Dare I ponder the impossible...winning out?
To celebrate Coach Hoke's birthday, I'd like to ponder the most homerish, positive outlook for the remainder of the season.
What if we won out, including a bowl game? I realize it's pie in the sky and I'm punch drunk from watching a Michigan running back actually, you know....RUN. But what if we found the missing piece with Drake, other players got healthy, and we built on Saturday's game to take a 3 game win streak into the Shoe?
What if the unthinkable happened and we beat Oiho St, won our bowl game, and finished 8-5?
Does Hoke & staff come back in 2015?
EDIT: Because there seems to be some confusion, the question is IF we win out. Consider it a hypothetical, if you will.
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:27 AM ^
Yes there is, because a competent AD would look at the last 4 years, and how it took the coach to be on life support for the last 4 games of his 4th season to pull off some miraculous turn around.
Regardless of what happens in the last 3 games, this year has been a disaster and this team and program are dysfunctional. Add in the fact that you either have to fire him or extend him, and the decision becomes pretty clear.
The only thing that saves Hoke at this point is if the new AD gets clear signs from all of the top candidates that they aren't coming here, and the candidate pool dries up.
November 3rd, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
Year 1 was great, all systems go
Year 2 ran into a buzzsaw against 3 Top 5 teams and lost the starting QB (and an all time offensive weapon) on the road at Nebraska, getting bit by a lack of QB depth
Year 3 was a tire fire, forseeable due to Oline depth chart but beyond expectations. Ended in close loss to nationally ranked rival on a failed 2 pt conversion attempt
Year 4 was digging out of depths of Year 3 while installing a new offense and defense. Bottomed out in an embarassing home loss to Minnesota, climbed back to respectability against Rutgers and was outlcassed against MSU. Turned it around at Homecoming and (hypothetically) won out setting up a team with strong potential for 2015.
OR
everyone's mad at Hoke in year 4 while he's operating under a microscope, let's pull the plug to satisfy the fanbase and let someone else have a shot with his guys because we've got a shot at brinigng in a credible coach with an established track record in college and pro football that has strong Michigan ties.
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
Wow, you must be in sales. What I see is that as more and more of Hoke's hand-picked recruits are put onto the field, Michigan loses more and more games. Respectability against Rutgers? Since that game, Rutgers has been outscored 135-41 against the only "respectable" teams they have played this year. We're still their only conference win.
Maybe if this teams goes on a tear and dominates over the next four games we can talk about Hoke "turning it around" in year 4. But more likely, if they are going to win out, the games are going to look more like PSU than Indiana. Is that enough improvement to warrant 4 more years of Hoke?
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^
Sigh.
If we win the next three games by 30+ pts and Drake Johnson runs for 200+ yards a game and we beat a good team in the bowl game by 50+ points while not allowing a point the rest of the season then yes, Brady Hoke will keep his job.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:56 AM ^
I'd almost argue if Drake Johnson gets 200+ yards a game from here on out that it would signify that the coaches NEED to be replaced. They've had DJ all season and it took injuries to the top 2 RBs on the depth chart to "see" his potential. So if that's the case, clearly the coaches are not doing their jobs properly.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
I very much hope, of course, Michigan does win out...................but it just isn't going to happen. So, no point in even speculating on Hoke's fate on something whose possibility is essentially nil.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
The question is IF they won out....
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^
Might as well ask "IF Urban Meyer took over the team for the rest of the year..."
November 3rd, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
to impossible scenarios. If they won out, there are still some questions to answer. Why are they getting worse year to year? Why were they so god awful the first half of the season? Do you make long term decisions based on a few games? I think you could make an argument for Hoke staying if he won out and every attractive candidate to replace him turned us down. Even then, I think it's a weak argument and he's still gone.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:52 AM ^
Dear lord it's been 20 years...
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
"COLUMBUS, Ohio (Ticker) -- Michigan remains John Cooper's personal waterloo.
Drew Henson threw three touchdown passes and ran for another as 18th-ranked Michigan built a 19-point lead and held on for a 38-26 victory over 12th-ranked Ohio State in the annual Big Ten Conference grudge match.
Cooper dropped to 2-10-1 against the Wolverines (8-3, 6-2 Big Ten) as Ohio State coach. He has come under pressure for his inability to beat the Buckeyes' archrival and a questionable decision late in the fourth quarter will again put him on the hot seat."
Good times.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^
Yeah, I was at this game. Pretty much cemented everything I hated about OSU. Six of us in head-to-toe Maize and Blue:
* Full beer bottles thrown at us? Check. (For the record, that hurts like crazy)
* Obnoxious comments? Check. ("I didn't know they let white people into U of M." This was at the apex of the affirmation action debate.)
* Getting tear gassed? Check. (We went out after the game and the Buckeyes were burning stuff, flipping cars, etc, and some tear gus wafted over our way. Also, a porch collapsed at a party we were at -- thankfully no serious injuries.)
* One of my favorite UM football memories? Check. We sang the "It's great... to be... a Michigan Wolverine" chant the whole way out of the stadium. Glorious.
The crazy part was that two years later, when we returned and got beat, we still got tear gassed. Win or lose, those guys just wanted to riot.
November 3rd, 2014 at 8:10 PM ^
I really loved the Bruce and Cooper years at OSU.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^
The question is IF they win out...
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
trying to convince people this is a hypothetical. I have these kind of conversations with my wife all the time.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
It's a simple "what if" on an internet message board. We're not deciding on purchasing a new car or saving for retirement. Sheesh.
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^
Oh, puleeze...we just got a Macy's account approved and now we can purchase a new car or save for retirement?
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:30 PM ^
this is Michgan football fergodsakes, much more important than a new car or saving for retirement.
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
It's not cheating on your girlfriend if you put peanut butter on your testicles and let your dog lick it off.....because, you know, it's your dog.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
have a very well trained dog, because I would NEVER do that with my dog, cheating or not.
November 3rd, 2014 at 8:11 PM ^
no less.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
If we win out, all that will mean is Ohio State is ridiculously overrated, and whoever we play in a bowl sucks. Beating Indiana is meaningless, since they suck. Northwestern definitely sucks, and Maryland probably does, too.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
but ohio is going to beat us handily, I'm afraid.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
Quit drinking and go to bed.
/Brandoned
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
this goes here:
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
We're Michigan fans, we should all be expecting Hoke and Co. to be retained another year. Prepare for the worst.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
...purchase your shirt here:
http://mgoblogstore.com/collections/frontpage/products/love-to-hate-navy
Not exactly the sentiment you express, but they are close cousins...
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
That said, many who are calling for him to be fired have already made up their minds and will use the turnaround to confirm the decision they've already made - "can't evaluate talent - why wasn't Drake given more touches against ND," etc
The adjustments to a new a offense and defense were vastly underrated by many fans (i.e. "it's year four, we shouldn't be struggling" as opposed to "it's year 1 with offensive and defensive systems") and were further compounded by graduating leadership the past 2 years (Kovacs, Denard, Gallon, etc) and injuries (Funchess, Taylor, Peppers, Morgan, Kalis, Pipkins, etc. Yes these are all things other programs deal with (sometimes seeming to not struggle at all and other times struggling mightily and publicly) but they're still a highly contextualized reality the team is dealing with and facing.
Progress over the course of the season (especially progress that looks like running the table) is what I'm looking for re: my insignificant and powerlesss opinion on whether Hoke and co. should be retained
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^
I don't think the Big Ten title game is happening, man.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:56 AM ^
Weellll..I think this team can still win the championship..I really do.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
We could shut down the Patriots.
November 3rd, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
I just went off the OP's original numbers before the correction and didn't catch it.
We ain't come here to play math!
November 3rd, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
will have beaten is OSU. I mean Michigan got hammered by its two rivals, beaten at home in a trophy game by Minnesota in a game most remembered for reinserting a helpless Shane Morris in a situation he should never have even faced because of his poor start.
This team hasn't shown the ability to beat anyone outside its weight class. And I don't really count Northwestern with a hamstrung offense in its class, but facing the Wildcats on the road equalizes the challenge for this team. Beating Maryland which has a decent offense would be a bigger deal and knocking off Ohio would be incredible.
The only way I would keep Hoke on if the team won out is if you couldn't get Harbaugh or an equivalent replacement. But if that happened, there would be fanbase and ticket-buying consequences in all likliehood.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^
But when do they excuses end? Next year it'll be because we lost our #1 receiver and graduated our starting QB and MLB. And then after that, it'll be the DBs and Dline graduating. Most elite (or even good) programs can tough through it. But for some reason that causes us to be damn near the bottom in offense for two straight years. OSU lost their entire offensive line, their Heisman trophy candidate QB right before the season start and their bellcow RB, yet they don't seem to be having any trouble. Its excuse after excuse after excuse here.
Four years in and we have one win against MSU and one win against OSU. Can't win on the road. Have a few embarrassing losses on our resume. Being the lessor teams and winning one good game is a far cry from a turnaround. The fact that beating Indiana and NW and Maryland would be considered a turnaround shows have far we have fallen. Games that we should win 90% of the time are our new measuring stick, not the "red letter" games.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^
Till Northwestern gives us all we can handle and more on the road. Then OSU bum rushes us. It's more likely I win 10 million dollars today. I'd take about 3 xanax call over some ladies, get lots of booze and be in bed for the next month, at least.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
Well, it's definitely not impossible. Actually, I was just updating the probability matrix for the remaining games with Massey's new numbers and here's how we look now:
Bowl eligibility (2 or 3 of the next 3) - 26.65% estimated
Winning out - 2.48%
2 of the next 3 games - 24.17%
One more game - 47.21%
We're a 4-8 team now - 26.14%
If we won out, of course, I think the prospects of wholesale change among the staff (i.e., Hoke goes) diminish considerably, although I wouldn't necessarily rule it out with the AD change.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:07 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^
Winning out - 2.48%
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:48 AM ^
you stated
"But what if we found the missing piece with Drake"
My question would be, Why did it take so long for someone on the staff to recognize what Drake would bring to the offense? or did they recognize it at all? Drake was in there only because of injuries.