stephenrjking

August 15th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^

Polls remain 100% meaningless.

Something like this is a bit nice just to give everyone a baseline of expectations, allowing us to enjoy upsets more and such… but it doesn’t matter where (or if) Michigan is ranked. They will win or lose on the field. 

ShadowStorm33

August 15th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^

It's funny how things change as you get older. When I was a kid, I wanted us to be ranked as high as possible, I was always following the teams above us hoping they'd lose so we move up, etc. Now that I realize there's no real benefit (and potential downside) from being ranked high until late in the season, I want us to fly under the radar for as long as we can...

MGoBlue96

August 15th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^

OC was on staff last year so there is some continuity there and honestly the new DC wants to run a similar scheme  and the one constant under Harbaugh has been good defense under multiple DC's. It's not as big of a question mark as some people want to make it out to be honestly. It would be different if you had new coordinators implementing significantly different schemes from last year.

CLord

August 15th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^

ND will get crushed in week 1 so we'll be top 7 for the first several weeks.

Interesting the total lack of respect for Ped State.  Good I hope we crush them this year.

DavidP814

August 15th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^

Yep.  Arguing #6 vs. #8 is a crapshoot in the pre-season, but grouping the teams by tiers based on total points, the poll seems reasonable.

Tier 1: Bama/OSU/Georgia

Tier 2: Clemson/ND/Utah/A&M/Michigan

Tier 2B/3A: Oklahoma

Tier 3: Baylor/Oregon/Ok St/Mich St/USC/NC St

Tier 3B/4A: Miami

Tier 4: The rest of the Top 25.

I can buy that.  I might put Notre Dame with Oklahoma, but otherwise it's pretty good for a pre-season poll. 

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^

96 - certain teams, as we know, get th benefit of the doubt.  The Bucks are one of those teams, and the SEC is one of those conferences.

it seems like one issue in Columbus is - defensive recruiting.  The Bucks get huge talent on O, but - the level of talent, and perhaps development - does appear to be the same on the other side of the ball.  Perhaps their D “has to improve”, but - then again - wishfully thinking - perhaps they step down another wrung or two on the ladder.

I just took a quick look at 247 Sports.  In 2021, the Nucks had 15 5* players on their roster.  Ten were on offense, and five were on D.  Surprisingly, four of the five defensive 5* prospects were on their DL.

Perkis-Size Me

August 15th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^

The pollsters want A&M to be good so badly, don't they? 

Honestly, spots 4-8 are fairly interchangeable with one another. You can make arguments for each one of them to move up, down, or around one another. But the gap between them, and the 1-3 spots is enormous. Once again, its the same 2-3 teams ruling the college football landscape on a year-to-year basis. 

What I'll be curious about for the top 3 are:

1) Alabama - who are the skill position players this season? Seems like every year its a who's who and Alabama just stockpiles talent at RB and WR. I'm sure they still do, but last season was the first time I can remember since maybe Saban's first season where they didn't have a household name at RB. They had someone who was really "just a guy." By the end of the season, all their top wideouts were injured, and I think their top incoming WR for the season just fractured his foot and is out for the first 4-6 weeks of the season. Of course, they have Bryce Young and a ferocious defense led by Will Anderson, but do they have the bodies ready to bring their unstoppable offensive death machine back online? 

2) OSU - Can the defense be just good? Can it be average? Can it not crap its pants in critical games? If Knowles can answer any one of those questions with a yes, then OSU is going to be just fine. If not, they may suffer a fate similar to what they received last season. 

3) Georgia - no matter what Kirby Smart does, the defense he has this season WILL NOT be as good as it was last season. It just won't be. That was a generational defense, the quality of which you see maybe only once every 20-30 years or so. His recruiting will help make up for it and he plays in a much weaker SEC eastern division than its western counterpart, but how will Georgia fare this year without a generational defense to fall back on? Stetson Bennett will undoubtedly be asked to do more. Can he do more? No idea. They may very well drop a game in the regular season, and if they do, they're going to have to beat Alabama in the SEC title game. You never want to have to beat Alabama in order to do anything. 

 

Perkis-Size Me

August 15th, 2022 at 3:21 PM ^

Its solely because its OSU, and whether we like it or not they're going to be given the benefit of the doubt because of their brand, their run of success (only two seasons in the last 20 years with less than 10 wins), and the fact that they recruit head and shoulders above everyone else in their conference. It's not really that close. 

It's based on the reasonable assumption that "if they can just bring in a good DC, pair him with all of that elite talent, they'll be good to go." OSU went out and bought arguably one of the 3-5 best DCs in America last year. People, like me, are also assuming if Knowles can get that defense to be even just average, that is enough to get them over the top. All he needs to do is not have his defense screw up so bad that it negates an otherworldly offense. 

Venom7541

August 15th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^

I really wish we would add some form of computer rankings to CFP equation. Solely based on people is to susceptible to perception based on past given more credit than deserved. Being solely based on computers like the early days of the BCS leads to passing teams that clearly were the better team but number anomalies lead to lesser teams going higher.

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^

Venom, a computer ranking is completely dependent on the algorithm.  I think it should be - and should have been - pretty simple.

This applies for both the BCS and CFP.   If you’re a member of a conference - you must be your conference’s champion to be selected / invited to participate.

People will say - “Oh, a four loss team from the other division got lucky.”   To which I reply - “win the game, be your conference champion.”

Should teams be selected because of their on the field performance - or, is it a beauty pageant?  IMO, it’s been a beauty pageant since the BCS started.

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^

Venom.  Getting the rest of the world to think that way.. oh my… a lifetime is too short.

I would have loved to see an 8 team playoff.  The Power Five conference champs - are auto bids - period.  Then perhaps, one Group of Five conference champ - selected by the Committee - and two At-Large teams, also selected by the Committee.

I think ND should “play through” the ACC - and, if appropriate - compete / play in the ACC CCG.

The Committee’s decisions have devalued conference championships since the start.

greymarch

August 15th, 2022 at 1:53 PM ^

UM deserves better than #8. Coaches poll (for once) has it correct at #6. Unofficially, UM is #7 in the AP, bc OSU plays ND first game of the season. Whichever team loses will certainly drop below UM in the AP and Coaches poll. #GoBlue

Richard75

August 16th, 2022 at 1:09 AM ^

Interesting question. Clemson only fell from 3rd to 6th after last year’s centerpiece opener (against Georgia)  But then, OSU fell from 3rd to 9th after losing to Oregon (which, granted, was ranked a little lower at 12th). OSU went on to fall to 11th over the next two weeks despite two blowouts.

My guess is OSU would indeed fall quite a ways. They’re a 2 TD favorite at home; a loss would mean they came up well short of expectation. That’s different than Clemson-Georgia, a neutral-site game that was expected to be close and was.

Put another way: How can you lose as a 2 TD home favorite and only drop 3 or 4 spots? Doesn’t that by definition mean your ranking needs a major rethinking?

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^

The first four teams according to the AP, are the same four teams in the 2021 Team Talent Composite by 247 Sports.  
 

The order is slightly different.  Bama, Georgia, the Bucks, and Clemson.  No surprise there.

MRunner73

August 15th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^

Just win, Baby! It took a while in 2021 because the team was unranked to start the season. Better to be a bit of an underdog in early September. The true test will be at Iowa. I can wait.

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^

Just a quick look.  There are six (6) teams from the SEC in theTop 25.  The ACC also has six (6) teams - if you include ND as an SEC team (which I did).  The B1G has four (4) teams,

Panther72

August 15th, 2022 at 5:57 PM ^

I want to see what Notre Dame will do to the OSU  D.  That will be the most interesting part of the match up week one.  Im betting the D is not 100% turned around for that game.  Then again, ND needs some O production to put the test to that unit. 

Amazinblu

August 15th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^

Panther, I expect ND will attempt to establish the ground game.  They’re breaking in a new QB and their receiving corps is depleted.

The issue here is - the Bucks should expect ND to try to run all day.  Will ND’s OL be able to create lanes with - what I assume will be - 8 or more in the box.

brad

August 15th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^

aTm wins the national championship once again for out of control preseason hype.  How are they #6 knowing what they do every single year?