CFP possible scenarios for Michigan to get in

THERE'S A CHANCE?!?!?!

The fact that we are even discussing this is amazing. Last year at this time, we were fighting for bowl elgibility and losing to Maryland.

I'd be perfectly content with ending the year ensuring OSU misses out on a repeat, winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl.

I don't think enough chaos will occur to get a 2-loss team into the playoff. And even if it did, are we ready to compete with the likes of Alabama and win? My gut says no.

Does them winning the B1G championship ultimately doom the conference from having a team represented? Our logic makes the assumption that the Playoff Committee would rank a 2-loss & B1G Champion Michigan over a 1-loss & defending National Champion Ohio State. Do we know this for certain? If so, then the B1G may very well be left out.

If both Michigan and Utah have 2 losses and are conference champs, Utah most likely will still be ahead of us. It's a great feeling when not making the playoffs is a disappointment. Honestly, I just want to beat OSU. I hate them with a passion. Hate their fans and hate the color red.

You know, we all hate sports cliches. But this year, I am 100% fine with the "one game at a time" mantra. Michigan has been bad for quite a while. Realistically, we really lucked out that one 11 - 2 year when Hoke started. You can't predict fumble recovers.

I want to see the team focus on stopping Indiana's offense. I feel like the defense has been just slightly suspect, with Glasgow dinged, and with the dropoff in CB after Lewis. I'd like to see the DL get pressure and the secondary really shut down Indiana's receivers. Oh, and the LB corps not get exposed.

I'm sick and tired of PSU, and want to see Michigan destroy them. Want to see our lines really take over.

And then, Ohio State. I'd like to see our OL stop Bosa. I'd like to see Rudock really succeed over the top with long passes. I consider it very encouraging that Rudock completed passes to 10 different receivers against Rutgers. But I'd really like to also see Peppers unleashed on the offensive side.

We need to destroy Iowa, if only to mock their decision to let Rudock walk. Talk about a game with motivation. And he knows their defense well.

Having done that, I want the Rose Bowl. Go ahead and downvote me, but I don't want the CFP this year. I just don't. I love the Rose Bowl. I don't think we are quite good enough to win it all. I think not making it this year would give the team something to really strive for next year. I'd love to destroy an opponent there, rather than listening to talking heads debating whether Michigan "deserved" a playoff spot. Prove you deserve it by winning out. Have a chip on your shoulder. Clean up in recruiting.

Next year, with O'Korn, all of our receivers returning, and adding 2 - 3 more (Pie Young? Crawford? Nauta?) in addition to the current commits (Hawkins, Mitchell, McKeon), we'd see a dogfight, and hopefully a real number one receiver would emerge. Also, possibly adding Gary at SDE and Walker at RB would possibly put new guys on the field right away.

12 - 2 record with a win in the Rose Bowl? I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams would have expected that. And I don't feel like that is "settling" for second best. Do that, and Harbaugh wins some serious coaching awards.

osu has to beat cook first.

WHY the NCAA feels a Monday night is the best time for the championship game.  I understand the basketball reasoning.....packaging the Final Four on Saturday and championship on Monday.  But Football???  Sure the NFL has playoffs going on, but can't we do a Friday night instead?  Anyone know the reasoning?

Assume Clemson and SEC champ are in.  For Michigan to get in your scenario seems right in that Michigan needs to win out, preferable against undefeated OSU and Iowa squads.  For SOS it is probably helpful if BYU, NW and MSU win out (except MSU v. OSU).  

That leaves one spot for someone from group a (Big 12) or group b (ND, Stanford or Utah)  

If one of the teams from group b doesn't end up with two losses, one of them would likely go.  The best team from that group to end up with only 1 loss might be Utah, because that would help Michigan's SOS.   In that scenario you need chaos in Big 12 so Michigan is selected above any B1G 12 team.

If one of the group a Big 12 teams ends up being selected, then all of the group b teams need two losses.  The scenario laid by the OP is the most likely way for that to happen. 

I don't think you necessarily need both chaos in the Big 12 and group b teams to have two losses, but a little insurance wouldn't hurt.

I don't know. I just don't see it happening. I'd love a trip to the CFP, but I'll be happy if they win out and go to the Rose Bowl. In fact, I'll be happy even if they don't. They've exceeded my expectations so far, so I'm just excited to see how it plays out.

Other than the joy of a notre dame loss, I don't get why they have to lose to Stanford. That's always like the second thing brought up. Basically there are 5 conferences plus notre dame in contention. That game is like a de facto decision for the pac 12/ND, unless Utah wins out, but I don't see them beating Stanford in the championship game anyway.

A 2-loss Stanford champ is not getting in over a 2-loss Michigan champ that just rolled through two top 5 teams.

That and a big 12 implosion would all but guarantee it. You'd have SEC, ACC, B1G and ND with the pac12 and big12 left out, or switch ND and Stanford. It's really not that far fetched nor any more complicated. Of course, far more complicated scenarios are possible and would work too, but I think the straightest line is Win, Big12 implosion, Stanford champ (regardless of ND).

Local sports radio out here in Las Vegas was talking Michigan up yesterday during the 11a to 2p show. The host said Ohio St. Is going to beat MSU, and he is 100% convinced Michigan is winning out, beating Ohio St. In the finale and Iowa in the B10CG. He said it would be pretty difficult to leave Michigan out after beating undefeated Ohio St and ranked 3 or so, and then Undefeated Iowa probably ranked around 3 or so after Ohio St. falls. He said the State game was obviously a fluke loss and if Michigan played Utah today, they would win. It was just good to hear Michigan getting that national attention and people actually believing in the team. The host is a guy from Wisconsin so he knows the Midwest pretty well. He was getting me pumped up thinking of the possibilities on my drive home from work.

.....would the CFP commitee be afraid to put a 2 loss UofMich in?

 

Not if :

1) Clemsoning!

2) 2 loss B12 "Champ"

3) 2 loss P12 Champ

Chaos for the win!