effects on family income on a student's subsequent financial success. The ideal procedure would be a within-subject analysis. Also, to have enough relevant data points, it would probably need to include sub-billionaires---or, better yet, include everyone. The result could help assess just how much each school's degree--whether via education. "halo" effects, social networking, or other factors--impacts a graduate's income.
|04/25/2018 - 1:43pm||duplicate: mods please delete||
mods please delete
|04/25/2018 - 12:59pm||why so many assaults?||
It's good to see this article cite not merely gymnastics and, now, volleyball, but also the MSU FB nd BB programs.
Although I understand the NCAA is investigating MSU gymnastics, I wonder if they will get around to looking at FB and BB too.
Also, it's not just a failure of MSU to report or seriously investigate the sexual assaults. You need to ask why so many assaults are occuring in the first place. Is it just the culture--as is commonly diiscussed? Or is it more (eg PEDs)?
|04/17/2018 - 6:41pm||Your argument is nonsense||
Even the pope gets death threats
|04/06/2018 - 12:36pm||SEC made a decision (rubber stamped by the NCAA)||
to ban UM from practicing in France. They think Louisiana is still part of France, which is therefore clearly in SEC territory. They remain unaware that Napoleon sold Louisiana to the US in 1800
(not to mention the fact that the Louisiana purchase also included B10 regions like Iowa and parts of Minnesota).
|02/13/2018 - 1:28pm||Big impact||
This is one of the few times when vacating wins really matters.
|12/31/2017 - 9:35pm||247 crystal ball is 17% cloudy||
with a chance of meatballs....
|12/14/2017 - 11:24am||You provide a great example||
You provide a great example showing how the RPI violates a fundamental principle of rational ranking. Winning over a lowly ranked team provides no negative information about a team's quality. Other than decreasing the schedule of relevant games played by one, it is at worst irrelelevant.
But I thought that the RPI was being phased out this year by the committee. It's astonishingly stupid that they kept using it this long.
|12/10/2017 - 10:45pm||There's more than one way to skin a troll||
Raising the number of points and/or duration of participation sounds fine to me. Another way to weed out trolls is to post an edited summary of their "contributions". The mods can then do whatever they think appropriate.
|08/23/2017 - 10:11am||I see your points. But the Celts look at the bigger picture||
1. Thomas' age, contract, and medical condition. As you noted, Thoman had a serious hip injury that sidelined him at the season's end. Perhaps the Celtics know something about its long-term impact on his game. In any case, Thomas is older than Irving, who fits better with the developmental stage of the team now. Also, Thomas becomes free agent after next year and has announced he wants the "Brinks Trucks" to come to his door--ie he wants a max deal that the Celts may be unable or unwilling to give him.. So he may be a one year rental who is struggling with a lingering injury. By contrast, Irving has an acceptable two-year deal, and the Celts feel they can get him to renew.
2. The 2018-9 draftsand beyond.. The Nets division is prediicted to have more company toward the bottom of the league standings this year, (ESPN predicts they will be among ten bottom teams within 3-4 wins of each other*). And the Nets are not predicted to be in the bottom 3. That's one reason why the Celts preferred to give up the Nets pick in lieu of their other 2018 pick. It's one from the Lakers, who are predicted to be a lottery team again.*. The Lakers pick for the Celts will either be 2-5 next year or an unprotected pick from Sacramento the year following. Sacto is predicted next year to be in a virtual tie for the worst team in the NBA in 2018 and it's likely they will continue to suck in 2019. That draft is predicted to be the strongest one in a long time. .
Finally, the Celtics have far more draft picks than they can possibly use in the next few years---including up to 5 first rounders and at least that many 2nd rounders in the next two years. They absolutely needed to unload some bodies. And in doing so, they got a 4-time all star in the early prime of his career. Certainly, they gave up a lot to get him, but now you see the reasons why.
|08/21/2017 - 8:40pm||Factorials are just a way to make math look exciting||
|07/17/2017 - 10:54am||OP (Heywood Jablome) is an OSU troll||
He is trying to set UM up and make us look bad when the recruit commits. Just look at the abundance of negative comments he made vs UM and for OSU in the past 6 months:
Michigan is not on the same level as Harvard or MIT...sorry to burst your bubble.
If Spielman sat on the bench his entire time at OSU, this lawsuit would never get filed, and he would have walked away with a free education. But since he had a successful career now he wants his image back from the school that already compensated him in the form of a scholarship?
The UM degree is very good if you're a general student who got in on your own merits, but not necessairly for football players who get funneled into easy majors in order to stay eligible ...which makes it hard to get a job after football.
I'll give OSU credit for at least trying to give their football players an option if pro-football doesn't work out. Their "real life Wednesdays" are something that should be modeled by more schools.
Difference is OSU usually loses to someone that sneaks up on them... As long as Meyer is there, winning that game is going to be 50/50 at best....and probably worse than that many years.
So a 50/50 call that could have gone either way and suddenly you're counting that as a win? .. Coaching was terrible in the 2nd half...that fact just gets glossed over.
We were the more talented and experienced team and should have won...that's on the coaches, not the refs.
A Take off the homer glasses. Oklahoma has 7 national titles in the modern era. Michigan has 3. They also dominated decades like the 50's and 70's. And were still really good in the 2000s. Michigan has never dominated a decade outside 1900-1910. i.e. no one is alive that can remember it.
Oklahoma is also like #2 (behind only OSU) for #1 AP appearance.
The Brady Hoke hire told you all you needed to know about where Michigan really ranks on the list of most coveted football jobs (hint: it's not in the top 5). If Harbaugh didn't play here, there is no way we land someone like that. Some people on here need to look at things more objectively.
nd we lost to Ohio State, so how does that make us look?
Why does this always happen to us? Always a brides maid and never a bride.
At the talent level OSU recruits, kids are concerned with the NFL. Plain and simple.
Uh yeah. Because he'd be riding the pine at OSU.
Harbaugh is the best coach we could realistically have. That said, the people who put him up there with Meyer and Saban and just plain homers.
Harbaugh reminds me a lot of Bo. Unfortunately, seems like that includes choking in big bowl games too.
Did the Unabomber come back and get a M degree after he was arrested?
|04/26/2017 - 11:18am||When will the NCAA ban gifts to the pope?||
Having God on your side(line) would be an unfair advantage in recruiting and actual games.
|03/12/2017 - 12:56pm||Technical explanation of standardized win pct||
Since committees tend to look at “best wins” (as well as “worst losses”), it is interesting to compare teams win pct vs top 25 teams.
If UM beats WIsc today, it would be a the 4th best team in the nation (#1 seed accoding to standardized win pct) (ie controlled for differences in the number of such games played per Sagarin).
Currently, there are 3 teams tied for 4th best win pct vs top 25 teams. UM is 4-2, Duke 8-4, Cinci 2-1. Based on playing twice as many teams as UM and 4 times as many for CInci, Duke would today have the highest standardized win pct. But Duke has already played all its games.
What happens If UM and Cinci both wins their conference tourney today—making UM 5-2 and Cinci 3-1? Then the best team is UM followed by Duke, then Cinci.
UM 5-2 mean win proportion .714 Std error .17 Mean/Std error =4.2
|03/12/2017 - 12:52pm||UM a #5 seed?||
Starting next year, the RPI (with UM now #8) will be toast and ratings like KenPom will figure prominently. You would think that the committee will now recognize the RPI’s limitations. So it might be wise to look at a broader range of polls.
UM rank (before today’s game is: #6 KenPom and Massey, #7 Sagarin.
A win today clearly would make us #6 in Sagarin (who has us now as the 25th ranked team). It should also probable help us up there in a larger--but much lower quality--composite poll index (in which we are now among the first four out of the #6 seed).
Could UM possibly argue for the #5 seed? Yes, if the committee strongly weighs "best wins."
Astonishingly, with a win today, we would be a #1 seed according to the (standardized) win pct vs the top 25 teams (see technical post below) . This may be at least somewhat relevant, as committees tend to look at “best wins” (as well as “worst losses”),
Since the NCAA selection committee is still chaired by the MSU AD, the weight placed on best wins may not be as great as it should be, however. Also, the MSU AD may want to ignore computer polls like Massey
---which has MSU among the 1st four teams OUT of the NCAA tourney.
|02/10/2017 - 9:33pm||I was responding to your suggestion||
that the ""bestest coaches would have championships." I did not agree with that.
Now you seem to make a very different argument---ie, that the best coaches have the highest win pct. Fair enough. Of course, there are coaches on this list who "bought" their wins by sacrificing principles---turning a blind eye to booster payments, drug use, crime....some of their players even graduated to murder.
Bo did not do that. So, I think he ranks above some of the coaches on your list. He developed young men---in fact, men like Jim Harbaugh,
Incidentally, if we want to consider just win pct, as depicted in your chart, Harbaugh was one of the four winningest coaches in modern NFL history: only Lombardi, Allen, and Madden were better. On your chart, Saban is at the top in your list but at the highest level of competition, he did not even have a winning record.
Saban, I think, is still one of the best coaches. My only point is that we need to consider in a lot more in judging what coach is best.
|02/10/2017 - 8:39pm||In a sense, they were arguing against their own prior analysis||
As I recall, their previous analysis gave Super Bowls about 100x the weight of a regular season game. Ironically, that is how some people view success.
Their present analysis gives us another perspective. I agree that it short changes coaches like Belichick. But it does avoid the mistake of valuing a championship above all else.
For example, it would have been unreasonable to expect that from JH's 49ers, when they had not even reached the playoffs in nearly a decade. (The same would be true for JH's college stints. It would have been unreasonable to expect a national title from any coach at San Diego or Stanford --which never won an AP national title---and whose last arguable claim to a title was more than thee quarters of a century ago).
|02/10/2017 - 7:18pm||You would probably agree that Bo was one of the best ever||
Yet he never won a national title.
|02/10/2017 - 6:58pm||Could a similar method be used to rank college coaches?||
I would love to see a broader analysis done to compare college head coaches. How much did they contribute to their team's success, after accounting for the talent they had coming in--as well as what they started with?* Harbaugh would probably also rate very highly in this college ranking. He was unbelievably successful with minimally rated recruits at San Diego and Stanford--teams that, like the 49ers, had not won anything in ages.
*It might be trickier to also account for a coach's impact on player development, but that might be done with a time series model that looks at successive stages of players' records from freshman to senior years.
|02/10/2017 - 6:43pm||Harbaugh, Belichick and Brady||
With a 49ers team that had not even reached the playoffs in nearly a decade, Harbaugh took his team to the NFC title game in 3 consecutive years. (As an assistant also, he coached Rich Gannon to an NFL MVP and SB appearance). Granted, he did not win the SB he reached—because his brother did---but he only coached 4 years.
By contrast, Belichick was an NFL HC for his first 6 seasons without any more than one playoff appearance (which his team lost in the first round). He did not win a SB until Brady became starting QB.
To be sure, Belichick is a brilliant coach---maybe the best NFL coach of all time. But to win a record 5 SBs, you also need the greatest QB of all time. And that is Brady.
|01/28/2017 - 10:52am||UM #1 in Super Bowl MVPs||
UM #1 in Super Bowl MVPs and could get another next week
|01/24/2017 - 12:49pm||Bagmen in the south||
The video below shows a truly astonishing interview with a journalist that studied bagmen IN THE SOUTH. While he does not directly address the OP's question,
He estimates that there, the percent of players payed by bagmen is
100% for 5*s,
80% for 4*s
These shockingly extreme estimates may reflect the journalist's overconfidence. But they do suggest why, if you go to a school in the south and are a 5*, you won't talk about $$ offered by other schools. It's highly likely that you are now taking $$ from your own school.
|01/24/2017 - 12:08pm||The need for broader measures: Pts 4-5 Game and Content analysis||
4. Game theory
In recruiting, we must not just pursue recruits according to their value, the chance of getting them, and the resources required to do so. We must consider the constraints in time, money and class size of our competitors. We also must consider possibly misleading information about their “offers.” To misdirect its competitor, a school may get their own best and solid commitments to remain “silent commitments” and express false interest in another school. They may also “offer” a recruit merely to elevate his apparent value. Such attempts at misdirection can get competitors to drain their resources by pursuing poorer quality recruits or high quality ones that are very unlikely to flip.
Possibly, we might identify such schools by analyzing why certain schools end up not getting players who (according to the NU analysis) had a high probability of commitment. Such schools may be more likely to have rescinded offers. Also, military, economic and many other analysts have developed methods based on game theory to help analyze a competition---not unlike our competition with other schools for recruits.
5. Content Analysis
In recruiting, there is a lot of soft information not captured by the NU prediction tool. We often are influenced by crystal balls, the words of analysts and even those spoken by the recruit and family. When we merely hear these words, it is often hard to gauge their meaning (or lack thereof). So they can instill false optimism and unnecessary use of resources. Or they may lead to false pessimism and insufficient resource use. All too often, the words present a lot of meaningless noise. But analytic methods have sometimes distilled meaningful signals from similar noise. Advertisers and financial analysts may do content analyses of positive or negative or neutral words. In recruiting, such analyses could include many factors that influence their significance, such as when the words were spoken (e.g., before or after a visit).
|01/24/2017 - 12:06pm||The need for broader measures: Pt 2-3: Advertising and Networks||
2. Advertising effects.
A hidden value may emerge from pursuing a low probability/low quality recruit or having a camp in a region rich in more valuable recruits. The same applies to many other possible efforts to increase visibility—like a “sigining of the stars” event, a camp in Samoa, or even or a trip with the team to Rome. Many methods in advertising attempt to quantify the value of increasing visibility and brand awareness using various types of advertising.
3. Social network analysis
Having a close friend on one’s HS team who is committed or has interest in a particular school can powerfully influence some players to join him. Sometimes then, it makes sense to recruit the friend to attract the target player. It may also make sense to take a middling recruit from a “pipeline” school—one that has or will have other, more valuable players in the future. Hiring a coach from such a school may also work. One may even hire coach who is the parent or other relative of a valuable recruit. Many social science methods exist to assess influence networks, and such methods could help design more effective recruiting strategies.
|01/24/2017 - 12:03pm||The need for broader measures: Part 1: Resource Allocation||
The NU prediction tool seems to have value. But it is only a very crude prediction tool, and the task coaches face is not simply prediction. It is a broader decision problem that must consider many other factors—some easier and some harder to analyze but all of them addressed by existing methods. In the next 5 sections, I mention a few of these. At the very least, these sections should illustrate how complex the recruiting problem is. Ideally, however, I hope that a student here may apply one of the methods listed (possibly with financial assistance from the AD).
1. Resource Allocation and Cost-effectivess/cost utility Analysis
Successful recruiting requires us to consider not just the likelihood of the recruit committing but also the money and time needed to pursue him. That pursuit decreases the resources that could be used on other players. In addition to considering the chance a recruit will commit (NU method), we need to consider his quality and whether he fits position needs now or in the uncertain future, as well as the sometimes uncertain constraints of class size. Operations researchers have extensively studied how to allocate limited resources within such constraints (e.g., money and time).
|01/01/2017 - 5:14pm||Sagarin ratings predict the actual outcomes of future games||
If that is non-"sense", then please prove to us why your own subjective "sense" is better.
|01/01/2017 - 1:59pm||Sarcasm aside: Sagarin ratings consider far more than two passes||
I agree with your point that we have a way to go. Nowhere did I say thet UM would outrank Ala or Clemson this year. In fact, the Sagarin ratings confirm we would still be below them. That would still be the case, even with my added corrections.
|01/01/2017 - 1:47pm||That is a common point of view||
But Sagarin already considers that. And I think his view adds something to the discussion.
|01/01/2017 - 1:05pm||All based on objective Sagarin ratings||
except for the in-state home field and OT corrections, which were highly conservative. If you disagree with these corrections, tell us why.
|12/13/2016 - 12:13pm||I said 3 SB MVPs||
The 4th SB he won but his WR Deion Branch got the MVP (probably because the NFL committee thought TB had already won too many awards himself). Branch did not later distinguish himself when he left the pats and TB was no longer throwing to him.
|12/13/2016 - 10:03am||2nd hand rumor from an OSU guy and spread by Cowherd||
Harbaugh rumors based on one second hand quote that was later walked back.
The person spreading the rumor—Cowherd—has had widely publicized conflicts with JH.
The person originating the rumor--Breer--not only comes from OSU but also previously smeared UM alums while praising OSU players. He praised ex OSU QB Braxton Miller, who had not even gotten a single NFL first down until Nov 13.. Meanwhile, he spread negative rumors about Tom Brady, who won 3 super bowl and 2 NFL MVP awards and holds at least 22 NFL all-time records. Nearly 3 years ago, Breer spread rumors that Tom Brady might “be on the clock” for replacement by his backup.
How did that rumor turn out, Albert?
|12/07/2016 - 11:51am||Speculation about Zak Irvin's back||
I have noticed a change in zak irvin’s jump shot between HS and college. He seemed more upright in HS.
But in college he has adopted a more bent posture (i.e.,flexion between his legs and back at about a 20 degree angle).
This posture change could have slowed his development a bit. To some extent, it could also reduce his height advantage and put his shot closer to the defender.
So I wonder if his bent posture is due to continuing pain after his 2015 back surgery. Or maybe it is a correctable bad habit developed when he did have back pain. To relieve disk pressure on nerves from the spinal cord, many people find it less painful if they are in a bent posture.
|12/04/2016 - 1:34pm||Moreover, consider the irony.||
The only coach who actually was part of the PSU cover up is now defensive coordinator at OSU (Schiano). This reprobate's current team will probably be in the playoff and supplant PSU even though his current team lost to PSU and, unlike PSU, failed to win the conference.
Maybe this is poetic justice for the institution--PSU.
But where is the justice for OSU--the team that kept a guy who--according to sworn testimony-- failed to report child abuse to the authorities?
|12/04/2016 - 10:50am||In a playoff based on the sagarin poll (not a biased committee)||
#1 vs #4 would be Ala vs Wash. #2 vs #3 would be OSU vs UM .
So, rather than just accepting a highly controversial and biased double OT decision for Ohio vs UM, we would be able to find out who is really best. UM would play OSU using neutral referees on neutral field (and presumably with a healthier UM QB).
|11/01/2016 - 9:27am||Two interesting facts||
1. Re: the crying about targeting:
2. Re: MSU and concussions:
(By mistake, I clicked on this freep link and was surprised to find something negative about MSU rather than UM. But this material was buried toward the article's end and its inclusion was probably just an editorial slip-up)
|10/07/2016 - 2:40pm||Conversation before the fight||
JH: I'm gonna mop up the floor with your face.
Urban: You'll be sorry.
JH: Oh yeah, why?
Urban: Well, you won't be able to get into the corners very well.
|10/07/2016 - 2:34pm||I agree with you but wanted to clarify one point||
You use the word "crazy" in a good way but not everyone takes it that way. People mean different things when they use the word: "crazy".
JH always seems to have a purpose behind his unusual acts. His detractors--people like the SEC commentators-- like to call his behavior "crazy". But many players--who don't want to be like everyone else--seem to appreciate JH's nonconformity. In fact, it's a trait that the winningest NFL coaches have had (eg Lombardi, Madden).
Unfortunately, the word, "crazy" is also often taken in a pejorative way to refer to diagnosable problems--the kind treated by Urban Meyer's wife--a psychiatric nurse. Recently, she and Urban described his battles with sedative addiction, depression, and anxiety--the latter of which may be confused with "heart attacks". But it also would be wrong to use the term "crazy" to refer to these not uncommon human vulnerabilities. In fact, there was a lot of praise here for the open revelation of these disorders by Urban and his wife.
|09/25/2016 - 10:27am||Mike Dantonio||
"Mike Dantonio vanishes into thin air".
That is the link's title right now on USA today's front page. (it is about half way down on the page, if you want to see it)
|08/08/2016 - 5:21pm||Probably for the reason you note||
OSU AD Gene Smith is violently opposed to Cinci. If they joined the Big12, then OSU would find itself between a major rival to the north and an in-state competitor to the south (which would also draw recruiting interest from Oklahoma, Texas, and other Big 12 schools).
|08/08/2016 - 3:06pm||He was offered by Alabama||
and other big name schools.
|08/08/2016 - 2:56pm||Shadenfreude alert||
According to a very unhappy MSU blog, he would have been the highest rated recruit for the Spartans.
|07/22/2016 - 10:18am||Why you need a full set of irons||
A golfer once sliced his ball down a steep embankment into a ravine. He took his 8 iron and climbed down. There he discovered an eight iron in the hands of a skeleton.
"Bring me my 7 iron. You can't get out of here with an 8."
|07/12/2016 - 2:30pm||Schiano is one of the 2 main recruiters for Shaun Wade||
He's also in charge of recruiting a number of other top prospects.
|06/23/2016 - 1:32pm||Affleck does echo the outrage over the NFL's abuse of power||
But perhaps due to his mental state, he misses many essential points. Most importantly, every scientist known to have examined this data since has concluded --not that the balls were deflated 8%--but essentially nil. The halftime PSI of the Patriots’ footballs was consistent with the Ideal Gas Law.
For a more comprehensive discussion of many other issues see the link below (which is already well-known to most of us).
|06/18/2016 - 1:56pm||after 11 holes,Mueller still in contention for top amateur medal||
At +10, he is 3 back of the leader and tied with AA Native Wilkes-krier.
The current #1 and #2 amateurs are done playing. So Mueller (like WIlkes-Krier) has 7 holes to pick up 3 strokes to win (tie for) the top amateur medal.
He needs to make up 4 strokes to make the current cut line at +6.
|05/10/2016 - 1:30pm||UM tied for #5 in title odds per CBS sports||
The odds below reflect not just the strength of teams but their chances of winning it all given their schedules.
|05/06/2016 - 12:42pm||Actually, Columbus did use this map.||
That's why he got lost in the ocean, thought he'd found India, but--according to a buckeye alum--actually landed in the capitol of Ohio.
|04/28/2016 - 7:37pm||The satellite camp ban was one symptom of an NCAA problem||
that will continue, unless the NCAA is forced to be more transparent
With the satellite camps, the bad press and the DOJ threatened to expose the NCAA. We began to discern the non-representative and self-interested dealmaking that has long corrupted the NCAA.
But there is so much more. Witness the often-too-secret deliberations of the enforcement committee. Why on earth is it now led by the head of--what many think--is the most corrupt league in the country?
(Perhaps this is a rhetorical question)
|04/25/2016 - 8:00pm||What the DOJ seeks to determine seems obviously true:||
The ban harms prospective student athletes.
While it is always gratifying to see that something which is completely obvious can be proven, I hope that the DOJ will also study deeper issues.
Why would the NCAA committee vote to restrict student opportunities? Did members seek to profit by restraining competition? Also, did the big money making schools essentially buy off the lesser conferences votes? For example, did they pay them multimillion dollar fees to play one-off games at the bigger school's stadiums?
If profiteering was a main motive for the NCAA ban, then would that not be a problem for the tax-exempt status of committee members' schools--indeed, for the NCAA itself? They claim to be non-profit institutions.