Degenerates Thursday: CFB Betting Thread Week 6
It's been a banner couple weeks for me going undefeated two Saturdays in a row. 7-0 last week was an awesome bonus to the Michigan win. In addition to Cincy (Home Dog On a Thursday Night®), Purdue, Northwestern, and Alabama all easily covering as my picks on MGoBlog last week, I broke my personal rule of not betting on Michigan because the line was too juicy. Took Michigan -14.5 and under 43, again an easy cover on both. I also stole a pick from the We Are So Good at Football Podcast, which I'd highly reccommend to any Michigan fan interested in cfb betting, and grabbed San Jose State covering +20 at Auburn. Auburn isn't very good this year.
Given my past two weeks of unprecedented success, it sounds like it's about time to regress to the mean. The only way to do that is to bet on more college football games, so here's the picks I like this week:
Georgia -3 at Tennessee: Poor Butch Jones. After all the heartbreak and mismanaged clocks, he gets a pissed off Georgia team that clearly outclasses Tennessee in talent. The Vols fanbase has essentially turned against them at this point a la 2014 Michigan, and Georgia, right or wrong, probably feels like they're not quite out of playoff contention yet. They'll run it up at Rocky Top.
Utah -7.5 vs. Cal: Despite the national praise that the Fightin' Jared Goff's have received so far this year, they haven't actually looked particularly impressive in any of their five wins, eeking out their last two by under a score against UDub and Wazzu (who both are pretty bad). Speaking of Wazzu, if you haven't yet read about how Mike Leach keeps a Viking Axe in his bedroom for self defense, ya know, read about it. Anyways, at night in SLC the Utes roll here.
UNDER 54.5 Indiana at Penn State: Penn State got outgained in a 20-14 win over Army last week. Army. Indiana doesn't know who their QB or RB will be and they're due for a letdown game in a sleepy noon kick on ESPN2 with a weather forcast in the 50's. Just book the under here, they won't come close.
UNDER 44 Illinois at Iowa: You know one of these teams is probably going to end up in the single digits. Iowa is overrated in a brutally bad B1GW, and Illinois isn't going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. Again, do you really think a 30-20 game is even possible here? I don't, and once you're a TD under that the under hits here. This isn't looking like it'll be a pretty game.
That's what I'm taking this week unless Michigan gets bet down to under 7 because the advanced stats love us in this one.
Who ya got for week 6?
October 8th, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
Michigan will expose NW and win by 21.
Georgia only gets 3? Take that all day.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^
I hope you're right about Michigan winning by more than fourteen, but don't think it will happen. Michigan will win, but I have a feeling it will be by ten or less.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:25 AM ^
That was last week when I got Michigan -14.5 against Maryland. Michigan is currently favored by 7.5 vs. Northwestern. If the line moves within a TD I think I'll take us on that as well.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
Ah, my bad. I thought maybe you increased the line when betting, which some of my friends do. I did know that UM is favored by 7.5 or 8, though.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
With all this "defensive battle" talk, I would not be surprised to see that line drop to 6.5 as money moves towards Northwestern. Hate to bet on Michigan, but they will cover that and more - smart move.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
Really enjoy reading them. Between you and JamieMac I almost feel like I could make a few bucks each week betting.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
thoughts on Tenn/Geo. I think Tenn. wins that outright
October 8th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^
DeBord will make sure that doesn't happen.
October 8th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
That's the frustrating thing about DeBord though--when faced with an opponent of equal or better talent, the game plan is usually well-conceived. That's why UGA/Tenn scares me.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
They also completely dismantled a very good Ole Miss team. This game does feel like it may be a letdown game for UF having to go to MIzzou at night following two big wins, however I think UF has validated that they're a very solid team. If they get upset, which very well may happen, I'd look at it more as a letdown than Florida being exposed as fraudulent.
October 8th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
Florida just spanked Ole Miss. Also, Mizzou outgained Arkansas State 282-217 and mighty UCONN 270-233, both very close, ugly wins. Meanwhile Kentucky, who is also pretty bad this year, outgained Mizzou 368-339 and beat them. If you watch Missouri's offense you will see they are truly bad this year.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
Two straight weeks undefeated? That's bettor HOF material right there my friend. You've won me over.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
Well it's been a nice run but it can't last long (I think?). Tread carefully out there.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
Kansas State (+9) against TCU at home. I'm hopeful KSU's D can slow the Frogs down a tad.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
Hint: They can't.
K State has given up 33 and 36 to La Tech and Ok State in back to back weeks, and gave up 41 to the Frogs last year. They don't have nearly enough offense to keep up with TCU.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
So, the line predictions for the two Big Ten games if you used Sagarin would be this
PSU-Indiana - (73.45-70.13)+2.71 = 6.03 in favor of Penn State
Iowa-Illinois - (82.74-74.66)+2.71 = 10.79 in favor of Iowa
The first one agrees with the predicted score of 30-24 for that game via Massey, but Massey then has Illinois as having only a 16% estimated win probability in this game, with a 31-17 predicted score. That sort of feels right for that one actually. Might just be me.
October 8th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
My Picks do what you will with the
Cal +7.5
Mich-7.5
UCONN
USC OVER
Ball State +10
NFL
CLE +6.5
WASH +7.5
CHI +9
DET +3
OAK +6
NE -9
Cinci -1
Do with it what you will but thats Jimbos picks
October 8th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
Where in hell are the Bengals -1? I took it at -2.5 and now it's up to -3.
October 8th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
Just think - if you had parlayed those, you would never have to work again.
October 8th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
I'm liking Alabama -16.5 over Arkansas at home.
I think Sparty steamrolls @ Rutgers (-14.5) even though msu is 0-5 ats this year.
I like:
Utah -7
Georgia -3 on the road
Toledo at home -15 over Kent State
I'm even leaning towards throwing some money at Baylor and Ole Miss giving big points (44 and 43, respectively). I normally stay away from large spreads like this
October 8th, 2015 at 1:51 PM ^
Undedeated two weeks in a row is incredible, and 7-0 on one day is close to impossible.
I like your Georgia and Utah picks as well, especially the Georgia pick which i would play heavy if I was betting. (Though I thought Alabama against Ole Miss was heavy play, and that did not work out too well. Lol)
I am not a big fan of over/unders, but I think your reasoning in both of these is sound as well. Good luck!
October 8th, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^
How about the chances of Baylor covering the over/under in their game versus Kansas by themselves. Last check, the over/under was 76.5 and Kansas was going to play their 3rd string QB. I don't see how Baylor wouldn't cover the spread of 45, but also get awfully close to covering the over by themselves.
October 8th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^
No clue man, I don't really bet much on basketball.
October 8th, 2015 at 3:13 PM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^
Bama is bad against the spread at home. I'm not one to bet on Bert, but Arkansas has been in every game they've played and Bama is coming off a big win. Wouldn't be surprised to see them win by 10-14 and have the Razorbacks cover.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
Alllllll dogs this week for me:
SMU +25.5: They can score and Houston isn't that dominant to deserve this line.
K State +10: Traditional ATS safe pick, at home, TCU struggles against lesser opponents.
Navy +14.5: Navy is very good this year, and always plays ND super tough.
Indiana +8: Penn State is garbage. Indiana took OSU down to the wire, and plays B1G teams very close
OK State +7: WVU's QB is garbage, and OSU's D-Line is arguably better than Oklahoma's. WVU no quality wins thus far either, I don't see them doing it any time soon after watching last week's pathetic showing vs Oklahoma.
Maryland +33: They held us to a super low score until the 2nd half and still was a low-scoring affair relatively (don't blame that on the weather). OSU has yet to prove they can put away lesser opponents, and I keep laughing at them.
October 9th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
TX +16.5 Oklahoma: public is all over OU. but its a huge rivalry game and tx has played some teams close before tcu. plus, tx has just seem a similar offense and strong is on the ropes. toss in ou's penchant for inconsisten play under Stoops and there are a lot of factors to grab a ton of points.