Significance of winning next two games for MBB

Submitted by BlizzardOfOz on March 2nd, 2014 at 1:38 PM

Obviously we need one more win to secure the outright regular season title.

I was looking at the last two games and realized that Illinois and Indiana represent the only two teams in the conference that we have not won against this year.

I was wondering how significant it would be if we win out. How rare is it in the BIG overall and for Michigan (specifically) to beat every team within the conference in a single season.


Go Blue!!!



March 2nd, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

I can and must diagree with beat Crean > beat everyone

If we beat everyone it's because we beat Indiana PLUS we beat everyone else

So it's mathematically and logically impossible for beating Crean to be better than beating Crean PLUS everybody else.  Google "conjunctive fallacy"

Leave the fallacies for RCMB and the like


814 East U

March 2nd, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^

You clearly do not understand sarcasm or jokes. You must be a hoot at parties. I hope I never sit next to you at any Michigan sporting events. I have a feeling the convo would play out like this:

Me: dang, we never run that play effectively

you: actually, 7 years ago at 1:03pm vs. Akron we ran it for 6 yards, which is technically considered effective. You should google "effective"


March 2nd, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^

You're actually technically incorrect (the best kind of incorrect!). If beating a specific team has a negative value, it could absolutely be the case that Beat Crean > Beat Everyone. 

For example -- imagine that your second favorite B1G team is Norwestern (as it probably should be).  In that case, beating everyone would include beating Michigan. That clearly has a negative value from the point of view of a Michigan fan.   In that case, I think it would be safe to say that (Northwestern) beating Crean > (Northwestern) beating everyone.

Team 101

March 2nd, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^

We did it the last time we won the outright championship but there were two more games, two fewer teams and no Izzo, Crean or Ryan back then.  We lost to Knight (I mean Mr. Knight or Coach Knight) in the hexed Assembly Hall and at Northwestern (after travelling through a blizzard to get there)


March 2nd, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^

It's harder to do that now, but I'll guess it wasn't that uncommon back when there were only 10 teams in the conference, and each team played every other team twice.

One thing that would be more significant (other than the Big Ten title) would be a record of 15-3, which would tie for the third-best Big Ten record in Michigan history. From the record book:


March 2nd, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

Our odds of accumulating a record in our own ten best in the history of the program is fairly good, I would say, at this juncture:

(15-3) 0.65 0.84 54.60%
(14-4) 0.65 0.16 10.40%
(14-4) 0.35 0.84 29.40%
(13-5) 0.35 0.16 5.60%

The 15-3 row is our estimated shot at winning out, followed by the scenarios of beating Illinois but losing to Indiana and then vice versa. The last row is the relatively unlikely scenario of losing out. By the numbers, we've put up one of the best performances of any Michigan team almost regardless at this point. 


March 2nd, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^

That was my first year in Ann Arbor. Indiana had its usual help from the officials at Assembly Hall. I remember Penn State in particular getting some rough calls against them when they were surprisingly in the game late.


March 2nd, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^

I'd be curious to know if anyone can ever recall a team winning the Big Ten after losing their best player/top recruit for the entire Big Ten season like we did with McGary.


March 2nd, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

I think that we crush both teams. This group is unselfish and has the character to understand the inportance of it. We havent had an outright title since 1986 and frankly that stings.


March 2nd, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^

Not sure we crush Illinois. Kenpom 25 defense, at their home and our defense has the ability to make their offense and guys like Rice, Abrams, Hill and Nunn look like superstars. Still think we pull it out as our length on the perimeter and offensive firepower will be too much.

Mr. Yost

March 2nd, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^

Because this is the most ignorant statement if you actually think this.

People act like it's a sin to take their Final Four run from last year into account when talking about THIS year's team and they returned almost everyone.

Wichita State is more legitimate than ANY team in the B1G. They also may be the safest Final 4 pick in the country.

Would the be undefeated in another conference? Hell no. But is any other team undefeated in the conference?

They absolutely should be mentioned in the same breath as the best teams in the country.

This isn't football and they're not Northern Illinois.

Mr. Yost

March 2nd, 2014 at 5:33 PM ^

Michigan lost WAY more in Burke, THJ and McGary from last year and I don't hear anyone calling us overrated or a fluke.

The Shockers returned their core, many of whom were young (like Michigan), and blitzed through their regular season for the most part.

They're still playing high level basketball and they still look like the same or even better team than last year.

Again, no one is saying they're world beaters. But some of you are acting like they're terrible because of their conference.

Memphis under Cal for years ran through their awful conference and I seem to remember them having some legit teams come tourney time. UNLV back in the 90s, same thing.

Basketball is SO much different than football when it comes to this stuff and so many people can't see that. Like I said, this isn't Northern Illinois.

Now how are they going to respond in the Elite 8, Final Four when they're in a close game vs. another good team? THAT is where the weak conference season hurts them. But it doesn't make them overrated, a fluke or anything of the sort.


March 2nd, 2014 at 6:06 PM ^

I'm not saying they aren't good. I'm saying using last year's final four run to say this team is good is ridiculous. They lost 3 of their top 5 scorers. Those same 3 guys were also in the top 5 minutes played for them. They "really only lost Armstead" the same way Michigan "really only lost Burke" from last year's team.


March 2nd, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^

Wichita State went in there and won on the road. That's as good as any of our wins. I wouldn't have been at all surprised if Wichita State could have put up a 15-3 or 14-4 record in the B1G. Undefeated, no way. But I'd rather face Kansas than Wichita.


March 2nd, 2014 at 9:48 PM ^

Kansas scares me WAYYYYY more.  There is no way we can guard their bits without McGary, they score what like 60+ points in the paint against us last year and you could argue that they are BETTER inside this year and we don't have Burke to bail us out.  I want no part of Kansas and their size, bring on the Shockers or Syracuse maybe even AZ but not Kansas.


March 2nd, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^

Wichita St has an average margin of victory around 14-15 points. They haven't been sneaking by on a poor schedule.
I heard a good analogy regarding Wichita St the other day, they are similar to Indiana St but instead of one great player they have a good team. I think Indiana St faired ok back in '79 as an unknown commodity heading into the tourney.


March 2nd, 2014 at 7:02 PM ^

I don't think Indiana St was an unknown commodity heading into the tourney.  They were a #1 seed, had a first team all-american who was the 6th pick in the 1978 NBA draft but decided to come back for his last year at ISU.

Now granted the amount of media wasn't nearly as big as it is now, but it's not like ISU was a low seed who made it to the title game.

Blue Durham

March 2nd, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^

I'd like to see this team win the Big Ten Tournament.

I am pretty sure Michigan has never won both the regular season as well as the Big Ten Tournament, and I suspect that it has happened on only a few occasions (LSA usually has this kind of info at his disposal).

Winning the Big Ten tournament would also probably get Michigan a 2 seed, just about regardless of what happens the next 2 games. But winning these would likely indicate that the team is playing very well.

Perkis-Size Me

March 2nd, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^

I obviously hope that we win out, but as long as we beat that asshat Tom Crean, I will have zero complaints. I hope we take Indiana to the woodshed and beat them senseless. And while it seems likely that Indiana is not heading for the tournament at this point, I hope we get to be the team that puts the final nail in their coffin.

Magnum P.I.

March 2nd, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^

Both games will be tough. We haven't truly dominated many games this Big Ten season (sorry, Nebraska).

I'm thrilled that we're Big Ten champs, but it'd be nice to win out to make it feel extra good. Don't want to limp into the tournament.

Mr. Yost

March 2nd, 2014 at 4:06 PM ^

...we haven't put together a complete half of basketball in a long time. We've had spurts, but I'd like to see us play a complete game or even a complete half.

The only solace I get is that we really didn't play a complete half last year for 10-12 games either. In fact, it wasn't until the VCU game in the tournament where we finally started to put some things together. Then of course the Florida and Syracuse games. And even Louisville until the officials robbed us of a shot at a championship,