FiveThirtyEight CFP Odds
FiveThirtyEight has updated their odds for the playoffs (and conference/national championship) to account for yesterday's games. They will update it again on Tuesday night.
Michigan's chances jumped from 7% last week to 9%. I thought the odds would be a bit higher because literally everything fell in place yesterday night except for BYU losing. However, Penn State on the road is no gimme and FPI has OSU favored so that would explain that.
However the odds of winning the conference (14%) and so if Michigan wins out, there is a 9/14 or 64% chance that UM goes to the playoffs.
Like I said last week, FiveThirtyEight had TCU with a 90% chance of making the playoffs and gave OSU a 40% chance and we know what happened.
Link: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/booming-sooners-updated-college-foo…
November 15th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
If the DL and LBers don't improve dramatically there's no way we're getting past PSU with a W.
All this playoff talk is nuts to me. If this is how we're going to play then OSU will hang 40+ on us and I'm pretty sure our offense can keep pace with that even with Good Rudock. OSU's D is not IU's D.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
they also haven't won a game in the B1G. people here can't point ot how MSU and OSU barely beat IU and draw the conclusion that they aren't as good as people thought, yet refuse to do the same for us when we played IU worse than MSU or OSU
November 15th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
Indiana played without Howard and Sudfeld for about half of the OSU game. So yeah OSU did play worse against them.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
I think IU would be a pretty good team with an average D.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
The fluke is that Indiana stumbled upon 2 NFL grade O-linemen and an elite running back by way of transfer. Indiana's not supposed to have that stuff!
November 15th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
Yes, but not without justification.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
A road win in the P5 is always a good win.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
Especially after watching Hoke and Richrod flounder on the road for 7 years
November 15th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Typo, meant to say CAN'T keep pace*
November 15th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
IU's offense is really good. MN is not a slouch either. Look what they did to IOWA. Because teams have bad record, we assume that teams shouldn't play us close. The Almighty Alabama lost to Ole Miss. Is there a concern? Yes. But, it doesn't mean we can't get better or even win with what we have. IU's offense was clicking against OSU, until their QB and RB left the game.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
People are crazily overrating PSU. They've played well once this year, against a mediocre Illinois team.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
usually comes out late Sunday afternoon (barring a "hold" because of injury uncertainties).
November 15th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
I would much rather win out, win the B1G and just miss out on the CFP. I fear we would get embarrassed against the other top 4 teams, like ND did against Alabama in the NC.
If a B1G championship and a bowl game against someone like Stanford or Florida is an option, I would take it.
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
Are you fucking serious? You don't want to make the playoff becase "you don't think we have a shot against the top 4." If Michigan beats Ohio State they can beat anyone in the country. There is no dominant team in college football this year. And we have Jim harbaugh, who will have our boys ready to play against anyone. This is such a losers mentaltiy and is one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this blog. You don't want to make the playoff? What the fuck is wrong with you. Jim Harbaugh would slap the shit out of you if he ever heard a Michigan fan talk like this. Pathetic.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^
Ohio St isn't top 4 caliber either. OSU would get run by Alabama or Clemson right now, so to say that if we beat OSU, we can beat anyone in the top 4 is not true. The game against Ohio St is a rivalry game, so crazy things happen (see the last 3 years).
Do you objectively thing UM can beat Alabama right now with the way this team is playing? Didn't this blog destroy ND and their fans the year they got lit up in the NC game?
Sure, making the CFP is worth it for recruiting and "any given sunday" but I'm just looking at it objectively. We're not at that level this year and that's OKAY.
Players have to have a different mentality than fans. I'm a fan, I don't have to have the "WE CAN BEAT ANYONE CUZ HARBAUGH SAYS WE CAN!!!" mentality. I can look at it objectively and say the eye test says we're not on that level yet.
November 15th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
Yeah, I'm sure you thought the same thing about OSU last year when they were on their 3rd string QB.
It takes a special kind of loser to want to miss the college football playoff. Quit drinking and go to bed.
November 15th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^
You need glasses or a different glass. More than half the teams above Michigan right now in ranking look beatable. And Alabama is beatable also this year. Their signature win against LSU does not seem to be very good now. You don't know what M is capable of. They were winning with Defense, but in the last few games, they are winning with Offense. Who am I to say that they won't put it all together.
November 15th, 2015 at 9:05 PM ^
What is this objectivity you speak of? You do realize Alabama lost a game to a mediocre Ole Miss team? And yes, it was fluky, but flukes happen. I don't think Michigan is better than Alabama, but who knows what would happen. Just a couple of big plays like Peppers returns a kickoff, Bama's QB throws a couple of picks, and we'd be right there.
Tired of hearing people here act like losing a college football game is a matter of mathematical certainty.
November 16th, 2015 at 1:15 AM ^
I want the CFP and believe if we are there then we are one of the best four teams. I'd like to see what happens.
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
I always want to play the best team possible at the end of the year. Making the CFP this year would be incredible.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
I bet you wouldn't bang Jennifer Anniston either if given the opportunity. Too old and fat.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:51 PM ^
I'm 30 and 210lbs. I'm a little soft but I wouldn't say I'm fat. Back squat 365, Deadlift 455, Clean and Jerk 275. Your words are hurtful.
November 15th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
Seriously. I can't even believe there a losers out there who think like that and then turn around and call themselves Michigan fans. Just straight up stupidity.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^
Do you objectively think we can hang with Alabama or Clemson? I don't see the point in going into a game and getting smoked in the first round. What fun is that? I guess you can give me the "any given saturday" (or whatever day that game would be played) but I don't see it
Sure, I want Michigan in the CFP but looking at it objectively, I don't see how we can hang around with the top 4 and wouldn't want to get embarressed.
November 15th, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^
Yes, I do. Now stop being a baby back bitch.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
I am glad it is not up to you to decide that. You cannot shy away from a challenge even if it looks insurmountable. Not with Harbaugh at the helm
November 15th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^
If Mone comes back and is playing at Glasgow's level, I have a different mindset. The d-line is what was making this defense work and without that, I don't see us having a great shot in those high profile games.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
Yes, I will indeed call you crazy.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^
if we beat PSU, OSU and Iowa, we're good enough for the playoffs. Whether I believe that will happen is an entirely different story.
November 15th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
I do not think it is time yet for Michigan to be in the CFP. If we win the B1G championship, the B1G will be left out of the CFP. No 2 loss team is going. Honestly, I think if this team were to make the CFP it would be like Notre Dame in the Championship a few years ago.
I love this team and instead of focusing on the CFP I have chosen to enjoy every game instead of getting hung up on what-if's.
November 15th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
Another loser that doesn't belong here.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
I guess if you never really played a lot of team sport you wouldn't know that things are usually quite fluid. For example, the fact that our D wasn't great this week by no means is going to affect how our D plays next week. If anything I think you will be under the microscope and really coached up. I expect them to play much better vs psu. I mean it's not like we won't from one of the best D's to crap in one week. We are a good tram, and things happen; different match ups, being on the road, poor communication, fatigue..adjusting to Glasglow being out ect...Things happen, and a lot of the time you just need to get through some games, and the ability of you offense to step up and win us the game gives me hope. That means that we can win multiple ways and we don't quit. I hope this win is a wake up call and brings the team together heading into the final weeks of the season.