Pre-B1G Tourney Bracketology
The brackets as they relate to Michigan are unlikely to change between now and when we play, so now’s a good time to look at precisely where we stand in Bracketology.
1. Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/. We’re a 2 seed, but 7 on the S-Curve, meaning that to the Bracket Matrix we could get passed if Duke or Virginia look particularly impressive in the ACC tournament, or could fall back if we have an unimpressive performance. FSU is the 5th out on Bracket Matrix; they could help us in several ways if they make a deep run in the ACC tournament. Often when looking at the Bracket Matrix I try to spot trends, such as whether brackets that have updated most recently take an easily identifiably different approach than those updated less recently. However, if we limited the brackets in Bracket Matrix to only those that updated in the last two days, our spot would not change.
2. Lundradri: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology. This is about the time that Lnuardi becomes more accurate because he starts to receive tidbits from committee members and former committee members. We’re a 2 seed in his bracket, but number 5 on the S-curve: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty. That’s more favorable than Bracket Matrix.
3. Jerry Palm: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology. 2 seed, no S-curve provided. His bracket would be an amazing draw for Michigan.
I previously have examined only those three indicators, but as we get close to Selection Sunday, let’s take a look at a few more sources.
4. Crashing the Dance: http://crashingthedance.com/seed.php. 6 on the S-Curve, but just a few decimals ahead of Cuse. Essentially the same position as on the Bracket Matrix, but CtD isn’t worried about UVa passing us from the ACC, just Duke. Ctd also has Wisconsin behind, not in front, of us.
5. Yahoo!: http://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/. 5 on his S-curve.
6. USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/09/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/6228743/. USA Today has done very well in the Bracket Matrix rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html. We’re a 2 seed there as well, but no S-curve is provided.
7. Our Best Buddy Drew: http://drewsbracketology.blogspot.com/. Drew, a noted Michigan/B1G/self hater now has us as a 3 seed, but number 12 on his S-curve. Clever move by Drew, because the Bracket Matrix doesn't look at an S-curve in its rankings, just seed. So in the event that we get a 2 seed, he'd be off by only one seed, which is isn't too bad for Bracket Matrix rankingspurposes. Still, his other seeds are just plain dumb and you are invited to tell him as much.
The upshot of all of these is that we currently are a 2 seed, which you already knew. But in reviewing these brackets, it’s become clear to me that our 2 seed status isn’t as secure as I thought it was. One of Duke, Virginia and Syracuse is likely to win the ACC tournament and that team could pass us unless we make the B1G tournament finals. The question is where we are on the S-Curve. If we’re number 7 or 8, anything short of a B1G finals appearance likely means a 3 seed because we'd be passed by Duke and/or Cuse and/or UVa. If we’re 5 or 6, we probably need to win only one game, provided that we don’t have a bad loss in the semifinals.
Why would anyone dislike Joe Lundradiariaaisrari?
March 12th, 2014 at 11:12 PM ^
He's obviously a member of the Illuminardi.
Apparently it's geography first while shading the overall rankings of the 2/3/4 seeds in each region to the 1 seed. So the #1 overall should have the overall worst group of 2/3/4, ideally.
March 12th, 2014 at 10:09 PM ^
The overall No.1 seed gets the "weakest" 2-seed, the weakest 4-seed, the weakest 6 and 8-seed. They/it also gets the strongest 3-seed, for what it's worth. Below is correct and easier to see, likely, than how I'm essplainin' it, especially in saying how it's a snake order seeding.
I initially had something else typed but now see what you mean. It really does get pretty close in preferences at the weakest 2-seed - strongest 3-seed area....and if you give a mouse a cookie...
You get half credit. The reason it is called an S-curve is because of how the ranked teams snake back and forth. Like this:
Seed | Region A | Region B | Region C | Region D |
1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
3 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
4 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
5 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
6 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 |
7 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
8 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 |
9 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
10 | 40 | 39 | 38 | 37 |
11 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 |
12 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 |
13 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 |
14 | 56 | 55 | 54 | 53 |
15 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 |
16 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 61 |
Palm's bracket is great until Arizona in Anaheim, which is by far the hardest of the four for Michigan fans to get to. I'm hoping for MSG with Nova as our one seed, frankly.
you don't want Nova because to get to Nova you have to go through Louisville, which is a better team than Nova.
March 12th, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^
Do not under estimate the M presence in California and our inability to see Michigan play live sports conveniently. If we play in Anaheim, that place will be packed with Michigan fans, this I promise you.
The committee has stated *many* times recently that they do not consider conference placing, nor do they consider conference RPI in their seeding decisions. The fact that we won the conference, or that we won it by 3 games, makes no difference in the committee's eyes, which I believe is fair on their part because of how unbalanced conference schedules can be these days. Regardless if you disagree with this or not, the argument needs to stop being made here and elsewhere because we know definitively that the committee does not consider it.
We deserve a 2 seed, don't get me a wrong, but it is NOT because we won the Big Ten by 3 games. It's because we beat Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all on the road, among other reasons.
Either Michigan or Wisconsin is definitely going to get a 2-seed no matter what happens in the Big Ten tourney. Michigan is in better shape at the moment. If Duke or Wisconsin eat it right out of the conference tourney gate, we are locked in at a 2-seed. Easy as that.
March 12th, 2014 at 10:49 PM ^
We would love the ACC tourney to be batshit crazy and have the top teams lose early.
March 13th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
...everyone here, without exception, seems to want to avoid Florida. I think they're easily the weakest of the four 1-seeds and I'd love to land in the south.
I guess we'll find out who's right soon enough.
Michigan as the 2-seed with Witchita ST or Villanova as the 1-seed, coupled with Cinci as the 3-seed = drooling all over my bracket.
I can see virtually the same route on Lunardi bracket, only Kansas is there and not UM. I WANT THAT REGION.
I think we are 6th on the S-Curve. I guess we could be flip flopped with Wisconsin for 7 but that will all resolve after the BTT. 6th or 5th though would put (most likely) in regions with Nova and WSU as the 1 seed. I think that is why this BTT is so important. While I beleive 1 win gives us a 90% chance of a 2 seed, and that 2 wins gives us a lock, winning the BTT would for sure put us in that 5 or 6 spots on the S-curve and give us a punchers chance at the last 1 if Nova loses early.
March 12th, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^
March 12th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
I tend to think if we had that Arizona win we're a 1. Seems to me the marquee win would/should be more important than a bad loss with mitigating circumstances.
Really agree. The only thing holding this team back (in terms of seeding) is the lack of a big non-conference win. If they had been able to beat Iowa State, Duke, or Arizona I think it would be very hard to make an argument against them being a 1-seed. It's truly disappointing because anyone who has been watching can tell this team is worlds apart from where they were at the beginning of the year.
March 12th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
just wait until charlotte takes the ConfUSA crown.
March 12th, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^
We need to make it to the BTT finals to get a 2-seed, I still believe that. If we have an early exit, it will be a loss to someone not named Wisconsin or MSU, and we will get docked a decent amount for that. Unless every other team in that area does the same, we're a 3. BTT tourney finals or 3 seed.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:27 AM ^
I tend to agree if the ACC teams we are competing with go chalk in the ACC tourney. The BTT actually matters.
WMU vs. Michigan please no. I don't want to have to choose.
right?